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2009 Fiesta Bowl - Ohio State v. Texas Additional Information

Buckeyeskickbuttocks

Z --> Z^2 + c
Staff member
2008 Texas Longhorns Additional Information

Coaching Staff
Head Coach:
Official School Bio - Mack Brown

Assistant Coaches:
Official School Bios - Assistant Coaches
Duane Akina - Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Backs
Major Applewhite - Assistant Head Coach/Running Backs
Bruce Chambers - Recruiting Coordinator/Tight Ends
Greg Davis - Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks
Oscar Giles - Assistant Coach/Defensive Ends
Bobby Kennedy - Assistant Recruiting Coordinator/Wide Receivers
Jeff Madden - Assistant A.D. for Strength & Conditioning
Mac McWhorter - Associate Head Coach/Offensive Line
Will Muschamp - Defensive Coordinator/Linebackers
Mike Tolleson - Defensive Tackles/Special Teams Coordinator
Cleve Bryant - Associate Athletics Director for Football Operations
George Wynn - Assistant Athletics Director for Football Operations
Ken Rucker - Dir. of High School Relations and Player Development
Mike Clark - Graduate Assistant Coach
Neale Tweedie - Graduate Assistant Coach
Recruiting
Starters Returning: 11 (Offense 6, Defense 4, Special Teams 1)
Letterman Returning: 47 (Offense 25, Defense 18, Special Teams 4)
Notable Returners:
WR Quan Cosby, OG Cedric Dockery, OL Chris Hall, QB Colt McCoy, WR Jordan Shipley, OG Charlie Tanner, OT Adam Ulatoski, LB Rashard Bobino, DE Lamaar Houston, DE Aaron Lewis, DE Brian Orakpo, CB Ryan Palmer

Starters Lost: 13 (Offense 5, Defense 7, Special Teams 1)
Letterman Lost: 17
Notable Losses:
RB Jamaal Charles, TE Jermichael Finley, C Dallas Griffin, OT Tony Hills, WR Nate Jones, WR Limas Sweed, LB Scott Derry, CB Brandon Foster, S Marcus Griffin, S Erick Jackson, LB Robert Killebrew, DT Derek Lokey, DT Frank Okam

Recruiting classes:

2009 Verbals

Tariq Allen LB 6-2 231 Irving, TX
Thomas Ashcraft OL 6-5 300 Cedar Hill, TX
Eryon Barnett DB 6-3 193 Euless, TX
Marcus Davis DB 6-0 192 League City, TX
Garrett Gilbert QB 6-4 205 Austin, TX
Trey Graham TE 6-5 230 Waco, TX
Calvin Howell DT 6-4 280 San Antonio, TX
Derek Johnson DT 6-3 290 Hoxie, AR
Dominique Jones DE 6-3 230 Kilgore, TX
Paden Kelley OL 6-7 270 Austin, TX
Kyle Kriegel DE 6-5 235 Elysian Fields, TX
Barrett Matthews TE 6-2 220 Galena Park, TX
Patrick Nkwopara LB 5-11 205 Grand Prairie, TX
Alex Okafor DE 6-4 232 Pflugerville, TX
Garrett Porter OL 6-6 308 Odessa, TX
Greg Timmons WR 6-2 191 Aldine, TX
Kenny Vaccaro DB 6-1 197 Brownwood, TX
Mason Walters OL 6-6 290 Wolfforth, TX
Chris Whaley ATH 6-3 232 Madisonville, TX

Class of 2008

Emmanuel Acho LB 6-2 210 Dallas, TX
Nolan Brewster DB 6-1 195 Denver, CO
Mark Buchanan OL 6-6 275 Austin, TX
Dan Buckner WR 6-4 209 Allen, TX
Brock Fitzhenry RB 5-9 172 Giddings, TX
Blake Gideon DB 6-1 189 Leander, TX
D.J. Grant WR 6-3 205 Austin, TX
DeSean Hales RB 5-10 165 Klein, TX
[strike]Antoine Hicks ATH 6-2 193 Mansfield, TX[/strike]
Jeremy Hills RB 5-10 181 Alief, TX
Jarvis Humphrey DT 6-2 290 Cedar Hill, TX
Dravannti Johnson LB 6-2 230 Nederland, TX
D.J. Monroe DB 5-9 165 Angleton, TX
Tre Newton RB 6-0 194 Southlake, TX
Luke Poehlmann OL 6-6 260 Brenham, TX
Kheeston Randall DT 6-5 267 Beaumont, TX
Ryan Roberson RB 5-10 210 Brenham, TX
David Snow OL 6-4 300 Gilmer, TX
Justin Tucker K 6-1 172 Austin, TX
Aaron Williams DB 6-1 175 Round Rock, TX

Class of 2007

Sam Acho DE 6-2 250 Dallas, TX
Tray Allen OL 6-4 305 Grand Prairie, TX
Curtis Brown DB 6-0 174 Gilmer, TX
Russell Carter DE 6-3 230 Houston, TX
John Chiles ATH 6-1 195 Mansfield, TX
Brandon Collins WR 6-0 167 Brenham, TX
Ian Harris TE 6-3 217 San Antonio, TX
Tyrell Higgins DT 6-3 260 Schertz, TX
Kyle Hix OL 6-6 290 Aledo, TX
Ahmard Howard TE 6-4 225 Brenham, TX
Michael Huey OL 6-5 290 Kilgore, TX
Blaine Irby TE 6-2 224 Ventura, CA
Cody Johnson RB 5-10 225 Waller, TX
[strike]Andre Jones DT 6-4 305 El Paso, TX[/strike]
[strike]G.J. Kinne QB 6-2 207 Gilmer, TX[/strike]
James Kirkendoll WR 5-10 178 Round Rock, TX
Aundre McGaskey OL 6-4 290 La Marque, TX
Keenan Robinson LB 6-3 211 Plano, TX
Christian Scott DB 6-0 185 Dallas, TX
Earl Thomas ATH 5-10 174 Orange, TX
Ben Wells DB 6-1 185 Beaumont, TX
Foswhitt Whittaker RB 5-9 187 Pearland, TX
Michael Wilcoxon DT 6-2 271 Aledo, TX
Malcolm Williams WR 6-3 205 Garland, TX

