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2002 Defense vs. (potential) 2010 Defense

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BigJim

Hall of Fame
Here's a way too early comparison of what next year could be vs. what OSU had in 2002 (since this seems to be a hot topic in the 2009 defense thread).

Assuming everyone stays...

DL




2002:
  • DE Will Smith - 1st round (2004)
  • DT Tim Anderson - 3rd round (2004)
  • DE Kenny Peterson - 3rd round (2003)
  • DE Darrion Scott - 3rd round (2004)

2010 (estimates, help me out here):
  • DE Cameron Heyward - 1st round (2011)
  • DE Thad Gibson - 1st round (2011)
  • DT Dex Larimore - 3rd round (2011)
  • DE Nathan Williams - 5th round (2012)
I may be over-valuing Dex here. On the other hand, Simon may be a draft-caliber player by next year. Williams could easily end up better than a 5th round caliber but until he's more proven 5th seems like a better estimate. Will Smith was "only" the 18th pick. Cam could easily go top 10, so I think it's fair to say they cancel out at this point. Also, three of the 2002 players were drafted a year later in 2004 (so the draft status is a little less valuable) while only one would be 2012 next year. It's close, but...

DL Edge: 2010 slightly


LB




2002:
  • LB Cie Grant - 3rd round (2003)
  • LB Matt Wilhelm - 4th round (2003)
  • LB Rob Reynolds - 5th round (2004)

2010 (estimates, help me out here):
  • LB Ross Homan - 3rd round (2011)
  • LB Brian Rolle - 3rd round (2011)
  • LB Etienne Sabino - 5th round (2012)
This one is tough to project. I personally think Homan is the best LB on the team but I'm pretty sure most here think Rolle is. Sabino might have more potential than both of them. Will he reach his potential next year? Will he even be the third backer? So many questions here. I might be way over-rating them too.

LB Edge: 2010 slightly


DB




2002:
  • CB Chris Gamble - 1st round (2004)
  • SS Mike Doss - 2nd round (2003)
  • S Will Allen - 4th round (2004)
  • DB Donnie Nickey - 5th round (2003)

2010 (estimates, help me out here):
  • CB Chimdi Chekwa - 2nd round (2011)
  • S Jermale Hines - 4th round (2011)
  • CB Devon Torrence - 6th round (2011)
I feel pretty comfortable projecting Chekwa as a 2nd rounder but I'm not sure about Hines and Torrence. I'd project OJ or whoever else is the 4th DB as the equivalent of maybe a 9th or 10th rounder if that were possible, which isn't terrible. Regardless, unless someone really breaks out here, 2002 has a pretty big advantage for DBs.

DB Edge: 2002


I really think the draft rounds above translate pretty well into the relative values between the guys as college players. [Although if Moeller becomes as good of a Star position player as I think he can (like Hines was before the switch), that might not be caught by draft status.] Overall, to me it could go either way right now as far as projecting if 2010 will be better than 2002. The 2002 DBs look so much better at this point though that it's enough for me to think 2002 is better at first glance since the DL and LBs are pretty close.

Overall Edge: 2002 but stay tuned...
 
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I will shit bricks if Nathan Williams is drafted in the 5th round by the time he leaves. Also think Thad is a 2nd rounder. I wouldn't even bother trying to predict where people like Torrence would go. If Chimde does stay for his senior year, he'll go 1st round.
 
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BigJim;1589811; said:
Here's a way too early comparison of what next year could be vs. what OSU had in 2002 (since this seems to be a hot topic in the 2009 defense thread).

Assuming everyone stays...

