Conference Champions Only
Conference.Team...........BCS...Rec...SOS...AP..Sagarin
ACC........Maryland........10...10-2...56....5....10
Big XII....Colorado.........3...10-3....4....9.....8
Big East...Miami Florida....1...12-0...27....1.....1
Big Ten....Illinois.........8...10-2...38...12....15
C-USA......Louisville......NR...11-2...84...17....27
MAC........Toledo..........NR...10-2..108...23....54
MWC........BYU.............NR...12-2...83...25....28
Pac 10.....Oregon...........4...11-1...26....2.....6
SEC........LSU.............13...10-3...20....7....11
Sun Belt...Mid. Tenn. St...NR....8-3..117...NR....74 *
WAC........Louisiana Tech..NR....7-5...77...NR....64
Note: We say goodbye to the Big West, and Hello to the Sun Belt.
* Middle Tennessee State shared the Sun Belt conference title with North Texas (5-7, BCS NR) and gets the nod here owing to better overall record.
The Brackets (Used the Big Ten basketball Tournament bracket as the model for an 11 team tournament) as before, seeds preceed the team name, actual BCS ranks in parens:
8 Louisville (NR) v. 9 Toledo (NR) winner to play 1 Miami Florida (1)
7 BYU (NR) v. 10 Middle Tennessee State (NR) winner to play 2 Colorado (3)
6 LSU (13) v. 11 Louisiana Tech (NR) winner to play 3 Oregon (4)
4 Illinois (4) v. 5 Marshall (10) winner to play winer of Miami Florida v. 8/9 game winner winner.
As with each preceding year, again we see no first round match which compels us to watch, and really there isn't a particularly "good" game (on paper) in the bunch. Even the 4 v. 5 sees a bit of a mismatch as Big Ten Champ Illinois matches off with MAC champ Marshall. Regardless of the winner in this game, an all but certain loss looms on the horizon with Miami of Florida, firmly in the middle of it's 34 game win streak (assuming, of course, that it would manage to beat either Louisville or Toledo in the interim.) It must also be noted that of the seasons considered to this point, there is the largest margin of teams playing out of position. Colorado, the actual BCS 3 seed, playing at 2 is the least of the worries as LSU plays as a 6 seed (when listed as BCS 13) and BY gaining the 7th seed despite a non BCS ranking (and a final rank, post bowl, of just 25 according to the humans, and 28 according to the computers.)
The second round also produces no "must see" contests. BYU or Middle Tennessee State against Colorado? Who is buying tickets for this game? LSU or Louisiana Tech v. Oregon holds some luster, as long as LSU was the winner of the first round game. Louisville or Toledo v. Miami would have been ugly, and that's being kind, likewise, as mentioned above already, Miami would not see much of a challenge from Illinois or Marshall in it's second round game. The likely semi-final of Oregon v. Colorado actually did play out in 2001, with Oregon winning that Fiesta Bowl 38-16. Oregon v. Miami for the championship. To Oregon's credit, unlike Nebraska (BCS #2) at least they won their conference. I doubt they would have had much for the 01 Canes, however.
Regardless, as is becoming all too obvious, a "fair" playoff format produces little to get excited about in the early rounds, and doesn't lend itself to establishing a different result than the what was the actual BCS Champion either.
Six Plus Two System
Conference.Team...........BCS...Rec...SOS...AP..Sagarin
ACC........Maryland........10...10-2...56....5....10
Big XII....Colorado.........3...10-3....4....9.....8
Big East...Miami Florida....1...12-0...27....1.....1
Big Ten....Illinois.........8...10-2...38...12....15
Pac 10.....Oregon...........4...11-1...26....2.....6
SEC........LSU.............13...10-3...20....7....11
Big XII....Nebraska.........2...11-2...29....8.....5 At Large 1
SEC........Florida..........5...10-2...23....3.....2 At Large 2
Before looking at the pairings, if you've read each season up until now, you should be getting a feel for a theme - love for the mid major is a relatively recent thing. As with the previous seasons the 6+2 format does nothing to help the mid major.
Pairings:
8 LSU (13) v. 1 Miamia Florida (1)
7 Maryland (10) v. 2 Nebraska (2)
6 Illinois (8) v. 3 Colorado (3)
5 Florida (5) v. 4 Oregon (4)
The bottom half of the bracket is playing out of position as only Florida has a seeding consistent with its BCS rating. Admittedly this credits the BCS formula, but then, we are also using that formula to find our at large contestants. In this respect, # 6 Tennessee, and #7 Texas would be none too pleased about being left out.
