Now that it's closed, I'll explain how I calculated these odds, since some may find it worthy of discussion.
First, I obviously assmued that Kansas, Syracuse, and Ky were locks for #1 seeds, regardless of any bad loss in their conference tournaments.
I then gave odds to each of the other 6 contenders in winning their own conference tournament as follows:
30% for Duke and tOSU (same as the odds in those vBet threads)
17% for West Va, Purdue, Kansas St and Nova
Then I made a pecking order.
If Duke wins their tournament, they're a #1, regardless of other results
If Duke loses and West Va wins, WV gets a #1
If Duke and West Va lose and tOSU wins, tOSU gets the #1
If Duke and West Va lose and Purdue wins, Purdue gets the #1 (there'd be debate due to Hummel's injury)
If the 4 already mentioned all lose and K St wins, K State gets a #1
If the 5 already mentioned all lose and Nova wins, Nova gets a #1
If the 6 already mentioned all lose, it falls to Duke
Based on those assumptions, I crunched the numbers to create the odds for this vBet.
Then I gave some long odds for any other possibility (New Mexico, Maryland, etc.).