Class of 2006

Ben Alexander DT 5-11 285 Anderson, SC
Deon Beasley ATH 5-10 160 Orange, TX
Chykie Brown DB 6-1 175 Houston, TX
[strike]Buck Burnette OL 6-3 290 Wimberley, TX[/strike]
Antwan Cobb RB 6-0 200 Pflugerville, TX
Dustin Earnest LB 6-3 220 Texarkana, TX
[strike]Brian Ellis DE 6-5 244 Grand Prairie, TX[/strike]
Sherrod Harris QB 6-2 206 Arlington, TX
[strike]James Henry DB 6-2 195 Schertz, TX[/strike]
Lamarr Houston DE 6-2 257 Colorado Springs, CO
Eddie Jones DE 6-3 240 Kilgore, TX
[strike]Robert Joseph DB 6-2 180 Port Arthur, TX[/strike]
Sergio Kindle LB 6-4 225 Dallas, TX
Hunter Lawrence K 6-0 180 Boerne, TX
Josh Marshall WR 6-4 205 Arlington, TX
Vondrell McGee RB 5-10 190 Longview, TX
Britt Mitchell TE 6-5 245 Kilgore, TX
Steve Moore OL 6-4 275 Houston, TX
Jared Norton LB 6-3 232 Rowlett, TX
Phillip Payne WR 6-2 201 Garland, TX
Greg Smith TE 6-5 230 Montgomery, TX
[strike]Jevan Snead QB 6-3 205 Stephenville, TX[/strike]
[strike]Roy Watts OL 6-6 300 Houston, TX[/strike]
[strike]J'Marcus Webb OL 6-8 285 Mesquite, TX[/strike]
Montre Webber WR 6-3 191 Hearne, TX

Class of 2005

[strike]Chris Brown LB 6-3 210 Texarkana, TX[/strike]
[strike]Jamaal Charles RB 6-1 185 Port Arthur, TX[/strike]
Quan Cosby ATH 5-11 200 Mart, TX
[strike]Jermichael Finley TE 6-4 210 Diboll, TX[/strike]
Trevor Gerland K 6-1 190 Katy, TX
Chris Hall OL 6-5 285 Irving, TX
[strike]Michael Houston RB 6-0 220 Denver, CO[/strike]
Aaron Lewis DE 6-3 265 Albuquerque, NM
Colt McCoy QB 6-1 180 Tuscola, TX
Henry Melton ATH 6-3 275 Grapevine, TX
Roy Miller DT 6-2 302 Killeen, TX
Roddrick Muckelroy LB 6-2 215 Hallsville, TX
Ishie Oduegwu DB 5-10 185 Denton, TX
Charlie Tanner OL 6-4 268 Austin, TX
[strike]Jerrell Wilkerson RB 5-7 170 San Antonio, TX[/strike]

Class of 2004

Rashad Bobino LB 5-9 220 La Marque, TX
[strike]Jeremy Campbell LB 6-2 215 Lake Highlands, TX[/strike]
Cedric Dockery OL 6-4 315 Garland, TX
[strike]Greg Dolan OL 6-7 275 Round Rock, TX[/strike]
[strike]Myron Hardy WR 6-3 195 Round Rock, TX[/strike]
[strike]Nathan Jones WR 6-1 180 Texarkana, TX[/strike]
[strike]Andrew Kelson DB 6-2 210 Houston, TX[/strike]
[strike]Derek Lokey DT 6-2 250 Denton, TX[/strike]
Chris Ogbonnaya WR 6-1 200 Houston, TX
[strike]Franklin Okam DT 6-5 300 Richardson, TX[/strike]
Brian Orakpo DE 6-4 220 Houston, TX
Ryan Palmer DB 5-9 165 Arlington, TX
Nic Redwine LB 6-3 215 Tyler, TX
Jordan Shipley WR 6-0 180 Burnet, TX
[strike]Bobby Tatum DB 6-1 195 Ft. Worth, TX[/strike]
[strike]Ramonce Taylor ATH 6-0 187 Belton, TX[/strike]
Adam Ulatoski OL 6-6 270 Southlake, TX
Peter Ullman TE 6-4 233 Round Rock, TX
[strike]George Walker WR 6-3 190 Houston, TX[/strike]
The Lighter Side
Evaluating a rubber match

Good fortune has smiled on Ohio State. You have no doubt heard that your Buckeyes have virtually no shot of sticking with the Longhorns on January 5. The #3 Longhorns could be... should be?.... playing for the National Title, after all, while your Buckeyes have been battered and bruised by every "big time" team they've played since the 41-14 beating at the hands of the Florida Gators. Nonetheless, this game is a bit of a godsend. Why, you ask? Because in Texas, we have the ability to manufacture a "Championship" of sorts, and this may be just what the doctor ordered. You'll recall:

Texas 25
Ohio State 22

Ohio state 24
Texas 7

All-time series tied - 1 game to 1.

Wait a minute, you say. Why, after the last two BCS Championship games would a manufactured championship be a thing favorable to Ohio State? Shouldn't we be avoiding the whole 'Championship' thing for a while. Less pressure, you know....

Well, no. And here's why.... In 2006 Florida had the 10th best defense in the country, while Ohio State was scoring at will against about everyone. Florida won the Championship. In 2007, the Buckeyes faced off against the number 3 rated defense in the land and were stopped when it mattered most. Now, it's true that the Buckeyes had the number 1 defense in 2007, but the point is that both teams, LSU and OSU fielded outstanding stop-forces. Bringing me to why calling this game a "Championship" is so important.

"Defense wins championships" - Well known sports cliche. Defenses. Ohio State is 8th in the nation. Texas 50th. Unlike LSU and Florida, this foe is all offense.

And, make no mistake, it's a very good one. Indeed, one of the first things that jumps off the stat sheet at you when you look at Texas's schedule and results is the amount of points the Longhorns have put up on their opponents. They've scored at a blistering pace with 527 points on the year for an average of just under 44 a game. But, with a little digging, one has to wonder what those points might actually be worth. That is to say, the teams which the Longhorns have played seem to resemble this guy:

Bullfighter_2.gif


Consider:

Team.............Score..D Rank(yards)
Florida Atlantic.52-10...92
UTEP.............42-13..115
Rice.............52-10..114
Arkansas.........52-10...73
Colorado.........38-14...79
Oklahoma.........45-35...63
Missouri.........56-31...99
Oklahoma State...28-24...86
Texas Tech.......33-39...72
Baylor...........45-21...87
Kansas...........35-7....93
Texas A&M........49-9...113
Total.........527-217...90.5

Not a pretty picture. I mean, look at that. The best defense Texas has played this year was the Sooners who are off to the National Championship game with a defense ranked 63rd in the nation. 63rd! The Longhorns played 3 teams ranked 113 or worse, and another 3 were 92 or worse. Let that sink in. One half of Texas's schedule fielded a defense which was rated 92nd or worse. Indeed, even if we say Texas faces it's own defense in practice, the best they've seen is still only 50th in the country. You know what that makes Texas's defense look like? I'll give you a hint, the Buckeyes beat this team 45-10. That's right. Northwestern, currently 51st in the nation.

