Matt Tamanini
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You’re Nuts: What’s your boldest Ohio State prediction that you actually believe?
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
As preseason camp begins this week, Land-Grant Holy Land is diving into its final theme every week of the off-season. This week is all about making predictions that may or may not be reasonable, in fact, some might say they are bold. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Bold Predictions” articles here.
Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
It’s a little wild to start Heisman chatter around a quarterback who hasn’t even been officially named the starter yet, but if we had all the answers, it wouldn’t be a very bold prediction, now would it?
Still, with training camp officially underway, head coach Ryan Day said he hopes to announce his starter this coming week, and most of us are expecting it to be Will Howard, the transfer out of Kansas State.
I expect it won’t be the only time we hear Howard’s name as part of a much-anticipated announcement this season, either, as I am boldly predicting — before he has played a single down of football in an Ohio State jersey — that Howard will be a Heisman finalist this season.
Now, before you lose your mind and start screaming at me through the computer screen, I don’t think Howard will win the Heisman. But an invite to New York seems strongly within the realm of possibility.
Howard, the most veteran quarterback at an extremely talented position group, enters into his fifth year as part of an offense that should have most, if not all, pieces of the puzzle needed to be elite this season.
Coming from Kansas State, this puts him in a much more advantageous position. The Wildcats finished last season ranked No. 25 in the final CFP Top 25, with a 9-4 record. Howard started all 12 regular season games, going 219-of-357 for 2,643 passing yards and tying a school record for 24 touchdowns through the air. He added 351 rushing yards on 81 carries, with nine rushing touchdowns, good for All-Big 12 Second Team honors.
Kansas State was a good team, but Howard managed those numbers without the arsenal of weapons he’ll have at his disposal at Ohio State. He’s not CJ Stroud or Justin Fields, but with the guys he’ll have around him, he might not need to be. While he doesn’t have the arm to launch the ball down the field, he is an accurate passer, and his ability to stay calm in the moment means he can read the play without getting jumpy.
Oh, and he can run, which opens up options for the offense.
The offensive line, a group that struggled a bit in 2023, should be much improved this season, with Josh Simmons, Donovan Jackson, and Josh Fryar returning. This should give Howard more time to find his target and come up with big plays.
He’ll have his pick of receivers to choose from too. Emeka Egbuka headlines one of the best wide receiver groups in the country, along with Carnell Tate, true freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, and Brandon Inniss.
With this many targets for Howard to choose from, I’m anticipating a spike in his already-strong numbers this fall, putting him right up there with the best in the country. For context, the 2023 Heisman winner Jayden Daniels of LSU went 236-of-327 for 3,812 yards, 40 TDs, and only 4 interceptions. Howard was about 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns behind that (though he threw 10 interceptions, a number which would need to drastically decrease for him to be a finalist).
It shouldn’t be too tough to bring that down though, now that Howard has more skilled receivers to throw to. And as for adding more yardage and touchdowns, he should have more time on the field to do so given that the Buckeyes are expected to have an elite defense that should, in theory, get the offense back on the field faster.
Current betting odds have Howard in the top six Heisman candidates across most betting platforms. I’ve seen him as high as fourth. With a team that is expected to be dominant on both sides of the ball, Howard should have both the talent and the people around him to make him look good that he’ll need to secure his New York invite as a finalist.
Admittedly, I am recycling this bold prediction from earlier this year, when it was an unrealistic expectation that I had for this year’s Buckeye defense, but I truly believe that it is possible. Last season, OSU was second in the country allowing just 11.2 points per game. While last year’s schedule preseason schedule was 14th nationally (it finished last No. 7), this year’s slate of regular season games is rated 57th. Of course, that is forward-looking, so there is always the possibility — even likelihood — that teams will be markedly better than how they are projected.
Nonetheless, when it comes to projecting defensive output, it does look like an easier row to hoe coming into the season. There is no marquee out-of-conference game in this year’s schedule — OSU plays Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall — but new to the slate is legitimate national title contender Oregon in Eugene.
However, that is one of only four road games this year, as the Buckeyes will also travel to play Michigan State, Penn State, and Northwestern — the latter of which will be played in an oddly configured Wrigley Field for some ungodly reason. the rest of Ohio State’s biggest games — Iowa, Nebraska, and of course Michigan — will be played in the friendly confines of The Horseshoe. While that certainly doesn’t guarantee low-scoring affairs, it can’t hurt.
What also will certainly not hurt the Buckeyes’ quest to give up less than 10 points per game is the fact that this year’s defense appears to have only improved over last year’s impressive unit. The vast majority of starters from last year’s Silver Bullets have returned with Jack Sawyer, Denzel Burke, J.T. Tuimoloau, Lathan Ransom, Tyleik Williams, and others opting to return for another year in Columbus. Then, when you throw in the fact that the Buckeyes picked up the best safety in the country via the transfer portal in Caleb Downs, and you start to feel pretty good about their potential.
