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2006 Penn State Nittany Lions Game Preview
written by: BB73, BuckeyeRyn, Buckeyeskickbuttocks, Bucklion, DaddyBigBucks, daddyphatsacs, Deety, FKAGobucks877, jwinslow, LordJeffBuck, osugrad21, OSUsushichic, PrincessPeach, and 3yardsandacloud
We will try very hard not to make any mistakes in this preview, since when talking about Penn State nobody wants to even think about using any Whiteout. Here are some numbers that relate to Penn State and their long-time coach Joe Paterno.
41 - The number of seasons that JoePa has been the head coach at Penn State. That ties him with Amos Alonzo Stagg's mark of 41 seasons for the most seasons as head football coach at a major college. Stagg was at the University of Chicago from 1892 through 1932, and all but the first 4 of those years were spent in the Big Ten Conference (or Western Conference from 1896 to 1899, then the Big Nine until 1917). After leaving the Big Ten and giving up football in 1940, Chicago is now a Division III program.
548 - The total number of major college games coached by Stagg (per ncaa.org), including his stints at Springfield College and Pacific. This week's game will be #478 for JoePa, so he may want to hang around for 6 more years in order to break that mark. But since Bobby Bowden's only 4 games behind in this category, he'll have to keep going until Bowden quits to retain it.
356 - The number of games that JoePa has won as head coach. He trails Bobby Bowden by 5 wins, since the NCAA allows Bowden to count his 31 victories at Howard College (now 1-AA Samford University).
79 - Joe Paterno's actual age. He's got gym socks older than most of the people reading this preview. If he coaches in a bowl game after his birthday on December 21st, he'll be stolling the sidelines with rolled-up pants at the age of 80.
3-2-1 - That's the all-time bowl game record for the Nittany Lions. not counting games coached by JoePa.
24-12-2 - Their overall bowl record including his games. JoePa's 21 bowl wins are the most ever; Bobby Bowden is next with 19, and was prevented from tying JoePa due to Penn State's triple-OT win in January's Orange Bowl.
7 - The increase in wins between PSU's 2004's mark of 4-7 and the 11-1 campaign last year. This was only exceeded last season by George O'Leary's increase from 0-11 to 8-5 at UCF.
$250,000 - Amount donated by Mr. and Mrs. JoePa to the University Library. They also helped raised $13.5 for library construction funds. A wing was renamed the Paterno Library to recognize their efforts.
10-11 - The all-time record between tOSU and Penn State. The Nittany Lions won the first 4 games, which were all in Columbus, so tOSU has never led in the series. This includes Penn State losing all 6 games played in the 'Shoe since they joined the Big 10 in 1993.
56-9-1 - Ohio State's all-time record when ranked #1.
4-8 - Penn State's record all-time when facing a number 1 ranked team.
9 - The number of vists that College Gameday will have made to Ohio State as of Saturday. That is the most to any single football location.
Date and Time
Date: Saturday, September 23rd, 2006
Time: 3:30 EDT Kick-off
Location: Ohio Stadium - "The Horseshoe" (Columbus, OH)
Constructed: 1922 (Renovated in 2001)
Seating Capacity: 101,568 (Originally 66,210)
Playing Surface: Natural Grass (P.A.T.)
Honorary Captain: Jeff Logan
Broadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ABC (Additionally, ESPN's College Game Day will be on location just south of St. John Arena)
Radio Broadcast (National): USA Radio Network
Radio Broadcast (Local): Ohio State Radio Network (1460TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline)
2006 Penn State Nittany Lions Offensive Preview
Returning starters: 5
After a somewhat sluggish start the Buckeyes cruised past Cincinnati and now focus on the 2nd of 3 critical games in the month of September, as the Nittany Lions of Penn State descend on Columbus. Everyone remembers last year's slug-fest, and how the Buckeyes responded and ran the table the rest of the way, sharing the Big Ten title in the process. Last season, despite the defensive nature of the yearly clash with the Buckeyes, the Lions were impressive offensively, ranking 13th in scoring (34.4 ppg) and 33rd in total offense (421.5 ypg) including 14th in rushing (212.8 ypg). With 212.8 yards on the ground and 208.8 yards through the air per game, the Lions struck an impressive balance probably not seen in Happy Valley since their 1994 team. Throw in their turnover margin of +0.25 per game and the athletic and often outstanding play of QB Michael Robinson, and the Lions had a good 2005 campaign on the offensive side of the football, in addition to fielding an outstanding team defense.