By way of contrast, let's also consider what the Buckeyes have done this season on the same metric:

Team.............Score....D rank (Yards)
Youngstown State.43-0.....Non-DIA
Ohio.............26-14....55
USC...............3-35.....1
Troy.............28-10....35
Minnesota........34-21....74
Wisconsin........20-17....38
Purdue...........16-3.....62
Michigan State...45-7.....61
Penn State........6-13.....5
Northwestern.....45-10....51
Illinois.........30-20....56
Michigan.........42-7.....69
Total............295-157..46.1


Now, first let's just get this out of the way. There are some offensive clunkers in there, no less than 3 games where the Buckeyes failed to score an offensive touchdown and two of which were losses. Likewise, because Youngstown State is not D-IA I did not count them when getting the totals. No doubt inclusion of the Penguins would trend the average defense faced downwards. But, the Penquins defense would have to be rated 579th in the nation for the Buckeyes average opponent to be the same as Texas's. I dont know where the 'Guins fall, but I'm guessing they're better than that. Indeed, to be the 579th rated defense, we'd have to agree that YSU is a midling Division III school. I don't know... Mount Union might be able to beat them, but I have my doubts that UW River Falls would. But, I digress. Fact is - Ohio State, while only scoring 26.8 points per game compared to Texas's 44, have played a much tougher opponent week in and week out.

Nonetheless, the worst defense (again, excluding YSU) the Buckeyes played was Minnesota, who comes in at 74th. Minnesota would be the 4th most stout defense on Texas' schedule, behind Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Arkansas, and just in front of Colorado. And, of course, the other factor is sort of a chicken and egg question. That is to say, even the most homer among us would have to confess that the Big XII offenses are more impressive than Big Ten offenses in 2008. But, it's all but impossible to tell if that is because the defenses are so horrid, or that the defenses are horrid because the offenses are so good. Likewise, in the Big 10, is it that the defenses are that much more stout, or are the offenses that much more anemic? I don't know, and I can't answer it firmly in one way or another.

But, I do know what a cliche is: A saying, expression, or idea that is overused to the point of losing its intended force or meaning

"Defense wins championships."

There is a reason why this phrase is a sports cliche. The reason is simple: The phrase is overused because it's true. A great defense will stop a great offense. Not all the time, mind you, but enough to give your own offense a chance. It's why the Giants won the Super Bowl, despite New England's number 1 rated O. It's why the Yankees can't make the playoffs any more. Their murderer's row line-up can be shut down by solid pitching, but they can't keep you from scoring and so they lose. Texas's defense is probably a little better than 50th, all things considered. But, they're little more than the average of what the Buckeyes have seen this year playing thier schedule. The Buckeyes can score on Texas. Conversely, the Longhorns have not faced a defense in the same area code as Ohio State's this season. Oh, I'm sure Texas can score on Ohio State. That's not the point. The question is, can they score enough? You won't hear the talking heads say that, though will you? Oh no. For them, it will be "Can Ohio State slow down the high powered offense of Texas?" Ironic, isn't it, that the "sports journalists" who rely so heavily on the cliche (SEC Speed!) refuse to take heed to the most correct cliche of them all.

"Defense wins championships."

Hopefully, come January 5, 2009, defense will be why your Buckeyes bring home their 4th Fiesta Bowl win in the Tressel era. Go Bucks! Beat Texas!
Behind the Numbers - Part I
I decided to take off my scarlet colored glasses and approach this game as an unbiased handicapper. Its worth noting that I am not a professional handicapper and that I did not stay in or near a Holiday Inn Express last night, so let the buyer beware on my free advice.

One of the tools in the Vegas handicappers toolbox is a stat called Yards Per Point. It has been around since the mid 80's and is highly regarded among professional sports bettors/handicappers. For those unfamiliar with the stat I will give a brief synopsis, for those who are familiar I apologize for the simplicity of this section. Before I get into YPPT itself let me give my standard disclaimer on stats in general.

They are a tool to be used, sometimes to great effect, but in no way shape or form are they thought to be 100% unfallable predictors so spare me the "no need to play the game then/if games were played on paper" type of comments. I know that's why they still play the games and that you can't predict anything with 100% certainty regardless of what method you subscribe to. All I'm doing is giving the best quantitative analysis I can provide to help people develop some idea of what odds they would put on the upcoming game.

The formula for YPPT is quite simple, as anyone might guess you simply divide the total yards gained by the total points scored. The lower the YPPT the better on offense, the higher the better on defense. Say a team's YPPT was 10 on offense and 22 on defense, that means the team only requires 10 yards to score each point while making their opponents gain 22 yards to score the same point.

No need to leave out points scored on defense or anything like that, YPPT is designed to be an all-inclusive yard stick for total team performance. It is not just an offensive stat. If a team has a very good defense/special teams that constantly puts the offense in good field position, the YPPT data will reflect that. Turnovers and penalties are encompassed by YPPT which leads me to what I consider the benfits of using it.