With another year of experience in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ system, Knowles not having to split his time between running the defense and coaching the linebackers (with James Laurinaitis now officially the LB coach), the added athleticism of Sonny Styles at linebacker, and the addition of Downs, there’s no reason to expect any sort of step back from the defensive unit. So why not go crazy and predict a single-digit points-per-game performance this season?
Seven of the 12 teams on the Buckeyes’ regular season schedule were ranked worse than 100th in points scored per game in 2023, and two others were at 87 and 90. If the Silver Bullets can hold those nine teams to an average of 7 points per game (which seems to be within the realm of possibilities), then they are off to a great start.
Then you’ve just got games against offensively competent teams Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan. Obviously, the Bucks didn’t play the Ducks last year, but they were one of the best offenses in the country, producing 44.2 ppg (good for second nationally), but that was with a Heisman finalist quarterback in Bo Nix, who is now playing for the Denver Broncos, and in the now defunct Pac-12 conference. Now, I am not going to predict that Oregon is going to somehow be unable to score, but, if OSU can hold them to 27 points (which seems reasonable-ish), that will give them room to potentially pull it off against the Nits and Corn and Blue.
Last season, PSU averaged 36.2 ppg, but only put up 12 against the Buckeyes. While last season’s game was in Columbus, this one will be in Happy Valley. So, it might be a bit unfair to expect the OSU defense to allow only the same number of points, especially with an even more experienced Drew Allar at quarterback, but let’s target that number for Penn State.
That would mean that in the regular season finale, Knowles’ unit would need to keep the defending national champions to 17 points or less to finish the season under 10 ppg. I honestly have no idea what to expect from TTUN this season, other to feel fairly confident that they won’t be nearly as good as they were last year. Not only is their head coach gone, but he took a bulk of their coaching staff, and last year’s squad was senior and veteran-laden, so the 2024 roster was always going to be one with significant changes, no matter what happened with the coaches.
While there is the threat of NCAA violations impacting the psychology of this team, I’m not figuring that into the puzzle at this point. But, given the turnover in the Michigan roster, the improvement in OSU’s defense, and the fact that the game will be played in Ohio Stadium, I think the Buckeyes can pull it off.
If all of that comes to pass, that would mean that Ohio State will average 9.916666667 points allowed per game this season, and while that would round up to 10 points per game, it would still be under the double-digit threshold.
Continue reading...
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
As preseason camp begins this week, Land-Grant Holy Land is diving into its final theme every week of the off-season. This week is all about making predictions that may or may not be reasonable, in fact, some might say they are bold. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Bold Predictions” articles here.
Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
Today’s Question: What’s your boldest Ohio State prediction that you actually believe?
Jami’s Take: Will Howard will be a Heisman finalist
It’s a little wild to start Heisman chatter around a quarterback who hasn’t even been officially named the starter yet, but if we had all the answers, it wouldn’t be a very bold prediction, now would it?
Still, with training camp officially underway, head coach Ryan Day said he hopes to announce his starter this coming week, and most of us are expecting it to be Will Howard, the transfer out of Kansas State.
I expect it won’t be the only time we hear Howard’s name as part of a much-anticipated announcement this season, either, as I am boldly predicting — before he has played a single down of football in an Ohio State jersey — that Howard will be a Heisman finalist this season.
Now, before you lose your mind and start screaming at me through the computer screen, I don’t think Howard will win the Heisman. But an invite to New York seems strongly within the realm of possibility.
Howard, the most veteran quarterback at an extremely talented position group, enters into his fifth year as part of an offense that should have most, if not all, pieces of the puzzle needed to be elite this season.
Coming from Kansas State, this puts him in a much more advantageous position. The Wildcats finished last season ranked No. 25 in the final CFP Top 25, with a 9-4 record. Howard started all 12 regular season games, going 219-of-357 for 2,643 passing yards and tying a school record for 24 touchdowns through the air. He added 351 rushing yards on 81 carries, with nine rushing touchdowns, good for All-Big 12 Second Team honors.
Kansas State was a good team, but Howard managed those numbers without the arsenal of weapons he’ll have at his disposal at Ohio State. He’s not CJ Stroud or Justin Fields, but with the guys he’ll have around him, he might not need to be. While he doesn’t have the arm to launch the ball down the field, he is an accurate passer, and his ability to stay calm in the moment means he can read the play without getting jumpy.
Oh, and he can run, which opens up options for the offense.
The offensive line, a group that struggled a bit in 2023, should be much improved this season, with Josh Simmons, Donovan Jackson, and Josh Fryar returning. This should give Howard more time to find his target and come up with big plays.
He’ll have his pick of receivers to choose from too. Emeka Egbuka headlines one of the best wide receiver groups in the country, along with Carnell Tate, true freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, and Brandon Inniss.