This season, however, though the numbers are similar, the Lions appear to be a shell of their former selves in terms of overall results. Certainly, the loss of Robinson was expected to require some adjustment period. However, with highly touted Anthony Morelli to take over, the speed at wideout, and the return of RB Tony Hunt and LT Levi Brown, many Lion fans were expecting the offense to carry a greater share of the load this year, a la what the Buckeyes have accomplished. On one hand, the Lions have put up a respectable 207.7 ypg rushing, similar to last season's average and ranked 17th nationally. However, the passing game at 233 ypg fails to rank in the current top 50 and is similar to last season, when the Lions finished 74th in passing offense with a similar average. Though the Lions were able to handle 2 lesser opponents fairly routinely, the loss of Robinson and the poor decision making by Morelli, along with his inability to run effectively, were exposed in the Notre Dame game, when the Lions were buried behind a 41-3 deficit despite moving the ball effectively at times between the 30s. The offense is going to have to click on all cylinders and play mistake free football to stay in this game, and though they certainly aren't short on talent, it is difficult to see this offense playing at that high of a level at this point, on the road.
Quarterbacks
QB #14 Anthony Morelli (6-4, 220, JR, Penn Hills HS, Pittsburgh, PA)
Lion fans were hoping the Morelli era would be ushered in with a quick start out of the gate and allow some ease to compensate for the loss of Robinson. Though he started fast in the Akron game in the 1st half, the rest of the time he has been relatively pedestrian, making some poor decisions that contributed to the blowout loss at Notre Dame. He's a big kid with a strong arm, which can work against him when he makes poor decisions trying to force the ball into coverage. He's thrown for 549 yards, with 4 TDs and only 1 INT, but he also had an ill-advised pitch that led to an Irish TD and has completed only 52.2% of his passes. Despite a 28 yard scamper in the Notre Dame game, he isn't very mobile and will not burn teams with his feet, something that was a constant threat with Robinson at the helm. He has only been sacked one time so far, so that's a positive. Against the Irish he actually completed a much higher percentage of his passes (63.6%) than against the lesser competition, and he completed only 41% against 1-AA Youngstown State last week. It will be interesting to see what he has against the Silver Bullets on Saturday.
The backup is promising freshman Daryll Clark (#17), a big kid with similar size to Morelli who played some the past 2 weeks. He is much more of a rushing threat, gaining 54 total yards and scoring a rushing TD each of the last 2 games. There are already whispers of people pining for him to see more time if Morelli continues to struggle with consistency. If he enters this game, however, the Lions are probably in trouble.
QB Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State QBs
Morelli (P/R): 48/92 (52.2%), 549 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT, 114.5 rating; 6/10, 0 TDs.
Smith (P/R): 56/81 (69.1%), 769 yards, 7 TDs, 0 INTs, 177.4 rating; 12/-14, 0 TDs.
Troy Smith is a Heisman candidate who has become a big-time passer. Lion fans are hoping that by this time next year, they can say similar things about Morelli, but clearly that is not the case now. Unlike last year, when Michael Robinson led the dramatic come-from-behind win at Northwestern and had the undivided attention of his team and opposing coordinators, Morelli does not appear to be entrenched at the helm yet, and he is still struggling mightily with his consistency. This one is really no contest.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
RB #26 Tony Hunt (6-2, 230, SR, TC Williams High, Alexandria, VA)
FB #86 Matt Hahn (6-0, 230, JR, St. Anthony's HS, Dix Hills, NY)
Hunt, from uber-famous TC Williams High (yes, that TC Williams High), hasn't gotten nearly the attention of predecessors such as Larry Johnson, but he has turned in a relatively decent career, and gained over 1000 yards last season as a junior. Though he lacks Johnson's explosiveness, he's a fierce runner, high on toughness, and can move the ball effectively at stretches. So far this season, he's gained a modest 253 yards and caught just 6 passes, breaking the 100-yard barrier just once, last week against Youngstown State, and he has just 2 rushing TDs. He's had a relatively light load thus far, carrying just 14, 12, and 18 times in 3 games. There is no doubt he is a big and powerful runner, but against the Buckeye front 4 with several new starters on the OL this season, Hunt may be wishing to Remember the Titans, and not to Remember the Buckeyes, before Saturday is over.
Next on the chart is junior Rodney Kinlaw (#8), a player who has not gained 100 yards in any season as a Lion until this year, as he has 121 yards on 16 carries thus far. He had 6 for 86 yards last week against the Penguins. The Lions will also use Derrick Williams and AJ Wallace on gadget plays. The bottom line is without Austin Scott, the Lions are sunk if anything happens to Hunt.
