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- Thread starter Steve19
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BuckTwenty
Parties with Pete Johnson's Beard
B20's Thoughts...
-I like us at #5. Too many questions, but I think we have a lot of answers (and good ones).
-I see West Virginia being this year's Purdue. Highly ranked based on a solid core coming back and a TON of extra bonus votes due to an "easy schedule"
-Oklahoma could be this year's Tennessee/Iowa. High hopes (and pre-season rankings), but things fall through due to inefficiencies. I guess I see them more as an Iowa (mediocre) than a Tennessee (downright terrible).
-USC is going to be DANG-ER-OUS this year. Yeah, they're losing a lot, but they have guys that could've started at some pretty big schools last year that were riding the pine (their 3rd string QB could have played for 80% of other teams last year as a true frosh!)
-I'm predicting that the Pac-10 won't be as embaressing as they have in past years. They still won't be considered "great", but I think they could pass for being "quite good" for a change. Maybe USC will actually have COMPETITION for a change...
-I don't think there's a clear-cut number 1 this year, because it seems as though this is going to be considered a "down-year" for the upcoming season (due to a lot of elite players graduating; a lot of "potential superstars" leaving early). My pick for pre-season #1 is Notre Dame, because 1) they're returning as many starters as we did last year, 2) it'll make their losing just THAT MUCH sweeter, and 3) I want a rematch. In other years, I don't know if we could get away with losing 9 of 11 players on D and still be considered a top 6 or 7 team. This year, we can.
-I like us at #5. Too many questions, but I think we have a lot of answers (and good ones).
-I see West Virginia being this year's Purdue. Highly ranked based on a solid core coming back and a TON of extra bonus votes due to an "easy schedule"
-Oklahoma could be this year's Tennessee/Iowa. High hopes (and pre-season rankings), but things fall through due to inefficiencies. I guess I see them more as an Iowa (mediocre) than a Tennessee (downright terrible).
-USC is going to be DANG-ER-OUS this year. Yeah, they're losing a lot, but they have guys that could've started at some pretty big schools last year that were riding the pine (their 3rd string QB could have played for 80% of other teams last year as a true frosh!)
-I'm predicting that the Pac-10 won't be as embaressing as they have in past years. They still won't be considered "great", but I think they could pass for being "quite good" for a change. Maybe USC will actually have COMPETITION for a change...
-I don't think there's a clear-cut number 1 this year, because it seems as though this is going to be considered a "down-year" for the upcoming season (due to a lot of elite players graduating; a lot of "potential superstars" leaving early). My pick for pre-season #1 is Notre Dame, because 1) they're returning as many starters as we did last year, 2) it'll make their losing just THAT MUCH sweeter, and 3) I want a rematch. In other years, I don't know if we could get away with losing 9 of 11 players on D and still be considered a top 6 or 7 team. This year, we can.
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NOTREDAMECHIEF
Legend
ND just has to many questions on defense to be brought into this discussion.
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NOTREDAMECHIEF
Legend
The good news is that I don't think ND will face a defense anywhere near as good as OSU had last year.
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HundedLane
All-American
I'll probably be the first of many to say that I don't think ND will face a team like that for awhile!NOTREDAMECHIEF said:
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Sorry, but that is one of the dumbest reasonings ever (and not because you said it, sng77...I've heard that for years and years and have always felt that). Texas is the 2005 national champion...this is 2006, with different schedules and different team members. No way is Texas anywhere near the team that they were with Vince Young.
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xrayrandy
Blowhard Statistician
I don't understand the love for NDs offense. They lose 4 starters on the line + 2 backups, the starting TE and fullback. I don't think Quinn will be nearly as successful without any pass protection.
Losing 5 starters off their defense may actually be a good thing considering how bad they were, but I wouldn't hold my breath expecting their defense to get better.
I don't see them as a preseason top 10 team.
Losing 5 starters off their defense may actually be a good thing considering how bad they were, but I wouldn't hold my breath expecting their defense to get better.
I don't see them as a preseason top 10 team.
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scarletngrey11
All right, all right, all right.
The media loves Brady Quinn and Charlie Weis, if you ask me thats the only reason why they are preseason top 5. I dont see how you give up 617 yards in your bowl game and still be capable of a top 5 ranking, while losing all those offensive players that you listed.
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NOTREDAMECHIEF
Legend
The offensive losses you listed are wrong. ND's fullback half of last season is back as well as the leading reciever the previous 2 seasons will be back after missing almost all of last year. As for the o-line, ND used rotated alot last season and will only really lose one linemen. The tight end was very good but he had a back-up who played alot and did very well.
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I have been keeping track of all the way-too-early and early preseason polls in an excel sheet. Once we get more I'll have an analysis of all the teams by the polls on average, etc.
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sandgk
Watson, Crick & A Twist
NDChief - first a bit on xrayrandy's pithy assessment of the ND defensive returners.
I have never understood the logical disconnect opined by some ND fans I know that goes, ND is losing lots of defensive starters - therefore there is a guaranteed improvement over the 2005 squad - which was victimized by teams with speed and aerial talent. xrayrandy is obviously turning that around, and I have to say I agree, precisely because the ND Defensive roster for 2006 is effecively unproven. (As evidence of the easy pickings against the 2005 ND DBs the Fiesta Bowl comes to mind of course, but it isn't the only instance).
The reason why this opinion is difficult to understand is that the losses to graduation are spread throughout the defensive positions. LB being hit harder than any other spot. I have heard assumptions that the DBs will be greatly improved with incoming frosh, retruning jr/sr but the former are unproven commodities at the college level, the latter with the exception of Tom Z part of a problem, not of a solution.
About your comments concerning the ND offense -- in part taking the 2005 depth chart as a guide -- in part reading of an MD fan photo montage of offensive starters. LINK
Yes Reba returns for ND having lost the 2005 season to inujry. So Quinn will still have two tall receivers to hit deep, if he has time to set and read. To do that he needs not just beef on the line, but also a really good running game. ND's offensive losses negatively impact both requirements.
Loss 1 - TE, On the line lets start at TE, Fasano goes - and he was more than a pass catcher, so there may be a drop-off in protection, run blocking and pass catching.
Loss 2 - Matt LeVoir Starting Offensive Tackle, gone - his replacement Duncan saw limited action last year.
Loss 3 - Dan Stevenson OG and a vital part of opening space for RB Darius Walker. Morton splits from Center back-up in 2005 to fill this slot.
Loss 4 - FB Rashon Powers Neal - also part of helping the running game, gone.
Loss 5 - Depth in the receiving game - Matt Shelton.
So, I guess you are right that the number of losses on the line is less than randy suggested, though I think you are still under-counting effective line losses. as 2 starting linemen are gone. Plus, while Walker returns, big parts of the ND run-blocking will be gone.
Now, add to all this defensive and offensive turmoil a darned tough opening half of the ND schedule and this is why I think many observers scratch their heads at the notion of ND as a top 10 team. Just when they need to show the best, most coherent football they will likely be getting newcomers and relative newcomers on track.
That is a recipe for a 2 or more losses in the first five games, and a lower than #10 ranking. Once ND gets situated in that double-figure ranking range it will be enormously difficult for them to dig out.
I agree with randy, ND next year is not a top 10 team.
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