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Senators Trade Zibanejad to the Rangers for Brassard
TDS Staff via our good friends at Buckeye Battle Cry
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
CALGARY, CANADA – FEBRUARY 27: Mika Zibanejad #65 of the Ottawa Senators celebrates his hat trick goal in the third period with Mike Hoffman #68 during their NHL game against the Calgary Flames at the Scotiabank Saddledome on February 27, 2016 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
It seemed like it was just a few weeks ago that Senators general manager Pierre Dorion was singing Mika Zibanejad’s praises.
Pierre Dorion on seeing Mika Zibanejad recently: “He looks in the best shape I’ve ever seen him. He’s ready to take the next step.”
— Rodney Berg (@RodneyBerg) June 24, 2016
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Oh.
Apparently, that next step will have to come in New York because yesterday the Senators announced that they’ve traded Zibanejad and a 2018 second round pick to the New York Rangers for Derick Brassard and a 2018 seventh rounder.
For all the talk this offseason about how much Dorion liked the composition of his top-six forwards, he shook it up by making a deal that should, in theory, make the Senators better in the interim (and for those of you who aren’t enamoured with the trade and are looking for some silver lining, well, at least it wasn’t a move that brought in Dan Girardi).
Brassard is a known commodity who played in junior under Guy Boucher and he is coming off a season in which he tallied 27 goals and 58 points. The season before, he set a career high by notching 60 points. Put in the relative context of Zibanejad’s production, and the young Swede has failed to reach or surpass either of those point thresholds.
Then again, it’s not really that uncommon for a top-six centre who has been in the league for nine seasons to have better numbers at some point in his career than a centre who only turned 23 years of age this past April.
In fairness to Zibanejad however, it’s not like he’s far off Brassard’s career-best point totals either. Despite the fact that he’s almost six years younger than Brassard, who will turn 29 years old this September, Mika already has two 20+ goal seasons under his belt to Brassard’s one and although Brassard’s point production has taken a step forward these past two seasons, he does only have three 45+ point seasons in his career to Zibanejad’s two.
Here’s a closer look at their rate stats over the years via HockeyAnalysis.com:
Derick Brassard Mika Zibanejad
Age
2012-13
2014-15
Looking at the production totals alone, Brassard’s been the better player, but Zibanejad has been the more productive of the two at even strength.
On the power play, it’s a different story.
Over the past two seasons, Brassard has averaged 5.39 points per 60 minutes of power play ice time. Of the forwards who have played 100 minutes or more on the power play during this time, he has the 32nd highest point rate. (As an aside, Brassard was 21st in points per 60 of power play time last season with 5.82 points per 60.)
Conversely, Zibanejad has only averaged 3.66 point per 60 – which puts him tied for the 136th highest rate. Considering the Senators’ shortcomings on the power play, having Brassard around should provide a boost. Then again, as Andre Tourigny pointed out on Ottawa radio after his dismissal, the Senators had one of the best power plays in the league until Kyle Turris was felled by an early-December ankle injury last season.
Then again, Mika’s still young and considering the power play still feels like something where veteran responsibility and cachet still play a big role, maybe Zibanejad will become a more central fixture on the New York power play and because of it, maybe his numbers will spike. If that happens and Zibanejad continues to trend upwards, the Rangers could easily wind up getting the better player and the significantly higher draft pick.
It’s not like Zibanejad is a player without warts in his game.
Mika and his most frequent linemates, Mike Hoffman and Bobby Ryan, benefitted from having the highest on-ice shooting percentages of the forwards who played in more than 30 games. (Mind you, Brassard spent most of his minutes last season alongside Mats Zuccarello and Rick Nash, so there’s a proportionate concern that his production could diminish with lesser linemates in Ottawa.) Despite this good fortune, which could easily help explain his improved offensive totals, it never really felt like that line really clicked or that Zibanejad ever brought out the best of Ottawa’s highest paid player. Then again, when you’re paid to be a difference maker and Ottawa’s best player, the hope is that you’re not a passenger who’s overly reliant on those around him to make him better.
Even though Zibanejad’s been a relatively positive possession player throughout his career, he’s struggled to help drive the puck from the defensive end to the offensive end. Granted, it’s not like he was bookended with Marian Hossa and Jere Lehtinen. As Corsica Hockey’s line combination data shows, of the line combinations that played more than 100 5v5 minutes together last season, only the trio of Hoffman, Turris and Ryan permitted gave up more shots per 60 than the combination of Hoffman, Zibanejad and Ryan.
There was never any question that Mika has the tools and skill set to be a very productive player, but too often, it seemed like his hockey IQ abandoned him as he tried to force the play. In his formative years, he was aided by the fact that he played insulated minutes away from the opposition’s better players, but in recent seasons, it felt like he struggled to establish himself as a legitimate two-way player. Perhaps this on-ice decision making is what helped yield some some middling ‘With or Without You’ numbers.