Hahn has taken over the FB role from BranDon Snow, and has played capably. He's a good receiving threat out of the backfield, with 4 catches for 48 yards to go with his 4 carries for 10 yards, and is an adequate blocker despite being smallish for a fullback.
RB Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State RBs
Hunt: 44/253 yards, 2 TDs, 5.8 YPC; 6 rec/60 yards, 0 TDs, 10.0 YPR
Kinlaw: 16/121 yards, 0 TDs, 7.6 YPC; 2 rec/-2 yards, 0 TDs, -1.0 YPR
Pittman: 51/340 yards, 3 TDs, 6.7 YPC; 3 rec/7 yards, 0 TDs, 2.3 YPR
C Wells: 20/85, 1 TD, 4.3 YPC; 1 rec/10 yards, 0 TDs, 10.0 YPR
Hunt is probably significantly better than that B- rating, but there is nothing of significance behind him. Kinlaw is average at best, and the depth is very lacking, compared to Ohio State, who boast not 2, but 3 quality tailbacks. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see Hunt acquit himself well, and a gadget play or 2 might also be effective with Williams, but depth and quality both give Ohio State the edge here.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR #3 Deon Butler (5-10, 166, SO, C.D. Hylton HS, Woodbridge, VA)
WR #24 Jordan Norwood (5-10, 168, SO, State College Area HS, State College, PA)
WR #2 Derrick Williams (6-0, 201, SO, Eleanor Roosevelt HS, Greenbelt, MD)
This group is about as highly touted as any in the country, and as highly touted a unit as Penn State has ever had, yet the production this season has not matched expectations, especially in the case of Williams. However one might blame that more on the coaching staff than the player himself. The highly recruited Williams was developing into a fine player last year, and has shown courage coming back from his severely broken arm. However, rather than allowing him to attempt to master a single position (wideout for instance) the coaching staff seems so intense about "taking advantage of his speed and talent" that they can't seem to figure out what to do with him, and the lack of consistency has stifled his development, at least to an extent. The Penn State coaching staff over the years has repeatedly done this, with examples being Michael Robinson until last season (who knows how good a QB he could have been had he played there 4 years) and Eddie Drummond several years back as well. The result is a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none syndrome where a truly special talent is somewhat wasted in the long run, and a potential high quality NFL player doesn't develop in time. Only time will tell if Williams falls into this category or not, but the more times they line him up at QB in a slash role, the less time he has to develop as a wide receiver or running back. His unimpressive 7 catches for 79 yards and 1 TD in 3 games bears this out. He has also spent some time in the backfield, as he has carried the ball 15 times for 64 yards and another TD. He was primarily a receiver the first 2 games, and carried it 9 times last week...hard to say what they are intending to do with him in the long run, but if he is going to cash in on his potential, they'll need to define a role for him besides the return game.
At the receiver position itself, Butler and Norwood are quite capable. Both are small and very fast, with a penchant for getting open on intermediate routes. Norwood leads the team with 13 catches for 152 yards and a single TD, on Morelli's first pass against Akron in week 1. He did not have a catch last weekend against Youngstown State, but did put up 91 yards on ND. Butler is also quite shifty, having caught 6 passes for 95 yards and 2 TDs thus far. He's caught 2 passes in each of the first 3 games. Look for both to have a big play or 2 against the Buckeyes, especially if they get behind and have to throw the ball repeatedly. These two are a solid tandem.
Amongst the backups, junior Terrell Golden (#4) could see the most action, though he has just 1 catch so far. Promising freshman Chris Bell (#19) will also see some time, and he has produced 5 catches for 66 yards thus far, catching at least a pass in all 3 games. Junior Brendan Perretta (#25) will also probably see the field at some point, and he has caught a handful of passes thus far.
