Annoyed with the constant over-hyping of a few select teams every season I went and looked up AP Polls for this decade and did a little math and heres what I got.
eventual NC in bold red.
2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
USC OKL MIA FLOR NEB FSU
OKL OSU OKL MIA FSU TENN
UGA MIA FSU OKL ALA PSU LSU MICH TEX NEB WISC ARIZ
FSU TEX TENN TEX MIA FLOR
MIA AUB FLOR FSU UM NEB TEX KSU COL ORE TEX TAM UM USC UGA TENN KSU UM
OSU VT WASH VT FLOR OSU
WVU PITT NEB GT UGA WISC
Now obviously this shows the AP isn't a very good indicator but I'm sure we already knew that. Lets see how bad.
2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
1. USC +8 1. Ohio State NA 1. Miami (Fla.) + 1 1. Oklahoma NA 1. FloridaSt.
2. LSU NA 2.Miami (Fla.) -1 2. Oregon +5 2. Miami (Fla.) +3 2. Va Tech NA
3. Oklahoma -2 3. Georgia +5 3. Florida -2 3. Washington NA 3. Nebraska +3
4. Ohio State -2 4. Southern Cal NA 4. Tennessee +4 4. Oregon State NA 4. Wisconsin +6
5. Miami (Fla.) -2 5. Oklahoma -3 5. Texas 5. Florida St. -3 5. Michigan +3
6. Michigan -2 6. Texas -2 6. Oklahoma -3 6. Virginia Tech NA 6. KSU NA
7. Georgia NA 7. Kansas State NA 7. LSU NA 7. Oregon NA 7. MSU NA
8. Iowa NA 8. Iowa NA 8. Nebraska -4 8. Nebraska -7 8. Alabama NA
9. WSU NA 9. Michigan NA 9. Colorado NA 9. Kansas State -1 9. Tennessee -7
10. Miami Oh NA 10. WSU NA 10. WSU NA 10. Florida -1 10. Marshall NA
SO.... In the polls dealing with this decade, they have gotten TWO teams right. 4 teams within 1 spot, and 27 either wrong by 7 or more, or not in the top ten at all.
In their defense however, they did have a pretty good year in 2001 and seem fairly decent at projecting a top 5 considering. In the 5 years mentioned 11 of the 30 teams projected in the top 5 ended there as well. Although its safe to say they arent good at that seven spot, not a single team that has ended there began the season as a top ten team. also intresting, wisconsin is the only team to start at 10 and finish in the top ten, same thing for UF at the 9 spot, oregon 7, and FSU at 6.
Meaningless stats? Of course, but so are these polls and that was the whole point.
eventual NC in bold red.
2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
USC OKL MIA FLOR NEB FSU
OKL OSU OKL MIA FSU TENN
UGA MIA FSU OKL ALA PSU LSU MICH TEX NEB WISC ARIZ
FSU TEX TENN TEX MIA FLOR
MIA AUB FLOR FSU UM NEB TEX KSU COL ORE TEX TAM UM USC UGA TENN KSU UM
OSU VT WASH VT FLOR OSU
WVU PITT NEB GT UGA WISC
Now obviously this shows the AP isn't a very good indicator but I'm sure we already knew that. Lets see how bad.
2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
1. USC +8 1. Ohio State NA 1. Miami (Fla.) + 1 1. Oklahoma NA 1. FloridaSt.
2. LSU NA 2.Miami (Fla.) -1 2. Oregon +5 2. Miami (Fla.) +3 2. Va Tech NA
3. Oklahoma -2 3. Georgia +5 3. Florida -2 3. Washington NA 3. Nebraska +3
4. Ohio State -2 4. Southern Cal NA 4. Tennessee +4 4. Oregon State NA 4. Wisconsin +6
5. Miami (Fla.) -2 5. Oklahoma -3 5. Texas 5. Florida St. -3 5. Michigan +3
6. Michigan -2 6. Texas -2 6. Oklahoma -3 6. Virginia Tech NA 6. KSU NA
7. Georgia NA 7. Kansas State NA 7. LSU NA 7. Oregon NA 7. MSU NA
8. Iowa NA 8. Iowa NA 8. Nebraska -4 8. Nebraska -7 8. Alabama NA
9. WSU NA 9. Michigan NA 9. Colorado NA 9. Kansas State -1 9. Tennessee -7
10. Miami Oh NA 10. WSU NA 10. WSU NA 10. Florida -1 10. Marshall NA
SO.... In the polls dealing with this decade, they have gotten TWO teams right. 4 teams within 1 spot, and 27 either wrong by 7 or more, or not in the top ten at all.
In their defense however, they did have a pretty good year in 2001 and seem fairly decent at projecting a top 5 considering. In the 5 years mentioned 11 of the 30 teams projected in the top 5 ended there as well. Although its safe to say they arent good at that seven spot, not a single team that has ended there began the season as a top ten team. also intresting, wisconsin is the only team to start at 10 and finish in the top ten, same thing for UF at the 9 spot, oregon 7, and FSU at 6.
Meaningless stats? Of course, but so are these polls and that was the whole point.
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