Like Zibanejad, Brassard’s had relatively positive possession numbers throughout his career and last season, his ‘With or Without You’ numbers also left something to be desired. There is hope that adding a left-handed shot will add a wrinkle to the Senators’ second line, but what really appeals to the Senators in this deal is the price tag belonging to Brassard.
Even though the Senators are taking on an additional $2.375-million on the cap and $1.75-million in real dollars during the first year of this trade because of the difference in salaries being paid to Brassard ($5.0-million) and Zibanejad ($3.25-million), thanks to the frontloaded nature of Brassard’s deal, his base salary over the final two years of his contract is what’s really enticing to Ottawa.
Brassard’s base salary is actually relatively low in the last two years of his contract when he’ll earn $3.5-million per season. Put in contrast with the likelihood that Zibanejad will pull in more than the $3.25-million he’s earning in 2016-17, and you have a situation wherein the Senators have acquired an inexpensive, albeit older, version of what Zibanejad is essentially bringing to the table now. In essence, they traded two young assets with upside for a 29-year old centre who has none so that the team could get cost certainty over the final two years of Brassard’s deal.
It’s the cost of doing business when the organization has clearly established its identity as one that cares much more about interim success and the accompanying playoff revenue, yesterday’s move is skewed towards short-term results.
In fact, it hits all of the boxes on the organization’s checklist:
But more than anything, this deal came down to money.
Sens and NYR were talking for a few weeks. Trade didn’t happen before because of a $2M bonus Derick Brassard had to receive on July 15.
— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) July 18, 2016
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
The fact that the deal was consummated after July 15th, the date that Brassard was owed a $2-million bonus, is the cherry on top. It just fuels the notion that the cash-strapped Senators made the move to not only fit Mike Hoffman and Cody Ceci into their budget long-term, but that they moved the second round pick as an incentive for the Rangers to pick up the bonus owed to Brassard.
This will assuredly piss off fans who’ve grown tired of hearing how shifting money played such a large factor in a transaction, but that’s the cold hearted reality of Ottawa’s situation in the Eugene Melnyk era. There was some hope that the modus operandi would change once Bryan Murray stepped aside and Dorion inherited the reins, but it’s become increasingly difficult to shake the nagging feeling that, despite the restructuring of the hockey operations department, much has changed or that Melnyk isn’t influencing management’s decisions by pushing his agenda.
For the sake of being clear, I have absolutely no qualms with the organization flipping young assets. In this particular instance, Zibanejad was an incredibly frustrating player to watch at times. It probably didn’t help that some perceived that his DJ’ing hobby was a distraction or that he never really seemed to arrive in training in the best of shape – thanks to his concussion history and that undisclosed ailment he dealt with over the 2014 offseason which prevented him from really working out.
With all of these hiccups, it never really felt like Zibanejad safely projected to develop into something more than what Ottawa already has. Thanks to the presence of players like Turris, Pageau, now Brassard and prospects like Logan Brown and Colin White, Zibanejad became superfluous and expendable.
That said, if you’re a small market club that has limited financial resources available to it, you best make use of how you retain or flip these young assets. Looking back at Ottawa’s trade history, it has traded away a considerable opportunity costs to bring in marginal upgrades who have failed to help make this franchise significantly better. Each season is a constant struggle to reach the playoffs.
The end result, even with Brassard in tow, is a bubble playoff team that has stretched its budget so thin that it has to send futures out to get out from under a prospective Zibanejad extension that it probably couldn’t afford one year from now. And with expensive veteran players playing complementary roles and protected by no-movement clauses, it’s difficult not to look forward and wonder whether this is going to be the norm moving forward as more of this team’s best young players have their ELCs or bridge contracts expire.
This isn’t the direction that the organization sold fans on in 2011.
Within a five year span, the Senators went from being one of the youngest teams in the league to sporting the sixth-oldest roster in the NHL without getting much further ahead.
Hopefully Brassard improves the power play and gives the Senators a centre who finally clicks with Ryan. Considering the winger has gone through centres faster than Ben Affleck goes through bottles of Sam Adams, the Senators desperately need this deal to work out, even with the cost certainty that comes with Brassard. Because provided Zibanejad’s even strength rates stay the same and he gets a similar workload to Brassard on the power play, it’s not out entirely out of the realm of possibility that Mika has opportunity to make this trade look bad as early as next season.
Continue reading...
