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'10 OH RB Erick Howard (Ohio U Walk-On)

BigJim;1878639; said:
You're seriously going to use the star ratings as evidence that it's not a debate whether the current players on the roster are better than Howard?

You're seriously going to be offended by someone assuming that Ohio University doesn't have much talent on their roster?

What else would you like to go on? The four players that have had drafted in the last 35 years? The six All-Americans (all probably honorable mention but I don't feel like looking into it) they have had in the last 30 years? The 8-54 record against BCS schools (Howard is a BCS caliber player)?
 
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ShakerBuck;1878649; said:
How about the fact that he was back-to-back Mr. football in Ohio. Only the 2nd player ever to do that.

If you're asking for my opinion, that would carry more water than throwing out star ratings, yes.

Still not enough for me to call it not a debate though. You can't end the debate by only addressing one side of the equation, it doesn't work that way.
 
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Buckeye86;1878653; said:
You're seriously going to be offended by someone assuming that Ohio University doesn't have much talent on their roster?

What else would you like to go on? The four players that have had drafted in the last 35 years? The six All-Americans (all probably honorable mention but I don't feel like looking into it) they have had in the last 30 years? The 8-54 record against BCS schools (Howard is a BCS caliber player)?

Easy now... I'm eligible to pay my OU alumni dues, I just choose not to. :)

Anyway, the statement was most talented player at the position, and I don't think there's much debate there. Pretty sure the Bobcats don't have (as previously mentioned) any other two time Mr. Footballs toting the rock, nevermind ones that rushed for 6K yards and 70+ TD's in HS.

And, I kind of intentionally brought up Boo Jackson on purpose because as I recall he was also either a JC or Prep transfer... and again, not a knock, but that's how OU has to get some guys that are very good on paper.

And, yeah, when they haven't played a down of D-I football, the star system is as good as anything... I don't think the issue with Mr. Howard is ability, and I hope things continue to go well for him.
 
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AKAKBUCK;1878658; said:
Anyway, the statement was most talented player at the position, and I don't think there's much debate there. Pretty sure the Bobcats don't have (as previously mentioned) any other two time Mr. Footballs toting the rock, nevermind ones that rushed for 6K yards and 70+ TD's in HS.

And, I kind of intentionally brought up Boo Jackson on purpose because as I recall he was also either a JC or Prep transfer... and again, not a knock, but that's how OU has to get some guys that are very good on paper.

And, yeah, when they haven't played a down of D-I football, the star system is as good as anything... I don't think the issue with Mr. Howard is ability, and I hope things continue to go well for him.

In my opinion, you're overestimating the predictability that high school production and star ratings have on the future of a college player while also underestimating just how much college players progress over the first 1-2 years in the program.

For example, if I had to place a real world version of NCAA '11 ratings on just how good Howard ends up being his first year vs. a random stable of backs that we might see at OU, I'd say it's:

Random stable:
72, 66, 64

Howard (range):
68-76
 
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OU's leading rushers for 2010:

RUSHING GP Att Gain Loss Net Avg TD Long Avg/G
Davidson, Vince 13 138 580 31 549 4.0 6 56 42.2 (graduated)
Bates, Phil 10 78 554 35 519 6.7 3 62 51.9 (QB/RS Senior)
Jackson, Boo 13 132 522 177 345 2.6 7 24 26.5 (QB/graduated)
Harden, Donte 7 51 257 13 244 4.8 3 48 34.9 (RS Senior)
Boykin, Ryan 11 41 215 2 213 5.2 3 27 19.4 (RS Soph)
Brown, Dallas 12 31 133 7 126 4.1 1 15 10.5 (Senior)
Goulet, Steven 13 8 79 0 79 9.9 0 23 6.1 (WR/graduated)

There's also RS freshman Ricky Pringle (6-0, 200, walk-on?) and OU also adds recruit Kyle Hammonds (5-9, 180?)

2-time Mr. Ohio who ends up at OU due to off-the-field issues has a pretty good chance at being OU's best RB the minute he steps onto campus.
 
