Connor Lemons
Guest
What does the success of prior McDonald’s All-Americans mean for Aaron Bradshaw, Sean Stewart?
Connor Lemons via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Does the historical success of All-Americans from 2013-2022 bode well for Ohio State’s star sophomore transfers?
Prior to this summer, D’Angelo Russell was the last McDonald’s All-American to play for Ohio State — back in 2014.
One of the last truly elite recruits brought to Columbus by Thad Matta, Russell was a First Team All-Big Ten honoree his freshman season, averaging 19.3 points, 5.0 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game on 44.9% shooting (41.1% from three). He played a team-high 33.9 minutes per game, and was the second overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft by the Los Angeles Lakers.
Russell came into college with high expectations due to a top-tier basketball pedigree, and exceeded them by leaps and bounds. Not a single player has shown up on Ohio State’s campus over the past nine years with expectations that high. Sean Stewart and Aaron Bradshaw — both former McDonald’s All-Americans — are the first Buckeyes to have ceilings somewhat comparable to Russell in nearly a decade.
Neither incoming sophomore was nearly as productive as Russell was during his freshman season, but both carry that All-American distinction. If history tells us anything, that means one or both are in for huge seasons.
Since the 24 players who are selected to the McDonald’s All-American team each year are considered the best of their respective classes, it makes sense that those players have the highest likelihood of becoming elite college players and being selected in the NBA Draft shortly thereafter.
To get a better idea of the “hit rate” on All-Americans becoming top-level college players, I took a look at every McDonald’s All-American class since 2013, stopping at 2022 — the class before Stewart and Bradshaw.
To find a statistical measurement of success, I found the percentage of these players that wound up becoming all-conference players (either first, second, or third-team all-conference) or that were selected in the first round of the NBA Draft.
While these two classifications are specific and could certainly be expanded, they are both outcomes that would mean very promising things for Stewart and Bradshaw at Ohio State this season, should either find themselves in the conversation for All-Conference honors or a first-round NBA Draft selection next summer.
The results? 55% of McDonald’s All-Americans from 2013 to 2022 — 134 out of 241 — became All-Conference players in college. The highest percentage came from the 2013, 2014, and 2019 classes, which each saw 17 of the 24 players (25 in 2013) earn all-conference honors.
41.4% of McDonald’s All-Americans from 2013 to 2022 — 101 out of 241 — went on to become first-round NBA Draft selections. The highest percentage of draftees came from the 2014 class, which saw 15 of the 24 players selected in the first round and included players such as Myles Turner, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, and Devin Booker in addition to Russell.
The 2021-2022 classes combined to have 16 players taken in the first round, which was a noticeable drop from prior years. Part of the reason could be the growing influence of international talent in the NBA — there were 21 international players selected in the 2021 and 2022 drafts who did not play college basketball.
There were also six players drafted who opted to play in the G-League (G-League Ignite) in 2021 and 2022. It’s also important to note that some McDonald’s All-Americans from 2021 and 2022 are still in college and — while not likely — could still wind up as first-round picks, adding to these totals.
So, what do these numbers mean for Stewart and Bradshaw, exactly? How likely are one of them (or both of them) to become All-Big Ten players or turn into first-round NBA Draft selections?
Based on history alone, there’s a very high chance that either Bradshaw or Stewart becomes an All-Big Ten player for Jake Diebler at Ohio State. By utilizing a two-event probability calculator, there’s a roughly 79.75% chance that one of these two (or both) take home All-Big Ten honors, based purely on the odds over the past 10 seasons.
When you do the same calculation but for first-round NBA draftee odds, it drops marginally. There’s a 65.6% chance that at least one of them becomes a first-round pick, vs a 34.3% chance that neither make it in the first round.
While the historical figures are interesting, there’s a plethora of caveats to consider when looking at raw numbers that don’t take into account details of each individual player. Freshmen are most likely to be selected in the first round, and neither Bradshaw nor Stewart are freshmen. The older a college basketball player gets, the less likely they will be selected based purely on potential, since scouts have had more of an opportunity to see that potential play out on the floor — if someone wasn’t selected as a freshman or sophomore, it’s tough to suddenly be viewed as NBA-caliber as an upperclassman.
It’s also fun to take into consideration what Ohio State fans would like to see. If Bradshaw or Stewart play well, fans will want to see them back in Columbus as juniors. The best upperclassmen in college basketball each year (older players) are typically a group that earns All-Conference honors but aren’t on NBA scouts radars for one reason or another.
Buckeye fans would love to see Bradshaw and Stewart play well enough to earn All-Big Ten honors, but simultaneously would also want them both to return as juniors if that was the case.
It’s been a long time since Ohio State has had the level of raw talent on the roster as the 2024-25 team will. The numbers — while they are just that, numbers — say that the two former blue-bloods and blue-chippers could be on track to do big things this year for Diebler’s first Ohio State team.
