Gene Ross
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Using CFB 25 to predict the College Football Playoff
Gene Ross via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images
Who will the computers crown as this year’s national champion?
College football finally returned to the virtual world in 2024 with the release of EA Sports College Football 25, allowing fans of all 134 FBS schools to take control of their favorite team. For Buckeye Nation, that means getting to dominate with one of the best rosters in the game.
The new game also allows us to get a glimpse at what the season could look like, at least if the computers had their say. Each week, Land-Grant Holy Land will simulate Ohio State’s real-life matchup to see what our AI overlords think will happen.
With the Buckeyes still a week away from returning to this field, this weekend we will use CFB 25 to predict the entire 12-team College Football Playoff. Each matchup was simulated only one time using the correct home/bowl game locations, and we used each of those results to eventually crown a national champion.
Here is how it all went down, presented in chronological order of the real game dates/times...
Indiana 52 - Notre Dame 38
On Friday night in South Bend, No. 10 Indiana went on the road and defeated No. 7 Notre Dame. The Hoosiers dominated right from the start, jumping out to a 31-10 lead by halftime. Kurtis Rourke had a sensational game, throwing for 327 yards and six touchdowns, with Elijah Sarratt his favorite target with six catches for 97 yards and three scores. Notre Dame scored 21 of its 38 points in the fourth quarter, and the Irish finished 3-of-11 on third down.
SMU 41 - Penn State 42
Saturday kicked off with a banger, as No. 6 Penn State narrowly avoided the upset at home with a one-point win over No. 11 SMU. The Nittany Lions trailed 38-28 entering the fourth quarter, but a pair of Drew Allar touchdown passes, including one to Liam Clifford with 43 seconds remaining, earned Penn State the victory. Both Allar and SMU QB Kevin Jennings threw for more than 300 yards, and Tyler Warren stood out with 68 receiving yards and two TDs. The Nittany Lions averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a team.
Clemson 32 - Texas 35
The noon game was followed up by another close contest, as No. 5 Texas needed a second half rally to overcome No. 12 Clemson in Austin. The Longhorns put together a 21-point third quarter to take the lead, but the Tigers went back on top midway through the fourth quarter after scoring 15 unanswered points. Quinn Ewers would find Gunnar Helm on a 12-yard TD pass with four minutes remaining to regain the lead for good, as Ewers finished with 321 yards passing and five touchdowns overall. Each starting quarterback threw two picks in the game.
Tennessee 38 - Ohio State 31
Even though no real head coaches are in the game, it sure looked like virtual No. 8 Ohio State was coached by Ryan Day in a first round loss to No. 9 Tennessee. The Buckeyes got out to their customary slow start, falling behind 24-10 at the half, but battled back to tie things up in the fourth quarter. With 1:32 to go, Nico Iamaleava hit Dont’e Thornton on a 47-yard TD pass that would wind up as the game-winner. Iamaleava finished the night with five touchdown passes, but Ohio State actually out-gained Tennessee 428-382. Will Howard threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns.
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State 32 - Boise State 21
Penn State advanced to the semifinals with a 32-21 win over Boise State in the lone New Year’s Eve CFP matchup in the Fiesta Bowl. The Nittany Lions trailed 10-9 at the midway point after three first-half field goals, but would finally score their first touchdown of the game in the third quarter to take the lead. The two sides would find themselves tied 18-18 entering the final frame, but a pair of touchdowns by Clifford and Warren proved too much for the Broncos to overcome. Penn State managed to hold Ashton Jeanty to 83 yards on 15 carries.
Peach Bowl: Texas 54 - Arizona State 52 (3OT)
New Years Day got off to an insane start, with Texas getting the best of Arizona State in a triple-overtime thriller. The Sun Devils led 28-14 early in the third quarter, but the Longhorns stormed all the way back and took a 35-28 lead by the middle of the fourth quarter. ASU re-tied the game on an 82-yard punt return TD by Melquan Stovall, and from there we headed to overtime.
Both teams threw for touchdowns in the first OT, and both teams had to settle for a field goal in double-overtime. Arizona State failed on its ensuing two-point try in 3OT, and Quinn Ewers ran it in to secure the win for Texas on its possession. Ewers threw for 478 yards and six touchdowns, while Cam Skattebo did his best for ASU with 173 yards rushing and two scores.
Rose Bowl: Tennessee 38 - Oregon 31
The Volunteers continued their Cinderella run with a second-straight win by the exact same score, this time against Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Tennessee scored the first 14 points of the game and led 24-14 at the half, but the Ducks managed to tie it up a 31 apiece with only six minutes left in the contest. With 28 seconds to go, Iamaleava ripped off a 24-yard touchdown run to secure a stunning victory for Tennessee.