DL




2002:
  • DE Will Smith - 1st round (2004)
  • DT Tim Anderson - 3rd round (2004)
  • DE Kenny Peterson - 3rd round (2003)
  • DE Darrion Scott - 3rd round (2004)

2010 (estimates, help me out here):
  • DE Cameron Heyward - 1st round (2011)
  • DE Thad Gibson - 1st round (2011)
  • DT Dex Larimore - 3rd round (2011)
  • DE Nathan Williams - 5th round (2012)
I may be over-valuing Dex here. On the other hand, Simon may be a draft-caliber player by next year. Williams could easily end up better than a 5th round caliber but until he's more proven 5th seems like a better estimate. Will Smith was "only" the 18th pick. Cam could easily go top 10, so I think it's fair to say they cancel out at this point. Also, three of the 2002 players were drafted a year later in 2004 (so the draft status is a little less valuable) while only one would be 2012 next year. It's close, but...

DL Edge: 2010 slightly


LB




2002:
  • LB Cie Grant - 3rd round (2003)
  • LB Matt Wilhelm - 4th round (2003)
  • LB Rob Reynolds - 5th round (2004)

2010 (estimates, help me out here):
  • LB Ross Homan - 3rd round (2011)
  • LB Brian Rolle - 3rd round (2011)
  • LB Etienne Sabino - 5th round (2012)
This one is tough to project. I personally think Homan is the best LB on the team but I'm pretty sure most here think Rolle is. Sabino might have more potential than both of them. Will he reach his potential next year? Will he even be the third backer? So many questions here. I might be way over-rating them too.

LB Edge: 2010 slightly


DB




2002:
  • CB Chris Gamble - 1st round (2004)
  • SS Mike Doss - 2nd round (2003)
  • S Will Allen - 4th round (2004)
  • DB Donnie Nickey - 5th round (2003)

2010 (estimates, help me out here):
  • CB Chimdi Chekwa - 2nd round (2011)
  • S Jermale Hines - 4th round (2011)
  • CB Devon Torrence - 6th round (2011)
I feel pretty comfortable projecting Chekwa as a 2nd rounder but I'm not sure about Hines and Torrence. I'd project OJ or whoever else is the 4th DB as the equivalent of maybe a 9th or 10th rounder if that were possible, which isn't terrible. Regardless, unless someone really breaks out here, 2002 has a pretty big advantage for DBs.

DB Edge: 2002


I really think the draft rounds above translate pretty well into the relative values between the guys as college players. [Although if Moeller becomes as good of a Star position player as I think he can (like Hines was before the switch), that might not be caught by draft status.] Overall, to me it could go either way right now as far as projecting if 2010 will be better than 2002. The 2002 DBs look so much better at this point though that it's enough for me to think 2002 is better at first glance since the DL and LBs are pretty close.

Overall Edge: 2002 but stay tuned...
Click to expand...

Some changes IMO,

I would change Thad Gibson to a likely first rounder in 2010. Next year, he will be replaced by Johnny Simon who is already a beast as a true freshman.

Nathan Williams, when all is said and done will be close to if not a first round pick in 2012....that is if he stays for his senior season.

Etienne Sabino has really come along these last two weeks.....but, we don't know about Tyler Moeller for next season just yet. Etienne is not a sure shot to start next year. We are that deep at LB. I agree....I like Ross Homan the most amongst the group.
 
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jazzman;1589884; said:
Some changes IMO,

I would change Thad Gibson to a likely first rounder in 2010. Next year, he will be replaced by Johnny Simon who is already a beast as a true freshman.

Nathan Williams, when all is said and done will be close to if not a first round pick in 2012....that is if he stays for his senior season.

Etienne Sabino has really come along these last two weeks.....but, we don't know about Tyler Moeller for next season just yet. Etienne is not a sure shot to start next year. We are that deep at LB. I agree....I like Ross Homan the most amongst the group.
Click to expand...

Thanks jazz. One thing though, Simon can't play WDE which is what Gibson plays. Maybe SDE. He plays mainly DT this year. Nathan Williams is the one that replaces Gibson.


OregonBuckeye;1589861; said:
I will [censored] bricks if Nathan Williams is drafted in the 5th round by the time he leaves.
Click to expand...