Other than being "out of position" on the low end of the seeding, the first round match-ups look OK generally, but assuming Colorado and Nebraska won their games, we see a rematch of Colorado v. Nebraska. Colorado beat the Huskers 62-36 on 11/23/01. And yet, in this format, Nebraska would be given another chance. Of course, the BCS system also gave 2001 Nebraska a shot at the title despite this same loss, so neither system proves "better" at accommodating Colorado. Though, it is possible Nebraska would have been upset by Maryland in the playoff format thus avoiding the issue. In any case, the Hurricane's look like a beer truck running down hill comparatively. In short, different teams, same result. Miami, National Champion. Again, anything could have happened. But, practically speaking, 2001 Miami had little else to prove, and I think you'll agree.
BCS Top 8
Conference.Team...........BCS...Rec...SOS...AP..Sagarin
Big East...Miami Florida....1...12-0...27....1.....1
Big XII....Nebraska.........2...11-2...29....8.....5
Big XII....Colorado.........3...10-3....4....9.....8
Pac 10.....Oregon...........4...11-1...26....2.....6
SEC........Florida..........5...10-2...23....3.....2
SEC........Tennessee........6...11-2....1....4.....4
Big XII....Texas............7...11-2...47....5.....3
Big Ten....Illinois.........8...10-2...38...12....15
Bubble Teams: 9 Stanford (9-3), 10 Maryland (10-2), 11 Oklahoma (11-2), 12 Washington State (10-2)
Truth is, 2001 is probably the best example of what is wrong with the BCS. You had Nebraska, failing to win their own division - not just their conference, mind you.. their division - and having been shellacked by Colorado by some 26 points, qualifying for the Title game against Miami. In this format, at least Colorado would have been afforded the opportunity. As would Texas, who beat up the Buffs 41-7 during the regular season (though they did lose to the Buffs in the Big XII title game 39-37 as well). Of course, on the Bubble is Oklahoma, who had beaten the Longhorns 14 - 3. Perhaps they deserved a chance too? It's hard to say (OU lost to Nebraska 20-10 on October 27, 2001 and did not play Colorado), but we can see that a playoff would not have offered much to settle the question.
Pairings see Illinois being destroyed by Miami, An interesting Nebraska v. Texas match (they did not play in 2001), Colorado v. Tennessee and Oregon v. Florida. Not a bad list of games, really, but as before, this format does nothing to help the beloved mid major and is no more principled than the current system, even if affording more teams perceived as excellent a shot at the title. In this format, Colorado and Oregon have the chance to establish they truly did warrant title consideration, though it seems quite plain Miami was simply heads and shoulders above the field in 2001 and I am doubtful that a 8 team playoff would have changed anything. Well, it would have changed one thing - distribution of wealth towards the Big XII, with the SEC once again offering 2 teams for consideration (although, funnily enough NOT the team which actually received the 2001 conference auto-bid, SEC Champion LSU)
Of course, anything else could have happened. To illustrate one possibility lets consider Colorado. In a different world, the Buffs may have been excited enough to beat Tennessee in the first round and Miami in the second in route to a Title match against the winner of Florida, Oregon, Nebraska or Texas. Of course, again, we saw 62-36 against Nebraska earlier in the year. A Colorado v. Texas match wouldn't just be a rematch, but a 3rd game in the same season. Colorado lost to Texas 41-7 in the regular season, but won in the Big XII title game 39-37. We know how Colorado - Oregon turned out (Oregon 38-16), but maybe Colorado - Florida would have been interesting. That said, it might as well have been Illinois getting hot, changing their 12/15 final rating in to a 1. I don't know about you, but there seems to be a big difference between the #1 rated team in the nation and the team that ends up 12th and/or 15th (AP/Sagarin). In a playoff that difference is determined in (a lucky?) 60 minutes. In the BCS, that difference is determined by your body of work over a whole season.
To close 2001, it seems that with Nebraska getting the actual nod despite not being champion of the Big XII, and with the Top 8 formula excluding SEC champ LSU, while including two other SEC teams, It seems if 2001 had a theme it could be represented by this rhetorical remark: "No Conference Title? Eh, who cares, no one can beat Miami anyway. Thanks for playing."