Iamaleava attempted only 15 passes, but threw for 257 yards and two scores while adding 70 yards with his legs. Both teams ran for more than 200 yards, with Oregon’s Noah Whittington going off for 151 yards and two TDs on 14 carries and Dylan Sampson totaling 145 yards on 19 carries and two scores.
Sugar Bowl: Indiana 22 - Georgia 14
As the lowest remaining seed in the field, Curt Cignetti got the whole college football world Googling him with a huge win over Georgia in New Orleans. The Hoosiers only scored one touchdown in the game, kicking five field goals en route to victory — four of which were from at least 42 yards out. Indiana’s lone touchdown, which gave them a lead in the third quarter, was a 81-yard catch-and-run score by Sarratt. Georgia actually had the football with 1:08 to play and a chance to tie the game from Indiana’s 3-yard line, but an incomplete pass on fourth down sealed the deal.
The Bulldogs actually out-gained the Hoosiers in the game 437-320, but were awful in the red zone and even worse on third down, where they finished the game converting on just three of their 13 tries (not that Indiana was much better on third down at 5-of-17). Carson Beck threw for 204 yards with one TD and a pick, while Rourke threw for 285 yards with one TD and a pick as well.
Orange Bowl: Indiana 20 - Penn State 28
We got a good ole fashioned Big Ten matchup in the CFP Semifinals, and it was Penn State emerging victorious to advance to the national title game.
Despite the Hoosiers out-gaining Penn State 460-336, Indiana turned the ball over three times. The Nittany Lions jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter on a pair of Nicholas Singleton touchdown runs, but Cignetti’s group made it a 14-10 game by halftime. Penn State tacked on with a short Allar TD run to begin the fourth quarter after both teams went scoreless in the third, and from there it was too little too late for the Hoosiers.
Allar finished with only 141 yards passing and two TDs, but Singleton kept the offense churning with 124 yards rushing and two TDs on the ground. Rourke, meanwhile threw for 327 yards but also had a trio of interceptions to go along with his two TDs. Indiana actually never entered the red zone in this game, with both of its touchdowns coming from more than 30 yards out. Penn State averaged 5.2 yards per carry as a team.
Cotton Bowl: Tennessee 34 - Texas 31
Two orange-clad units met in Arlington with a spot in the national title game on the line, and Tennessee proved the stronger of the SEC duo.
It was a back-and-forth affair throughout, with Tennessee jumping out to a 10-0 lead to begin the second quarter. Texas took the lead by halftime on a pair of Quinn Ewers TD passes to make it 14-10, and further extended that lead in the third quarter on a Jaydon Blue TD run and a short field goal. Now trailing 24-10, the Volunteers stormed back on a pair of long Dylan Sampson TD runs of 33 and 41 yards to tie it up. The Longhorns regained the lead on a 36-yard Isaiah Bond TD catch, but after a 33-yard Tennessee field goal, Iamaleava scored a game-winning touchdown with 52 seconds left.
Texas gained most of its yards through the air, with Ewers finishing 27-of-42 for 356 yards and three TDs with one pick. Tennessee, meanwhile, ran for 197 yards as a team, with Sampson accounting for 131 yards on 18 carries with two scores. Iamaleava was efficient throwing the football, completing 26-of-32 passes for 258 yards and a TD. Bru McCoy had a big day through the air with seven catches for 101 yards.
Penn State 23 - Tennessee 8
In an unlikely title game matchup, Penn State dominated en route to the program’s third national championship. It was a much lower scoring affair than most of the CFP games before it, as perhaps the grind of the 12-team field took its toll on two teams that did not receive a Round 1 bye.
Neither team would get on the scoreboard until the second quarter, where Kaytron Allen’s 1-yard TD run broke the scoreless tie. Penn State would add a field goal to take a 10-0 lead into halftime, and quickly added to that lead with a 4-yard TD by Liam Clifford to begin the third quarter. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter that Tennessee would score its lone touchdown, an 11-yard score from Iamaleava to Holden Staes plus a successful two-point conversion to make it 17-8. Penn State added a short Tyler Warren TD midway through the quarter but missed the extra point, and the 23-8 score would hold until the end.
Penn State significantly out-gained Tennessee, 408-270. The Nittany Lions’ rushing attack really showed out, as they ran for 231 yards on 5.4 yards per carry as a team. Singleton ran for 89 yards on 18 carries, and Allen totaled 126 yards on 15 carries with the lone TD. Allar had a quiet passing game, throwing for 167 yards and two TDs, as his running backs really paved the way for the victory. Iamaleava threw for 193 yards with a TD and a pick, and Sampson was held to just 40 yards on 17 carries. PSU held the ball for virtually the entire game, finishing with 38:57 of possession time.
Continue reading...