  • Clear and quantifiable connection to the reality of what happens on the field.
  • An ability to reflect on offense and defense at the same time in one stat.
  • It eliminates "lucky" scores. Scores can be very misleading, a team may score a bunch of points because of lucky breaks. It's hard to "luck" your way into good or bad YPPT numbers.
  • Its easy to understand. Low numbers are good for offense, high numbers are good for defense.
Now to be fair, the negatives of YPPT as I see them:

  • You must be very careful of using the total season's body of work. YPPT loses a lot of its luster when the results vs. a crappy team are lumped in with the results vs. a good team.
  • A good YPPT team can still be a bad team. A pass heavy, big play or nothing offense that leaves its defense out on the field all day will look good on offensive YPPT if you look no closer than that.
  • YPPT isn't kept as a formal stat in most box scores so you have to do a lot of manual work to use it. Not rocket science, just a pain.
So, keeping in mind that you must classify opponents to use YPPT more effectively, let me first break down the OSU and Texas schedule before applying YPPT data. I use 3 categories of teams when classifying opponents power Bowl team (BCS/Top 10 caliber), Medium Bowl (a team that made a Bowl game but not a BCS game), bad (non bowl teams, I-AA teams, Michigan etc)

OSU schedule
Power Bowl Teams (0-2)
USC
PSU​

Medium Bowl Teams(5-0)
Minnesota
Wisconsin
MSU
Northwestern
Troy​

Bad (5-0)
YSU (I-AA)
Ohio
Purdue
Illinois
Michigan​

Texas schedule

Power Bowl Teams (1-1)
Oklahoma
Texas Tech​

Medium Bowl Teams (5-0)
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Florida Atlantic
Rice​

Bad (5-0)
UTEP
Arkansas
Colorado
Baylor
Texas A&M​

Now over that I will lay the offensive YPPT data, remember this isn't just an offensive stat. This is a representation of what the total team effort has done to the ability of their opponent to prevent points:​

OSU schedule

Power Bowl Teams (0-2)
USC 64 plays-->207 yds 3 pts
PSU 59 plays-->287 yds 6 pts​

Totals: 123 plays -->494 yds/9 pts = 54.80 YPPT

That is essentially the worst you will ever see. 10 or less is great, 10-15 is good, 15-20 sucks, 20 or worse is just horrible etc etc. That means if OSU managed to somehow gain 400 yds in a game against a Power Bowl Team they would score about 7 points. Very Ouch babe.​

Medium Bowl Teams(5-0)
Minnesota 59 plays--> 414 yds 34 pts
Wisconsin 59 plays-->327 yds 20 pts
MSU 63 plays--> 332 yds 45 pts
Northwestern 61 plays--> 441yds 45 pts
Troy 59 plays-->309 yds 28 pts​

Totals: 301 plays-->1,823 yds/172 pts = 10.6 YPPT

Much more respectable, 364 yds per game on average and 34 points.​

Bad (5-0)
YSU (I-AA)
Ohio 68 plays-->272 yds 26 pts
Purdue 56 plays-->222yds 16 pts
Illinois 62 plays-->354 yds 30 pts
Michigan 59plays--> 416 yds 42 pts​

Totals: 245 plays-->1264 yds/114 pts = 11.09 YPPT

Meh, not much to be gleaned from pounding cupcakes except seeing yet another stat that shows Michigan was probably the worst team we played all year.​

Texas schedule

Power Bowl Teams (1-1)
Oklahoma 70 plays-->438yds 45 pts
Texas Tech 62 plays-->374yds 33 pts​

Totals: 132 plays-->812yds/78pts = 10.41 YPPT

Light years in difference between performance vs the heavyweights. That's better than the OSU effort vs the Medium Bowl Teams.​

Medium Bowl Teams (5-0)
Missouri 73 plays-->591yds 56 pts
Oklahoma State 77 plays-->504yds 28pts
Kansas 71 plays-->421yds 35 pts
Florida Atlantic 81 plays-->503yds 52 pts
Rice 68 plays-->600yds 52 pts​

Totals: 370 plays-->2619 yds/223 pts = 11.74 YPPT

Note to staff, look closely at the Oklahoma State game and see if there is anything they did we can replicate. An individual game YPPT of 18 is something that would seriously help OSU's chances. Probably just more a function of being tired/lack of focus.​

Bad (5-0)
UTEP 60 plays-->404yds 42 pts
Arkansas 73 plays-->421 yds 52 pts
Colorado 76 plays-->431 yds 38 pts
Baylor 84plays-->494yds 45 pts
Texas A&M 73 plays-->536 yds 49 pts​

Totals: 366 plays-->2286 yds/226pts = 10.12 YPPT

Not much to see here, just filling in the data. Baylor allowing the Texas offense to run 84 plays and "only" getting 45 points hung on them for it was a minor miracle.​

Now for the defensive efforts from both teams then I will tie it together with a common handicapping system. Again, keep in mind this isn't a defensive measurement but a representation of what both teams total effort does to its opponents' ability to score points.​

OSU schedule
Power Bowl Teams (0-2)
USC 62 plays-->348yds 35 pts
PSU 57 plays-->281 yds 13 pts​

Totals: 119 plays against-->629yds allowed/48 pts allowed = 13.10 DYPPT

Thats not too shabby given the caliber of the competition.​

Medium Bowl Teams(5-0)
Minnesota 64 plays-->268 yds 21pts
Wisconsin 64 plays-->326 yds 17 pts
MSU 60 plays-->240 yds 7 pts
Northwestern 70 plays-->294 yds 10pts
Troy 66 plays-->315 yds 10 pts​

Totals: 324 plays-->1443 yds/65 pts = 22.2 DYPPT

That's laying the smack down when you are supposed to. It took our Medium Bowl Team opponents on average 22 yds of offense to score 1 point.​

Bad (5-0)
YSU (I-AA)
Ohio 65 plays--> 254 yds 14 pts
Purdue 77 plays-->298 yds 3 pts
Illinois 69 plays -->455 yds 20 pts
Michigan 66 plays-->198 yds 7 pts​

Totals: 277 plays--> 1205 yds/44 pts = 27.38 DYPPT

Its official, scUM was the worst team we played all year.​

Texas schedule

Power Bowl Teams (1-1)
Oklahoma 67 plays-->435yds 35 pts
Texas Tech 81 plays-->579yds 39 pts​

Totals: 148 plays-->1014yds/74pts = 13.70 YPPT

For those questioning the Texas defense this should be an alarm bell. Compare that to OSU results vs the Power Bowl teams and then look at which team faced the better offenses in those matchups.