WR Rating: B+
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State WRs
Norwood: 13 catches,152 yards, 1 TD, 11.7 YPR
Butler: 6 catches, 95 yards, 2 TDs, 15.8 YPR
Williams: 7 catches, 79 yards, 1 TD, 11.3 YPR
Ginn Jr.: 14 catches, 253 yards, 5 TDs, 18.1 YPR
Gonzalez: 17 catches, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 16.5 YPR
Robiskie: 7 catches, 79 yards, 0 TDs, 11.3 YPR
This is an interesting matchup here. Both teams have a solid group, and both have significant ability to work the wings of the field or break a long one. The wildcard here might be Williams. The much ballyhooed battle between he and Ginn (at least in the minds of some Penn State fans) has never really materialized, but Williams is a dangerous player at his best, similar to what Ginn can bring to the table, though Ginn has stepped up his game significantly since his breakout game in the Fiesta Bowl. Ginn is more polished and established at this point, but if Williams can get involved often, he can do some damage, and he can bring the same kinds of things to the table that Ginn does. Norwood and Butler can play in Gonzalez's league, but Gonzo has proven to be one of the most effective receivers in the country at this point...something Norwood and Butler could possibly do if given the chance, but the disparity at QB production right now prevents such a fair comparison. The Nittany Lion crew can certainly be fun to watch, and whichever one you consider #3 has an advantage over the Buckeye #3, but given the success and experience of the Ohio State group to this point, one has to go with the Buckeyes here, though this is much, much closer in caliber than the other skill position matchups are.
Edge: Ohio State
Tight Ends
TE #88 Kevin Darling (6-3, 242, SR, West Springfield HS, Springfield, VA)
The Lion TE position appears to be somewhat by committee. Darling has played significant time, and is listed at the top of the chart. However sophomore Jordan Lyons (#89) has played significantly in all 3 games, and freshman Andrew Quarless (#10) and senior Patrick Hall (#44) have also played some. Darling and Quarless have caught a couple of passes each, but there is no threat of the TE of Lion lore (Kyle Brady and John Gilmore, for example) here this season. Don't look for the TEs to do much more than block for the running game when called upon.
TE Rating: C-
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State TEs
Darling: 2 catches, 31 yards, 0 TDs, 15.5 YPR
Nicol: 6 rec, 52 yards, 0 TDs, 8.7 YPR
Neither team does a whole lot with the TE position in the passing game, and both use the position adequately in the running attack. Neither stands out much here, in terms of quality or utility.
Edge: Even
Offensive Line
LT #67 Levi Brown (6-5, 328, SR, Granby HS, Norfolk, VA)
LG #76 Gerald Cadogan (6-5, 311, SO, Portsmouth HS, Portsmouth, OH)
C #57 A.Q. Shipley (6-1, 297, SO, Moon Area HS, Coraopolis, PA)
RG #65 Robert Price (6-0, 299, SR, Shaker Heights HS, Shaker Heights, OH)
RT #78 John Shaw (6-4, 299, JR, Spring Grove HS, Spring Grove, PA)
The best player is obviously NFL prospect Brown, who returned for his senior year to anchor the left tackle position. He offers leadership and talent to a group that is otherwise lacking in starting experience. Price has been around the program for a while, and offers some toughness inside now that he has his chance. Cadogan is monster and a load to get around, and can be a battering ram inside if he reaches his potential. Shaw was a bit of a surprise when he beat out Chris Auletta for the RT spot, and he and Shipley need to play well if this unit is going to be successful. They have only allowed one sack on Morelli, and the running game has been fairly effective thus far, but the line clearly needs to take that next step if this offense is going to be able to take advantage of the downfield potential of the speedy wideouts. Other than Brown, this group is solid but unspectacular thus far.
Auletta (#79) leads the list of backups, and is a solid option of necessary. He has played in all 3 contests thus far. Guard Rich Ohrnberger (#64) and center Patrick Weber (#60) have also played in every game to this point, so don't be surprised to see them Saturday.
OL Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State OL
The Lions boast perhaps the best player of the bunch in Brown, but side-to-side the Buckeye line is superior. Datish and Barton lend a great deal of experience, and Boone has the size and potential to be a difference maker with more experience. Both lines will probably hold their own (and most likely a defensive lineman or two as well), but given the experience and overall offensive success, the Buckeyes get the edge. Perhaps Smith not having to be a running QB this year, and being ultra-successful throwing the ball bears that out more clearly than anything else.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Offensive Analysis
This offense was very effective last year, but like Texas, much seems to have been lost without the athletic QB at the helm. The key for the Lions will be Morelli, and how many good decisions and effective throws he can make to the talented wideouts. The running game will probably move the ball some, and the line will play OK, but the QB position is the key to the Lions having any chance in the Horseshoe Saturday. The Lions have enough weapons at wideout that they can be effective if all 3 are playing well, because it's hard to cover them all and still slow down Hunt. Perhaps even more than the QB, the Lion coaching staff will also be critical in how this plays out. The tendency seemed to be to run some plays that would have been much, much more effective against ND had Robinson been there...instead, the playcalling didn't seem to give the Lions much chance for success, based on the personnel they have. Give Joe credit for playing the freshmen, but the Lions have always been wary of an air attack that sends the ball all over the field, even in years like 1994 when the personnel was good enough to make that work. Morelli is a drop back and fire a 15 yarder kind of QB...whether he can handle the defense doing that, and whether the coaches will put him in position to do so by calling the right plays remains to be seen. It is difficult to see the Lions staying with the Buckeyes for 4 quarters, but if they can hit a big play or 2 early and open up the running game, they can certainly have some success. Whether that shows up on the scoreboard like it did with Robinson at the helm is anyone's guess. The talent is higher than the grade, but the results are what they are ... and it's up to the Lions to prove otherwise.