TDS Staff via our good friends at Buckeye Battle Cry
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
CALGARY, CANADA – FEBRUARY 27: Mika Zibanejad #65 of the Ottawa Senators celebrates his hat trick goal in the third period with Mike Hoffman #68 during their NHL game against the Calgary Flames at the Scotiabank Saddledome on February 27, 2016 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
It seemed like it was just a few weeks ago that Senators general manager Pierre Dorion was singing Mika Zibanejad’s praises.
Pierre Dorion on seeing Mika Zibanejad recently: “He looks in the best shape I’ve ever seen him. He’s ready to take the next step.”
— Rodney Berg (@RodneyBerg) June 24, 2016
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Oh.
Apparently, that next step will have to come in New York because yesterday the Senators announced that they’ve traded Zibanejad and a 2018 second round pick to the New York Rangers for Derick Brassard and a 2018 seventh rounder.
For all the talk this offseason about how much Dorion liked the composition of his top-six forwards, he shook it up by making a deal that should, in theory, make the Senators better in the interim (and for those of you who aren’t enamoured with the trade and are looking for some silver lining, well, at least it wasn’t a move that brought in Dan Girardi).
Brassard is a known commodity who played in junior under Guy Boucher and he is coming off a season in which he tallied 27 goals and 58 points. The season before, he set a career high by notching 60 points. Put in the relative context of Zibanejad’s production, and the young Swede has failed to reach or surpass either of those point thresholds.
Then again, it’s not really that uncommon for a top-six centre who has been in the league for nine seasons to have better numbers at some point in his career than a centre who only turned 23 years of age this past April.
In fairness to Zibanejad however, it’s not like he’s far off Brassard’s career-best point totals either. Despite the fact that he’s almost six years younger than Brassard, who will turn 29 years old this September, Mika already has two 20+ goal seasons under his belt to Brassard’s one and although Brassard’s point production has taken a step forward these past two seasons, he does only have three 45+ point seasons in his career to Zibanejad’s two.
Here’s a closer look at their rate stats over the years via HockeyAnalysis.com:
Derick Brassard Mika Zibanejad
Age
G/60
Pts/60
Age
G/60
Pts/602012-13
25
0.79
1.57
2012-13
19
0.39
1.97
2013-14
2013-14
26
0.54
1.43
2013-14
20
0.84
1.692014-15
27
0.55
2.16
2014-15
21
0.84
1.62
2015-16
2015-16
28
0.85
1.64
2015-16
22
0.88
1.88Looking at the production totals alone, Brassard’s been the better player, but Zibanejad has been the more productive of the two at even strength.
On the power play, it’s a different story.
Over the past two seasons, Brassard has averaged 5.39 points per 60 minutes of power play ice time. Of the forwards who have played 100 minutes or more on the power play during this time, he has the 32nd highest point rate. (As an aside, Brassard was 21st in points per 60 of power play time last season with 5.82 points per 60.)
Conversely, Zibanejad has only averaged 3.66 point per 60 – which puts him tied for the 136th highest rate. Considering the Senators’ shortcomings on the power play, having Brassard around should provide a boost. Then again, as Andre Tourigny pointed out on Ottawa radio after his dismissal, the Senators had one of the best power plays in the league until Kyle Turris was felled by an early-December ankle injury last season.
Then again, Mika’s still young and considering the power play still feels like something where veteran responsibility and cachet still play a big role, maybe Zibanejad will become a more central fixture on the New York power play and because of it, maybe his numbers will spike. If that happens and Zibanejad continues to trend upwards, the Rangers could easily wind up getting the better player and the significantly higher draft pick.
It’s not like Zibanejad is a player without warts in his game.
Mika and his most frequent linemates, Mike Hoffman and Bobby Ryan, benefitted from having the highest on-ice shooting percentages of the forwards who played in more than 30 games. (Mind you, Brassard spent most of his minutes last season alongside Mats Zuccarello and Rick Nash, so there’s a proportionate concern that his production could diminish with lesser linemates in Ottawa.) Despite this good fortune, which could easily help explain his improved offensive totals, it never really felt like that line really clicked or that Zibanejad ever brought out the best of Ottawa’s highest paid player. Then again, when you’re paid to be a difference maker and Ottawa’s best player, the hope is that you’re not a passenger who’s overly reliant on those around him to make him better.
Even though Zibanejad’s been a relatively positive possession player throughout his career, he’s struggled to help drive the puck from the defensive end to the offensive end. Granted, it’s not like he was bookended with Marian Hossa and Jere Lehtinen. As Corsica Hockey’s line combination data shows, of the line combinations that played more than 100 5v5 minutes together last season, only the trio of Hoffman, Turris and Ryan permitted gave up more shots per 60 than the combination of Hoffman, Zibanejad and Ryan.