Medium Bowl Teams (5-0)
Missouri 60 plays-->348yds 31 pts
Oklahoma State 64 plays-->416yds 24pts
Kansas 74 plays-->305yds 7 pts
Florida Atlantic 62 plays-->292yds 10 pts
Rice 72 plays-->318yds 10 pts​

Totals: 332 plays-->1679 yds/82 pts = 20.48YPPT

Taking care of bidness

Bad (5-0)
UTEP 77 plays-->412yds 13 pts
Arkansas 54 plays-->191 yds 10 pts
Colorado 66 plays-->266 yds 14 pts
Baylor 49 plays-->272yds 21 pts
Texas A&M 57 plays-->245 yds 9 pts​

Totals: 303 plays-->1386 yds/67pts = 20.69 YPPT

Again, how in the hell did Baylor run only 49 plays to the 84 run by Texas and only lose 45-21?​

Tieing it all together, the Total Dudley YPPT betting system:
  1. Add together the total yards OSU gained vs the Power Bowl teams (494) plus the yards Texas allowed to the MEDIUM BOWL TEAMS (imo, you cannot compare OSU's offense to the elite teams) which is 1,679 yds. Do the same for points scored and allowed against the same teams (9 and 65)​
  2. This gives you an OSU YPPT figure of 29.36, now take the 2,173 yards from #1 and divide by 7 (2 power teams OSU played, 5 Med teams Texas played) and you get an average offensive output of 310 yds predicted for OSU.​
  3. 310 yds with a 29.36 YPPT predicts 10.57 pts for OSU in this game.
  4. Repeat these steps for Texas but use only Power Bowl Team data on both sides.​
  5. You get 1,441 yds and 126 points for a Texas YPPT of 11.44.​
  6. Texas is predicted to get about 360 yds, with an 11.44 YPPT which would equal 31.49 pts in this game.
So there you have it folks. Take it FWIW but this simple system predicts a 31-10 type of game in favor of Texas. Most sports bettors will jump on anything that shows more than a 5 point difference between their handicapping system and the current Vegas lines. This game opened at Texas -10 and has since dropped to -7 which tells me there are a lot of OSU fans out there betting with their hearts.​

As an OSU fan I hope I'm dead wrong and this shows me 2 things that will have to happen in order for OSU to win. First and foremost, Texas will have to suffer the famous Bowl season syndrome known as "this isn't the Bowl we wanted to be in no matter what we say publically we will come out flat as a pancake for this one" -itis. Two, if you look at the number of plays run it is a glaring reminder that the tired old football cliche about controlling the clock and TOP is absolutely critical for OSU to have a shot.​

If OSU can keep Texas under 70 plays and benefit from some sloppy play (turnovers, penalties, special teams mistake) then they have a shot. Key to doing that however will be the improvement during bowl practices of Pryor and the OL.​

As an OSU fan I can't bet against them, but if I weren't one I would place at least a small bet on Texas to cover.
Behind the Numbers- Part II
A little more Behind The Numbers


It's not news to Ohio State fans that the Buckeyes have taken heat for their performance in the last two BCS games. As previously shown, Ohio State's troubles against top-flight teams continued this year. In fact, this year will be the first time since 2004 that Ohio State has not lost to the eventual National Champion. But on the flip side, the worst team to beat the Buckeyes in the past 4 seasons was the 2007 edition of The Fighting Illini, who finished the season at #20 in the AP. The lowest ranking for any other team to beat the Buckeyes in that time is #6, which is where Penn State currently resides.

No other team can make a similar claim. In fact, Ohio State is the ONLY team that has not lost to an unranked team in the last 4 years. Further, Ohio State is the ONLY team that has lost ONLY to teams that played in BCS Bowls over the last 4 years.

But all this is cold comfort to Ohio State fans. The truth is, this is part of the reason that those who bleed Scarlet & Gray are so bloody frustrated. The Buckeyes have been very good. They have beaten nearly everyone they were supposed to beat. But three of the seven losses in the past 4 years have been blow-outs. While not losing to teams that are markedly worse than them, the Buckeyes have rarely beaten teams that are statistically equal or better over the past 4 years. Unfortunately, that is exactly the sort of match-up the Buckeyes face in the Fiesta bowl.

A Tale of Two Teams

While Ohio State and Texas are both Top 10 teams this year (at least right now), they could hardly be more different. Of the 17 primary statistics that the NCAA tracks for each team, the Buckeyes and Longhorns are ranked within 20 points of each other in only 4 of them. The average difference in ranking for the 17 metrics is 44.76, with Texas holding the lead in 10 of them.

National Rankings
fiestabowlrankings.jpg


If you care enough about football to have read this far in the preview, then it is certainly no surprise to you that the biggest differences are found in the passing game. Texas is ranked 94 places ahead of the Buckeyes in Passing Offense, but trails 102 points in Passing Defense. The differences are less pronounced in Passing Efficiency, for which the Longhorns hold a 24 spot lead on offense but trail by 48 points on defense.

Of most concern to Buckeye fans is the fact that Texas is ranked #1 in sacks, while Ohio State is #78 in sacks allowed. The Buckeyes hold no such advantage in an area where the Longhorns are weak. In fact, most of the other numbers pit strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness.

The numbers that might trouble some Buckeye fans are those that show the Texas defense as being strong vs. the run (#2), which is the Buckeyes' bread and butter (#28). This match-up is less daunting than it seems though, as the Longhorns' number here is as much a factor of playing in the Big 12 as are their passing numbers, both offensively and defensively.

A Tale of Two Conferences

In the Longhorn's Big 12 this year; it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The offenses were great; the defenses, not so much. While some would suggest that the defenses only looked bad because of the offenses, the numbers simply don't bear that out. This is most easily seen by comparing the average statistical rankings for Texas' opponents to the same for Ohio State's opponents.

National Rankings (Youngstown State's rankings were not included)

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Numbers in RED are below average.

As with the teams, their schedules also appear to have been as different as two schedules could be. While there are only 4 categories where neither team is below average, there is not ONE category in which both teams are below average.

Also noteworthy, but not at all surprising is the fact that Texas' opponents were ranked higher in the offensive passing categories thanthe Buckeyes' opponents were ranked in anything. Conversely, the Longhorns' opponents were ranked closer to the bottom in the defensive categories than they were to the top in the offensive metrics.

This suggests that the national debate about the Big 12 is moot. To wit: are their offenses that good or are their defenses that bad? The answer is that the offenses are good AND the defenses are bad, thought the table above does seem to suggest the paucity of defense is slightly more to blame.

While the teams on the Longhorns' schedule ranked 30.31 places higher than Ohio State's opponents in Passing Efficiency, they ranked 43.83 places lower in Pass Efficiency Defense. Similarly, Texas' foes ranked 24.39 spots higher in Passing Offense, but lagged by 49.87 spots in Pass Defense.

