2002 Champions vs. 2005 Buckeyes - statistically

[DaddyBigBucks]

GAME 6 UPDATE

Through 6 games, this is how '05 stacks up to '02 statistically...


2005

Miami U::Texas::SDSU::Iowa::PSU::MSU

Opponent Defense:

• Total Defense: 352.84 ypg
• Scoring Defense: 20.83 ppg

OSU Offense

• Total Offense: 359.67 ypg
• Scoring Offense: 26.5 ppg

2005 OSU OFFENSE GAINS/SCORES

• 6.83 yards more than opponents give up on average
• 5.67 points more than opponents give up on average

Opponent Offense:

• Total Offense: 445.53 ypg (unbelievable)
• Scoring Offense: 34.88 ppg

OSU Defense

• Total Defense: 274.5 ypg
• Scoring Defense: 15.33 ppg

2005 OSU DEFENSE GIVES UP

• 171.03 yards fewer than opponents gain on average
• 19.54 points fewer than opponents score on average

2002

Texas Tech::Kent State::Wash State::Cincinnati::Indiana::Northwestern

Opponent Defense:

• Total Defense: 400.18 ypg
• Scoring Defense: 31.87 ppg

OSU Offense

• Total Offense: 410.00 ypg
• Scoring Offense: 36.00 ppg

2002 OSU OFFENSE GAINed/SCOREd (through 6 games)

• 9.82 yards more than opponents give up on average
• 4.13 points more than opponents give up on average

Opponent Offense:

• Total Offense: 399.98 ypg
• Scoring Offense: 26.97 ppg

OSU Defense

• Total Defense: 360.0 ypg
• Scoring Defense: 16.17 ppg

2002 OSU DEFENSE GAVE UP (through 6 games)

• 39.98 yards fewer than opponents gain on average
• 10.8 points fewer than opponents score on average

Clearly, through this point in the season, the 2005 defense has faced better competition and is faring better statistically against it. Bear in mind that at this point in the season the 2002 defense would play two more games before Chris Gamble was switched to full-time CB, and the real domination began.

As others have stated previously, this defense has yet to reach that level.

What this proves (to me), is that defense is not omnipotent. If defense alone won championships, this would be a National Champion team. It still stands a very good chance of being a Big 10 champion.

EDIT:

Will we look back on the 2005 season and think of the return-to-the-lineup and gradual return-to-form of Mike D'Andrea and Marcus Freeman as the "Chris Gamble" moment for this defense?

In other words, is it possible that, as good as this defense is; they will improve significantly with the return of our best depth at LB?

 

[Taosman]

Somebody should do a fumbles breakdown! Just to see the biggest offenders, so to speak. Just curious! We all know the QB handles the ball most. Not to rag on Smith.

Fumbles and turnovers are our biggest single issue!

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

This thread would be incomplete if it were not reported that Chris Spielman commented on this comparison on his radio show today.

He said that the 2005 defense is better than the 2002 NC defense. Out of respect for Mr. Spielman, this changes my opinion on the matter. I yield to #36 on all matters regarding defense.

For this reason I will dispense with the running talley of the stats. As far as I'm concerned, the conversation is over.

Considering where the Bucks are headed on Saturday, I hope that my respect for CS is spectacularly vindicated.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Chris may change his tune after Minnesota racked up 578 yards on our defense (499 against the first team).

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Chris may change his tune after Minnesota racked up 578 yards on our defense (499 against the first team).

Indeed. I for one will be tuning in to hear what sort of song he sings. No doubt he will have watched tape of the game.

EDIT: CS is not on his own show today, so I will offer my own defense of the defense.