Link to Methodology
Link to 1998 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 1999 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2000 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2001 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2002 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2003 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2004 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2005 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2006 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2007 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2008 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to Conclusion
http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum/...arding-playoff-possibilities.html#post1383197
Conference.Team...........BCS...Rec...SOS...AP..Sagarin
ACC........Maryland........10...10-2...56....5....10
Big XII....Colorado.........3...10-3....4....9.....8
Big East...Miami Florida....1...12-0...27....1.....1
Big Ten....Illinois.........8...10-2...38...12....15
C-USA......Louisville......NR...11-2...84...17....27
MAC........Toledo..........NR...10-2..108...23....54
MWC........BYU.............NR...12-2...83...25....28
Pac 10.....Oregon...........4...11-1...26....2.....6
SEC........LSU.............13...10-3...20....7....11
Sun Belt...Mid. Tenn. St...NR....8-3..117...NR....74 *
WAC........Louisiana Tech..NR....7-5...77...NR....64
Note: We say goodbye to the Big West, and Hello to the Sun Belt.
* Middle Tennessee State shared the Sun Belt conference title with North Texas (5-7, BCS NR) and gets the nod here owing to better overall record.
The Brackets (Used the Big Ten basketball Tournament bracket as the model for an 11 team tournament) as before, seeds preceed the team name, actual BCS ranks in parens:
8 Louisville (NR) v. 9 Toledo (NR) winner to play 1 Miami Florida (1)
7 BYU (NR) v. 10 Middle Tennessee State (NR) winner to play 2 Colorado (3)
6 LSU (13) v. 11 Louisiana Tech (NR) winner to play 3 Oregon (4)
4 Illinois (4) v. 5 Marshall (10) winner to play winer of Miami Florida v. 8/9 game winner winner.
As with each preceding year, again we see no first round match which compels us to watch, and really there isn't a particularly "good" game (on paper) in the bunch. Even the 4 v. 5 sees a bit of a mismatch as Big Ten Champ Illinois matches off with MAC champ Marshall. Regardless of the winner in this game, an all but certain loss looms on the horizon with Miami of Florida, firmly in the middle of it's 34 game win streak (assuming, of course, that it would manage to beat either Louisville or Toledo in the interim.) It must also be noted that of the seasons considered to this point, there is the largest margin of teams playing out of position. Colorado, the actual BCS 3 seed, playing at 2 is the least of the worries as LSU plays as a 6 seed (when listed as BCS 13) and BY gaining the 7th seed despite a non BCS ranking (and a final rank, post bowl, of just 25 according to the humans, and 28 according to the computers.)
The second round also produces no "must see" contests. BYU or Middle Tennessee State against Colorado? Who is buying tickets for this game? LSU or Louisiana Tech v. Oregon holds some luster, as long as LSU was the winner of the first round game. Louisville or Toledo v. Miami would have been ugly, and that's being kind, likewise, as mentioned above already, Miami would not see much of a challenge from Illinois or Marshall in it's second round game. The likely semi-final of Oregon v. Colorado actually did play out in 2001, with Oregon winning that Fiesta Bowl 38-16. Oregon v. Miami for the championship. To Oregon's credit, unlike Nebraska (BCS #2) at least they won their conference. I doubt they would have had much for the 01 Canes, however.
Regardless, as is becoming all too obvious, a "fair" playoff format produces little to get excited about in the early rounds, and doesn't lend itself to establishing a different result than the what was the actual BCS Champion either.
Six Plus Two System
Conference.Team...........BCS...Rec...SOS...AP..Sagarin
ACC........Maryland........10...10-2...56....5....10
Big XII....Colorado.........3...10-3....4....9.....8
Big East...Miami Florida....1...12-0...27....1.....1
Big Ten....Illinois.........8...10-2...38...12....15
Pac 10.....Oregon...........4...11-1...26....2.....6
SEC........LSU.............13...10-3...20....7....11
Big XII....Nebraska.........2...11-2...29....8.....5 At Large 1
SEC........Florida..........5...10-2...23....3.....2 At Large 2
Before looking at the pairings, if you've read each season up until now, you should be getting a feel for a theme - love for the mid major is a relatively recent thing. As with the previous seasons the 6+2 format does nothing to help the mid major.
Pairings:
8 LSU (13) v. 1 Miamia Florida (1)
7 Maryland (10) v. 2 Nebraska (2)
6 Illinois (8) v. 3 Colorado (3)
5 Florida (5) v. 4 Oregon (4)
The bottom half of the bracket is playing out of position as only Florida has a seeding consistent with its BCS rating. Admittedly this credits the BCS formula, but then, we are also using that formula to find our at large contestants. In this respect, # 6 Tennessee, and #7 Texas would be none too pleased about being left out.