Continue reading...
Connor Lemons via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Does the historical success of All-Americans from 2013-2022 bode well for Ohio State’s star sophomore transfers?
Prior to this summer, D’Angelo Russell was the last McDonald’s All-American to play for Ohio State — back in 2014.
One of the last truly elite recruits brought to Columbus by Thad Matta, Russell was a First Team All-Big Ten honoree his freshman season, averaging 19.3 points, 5.0 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game on 44.9% shooting (41.1% from three). He played a team-high 33.9 minutes per game, and was the second overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft by the Los Angeles Lakers.
Russell came into college with high expectations due to a top-tier basketball pedigree, and exceeded them by leaps and bounds. Not a single player has shown up on Ohio State’s campus over the past nine years with expectations that high. Sean Stewart and Aaron Bradshaw — both former McDonald’s All-Americans — are the first Buckeyes to have ceilings somewhat comparable to Russell in nearly a decade.
Neither incoming sophomore was nearly as productive as Russell was during his freshman season, but both carry that All-American distinction. If history tells us anything, that means one or both are in for huge seasons.
Since the 24 players who are selected to the McDonald’s All-American team each year are considered the best of their respective classes, it makes sense that those players have the highest likelihood of becoming elite college players and being selected in the NBA Draft shortly thereafter.
To get a better idea of the “hit rate” on All-Americans becoming top-level college players, I took a look at every McDonald’s All-American class since 2013, stopping at 2022 — the class before Stewart and Bradshaw.
To find a statistical measurement of success, I found the percentage of these players that wound up becoming all-conference players (either first, second, or third-team all-conference) or that were selected in the first round of the NBA Draft.
While these two classifications are specific and could certainly be expanded, they are both outcomes that would mean very promising things for Stewart and Bradshaw at Ohio State this season, should either find themselves in the conversation for All-Conference honors or a first-round NBA Draft selection next summer.
The results? 55% of McDonald’s All-Americans from 2013 to 2022 — 134 out of 241 — became All-Conference players in college. The highest percentage came from the 2013, 2014, and 2019 classes, which each saw 17 of the 24 players (25 in 2013) earn all-conference honors.
41.4% of McDonald’s All-Americans from 2013 to 2022 — 101 out of 241 — went on to become first-round NBA Draft selections. The highest percentage of draftees came from the 2014 class, which saw 15 of the 24 players selected in the first round and included players such as Myles Turner, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, and Devin Booker in addition to Russell.
The 2021-2022 classes combined to have 16 players taken in the first round, which was a noticeable drop from prior years. Part of the reason could be the growing influence of international talent in the NBA — there were 21 international players selected in the 2021 and 2022 drafts who did not play college basketball.
There were also six players drafted who opted to play in the G-League (G-League Ignite) in 2021 and 2022. It’s also important to note that some McDonald’s All-Americans from 2021 and 2022 are still in college and — while not likely — could still wind up as first-round picks, adding to these totals.
So, what do these numbers mean for Stewart and Bradshaw, exactly? How likely are one of them (or both of them) to become All-Big Ten players or turn into first-round NBA Draft selections?
Based on history alone, there’s a very high chance that either Bradshaw or Stewart becomes an All-Big Ten player for Jake Diebler at Ohio State. By utilizing a two-event probability calculator, there’s a roughly 79.75% chance that one of these two (or both) take home All-Big Ten honors, based purely on the odds over the past 10 seasons.
When you do the same calculation but for first-round NBA draftee odds, it drops marginally. There’s a 65.6% chance that at least one of them becomes a first-round pick, vs a 34.3% chance that neither make it in the first round.
While the historical figures are interesting, there’s a plethora of caveats to consider when looking at raw numbers that don’t take into account details of each individual player. Freshmen are most likely to be selected in the first round, and neither Bradshaw nor Stewart are freshmen. The older a college basketball player gets, the less likely they will be selected based purely on potential, since scouts have had more of an opportunity to see that potential play out on the floor — if someone wasn’t selected as a freshman or sophomore, it’s tough to suddenly be viewed as NBA-caliber as an upperclassman.
It’s also fun to take into consideration what Ohio State fans would like to see. If Bradshaw or Stewart play well, fans will want to see them back in Columbus as juniors. The best upperclassmen in college basketball each year (older players) are typically a group that earns All-Conference honors but aren’t on NBA scouts radars for one reason or another.
Buckeye fans would love to see Bradshaw and Stewart play well enough to earn All-Big Ten honors, but simultaneously would also want them both to return as juniors if that was the case.
It’s been a long time since Ohio State has had the level of raw talent on the roster as the 2024-25 team will. The numbers — while they are just that, numbers — say that the two former blue-bloods and blue-chippers could be on track to do big things this year for Diebler’s first Ohio State team.
Continue reading...