Yardage Differential defense

• '05 defense gave up 76.75 MORE yards to Minnesota than they were averaging.
• '02 defense's WORST day on differential YPG defense was a -22.9 yards vs. Kent State (still more than opp. averaged, but better by over 50 yards)
• '05 defense STILL leads in differential yardage: 149 to 85.8

Scoring Differential defense

• '05 defense had its worst day to date in differential scoring defense, holding Minnesota just 4.88 points below their average.
• '02 defense had two games worse than that.
• '05 defense leads in differential score: 17.03 to 16

When you consider the 30 turnovers caused by the '02 squad, and their red-zone nastiness, they still get the nod.

There is however, no denying that the '05 squad is a very good defense. Let's not allow one bad half to cause us to turn on our team. We're not michigan fans.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Stats and differenital comparisons are cool and such, but they aren't always accurate comparisons. One reason why the 2005 defense compares favorably with the 2002 defense in differential yardage and differential score is that the other Big Ten defenses this year are worse than their 2002 counterparts, thus allowing 2005 Big Ten offenses to score at a higher rate than the 2002 offenses scored. Keep in mind that the 2002 defense allowed one single TD over than last 19 quarters of conference play in 2002 (from Larry Johnson's TD run in the first quarter of the PSU game through The Game). The scoring averages of each of those five teams entering their game with us, and their score against us:

Penn State: 37 ppg (7 points, 1 TD)
Minnesota: 34 ppg (3 points, 0 TD)
Purdue: 27 ppg (6 points, 0 TD)
Illinois: 30 ppg (16 points, 1 TD)
Michigan: 29 ppg (9 points, 0 TD)

Our first string defense gave up a total of six TDs in conference play in 2002. Our first string defense has given nine in our first five conference games this year, with those nine TDs coming in the last four games (well, one TD was the gimme 1 yarder, so let's just count eight). The 2005 defense is very, very good, but it's nowhere near the 2002 defense as a unit.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

End of regular season update

At the end of the regular season, here is how the 2005 team stacks up to 2002...

I have changed the analysis to factor out head-head matchups. In other words, take your opponents' average against everybody BUT you and compare this to YOUR production againt them.


Offensive Analysis

TEAM___TOTAL OFFENSE____Opp. DEFENSE___DIFFERENCE
2002______364.50 ypg________379.85 ypg____-15.35 ypg
2005______404.64 ypg________385.61 ypg_____19.03 ypg


TEAM___SCORING OFFENSE___Opp. DEFENSE___DIFFERENCE
2002_______29.29 ppg_________26.70 ppg_______2.59 ppg
2005_______32.55 ppg_________24.97 ppg_______7.57 ppg_


The defenses faced by the 2005 Buckeyes were a shade softer on yards but somewhat tougher in the scoring department than those faced by the 2002 squad. It comes as a surprise to no one on this board that the 2005 offense is significantly more powerful than was the 2002 version.


Defensive Analysis

TEAM___TOTAL DEFENSE___Opp. OFFENSE___DIFFERENCE
2002______320.86 ypg_______414.46 ypg______93.60 ypg
2005______275.27 ypg_______447.13 ypg_____171.86 ypg


TEAM___SCORING DEFENSE___Opp. OFFENSE___DIFFERENCE
2002_______13.07 ppg_________30.63 ppg______17.56 ppg__
2005_______14.82 ppg_________32.88 ppg______18.06 ppg__


The 2005 defense faced tougher offenses than did the 2002 team, especially yardage wise. They were much more powerful vs. yards than were the 2002 defense, but only a little better points wise. This is to be expected as the 2005 team was constantly put in tough situations by the offense's tendency to turn the ball over.


So there you have it. This team was more powerful on both sides of the ball than the 2002 team was, but was not as efficient by any measure.

With all of the complaints on Bucknuts during the NC run, it seemed that many people there thought that POWER yardage-wise was more important than the efficiency that defined the team. This is the sort of year they were asking for. While this has been a great year, I'll take 2002 over 2005 any day of the week and twice on Saturday.

One of these years, a Tressel-led Buckeye team will combine 2005 power with 2002 efficiency. That will be one for the history books.