Clearly, the averages rankings paint a stark contrast between the Big 12 offenses and defenses; but that's only half of the story. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say it's only the bottom half of the story, because the bottom half is all the Longhorns played when it comes to defense.

Though Ohio State faced teams in the top 20 of every category except punt returns (26 was the highest ranking in that category), Texas did not face ANY teams ranked higher than:
  • 41st in Pass Efficiency Defense
  • 54th in Pass Defense
  • 57th in Scoring Defense
  • 63rd in Total Defense
That last number is amazing. Regardless how good the Big 12 offenses are, it is astounding that the Longhorns did not play a single team that was statistically average on defense.

These numbers explain some of the disparity in Texas' national rankings vs. their conference rankings:
While Texas was 11th in the country on Passing Offense and 9th in Total Offense, these numbers were only good enough for 5th in the Big 12. And while they were 5th in the nation in scoring offense, two of the four teams ahead of them were also Big 12 teams.

On the flip-side, 59th in the nation in Pass Efficiency Defense was good enough for 2nd in the Big 12; and 50th in Total Defense (42 spots behind the Buckeyes) landed them in 1st place in their conference (OSU was 2nd in the Big 10). The Longhorns also led their conference in Scoring Defense, though they were only 20th nationally (13 spots behind OSU, who was 2nd in the Big 10). And although they were 109th in the nation in pass defense, four of the ten teams below them were denizens of the Big 12.

Also of note is the curious fact that Texas' opponents managed to be below average in both Rushing Offense and Rushing Defense. This suggests that the Big 12 was not particularly gifted either way, and that the Longhorns played a putrid non-conference schedule. Both facts were true according to anyone who paid attention this year.
This last bit is a glimpse at the one ray of hope that the Buckeyes had in this game. Much earlier in Behind the Numbers it was observed that the Buckeyes should try to find some of the mojo that Oklahoma State had against the Longhorns. While the Cowboys didn't have enough defense to close the deal, it can safely be said that Ohio State does have some of the same mojo that Mike "The Man" Gundy's 'Boys have; and his name is Beanie Wells.

The mojo that Oklahoma State had was the fact that they were the best rushing offense that Texas faced all year (7th nationally). Kendall Hunter gained 161 yards on 18 carries against the Longhorns, for an average of 8.94 ypc (longest run was 31 yards).

While Kendall Hunter is ranked one spot ahead of Beanie, nationally; do you really think he's better? Does anyone?

Run Beanie Run​
Traditions & Opponent Perspective
You won't hear any calls from Longhorn fans for new traditions. Like Ohio State, UT is rich with them. It would take a book-length study to list them all, but we will provide you with some more popular (or more interesting) UT traditions:


  • [*]Simply put, UT has a tradition of winning. Only Meatchicken and Notre Dame have won a higher percentage of their football games all time.


  • [*]"Hook 'em Horns" is the UT symbol and slogan, introduced at a pep rally in 1955. The Hook 'em was voted by Sports Illustrated as the nation's top hand gesture. SI featured the symbol in front of a Texas pennant on the cover of their September 10, 1973, issue, the same issue that highlighted the Texas football program as the worst in the nation at that time.


  • [*]Bevo is the school mascot, a live Texas longhorn steer present at all games.


  • [*]"Smokey the Cannon" is fired in celebration of gameday, at the moment of kickoff and after UT scores.


  • [*]While traditionally their largest rival is the University of Oklahoma, the Texas A&M Aggies are obsessed with UT. Ever year UT and the Aggies play each other the day after Thanksgiving.


  • [*]"Red River Shootout" is the term given for that game between Oklahoma and UT. It is held annually in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl. They play in Dallas because it is halfway between the two teams' campuses.


  • [*]During the week of the OU/UT game, they hold an annual Torchlight Parade. The rally features performances by a variety of student groups and performers and appearances by the Texas cheerleaders, the Longhorn Band, "Smokey the Cannon," and Bevo. The rally also includes the dropping of a huge Texas flag that drapes the Main Building (or UT Tower). The Torchlight Parade and Rally tradition is organized and operated by UT students and alumni. The first Torchlight Parade at UT took place on the day before Thanksgiving (prior to the Texas A&M game) in 1916.


  • [*]Similar to "O-H" "I-O" they holler "Texas" with a return of "Fight."


  • [*]The "Eyes of Texas," "Texas Fight," "Deep in the Heart of Texas," "William Tell Overture," "Wabash Cannonball," and "March Grandioso" are the band's traditional songs performed at each game.


  • [*]Script Texas is performed by the band during halftime.


  • [*]Founded in 1900, their band is nicknamed "The Showband of the Southwest." They are 350 members strong.


  • [*]The band features "Big Bertha" once the world's largest bass drum. The drum is operated by the Bertha Crew, which moves the drum around during performances and twirls it when they score. They refer to it as "Sweetheart of the Longhorn Band."


  • [*]The "Eyes of Texas" is the alma mater written in 1903 in response to a request that a song be written for the Cowboy Minstrel Show. John Sinclair, the author, used a famous saying by the president of the university, "the eyes are always upon you," and the lyrics were put to the jingle "I've been working on the railroad." This song is played at the opening and closing of all sporting events at UT.


  • [*]The Hex Rally was originated by a palm reader. The students asked the palm reader to place a curse on the Aggies to end a UT losing streak. The Longhorns won the game, and the rally became an annual tradition. Each year before the game against the Aggies, thousands of fans, led by spirit groups, light candles and converge on the steps of UT's Main Building to hex the Aggies once again.


  • [*]On January 1, 1962, the Texas Longhorns played Mississippi in the Cotton Bowl. At halftime, the Mississippi Rebel Band unfurled a huge Texas flag measuring 51 feet wide and 90 feet long. After the game, which UT won 12 - 7, the flag was presented to Texas governor Price Daniel, who gave it to the Longhorn Band. The band asked Alpha Phi Omega, a service fraternity, to "run the flag" at that year's Texas vs. Texas A&M football game. The current flag, the largest state flag in the world, measures 75 feet by 125 feet and weighs 500 pounds. Alpha Phi Omega members still run the Texas flag, a symbol of school spirit and a proud tradition, before every home game.


