http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/march-madness-crib-notes-for-thursdays-games/
March Madness Crib Notes For Thursday’s Games
IN DEPTH
VCU vs. Ohio State
Player to watch: D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State
VCU earned a well-deserved reputation over the past decade as the ultimate “giant killers,” culminating with a surprise Final Four berth in 2011. And it still does many of the things that successful underdogs specialize in: shooting a lot of threes and forcing a ton of turnovers, particularly via the steal. Anything that creates more variance gives the underdog a better chance of pulling an upset.
The trouble with VCU, though, is that it isn’t an underdog anymore; it is the establishment. VCU ranked as high as 14th in the Associated Press poll this season, and, even as a No. 7 seed, the customary expectation is at least a first-round win. The hunters have become the hunted — a status that doesn’t necessarily suit such a high-variance style.
Then again, according to our power ratings, VCU’s opening tilt against Ohio State is going to be an uphill battle for the Rams. The Buckeyes were badly underseeded at No. 10 in the West; as a comparison, our ratings have them ranked 18th … in the entire country. They’re one of only 12 schools to rank among the top 40 of Ken Pomeroy’s ratings on both offense and defense. And their freshman guard D’Angelo Russell was one of the most valuable players in the country this season, a backcourt dynamo for whom VCU has no counterpart without the injured Briante Weber in the lineup.
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