Overall Offensive Rating: B-
2006 Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Preview
Returning Starters: 4
Penn St. comes into Columbus this week featuring a defense that has made a transition over to a 3-4 look. They are breaking in quite a few new starters this season, with their greenest areas being along the line, and in the secondary. This team certainly has a lot of growing up to do defensively if they want to be the caliber of team that they were last season. Things won't get any easier for the Lions this week in the Horseshoe. Below is where they rank statistically in the Big Ten through 3 games, lets also keep in mind that one of their games (last week against Youngstown St.) was against a 1-AA school.
Scoring Defense: 20 Points per game (7th in Big Ten)
Rushing Defense: 63.3 Yards per game (2nd in Big Ten)
Passing Defense: 205.3 Yards per game (8th in Big Ten)
Total Defense: 268.7 Yards per game (5th in Big Ten)
Sacks: 12 (3rd in Big ten)
Interceptions: 4 (T-4th in Big Ten)
Red Zone Defense (T-10th in Big Ten) Opponents have scored points all 8 times that they have gotten inside Penn St's 20 yard line. 5 of the trips resulted in touchdowns, with the other 3 being field goals.
Defensive Line
DE: #99 Jim Shaw (6-3 264 SR.)
DT: #13 Jay Alford (6-3 288 SR.)
DT: 92 Ed Johnson (6-1 290 SR.)
Leading the way for the Nittany Lions up front will be senior Jay Alford. Alford was a 2nd team all Big Ten pick a year ago, and had his name pop up on some preseason All American lists prior to the start of this season. So far he's managed 7 tackles, including 2.5 for a loss, and 1.5 sacks. In addition, he has forced and recovered a fumble this season. Alford is probably the best lineman on this squad. He has a very nice blend of size, speed, and strength. Ohio State will need to get a body on Alford this week, he has the ability to really be a thorn in their side. The other tackle for the Nittany Lions will be senior tackle Ed Johnson. Johnson, who wasn't even enrolled in school at this time a year ago, has come on strong to start his senior year. On the season he has 12 tackles, including 4 for a loss, and 3 sacks. Johnson has been a big contributor for a Nittany Lions line that lost 3 starters from a year ago. Getting the start at defensive end for PSU will be senior Jim Shaw. He has totaled 5 tackles. Shaw probably is the weakest link on this Penn St. defensive line, he's a bit undersized, and isn't overly impressive with his athleticism. Ohio State should be able to attack his side of the line quite a bit this week.
DL Rating: B
DL Analysis
Penn State is much weaker along the defensive line this season as compared to last season. The only returning starter from the 2005 squad is Jay Alford. Alford will really need to have a big game against Ohio State if the Nittany Lions are going to have a chance on Saturday. He has been drawing double teams so far this season, and has seen his production drop. Outside of Alford the Lions are not very good - probably a bit below average. They say that football is won and lost in the trenches, and I think Penn State made that apparent with the success they had last season (especially along the D line). This unit doesn't hold a candle to the 2005 unit, so look for the Buckeyes to attack this defense early and often.
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State DL
Penn State has one stud lineman in Alford, and he has been pretty quiet this season. Teams have been focusing on him much more than they did last season, now that Hali is gone. As for the Buckeyes, their unit is arguably the best in the Big Ten, and probably one of the better squads in the country. Quinn Pitcock is having an All-American caliber season, and already has 4 sacks. Vernon Gholston has 2.5 sacks so far, as well. As a whole, this Buckeye defensive line is tied for 1st in the Big Ten with 13 sacks (against much better competition than PSU has faced). Overall, the Buckeyes get the edge in this department.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers
OLB: #45 Sean Lee (6-2 222 SO.)