  • [*]Students from Texas A&M and the University of Oklahoma usually taunt Texas students by threatening to "saw off" Bevo's horns, citing Psalms 75:10, "I shall cut off the horns of the wicked." As it turns out, that's not the entire verse, and as a response, Texas students tell Aggies and Sooners to "read the rest." The rest of the verse is "but the horns of the righteous shall be lifted up." This appears on shirts, usually with "Hook 'Em" written underneath.
Historical Data

University of Texas at Austin (Austin, Texas) Founded in 1883
Football 1st Season: 1893
Stadium: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Renovated in 1999 and 2006)
Constructed: 1924 (Godzillatron, 55 by 134 feet, added in 2006)
Seating Capacity: 85,123
Playing Surface: TifSport Certified Bermudagrass (Joe Jamail Field)
Conference: Big 12
Colors: Burnt Orange & White
Mascot: Longhorn Steer (Bevo XIV)
College Classification: D-IA (or equivalent) since 1937 (first year of NCAA classification)
Conference Championships: 31, 2 TIAA, 19 Southwest Conference Championships plus 6 Co-Championships, and 2 Big 12 Conference Championships, 2 Big 12 South Division Championships
Consensus All-Americans: 43 (37 different players as of 2004)
College Hall-of-Famers: 15
Pro Hall-of-Famers: 4 (Earl Campbell, Tom Landry, Bobby Layne, Tex Schramm)
Award Winners:
Heisman Trophy (best player) - Earle Campbell, 1977; Ricky Williams, 1998
Maxwell Award (best player) - Tommy Nobis, 1965; Ricky Williams, 1998; Vince Young, 2005
Walter Camp (best player) - Ricky Williams, 1998
AP Player of the Year - Ricky Williams, 1998
Lombardi Award (best lineman/linebacker) - Kenneth Sims, 1981; Tony Degrate, 1984
Outland Trophy (best interior lineman) - Scott Appleton, 1963; Tommy Nobis, 1965; Brad Shearer, 1977
Butkus Award (best LB) - Derrick Johnson, 2004
Butkus Silver Anniversary - Tommy Nobis, 1990
Bronko Nagurski (best defenseman) - Derrick Johnson, 2004
Davey O'Brien Award (best QB) - Vince Young, 2005
Manning Award (best QB) - Vince Young, 2005
Doak Walker Award (best RB) - Ricky Williams, 1997 & 1998
Jim Thorpe Award (best DB) - Michael Huff, 2005, Aaron Ross (2006)
AFCA Coach of the Year - Darrell Royal, 1963
Draddy - (Academic Heisman) - Dallas Griffin, 2007
Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year - Darrell Royal, 1961 & 1963
Bear Bryant Coach of the Year - Darrell Royal, 1963; Mack Brown, 2005
National Championships: 4 Recognized National Titles (1963, 1969, 1970 and 2005) and 9 others (1914, 1918, 1941, 1947, 1950, 1961, 1968, 1977, 1981)
Believe it or not, Ohio State is the major factor in three of the four recognized national championships claimed by the University of Texas. Of course, the Longhorns' 2005 championship would not have been possible but for their narrow victory over Ohio State, 25-21, in the second game of the year. After defeating the Buckeyes, Texas rolled through the rest of their opponents, and earned a berth in the national championship game against defending champs, Southern California. While the Trojans led for most of the contest, Texas quarterback Vince Young engineered an incredible last-minute comeback and the 'Horns prevailed, 41-38.

After completing a perfect season and winning a consensus national championship in 1968 with a sophomore-laden team, the Buckeyes were the clear favorites to run the table once again in 1969. Although Ohio State was generally regarded as the best team in the nation throughout the first three months of the season, the Buckeyes stumbled against the Michigan Wolverines in the final game, and that loss opened the door for the Longhorns, who won rivalry games during the final two weeks of the regular season (49-12 over Texas A+M, and 15-14 over #2 Arkansas), and then defeated the Notre Dame fighting Irish in the Cotton Bowl (21-17) to finish a perfect 11-0 and national champs in both major polls.

Led by the remaining "Super Sophs" from the '68 championship team - LB Jack Tatum, QB Rex Kern, DL Jim Stillwagon, RB John Brockington, DB Mike Sensibaugh, DB Tim Anderson, TE Jan White, WB Leo Hayden, and WB Larry Zelina - Ohio State was once again the pre-season number one team in both major polls in 1970. However, during a string of unimpressive victories against lackluster competition, the second-ranked Longhorns leap-frogged the Buckeyes in the UPI poll, and by the end of the regular season, Texas, riding a 30-game winning streak, was ahead in both polls. Despite losing the top billing, Ohio State still had a chance for a national championship, if only they could post an impressive victory in the Rose Bowl. The undefeated Buckeye squad headed to Pasadena as a heavy favorite against an undermanned Stanford team featuring future NFL star quarterback Jim Plunkett, and his favorite receiver target, Randy Vataha. Of course, Ohio State came from ahead to lose the game in the fourth quarter, and Texas was poised for back-to-back national titles. However, the Longhorns lost a Cotton Bowl re-match to sixth-ranked Notre Dame, leaving third-ranked Nebraska as the national champions by default. Despite flaming out in their final contests, both Ohio State and Texas claim national championships for 1970 - Texas (10-1) won the UPI title, and Ohio State (9-1) was named best team in the nation by National Football Foundation; it should be noted that both organizations made their respective selections prior to the New Year's Day bowl games. Nebraska (11-0-1, Sugar Bowl champs) won the AP championship, which was awarded after the conclusion of the bowl season, and today most non-partisan observers believe that the Huskers were the true national champs in 1970. And most Buckeye and Longhorn fans can only wonder "what if...."