With this many targets for Howard to choose from, I’m anticipating a spike in his already-strong numbers this fall, putting him right up there with the best in the country. For context, the 2023 Heisman winner Jayden Daniels of LSU went 236-of-327 for 3,812 yards, 40 TDs, and only 4 interceptions. Howard was about 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns behind that (though he threw 10 interceptions, a number which would need to drastically decrease for him to be a finalist).
It shouldn’t be too tough to bring that down though, now that Howard has more skilled receivers to throw to. And as for adding more yardage and touchdowns, he should have more time on the field to do so given that the Buckeyes are expected to have an elite defense that should, in theory, get the offense back on the field faster.
Current betting odds have Howard in the top six Heisman candidates across most betting platforms. I’ve seen him as high as fourth. With a team that is expected to be dominant on both sides of the ball, Howard should have both the talent and the people around him to make him look good that he’ll need to secure his New York invite as a finalist.
Matt’s Take: Ohio State will give up less than 10 points per game in the regular season
Admittedly, I am recycling this bold prediction from earlier this year, when it was an unrealistic expectation that I had for this year’s Buckeye defense, but I truly believe that it is possible. Last season, OSU was second in the country allowing just 11.2 points per game. While last year’s schedule preseason schedule was 14th nationally (it finished last No. 7), this year’s slate of regular season games is rated 57th. Of course, that is forward-looking, so there is always the possibility — even likelihood — that teams will be markedly better than how they are projected.
Nonetheless, when it comes to projecting defensive output, it does look like an easier row to hoe coming into the season. There is no marquee out-of-conference game in this year’s schedule — OSU plays Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall — but new to the slate is legitimate national title contender Oregon in Eugene.
However, that is one of only four road games this year, as the Buckeyes will also travel to play Michigan State, Penn State, and Northwestern — the latter of which will be played in an oddly configured Wrigley Field for some ungodly reason. the rest of Ohio State’s biggest games — Iowa, Nebraska, and of course Michigan — will be played in the friendly confines of The Horseshoe. While that certainly doesn’t guarantee low-scoring affairs, it can’t hurt.
What also will certainly not hurt the Buckeyes’ quest to give up less than 10 points per game is the fact that this year’s defense appears to have only improved over last year’s impressive unit. The vast majority of starters from last year’s Silver Bullets have returned with Jack Sawyer, Denzel Burke, J.T. Tuimoloau, Lathan Ransom, Tyleik Williams, and others opting to return for another year in Columbus. Then, when you throw in the fact that the Buckeyes picked up the best safety in the country via the transfer portal in Caleb Downs, and you start to feel pretty good about their potential.
With another year of experience in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ system, Knowles not having to split his time between running the defense and coaching the linebackers (with James Laurinaitis now officially the LB coach), the added athleticism of Sonny Styles at linebacker, and the addition of Downs, there’s no reason to expect any sort of step back from the defensive unit. So why not go crazy and predict a single-digit points-per-game performance this season?
Seven of the 12 teams on the Buckeyes’ regular season schedule were ranked worse than 100th in points scored per game in 2023, and two others were at 87 and 90. If the Silver Bullets can hold those nine teams to an average of 7 points per game (which seems to be within the realm of possibilities), then they are off to a great start.
Then you’ve just got games against offensively competent teams Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan. Obviously, the Bucks didn’t play the Ducks last year, but they were one of the best offenses in the country, producing 44.2 ppg (good for second nationally), but that was with a Heisman finalist quarterback in Bo Nix, who is now playing for the Denver Broncos, and in the now defunct Pac-12 conference. Now, I am not going to predict that Oregon is going to somehow be unable to score, but, if OSU can hold them to 27 points (which seems reasonable-ish), that will give them room to potentially pull it off against the Nits and Corn and Blue.
Last season, PSU averaged 36.2 ppg, but only put up 12 against the Buckeyes. While last season’s game was in Columbus, this one will be in Happy Valley. So, it might be a bit unfair to expect the OSU defense to allow only the same number of points, especially with an even more experienced Drew Allar at quarterback, but let’s target that number for Penn State.
That would mean that in the regular season finale, Knowles’ unit would need to keep the defending national champions to 17 points or less to finish the season under 10 ppg. I honestly have no idea what to expect from TTUN this season, other to feel fairly confident that they won’t be nearly as good as they were last year. Not only is their head coach gone, but he took a bulk of their coaching staff, and last year’s squad was senior and veteran-laden, so the 2024 roster was always going to be one with significant changes, no matter what happened with the coaches.
While there is the threat of NCAA violations impacting the psychology of this team, I’m not figuring that into the puzzle at this point. But, given the turnover in the Michigan roster, the improvement in OSU’s defense, and the fact that the game will be played in Ohio Stadium, I think the Buckeyes can pull it off.
If all of that comes to pass, that would mean that Ohio State will average 9.916666667 points allowed per game this season, and while that would round up to 10 points per game, it would still be under the double-digit threshold.
Let us know who you are agreeing with:
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