ILB: #31 Paul Posluszny (6-2 238 SR.)
ILB: #20 Tim Shaw (6-1 237 SR.)
OLB: #40 Dan Conner (6-3 225 JR.)
Leading the way at linebacker for the Nittany Lions is senior all-everything linebacker Paul Posluszny. Posluszny gathered a shelf full of very impressive hardware last season (including the Bednarik and Butkus awards) en route to a consensus 1st team All-American season. I'm sure that there are a few Buckeye fans who would argue that A.J. Hawk very well could have won either of those awards over Posluszny. Paul is out to a pretty quiet start this season, ranking 2nd on the team with 27 tackles. Normally this would be where I mention his number of sacks and tackles for loss, but he doesn't have any. This statistic reflects my opinion that he is having a slow season. Regardless, Posluszny is the best linebacker in the country. It remains to be seen whether he can duplicate the 2005 season, especially after suffering a knee injury in the Orange bowl. Ohio State had better have a blocker on him all game long, because this guy is flat out nasty. He has an amazing amount of drive, size, and athleticism. I sure as hell don't want this to be his 2006 coming out party, and hopefully the Buckeye coaches feel the same. The other inside backer spot for the Nittany Lions is senior Tim Shaw. On the season, Shaw has a total of 9 tackles (2 for loss, both of which were sacks).
Getting the start at one of the outside linebacker spots will be junior All-Big Ten candidate Dan Conner. Conner is out to a big start, as he has accumulated a total of 30 tackles (1st on team, 4th in Big Ten), 4.5 tackles for loss (6th in Big Ten), and 3 sacks (4th in Big Ten), and one forced fumble. Conner is having the season that most PSU fans expected Posluszny to be having to this point. This is most likely due to the focus that most defenses are putting on the Butkus award winner. Conner is the key to this Penn State defense. He has the ability to make things happen, as he is a good sized, athletic linebacker. Ohio State will have to contain him, because I have a feeling that he'll be menacing Troy Smith quite a bit. The other outside linebacker spot will be held by sophomore Sean Lee. On the season, Lee is 3rd on the team with 16 tackles (3 for loss with a half sack).
LB Rating: A
LB Analysis
All in all, this is a very solid linebacking unit for the Nittany Lions - in fact, it's probably the best in the Big Ten. Posluszny's resume speaks for itself (although it goes to be seen if he can be the kind of impact player that he was last season). Conner is a budding star, and is out to an All-Big Ten caliber season. The other two guys have also found a way to make some plays in the backfield, and they form a very solid unit as a whole. The X-factor is the inexperience up front with the loss of a couple of key defensive lineman from last year's squad. A defense is only as good as its defensive line. Just go back to Iowa's defense last season - they returned two All-American caliber players (Hodge, Greenway), but had a similar situation in the inexperienced line. The linebackers had blockers on them every play, and teams were able to move the ball at will against the Iowa unit...even though they were very talented at linebacker. Penn State, I think, has the same situation this season. Posluszny is out to a slow start, and I think the reason is that he is not playing behind a good defensive front. Most of the big plays for the Lions at linebacker have come on the outside. This unit is very good, but they can only be as good as their defensive line will allow them to be.
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State LBs
The very presence of Posluszny in this category swings it over to the Nittany Lions, but after that, these units are pretty even. Conner and Laurinaitis are both having very good seasons, although one would argue that Laurinaitis has shown up more in the big games. Overall, I believe that Laurinaitis is a slightly better player. The comparison between the remaining 'backers can be called a wash, as both units have been solid, but not spectacular. Depth-wise, give the edge to OSU, but overall PSU is the better squad.
Edge: Penn State
Secondary
CB: #11 Tony Davis (5-10 193 SO.)
SS: #7 Anthony Scirrotto (6-0 192 SO.)
FS: #6 Donnie Johnson (6-0 209 SR.)
CB: #1 Justin King (6-0 181 SO.)
Sophomore safety Anthony Scirrotto is the headliner of the secondary. Scirrotto has 13 tackles on the season, and leads all Penn St. defenders with 2 interceptions. Senior Donnie Johnson will be called upon to hold down the fort at the other safety spot. Johnson has 14 tackles on the year, including 4 for a loss (one sack), to go along with a pass break-up and a forced fumble.