There was never any question that Mika has the tools and skill set to be a very productive player, but too often, it seemed like his hockey IQ abandoned him as he tried to force the play. In his formative years, he was aided by the fact that he played insulated minutes away from the opposition’s better players, but in recent seasons, it felt like he struggled to establish himself as a legitimate two-way player. Perhaps this on-ice decision making is what helped yield some some middling ‘With or Without You’ numbers.
Like Zibanejad, Brassard’s had relatively positive possession numbers throughout his career and last season, his ‘With or Without You’ numbers also left something to be desired. There is hope that adding a left-handed shot will add a wrinkle to the Senators’ second line, but what really appeals to the Senators in this deal is the price tag belonging to Brassard.
Even though the Senators are taking on an additional $2.375-million on the cap and $1.75-million in real dollars during the first year of this trade because of the difference in salaries being paid to Brassard ($5.0-million) and Zibanejad ($3.25-million), thanks to the frontloaded nature of Brassard’s deal, his base salary over the final two years of his contract is what’s really enticing to Ottawa.
Brassard’s base salary is actually relatively low in the last two years of his contract when he’ll earn $3.5-million per season. Put in contrast with the likelihood that Zibanejad will pull in more than the $3.25-million he’s earning in 2016-17, and you have a situation wherein the Senators have acquired an inexpensive, albeit older, version of what Zibanejad is essentially bringing to the table now. In essence, they traded two young assets with upside for a 29-year old centre who has none so that the team could get cost certainty over the final two years of Brassard’s deal.
It’s the cost of doing business when the organization has clearly established its identity as one that cares much more about interim success and the accompanying playoff revenue, yesterday’s move is skewed towards short-term results.
In fact, it hits all of the boxes on the organization’s checklist:
- Is the team saving money over the long haul?
- Is the team better now than one or two seasons from now?
- Is the player a veteran who has character?
- Does this player have local ties?
But more than anything, this deal came down to money.
Sens and NYR were talking for a few weeks. Trade didn’t happen before because of a $2M bonus Derick Brassard had to receive on July 15.
— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) July 18, 2016
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
The fact that the deal was consummated after July 15th, the date that Brassard was owed a $2-million bonus, is the cherry on top. It just fuels the notion that the cash-strapped Senators made the move to not only fit Mike Hoffman and Cody Ceci into their budget long-term, but that they moved the second round pick as an incentive for the Rangers to pick up the bonus owed to Brassard.
This will assuredly piss off fans who’ve grown tired of hearing how shifting money played such a large factor in a transaction, but that’s the cold hearted reality of Ottawa’s situation in the Eugene Melnyk era. There was some hope that the modus operandi would change once Bryan Murray stepped aside and Dorion inherited the reins, but it’s become increasingly difficult to shake the nagging feeling that, despite the restructuring of the hockey operations department, much has changed or that Melnyk isn’t influencing management’s decisions by pushing his agenda.
For the sake of being clear, I have absolutely no qualms with the organization flipping young assets. In this particular instance, Zibanejad was an incredibly frustrating player to watch at times. It probably didn’t help that some perceived that his DJ’ing hobby was a distraction or that he never really seemed to arrive in training in the best of shape – thanks to his concussion history and that undisclosed ailment he dealt with over the 2014 offseason which prevented him from really working out.
With all of these hiccups, it never really felt like Zibanejad safely projected to develop into something more than what Ottawa already has. Thanks to the presence of players like Turris, Pageau, now Brassard and prospects like Logan Brown and Colin White, Zibanejad became superfluous and expendable.
That said, if you’re a small market club that has limited financial resources available to it, you best make use of how you retain or flip these young assets. Looking back at Ottawa’s trade history, it has traded away a considerable opportunity costs to bring in marginal upgrades who have failed to help make this franchise significantly better. Each season is a constant struggle to reach the playoffs.
The end result, even with Brassard in tow, is a bubble playoff team that has stretched its budget so thin that it has to send futures out to get out from under a prospective Zibanejad extension that it probably couldn’t afford one year from now. And with expensive veteran players playing complementary roles and protected by no-movement clauses, it’s difficult not to look forward and wonder whether this is going to be the norm moving forward as more of this team’s best young players have their ELCs or bridge contracts expire.
This isn’t the direction that the organization sold fans on in 2011.
Within a five year span, the Senators went from being one of the youngest teams in the league to sporting the sixth-oldest roster in the NHL without getting much further ahead.
Hopefully Brassard improves the power play and gives the Senators a centre who finally clicks with Ryan. Considering the winger has gone through centres faster than Ben Affleck goes through bottles of Sam Adams, the Senators desperately need this deal to work out, even with the cost certainty that comes with Brassard. Because provided Zibanejad’s even strength rates stay the same and he gets a similar workload to Brassard on the power play, it’s not out entirely out of the realm of possibility that Mika has opportunity to make this trade look bad as early as next season.
Continue reading...