I can't tell if you mean that's too high or too low...
 
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I'd be pretty surprised if Nathan Williams is only a 5th round selection when he comes out. If Homan's play continues to improve, as I suspect it will, I think he's better than a 3rd rounder. Only knock on Rolle will be his height but he'll test great at the combine. Sabino hasn't had his chance to shine yet but I will be surprised if he's not better than a 5th round pick when his time comes.

That said I'd give the D-line edge to the 2002 group because of Will Smith. Best DE I've personally ever seen at Ohio State. As good as Thad is I don't think he's in Big Willie's league.
 
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BigJim;1589906; said:
Thanks jazz. One thing though, Simon can't play WDE which is what Gibson plays. Maybe SDE. He plays mainly DT this year. Nathan Williams is the one that replaces Gibson.
Click to expand...

You are right....my bad....he is a true DT....don't see him playing much on the edge.
 
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Chewbacca;1589910; said:
I'd be pretty surprised if Nathan Williams is only a 5th round selection when he comes out. If Homan's play continues to improve, as I suspect it will, I think he's better than a 3rd rounder. Only knock on Rolle will be his height but he'll test great at the combine. Sabino hasn't had his chance to shine yet but I will be surprised if he's not better than a 5th round pick when his time comes.

That said I'd give the D-line edge to the 2002 group because of Will Smith. Best DE I've personally ever seen at Ohio State. As good as Thad is I don't think he's in Big Willie's league.
Click to expand...

I kind of agree with all of your first section but I felt like it might be from homerism. I hope you're right though.

The second part, I brought up the Cam Heyward comparison exactly for that reason. Will Smith is what brought that group over the top and I think Cam Heyward can be that guy for OSU next year. There's a really good chance that Cam gets drafted higher than Will did. Not that where you get drafted is the end all be all for a variety of reasons (different classes, different needs for teams, etc.) but with his style of play (not a pure pass rusher), he's right up there with Will for me.
 
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Great analogy, and it's awesome to think about the possibilities if everyone stays for next year. I think Dex could be better than 3rd round with the year he started to have this year. And unfortunately, I don't see any way that Rolle is a 3rd rounder. Not a knock against the guy, but too small to get drafted that high.
 
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Some expect an NFL rookie salary cap for 2011. Within even credible rumors of it, I don't expect Heyward or Gibson to stick around. That would be a real bummer for a team, that otherwise, even with the expected minimal improvement from a more experienced but presumably philosophically unchanged offense would be likely to run the table (at least until the title game)
 
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BigJim;1589811; said:
Here's a way too early comparison of what next year could be vs. what OSU had in 2002 (since this seems to be a hot topic in the 2009 defense thread).
Click to expand...

Jim's premise, and the discussion that followed, was pretty reasonable. Still, as Buckeye fans, I think we tend to over-value the current players that we are so passionately rooting for. And that's the way it should be.

However, to be brutally honest, as far as predicting where current Buckeye defenders might be drafted, I suspect that only Cam Heyward has "first round" written all over him. That's not to say that others won't be drafted, I'm just saying we need to pay attention to what the League is looking for.

Talking to a father of a player currently in the NFL, he said the most notable change/trend is the demand for big speed. It's not enough to be fast, you must be big and fast. Likewise, it's not enough to be just big and strong--you must be quick, too. Frankly, the League is looking for athletic freaks.

I love Gibson and Rolle, but look at the size of what the NFL is drafting these days. In 2009, all the DE's drafted in the top rounds were 6'4" or 6'3". All the LB's drafted in the first rounds were 6'3" or 6'2". It's happening at nearly every position. Don't get me wrong, there's always room for extraordinary athletes who may be smaller than the norm--it's just that the NFL tends to go after big and fast first.

It will be interesting to examine this thread a year or two from now and evaluate the predictions. In addition, perhaps we might identify some new trends.
 
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