Penn State starts a pair of sophomores at the cornerback spots. Future star Justin King, who was tabbed by a few tabloids as an All-Conference selection, will now have to back up that hype in a big game. He's been pretty quiet to date, racking up 12 tackles (but no interceptions). The other corner spot will be held by Tony Davis. Davis has 8 tackles so far this season, including half a sack. Davis also leads the Nittany Lions with 4 pass break-ups.
DB Rating: B-
DB Analysis
Youth is the key word for this Penn State secondary. They have the potential to be a decent squad, but so far this season have struggled. They are currently 8th in the Big Ten against the pass, and in their only true test this season, Notre Dame hung up 287 yards passing. Justin King has NFL caliber talent, but his technique suffered last season when he played receiver. He has the athleticism to match the OSU receivers, but lacks the experience. The secondary is a big problem for the Nittany Lions right now, so look for Troy Smith to continue his Heisman march with an efficient game.
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State DBs
Ohio State has surrendered 187 passing yards per contest so far this season, compared to Penn State's 205. Also, the Buckeyes have played with a lead in 11 of the 12 quarters played this season, which obviously forces our opponents to throw the ball more. The Lions have some speed to burn at corner, but are not as deep or as athletic as this quickly emerging Buckeye secondary.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
Penn State is staying true to form, living up to their reputation of "Linebacker U". They have a couple of very good linebackers in Posluszny and Conner, and the other two have been solid. After that group, however, this defense really is below average. Their defensive line is not very good, and while their secondary is talented, it is also young. As stated previously, it all starts up front, and the PSU defensive line will make or break this defense come Saturday. If OSU can get blockers out on the linebackers (which I think they will), then things could get ugly for the Nittany Lions, and the PSU faithful will again begin to whisper that Joe Pa's time has passed. Overall, the moxie that was present last year just doesn't seem to be present this year. Ohio State has a very good, efficient offense, and there is no way they have forgotten the 2005 loss in Happy Valley. The Buckeyes will get revenge this week in a big way, and continue on their journey towards a potential national championship. Big Ten season has arrived...can you feel the momentum building?
Overall Defensive Rating: B
2006 Penn State Nittany Lions Special Teams Preview
Returning Starters: 4
Special Teams play is a focus of both Coach Tressel and Coach Paterno, so look to see outstanding play from both sides come Saturday. Paterno's Lions have been excellent on special teams coverage this year, and have also excelled in returning kicks. Kicking the ball to the other team, however, has been a bit of a problem ... actually, kicking the ball at all has been a struggle. Outstanding coaching is integral to special teams play, and Penn State definitely has that. Look for the kicking game to improve, along with some speed and hard hitting when this game finally arrives.
Special Teams
P #36 Jeremy Kapinos (6-1 235 SR)*
PK#23 Kevin Kelly (5-7 173 SO)*
PR#2 Derrick Williams (6-0 201 SO)*
KR #8 Rodney Kinlaw (5-9 203 JR)*
LS #60 Patrick Weber (6-1 271 JR)
(* indicates returning starters)
Return Game:
While young, PSU's special teamers are pretty experienced. Most of the country recognizes the name of Derrick Williams; the speedster has had several fantastic returns already this year, but they were almost all called back because of penalties. Kinlaw has only returned two kicks so far, but one of them was a 50 yarder, so he is dangerous, as well. Meanwhile, Wallace is averaging 30.2 yards per return, so statistically, he is the best one of the bunch. Conclusion? Well, these speedy returners are talented, and they have the blocking to make things happen. The Lion's opponents have tried to mitigate the damage by kicking away from Williams, but Wallace (his long is 54 yards) and Kinlaw have also made them pay.
Williams will also return punts, but he is only averaging 9.8 in that department. While obviously a respectable number, it does not reflect his explosive ability. Williams has the speed and talent to change an entire game with one return. Luckily, Ohio State has an even better returner in Ginn, so that will hopefully mitigate William's potential. Anthony Scirrotto (#7, 6-0 190 SO) will also go deep for the Lions, but has only returned two so far this year (4.0 average).
Returner Rating: A
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State Returners
Speed, speed, speed. Both teams have it. Both teams use it. The determinig factor here will come down to which team gives their speedsters the better opportunity. Blocking and coverage will be huge in this game. PSU's Williams is very good, but Ginn is the best in the country. My gut tells me that Ginn is going to break out in this game ... he has yet to really excite us with a tremendous return, but we all know it is coming. If you're shopping for talent in this game, it can be found on both sides of the ball...but 7-11 is open 24-7, so I have to go with Gonzo and Ginn.