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BigJim;1878675; said:
In my opinion, you're overestimating the predictability that high school production and star ratings have on the future of a college player while also underestimating just how much college players progress over the first 1-2 years in the program.

For example, if I had to place a real world version of NCAA '11 ratings on just how good Howard ends up being his first year vs. a random stable of backs that we might see at OU, I'd say it's:

Random stable:
72, 66, 64

Howard (range):
68-76

So, we're going with Video Game ratings rather than star ratings? Curious.

Either way, it's not a random stable of backs, it's these guys:

BayBuck;1878682; said:
OU's leading rushers for 2010:

RUSHING GP Att Gain Loss Net Avg TD Long Avg/G
Davidson, Vince 13 138 580 31 549 4.0 6 56 42.2 (graduated)
Bates, Phil 10 78 554 35 519 6.7 3 62 51.9 (QB/RS Senior)
Jackson, Boo 13 132 522 177 345 2.6 7 24 26.5 (QB/graduated)
Harden, Donte 7 51 257 13 244 4.8 3 48 34.9 (RS Senior)
Boykin, Ryan 11 41 215 2 213 5.2 3 27 19.4 (RS Soph)
Brown, Dallas 12 31 133 7 126 4.1 1 15 10.5 (Senior)
Goulet, Steven 13 8 79 0 79 9.9 0 23 6.1 (WR/graduated)

There's also RS freshman Ricky Pringle (6-0, 200, walk-on?) and OU also adds recruit Kyle Hammonds (5-9, 180?)

2-time Mr. Ohio who ends up at OU due to off-the-field issues has a pretty good chance at being OU's best RB the minute he steps onto campus.
 
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AKAKBUCK;1878685; said:
So, we're going with Video Game ratings rather than star ratings? Curious.

No, we're not.

The bottom line is it's not a given that Howard will automatically be the best RB on the roster. I would call it likely, and that's all that the comments so far have been supporting. You are way under estimating how much kids can improve once they get to college and way over estimating how much high school sucess translates to college ability. It translates on average, but when you get into calling it not a debate, looking at averages is no longer what is relevant. You now need to consider these projections as statistical distributions, not projections of the averages.
 
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BigJim;1880845; said:
No, we're not.

The bottom line is it's not a given that Howard will automatically be the best RB on the roster. I would call it likely, and that's all that the comments so far have been supporting. You are way under estimating how much kids can improve once they get to college and way over estimating how much high school sucess translates to college ability. It translates on average, but when you get into calling it not a debate, looking at averages is no longer what is relevant. You now need to consider these projections as statistical distributions, not projections of the averages.

tal?ent

n.

1. innate ability, aptitude, or faculty, esp when unspecified; above average ability

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/talent

Now, having said that, I appreciate what you are trying to say. Of course, in this situation, (and I used this particular definition intentionally) I'd guess that it's best to look at all the "talents" necessary to be a D-I football player. I suppose I was referring to his abilities as a Running back, but, of course, in the end of the day, statistically speaking, maybe none of it matters. If we're going to talk probabilities, maybe we need to talk about him getting a chance to play, first. And I hope he does.
 
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Whobebubba3;1886989; said:
Star rating means jack and so does Mr. Football, they are post season awards handed out by the press

Was Howard a good back in high school? Yes, but so was everyone of the backs at OU, that's why they are division 1 scholarship athletes...

Many of these backs have been IMPROVING over the past couple years working their tails off (year round) in a college program. I have no clue if this is the case with Howard, but since he is walking on at OU, I'd question it. Plus, if he was so TALENTED that he could walk on and be the best RB hands down, he'd be somewhere else.

To make such a statement is a slap in the face to all the player currently on the roster working their tails off.

Who is slapping OU players in the face?
 
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Mr. Football in Ohio means something. I'd be ignorant to say that he's the best back on OU's team only because I don't know diddly squat about OU's offense. I will say that I wouldn't be surprised to see him start there in the not so distant future based solely on what I know about Howard.
 
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