Bottom line: Without some valuable assistance from the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Texas Longhorns would have a lone national championship star on their resume.
Number of AP/Coaches final rankings: AP-41 years, Coaches-36 years
Records
All Time: 823-313-33 (.718)
Bowl Games: 24-21-2 (.521), most recently a win over Arizona State in the 2007 Holiday Bowl
All Time vs the BigTen: 9-6 (. versus teams with conference membership at time of game (11-7 against current members all-time)
All Time vs the Ohio State Buckeyes: 1-1-0 (.500) Most recently a 24-7 loss to the Buckeyes in 2006 in Austin.
Coach's Reord: Mack Brown, 200-100-1 (.667) (1983 - 2008), 114-26 (.814) at Texas

2008 Season: 11-1-0 (.917)
08/30/08 vs. Florida Atlantic - Austin, Texas W, 52-10
09/06/08 at UTEP - El Paso, Texas W, 42-13
09/20/08 vs. Rice - Austin, Texas W, 52-10
09/27/08 vs. Arkansas - Austin, Texas W, 52-10
10/04/08 at Colorado - Boulder, Colo. W, 38-14
10/11/08 vs. Oklahoma - Dallas, Texas W, 45-35
10/18/08 vs. Missouri - Austin, Texas W, 56-31
10/25/08 vs. Oklahoma State - Austin, Texas W, 28-24
11/01/08 at Texas Tech - Lubbock, Texas L, 39-33
11/08/08 vs. Baylor - Austin, Texas W, 45-21
11/15/08 at Kansas - Lawrence, Kan. W, 35-7
11/27/08 vs. Texas A&M - Austin, Texas W, 49-9
01/05/09 vs. Ohio State - Fiesta Bowl

2009 Schedule
09/05 LOUISIANA-MONROE
09/12 at Wyoming
09/19 CENTRAL FLORIDA
09/26 UTEP
10/10 COLORADO
10/17 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)
10/24 at Missouri
10/31 at Oklahoma State
11/07 TEXAS TECH
11/14 at Baylor
11/21 KANSAS
11/26 at Texas A&M​
Links
Official Sites:
Official School Site - University of Texas
Student Publications - Texas Student Publications
Student Newspaper - Daily Texan
Official Athletic Site - University of Texas Athletics
Official Football Site - Mack Brown-Texas Football
Official Conference Site - Big 12 Conference
Official Fan Site - Horn Fans

Message Boards & Team Pages:
Official Fan Site - Horn Fans (Official)
Message Boards - Inside Texas (Scout)
Message Boards - Orange Bloods (Rivals)
Message Boards - Austin 360 (Independent)
Team Page - ESPN
Team Page - Fox Sports
Team Page - USA Today
Team Page - Yahoo
Team Page - CBS Sportsline
Team Page - CNN/SI Team Page
Team Page - The Sporting News

Local News Sources:
Austin American-Statesman - Local News
Austin 360 - Local News
Dallas Morning News - Local News
Houston Chronicle - Local News

Team Previews and Breakdowns:
CursedWithAmbition
NationalChamps.net
CollegeSports-fans
RedZoneReport
HawkDigest
Athlon(video preview)

Prospectus, Rosters & Other Info.:

2008 Roster - Mack Brown-Texas Football
2008 Depth Chart - Mack Brown-Texas Football
2008 News Releases - Mack Brown-Texas Football
2008 Texas News - CFN

Big 12 Conference:
2008 Texas preview (Big 12 Offical Web Site) - Big 12 Conference
2008 Big 12 Schedule (By Date) - Big 12 Conference
Preseason Rankings
#10 - Coaches
#11 - AP
#11 - Athlons
#8 - Lindy's
#13 - Phil Steele
#11 - Sporting News
#13 - Game Plan
#13 - Sports Illustrated
Big Ten Conference Players of the Week
Week #1 - Aug. 30, 2008
Offense - QB Juice Williams, Illinois & QB Kellen Lewis, Indiana
Defense - LB Obi Ezeh, Michigan
Special Teams - P Stefan Demos, Northwestern

Week #2 - Sept. 6, 2008
Offense - RB Javon Ringer, Michigan State & QB Adam Weber, Minnesota & RB Evan Royster, Penn State
Defense - DE Karl Klug, Iowa
Special Teams - FB Frank Halliburton, Purdue

Week #3 - Sept. 13, 2008
Offense - RB Javon Ringer, Michigan State
Defense - LB DeAndre Levy, Wisconsin
Special Teams - PR Andy Brodell, Iowa

Week #4 - Sept. 20, 2008
Offense - RB Javon Ringer, Michigan State
Defense - DE Vince Browne, Northwestern & LB Navorro Bowman, Penn State
Special Teams - PK Amado Villarreal, Northwestern

Week #5 - Sept. 27, 2008
Offense - QB - C.J. Bacher, Northwestern
Defense - DE - Brandon Graham, Michigan
Special Teams - KR - Derrick Williams, Penn State

Week #6 - Oct. 4, 2008
Offense - QB - Juice Williams, Illinois
Defense - LB - Brit Miller, Illinois
Special Teams - K - Brett Swenson, Michigan State & K - Joel Monroe, Minnesota

Week #7 - Oct. 11, 2008
Offense - QB - Daryll Clark, Penn State
Defense - DE - Willie VanDeSteeg, Minnesota & DE - Aaron Maybin, Penn State
Special Teams - K - Brett Swenson, Michigan State

Week #8 - Oct. 18, 2008
Offense - RB - Shonn Greene, Iowa
Defense - LB - Pat Angerer, Iowa
Special Teams - K - Kevin Kelly, Penn State

Week #9 - Oct. 25, 2008
Offense - QB - Mike Kafka, Northwestern & QB - Justin Siller, Purdue
Defense - S - Brendan Smith, Northwestern
Special Teams - K - Brett Swenson, Michigan State

Week #10 - Nov. 8, 2008
Offense - RB - Chris Wells, Ohio State & WR - David Gilreath, Wisconsin
Defense - S - Tyler Sash, Iowa
Special Teams - K - K.C. Lopata, Michigan

Week #11 - Nov. 15, 2008
Offense - RB - Shonn Green, Iowa
Defense - DT - Mike Newkirk, Wisconsin
Special Teams - CB - Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State

Week #12 - Nov. 24, 2008
Offense - QB - Daryll Clark, Penn State & QB Curtis Painter, Purdue
Defense - DE - Kevin Mims, Northwestern
Special Teams - P - Ryan Donahue, Iowa

Preseason Accolades
BigTen Preseason Media Poll
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Illinois

Preseason Offensive Player of the Year - Chris "Beanie" Wells - Ohio State

Preseason Defensive Player of the Year - James Laurinaitis - Ohio State
Note: Statistical data was complied using a variety of sources, including:
Stassen (Chris Stassen) - Data
College Football Data Warehouse - Data
American College Football-RSFC (Dave Wilson) - Data
D1A Football (Formerly WALJ 10 College Football) - Data
National Champs.net - Data
Hickok Sports - Data


 
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