Edge: Ohio State
Kicking Game:
Penn State returns both their punter and their placekicker. In 2005, Kelly was the first placekicker since 1990 (Craig Fayak) to start for PSU as a true freshman. In 2005, he garnered third-team freshman All-American honors (Sporting News, collegefootball.com), and was second among Big 10 kickers in scoring (99 points, 5th overall in the conference). He seems to have a decent leg, as he has dropped 8 of his 17 kickoffs for touchbacks, and averages 59.4 yards per kick. He has also kicked two of those 17 kickoffs out of bounds, however, so accuracy seems to be an issue. His career long field goal is only 49 yards, and his field goal accuracy has been up and down. Kelly will be remembered by the Nittany Lion faithful for his game-winning 29 yarder (in triple overtime) to secure the win in last year's Orange Bowl, but consistency has been an issue. Against Youngstown State last week, Kelly was only 3 for 6, with all of his misses coming between 30 and 39 yards. For the season, he is 6 for 9, and has struggled of late. Additionally, the PSU field goal unit struggled coming into the YSU game. The long snapper, Jay Alford, and the holder, Jason Ganter, were both replaced (Weber and Kevin Suhey) due to some miscues in the first two games. Weber and Suhey seemed to do a better job last week, but that lack of confidence may have influenced some of Kelly's misses. The fact that both the holder and the snapper are struggling only adds to Ohio State's advantage.
Jeremy Kapinos handles the punting duty, and has also struggled. For the season, he is only averaging 34.1 yards per punt, and his season long is only 40 yards. PSU has excellent coverage, however, as his net yardage per punt is 31.1. Kapinos has only one touchback, and has managed to drop only two of his eight punts inside the 20 yard line.
Head-to-Head: Penn State vs Ohio State Kickers
Last week was a huge confidence booster for both of the Buckeye kickers, while Kelly struggled for the Nittany Lions. Trapasso clearly has a stronger leg than Kapinos, so this is an easy call.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Special Teams Analysis
Penn State has the speed necessary to be successful with the special unit. Williams is a huge threat, and he is surrounded by enough talent that kicking away from him is not necessarily a help. In all honesty, the PSU return game is almost on par with the Buckeyes'...but they cannot compete in the kicking and punting departments. Field position is a focal point to both coaches in this game, and Ohio State clearly has the better legs to ensure that advantage.
Overall Special Teams Rating: B-
Predictions
BB73's prediction: 34-16, Ohio State
BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 31-17, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 34 - 10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 35-16, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 38-14, Ohio State
daddyphatsac's prediction: 34-13, Ohio State
Deety's prediction: 34-10, Ohio State
FKAGobucks877's prediction: 34-17, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 42-17, Ohio State
LordJeffBuck's prediction: 33-16, Ohio State
osugrad21's prediction: 35-20, Ohio State
OSUsushichic's prediction: 33-13, Ohio State
PrincessPeach's prediction: ??-??, Ohio State
3yardsandacloud's prediction: 31-15, Ohio State
Last Week's Results (OSU 37 - Cincinnati 7)
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual score versus predicted score. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
(28) Bucklion's prediction: 35-10, Ohio State (2 + 3 = 5 + 23 last week)
(30) BB73's prediction: 38-13, Ohio State (1 + 6 = 7 + 23 last week)
(34) Deety's prediction: 41-6, Ohio State (4 + 1 = 5 + 29 last week)
(35) BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 28-10, Ohio State (9 + 3 = 12 + 23 last week)
(37) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 41-3, Ohio State (4 + 4 = 8 + 29 last week)
(37) osugrad21's prediction: 35-9, Ohio State (2 + 2 = 4 + 33 last week)
(39) OSUsushichic's prediction: 48-6, Ohio State (11 + 1 = 12 + 27 last week)
(40) PrincessPeach's prediction: 38-6, Ohio State (1 + 1 = 2 + 38 last week)
(40) FKAGobucks877's prediction: 38-6, Ohio State (1 + 1 = 2 + 38 last week)
(49) daddyphatsac's prediction: 38-10, Ohio State (1 + 3 = 4 + 45 last week)
(53) 3yardsandacloud's prediction: 45-12, Ohio State (8 + 5 = 13 + 40 last week)
(68) LordJeffBuck's prediction: 34-7, Ohio State (3 + 0 = 3 + 65 last week)
(33) jwinslow's prediction: 37-10, Ohio State (0 + 3 = 3 + 30 last week) 2nd week
(15) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 45-0, Ohio State (8 + 7 = 15 + DNP last week) 1st week
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