Other than being "out of position" on the low end of the seeding, the first round match-ups look OK generally, but assuming Colorado and Nebraska won their games, we see a rematch of Colorado v. Nebraska. Colorado beat the Huskers 62-36 on 11/23/01. And yet, in this format, Nebraska would be given another chance. Of course, the BCS system also gave 2001 Nebraska a shot at the title despite this same loss, so neither system proves "better" at accommodating Colorado. Though, it is possible Nebraska would have been upset by Maryland in the playoff format thus avoiding the issue. In any case, the Hurricane's look like a beer truck running down hill comparatively. In short, different teams, same result. Miami, National Champion. Again, anything could have happened. But, practically speaking, 2001 Miami had little else to prove, and I think you'll agree.
BCS Top 8
Conference.Team...........BCS...Rec...SOS...AP..Sagarin
Big East...Miami Florida....1...12-0...27....1.....1
Big XII....Nebraska.........2...11-2...29....8.....5
Big XII....Colorado.........3...10-3....4....9.....8
Pac 10.....Oregon...........4...11-1...26....2.....6
SEC........Florida..........5...10-2...23....3.....2
SEC........Tennessee........6...11-2....1....4.....4
Big XII....Texas............7...11-2...47....5.....3
Big Ten....Illinois.........8...10-2...38...12....15
Bubble Teams: 9 Stanford (9-3), 10 Maryland (10-2), 11 Oklahoma (11-2), 12 Washington State (10-2)
Truth is, 2001 is probably the best example of what is wrong with the BCS. You had Nebraska, failing to win their own division - not just their conference, mind you.. their division - and having been shellacked by Colorado by some 26 points, qualifying for the Title game against Miami. In this format, at least Colorado would have been afforded the opportunity. As would Texas, who beat up the Buffs 41-7 during the regular season (though they did lose to the Buffs in the Big XII title game 39-37 as well). Of course, on the Bubble is Oklahoma, who had beaten the Longhorns 14 - 3. Perhaps they deserved a chance too? It's hard to say (OU lost to Nebraska 20-10 on October 27, 2001 and did not play Colorado), but we can see that a playoff would not have offered much to settle the question.
Pairings see Illinois being destroyed by Miami, An interesting Nebraska v. Texas match (they did not play in 2001), Colorado v. Tennessee and Oregon v. Florida. Not a bad list of games, really, but as before, this format does nothing to help the beloved mid major and is no more principled than the current system, even if affording more teams perceived as excellent a shot at the title. In this format, Colorado and Oregon have the chance to establish they truly did warrant title consideration, though it seems quite plain Miami was simply heads and shoulders above the field in 2001 and I am doubtful that a 8 team playoff would have changed anything. Well, it would have changed one thing - distribution of wealth towards the Big XII, with the SEC once again offering 2 teams for consideration (although, funnily enough NOT the team which actually received the 2001 conference auto-bid, SEC Champion LSU)
Of course, anything else could have happened. To illustrate one possibility lets consider Colorado. In a different world, the Buffs may have been excited enough to beat Tennessee in the first round and Miami in the second in route to a Title match against the winner of Florida, Oregon, Nebraska or Texas. Of course, again, we saw 62-36 against Nebraska earlier in the year. A Colorado v. Texas match wouldn't just be a rematch, but a 3rd game in the same season. Colorado lost to Texas 41-7 in the regular season, but won in the Big XII title game 39-37. We know how Colorado - Oregon turned out (Oregon 38-16), but maybe Colorado - Florida would have been interesting. That said, it might as well have been Illinois getting hot, changing their 12/15 final rating in to a 1. I don't know about you, but there seems to be a big difference between the #1 rated team in the nation and the team that ends up 12th and/or 15th (AP/Sagarin). In a playoff that difference is determined in (a lucky?) 60 minutes. In the BCS, that difference is determined by your body of work over a whole season.
To close 2001, it seems that with Nebraska getting the actual nod despite not being champion of the Big XII, and with the Top 8 formula excluding SEC champ LSU, while including two other SEC teams, It seems if 2001 had a theme it could be represented by this rhetorical remark: "No Conference Title? Eh, who cares, no one can beat Miami anyway. Thanks for playing."
Link to Methodology
Link to 1998 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 1999 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2000 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2001 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2002 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2003 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2004 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2005 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2006 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2007 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to 2008 Playoff Hypotheticals and discussion
Link to Conclusion
http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum/...arding-playoff-possibilities.html#post1383197
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