It's Mandel's mailbag.
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Take out your notebooks, it's time for BCS 101
Based on the e-mails I've received since my first bowl projections were posted Monday, it's clear there's a lot of confusion out there as to how the BCS selection process works, and I can certainly understand why. Though there is a method to the madness, it's not exactly scientific, and the order changes every year. So, I thought I'd use this week's Mailbag to give a little "BCS 101" tutorial, then answer some of your questions about this week's projections.
First of all, for those who didn't see it, my projected BCS lineup (based solely on games played to date, not predicted future results), was:
Rose (national title): USC (Pac-10 champ) vs. Texas (Big 12 champ)
Orange: Miami (ACC champ) vs. Notre Dame (BCS at-large)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
Fiesta: Penn State (Big Ten champ) vs. Oregon (BCS at-large)
So, how does that scenario come to be? Take out your notebooks, class:
1. After the No. 1 and 2 teams are placed in the Rose Bowl, the other conference champs are automatically placed in their "anchor" bowls. That means the SEC champ (Alabama) automatically goes to the Sugar and either the ACC or Big East champ goes to the Orange (take a wild guess which one they'll choose). Normally the Big 12 champ would be placed in the Fiesta Bowl, but as it stands now, No. 2 Texas qualifies for the national title game. And because the Rose Bowl hosts the national title this year, the Big Ten and Pac-10 champs have no anchor bowl, though No. 1 USC would go there anyway.
2. After those four teams have been placed, the "at-large" selection order this year is: 1) Orange, 2) Fiesta, 3) Sugar. However, because the Fiesta loses its anchor team, Texas, to the national-title game, it gets first choice of available teams to replace the 'Horns, so the order now becomes 1) Fiesta, 2) Orange, 3) Fiesta, 4) Sugar.
3. Using that selection order, I have the Fiesta choosing Big Ten champ Penn State, followed by the Orange snatching up at-large Notre Dame (which still needs to win out to reach the requisite nine victories, but already meets the other at-large requirement of being in the BCS top 12), followed by the Fiesta choosing one-loss Oregon as an at-large to face the Nittany Lions, leaving the Sugar to take the last remaining conference champ, West Virginia.
Questions?
Can you explain your pick of Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl? Correct me if I am wrong, but the Fiesta Bowl would receive the first pick in selecting an at-large team if Texas plays in the Rose Bowl? Wouldn't Notre Dame be the first team selected?
--Tim Dittmer, Chicago
Most people -- particularly my fellow college football writers -- assume Notre Dame to the Fiesta is a given, but I'm not so sure. Penn State has a longstanding history with the Fiesta (six appearances, most notably its 1986 national championship over Miami), its fans are foaming at the mouth for a major-bowl appearance (last trip to one of the big four: the Fiesta Bowl nine years ago) and it's no stretch to say this could be the game's last chance to host
Joe Paterno. Notre Dame would bring higher TV ratings, but the Irish were just in Arizona last year for the Insight Bowl and got blown out by Oregon State in their last Fiesta trip five years ago.
I'm basing this, however, on the current landscape, which we all know could change considerably by the end of the season. If, for instance, Alabama finishes with one loss and doesn't win the SEC, I've got to think the Fiesta would jump at the chance to stage a Notre Dame-Alabama game (and the Orange wouldn't exactly be disappointed with Penn State-Miami).
How can you keep a straight face when suggesting that Oregon might belong in the Fiesta Bowl? They have no noteworthy victories to speak of. Surely even a two-loss team from the Big Ten or SEC would be more deserving than Oregon, whose only victory over a ranked team is a three-point win over No. 20 Fresno State.
--Joe Roark, Paducah, Ky.
Joe brings up a common misperception. After the national title game, the question of who's "most deserving" plays little role in bowl selections. It's all about geography, fan interest, who travels well, etc. Admittedly, there are any number of candidates -- LSU, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas Tech -- for that second Fiesta spot. I chose the one-loss Ducks because they're a West Coast team that travels extremely well. There're also some factors at play that hurt the other contenders. LSU played at Sun Devil Stadium earlier this season. The Buckeyes have been in the Fiesta Bowl twice in the past three years. Texas Tech lost a lot of respect when it got blown out by Texas. Penn State-Virginia Tech would be too regional. And Georgia's clear across the country.
Now, if this was the Orange Bowl's selection we were talking about, Oregon wouldn't even be in the discussion, and Georgia and Ohio State would be right at the top of the list.
Bowl projections are what they are, but I'm confused about how you can have Miami as the ACC champ and Virginia Tech as the ACC No. 2. Wouldn't the No. 2 ACC team have to be Florida State? The 'Noles will be playing for the ACC title in Jacksonville, after all.
--Joe, Atlanta
We'll have to see how the Gator Bowl starts handling the ACC title-game loser, but the reason I didn't put Florida State there is for exactly the reason you pointed out: They'd be playing in Jacksonville twice in the span of a month. Also, if the 'Noles lose the title game, that would mean they have at least three losses, whereas Virginia Tech might only have one.
One last BCS question, though not related to these particular projections but my recent note about the Big East's USF controlling its own destiny for an automatic berth.
Why the sarcasm towards USF if they do happen to make it to a BCS game? You sound almost like a corporate executive who thinks he might lose some money.
--Bill Farmer, Clarksville, Tenn.
I won't lose a dime, but the Sugar Bowl -- already reeling from Hurricane Katrina -- could lose a bundle. Personally, I think USF reaching a BCS bowl would be a great story (kind of like Kent State reaching the Elite Eight a few years ago), but from a business standpoint, it would be a complete disaster. The fact is, the average college football fan doesn't even realize USF exists. The game's TV ratings would be horrendous, and while jubilant Bulls fans (they do exist) would buy up tickets, I'm guessing a lot of the SEC team's fans who would have otherwise made the trip will suddenly lose interest.
Put it this way. From a TV standpoint, if Alabama, LSU or Georgia played USF in the regular season, it would probably be one of those pay-per-view games you can only get on GamePlan.