Gene Ross via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images
Who will the computers crown as this year’s national champion?
College football finally returned to the virtual world in 2024 with the release of EA Sports College Football 25, allowing fans of all 134 FBS schools to take control of their favorite team. For Buckeye Nation, that means getting to dominate with one of the best rosters in the game.
The new game also allows us to get a glimpse at what the season could look like, at least if the computers had their say. Each week, Land-Grant Holy Land will simulate Ohio State’s real-life matchup to see what our AI overlords think will happen.
With the Buckeyes still a week away from returning to this field, this weekend we will use CFB 25 to predict the entire 12-team College Football Playoff. Each matchup was simulated only one time using the correct home/bowl game locations, and we used each of those results to eventually crown a national champion.
Here is how it all went down, presented in chronological order of the real game dates/times...
Round 1
Indiana 52 - Notre Dame 38
On Friday night in South Bend, No. 10 Indiana went on the road and defeated No. 7 Notre Dame. The Hoosiers dominated right from the start, jumping out to a 31-10 lead by halftime. Kurtis Rourke had a sensational game, throwing for 327 yards and six touchdowns, with Elijah Sarratt his favorite target with six catches for 97 yards and three scores. Notre Dame scored 21 of its 38 points in the fourth quarter, and the Irish finished 3-of-11 on third down.
SMU 41 - Penn State 42
Saturday kicked off with a banger, as No. 6 Penn State narrowly avoided the upset at home with a one-point win over No. 11 SMU. The Nittany Lions trailed 38-28 entering the fourth quarter, but a pair of Drew Allar touchdown passes, including one to Liam Clifford with 43 seconds remaining, earned Penn State the victory. Both Allar and SMU QB Kevin Jennings threw for more than 300 yards, and Tyler Warren stood out with 68 receiving yards and two TDs. The Nittany Lions averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a team.
Clemson 32 - Texas 35
The noon game was followed up by another close contest, as No. 5 Texas needed a second half rally to overcome No. 12 Clemson in Austin. The Longhorns put together a 21-point third quarter to take the lead, but the Tigers went back on top midway through the fourth quarter after scoring 15 unanswered points. Quinn Ewers would find Gunnar Helm on a 12-yard TD pass with four minutes remaining to regain the lead for good, as Ewers finished with 321 yards passing and five touchdowns overall. Each starting quarterback threw two picks in the game.
Tennessee 38 - Ohio State 31
Even though no real head coaches are in the game, it sure looked like virtual No. 8 Ohio State was coached by Ryan Day in a first round loss to No. 9 Tennessee. The Buckeyes got out to their customary slow start, falling behind 24-10 at the half, but battled back to tie things up in the fourth quarter. With 1:32 to go, Nico Iamaleava hit Dont’e Thornton on a 47-yard TD pass that would wind up as the game-winner. Iamaleava finished the night with five touchdown passes, but Ohio State actually out-gained Tennessee 428-382. Will Howard threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns.
Quarterfinals
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State 32 - Boise State 21
Penn State advanced to the semifinals with a 32-21 win over Boise State in the lone New Year’s Eve CFP matchup in the Fiesta Bowl. The Nittany Lions trailed 10-9 at the midway point after three first-half field goals, but would finally score their first touchdown of the game in the third quarter to take the lead. The two sides would find themselves tied 18-18 entering the final frame, but a pair of touchdowns by Clifford and Warren proved too much for the Broncos to overcome. Penn State managed to hold Ashton Jeanty to 83 yards on 15 carries.
Peach Bowl: Texas 54 - Arizona State 52 (3OT)
New Years Day got off to an insane start, with Texas getting the best of Arizona State in a triple-overtime thriller. The Sun Devils led 28-14 early in the third quarter, but the Longhorns stormed all the way back and took a 35-28 lead by the middle of the fourth quarter. ASU re-tied the game on an 82-yard punt return TD by Melquan Stovall, and from there we headed to overtime.
Both teams threw for touchdowns in the first OT, and both teams had to settle for a field goal in double-overtime. Arizona State failed on its ensuing two-point try in 3OT, and Quinn Ewers ran it in to secure the win for Texas on its possession. Ewers threw for 478 yards and six touchdowns, while Cam Skattebo did his best for ASU with 173 yards rushing and two scores.
Rose Bowl: Tennessee 38 - Oregon 31
The Volunteers continued their Cinderella run with a second-straight win by the exact same score, this time against Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Tennessee scored the first 14 points of the game and led 24-14 at the half, but the Ducks managed to tie it up a 31 apiece with only six minutes left in the contest. With 28 seconds to go, Iamaleava ripped off a 24-yard touchdown run to secure a stunning victory for Tennessee.
Iamaleava attempted only 15 passes, but threw for 257 yards and two scores while adding 70 yards with his legs. Both teams ran for more than 200 yards, with Oregon’s Noah Whittington going off for 151 yards and two TDs on 14 carries and Dylan Sampson totaling 145 yards on 19 carries and two scores.
Sugar Bowl: Indiana 22 - Georgia 14
As the lowest remaining seed in the field, Curt Cignetti got the whole college football world Googling him with a huge win over Georgia in New Orleans. The Hoosiers only scored one touchdown in the game, kicking five field goals en route to victory — four of which were from at least 42 yards out. Indiana’s lone touchdown, which gave them a lead in the third quarter, was a 81-yard catch-and-run score by Sarratt. Georgia actually had the football with 1:08 to play and a chance to tie the game from Indiana’s 3-yard line, but an incomplete pass on fourth down sealed the deal.
The Bulldogs actually out-gained the Hoosiers in the game 437-320, but were awful in the red zone and even worse on third down, where they finished the game converting on just three of their 13 tries (not that Indiana was much better on third down at 5-of-17). Carson Beck threw for 204 yards with one TD and a pick, while Rourke threw for 285 yards with one TD and a pick as well.
Semifinals
Orange Bowl: Indiana 20 - Penn State 28
We got a good ole fashioned Big Ten matchup in the CFP Semifinals, and it was Penn State emerging victorious to advance to the national title game.
Despite the Hoosiers out-gaining Penn State 460-336, Indiana turned the ball over three times. The Nittany Lions jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter on a pair of Nicholas Singleton touchdown runs, but Cignetti’s group made it a 14-10 game by halftime. Penn State tacked on with a short Allar TD run to begin the fourth quarter after both teams went scoreless in the third, and from there it was too little too late for the Hoosiers.
Allar finished with only 141 yards passing and two TDs, but Singleton kept the offense churning with 124 yards rushing and two TDs on the ground. Rourke, meanwhile threw for 327 yards but also had a trio of interceptions to go along with his two TDs. Indiana actually never entered the red zone in this game, with both of its touchdowns coming from more than 30 yards out. Penn State averaged 5.2 yards per carry as a team.
Cotton Bowl: Tennessee 34 - Texas 31
Two orange-clad units met in Arlington with a spot in the national title game on the line, and Tennessee proved the stronger of the SEC duo.
It was a back-and-forth affair throughout, with Tennessee jumping out to a 10-0 lead to begin the second quarter. Texas took the lead by halftime on a pair of Quinn Ewers TD passes to make it 14-10, and further extended that lead in the third quarter on a Jaydon Blue TD run and a short field goal. Now trailing 24-10, the Volunteers stormed back on a pair of long Dylan Sampson TD runs of 33 and 41 yards to tie it up. The Longhorns regained the lead on a 36-yard Isaiah Bond TD catch, but after a 33-yard Tennessee field goal, Iamaleava scored a game-winning touchdown with 52 seconds left.
Texas gained most of its yards through the air, with Ewers finishing 27-of-42 for 356 yards and three TDs with one pick. Tennessee, meanwhile, ran for 197 yards as a team, with Sampson accounting for 131 yards on 18 carries with two scores. Iamaleava was efficient throwing the football, completing 26-of-32 passes for 258 yards and a TD. Bru McCoy had a big day through the air with seven catches for 101 yards.
National Championship
Penn State 23 - Tennessee 8
In an unlikely title game matchup, Penn State dominated en route to the program’s third national championship. It was a much lower scoring affair than most of the CFP games before it, as perhaps the grind of the 12-team field took its toll on two teams that did not receive a Round 1 bye.
Neither team would get on the scoreboard until the second quarter, where Kaytron Allen’s 1-yard TD run broke the scoreless tie. Penn State would add a field goal to take a 10-0 lead into halftime, and quickly added to that lead with a 4-yard TD by Liam Clifford to begin the third quarter. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter that Tennessee would score its lone touchdown, an 11-yard score from Iamaleava to Holden Staes plus a successful two-point conversion to make it 17-8. Penn State added a short Tyler Warren TD midway through the quarter but missed the extra point, and the 23-8 score would hold until the end.
Penn State significantly out-gained Tennessee, 408-270. The Nittany Lions’ rushing attack really showed out, as they ran for 231 yards on 5.4 yards per carry as a team. Singleton ran for 89 yards on 18 carries, and Allen totaled 126 yards on 15 carries with the lone TD. Allar had a quiet passing game, throwing for 167 yards and two TDs, as his running backs really paved the way for the victory. Iamaleava threw for 193 yards with a TD and a pick, and Sampson was held to just 40 yards on 17 carries. PSU held the ball for virtually the entire game, finishing with 38:57 of possession time.
Champions: Penn State
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