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RB Production year-to-year

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DaddyBigBucks

DaddyBigBucks

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3yardsandacloud said:
Nice stuff DBB. You know what I really like to see someone do? (Obviously this is a hint for YOU to do such I report :lol: ) I'd love to see the change in average across a span of years for certain positions.

Say for instance Runningback. On average how does a running back change from freshman to sophomore, SO to JR, JR to SR. What I think would be interesting is numbers that show what could be generally expected at certain positions. That we we could say (roughly) that this season Antonio Pittman should be expected to gain X total yards, X yards per carry, X fumbles, etc. Obviously, the report would need to cover a large group of RBs (or whatever position) to give us roughly accurate percentages. Food for thought.
Click to expand...

Your instincts are amazing. When you asked for this, I wasn't really sure why, but I did it anyway (I actually like to do this stuff :blush: ). It turns out that there was some interesting data buried in all of those numbers. Greenies for you.

Assumptions and Constraints
  • I only went back to 1999 because the NCAA web-site doesn't have data going back farther that is available in a readily accessible format. It's still a lot of data.
  • I only used the top 100 rushers for each year back to 2000, and only the top 50 for 1999; because that is the data the NCAA web-site had. It's still a lot of data.
  • No filtering was done based on how many OL the team returned from the previous year. That's just too much work. I mean this is 215 different performances here. I don't know if you like spending your evening working through the web-sites of every Athletic Department on Earth but...:tic:
Results

  • The overall average improvement for those who had been ranked the previous year was 6.998 yards per game.
  • The overall standard deviation was 27.579. For those of you who went to Notre Dame this means that there was a wide degree of variability in the results. For those of you who went to Michigan this means that some guys did a lot better and some guys did a lot worse.
  • Sophomores who had been ranked the previous year averaged 5.59 more yards per game than they did as Freshmen.
  • Juniors who had been ranked the previous year averaged 11.30 more yards per game than they did as Sophomores.
  • Seniors who had been ranked the previous year averaged 4.75 more yards per game than they did as Juniors.
This seems to bode well for Antonio Pittman, as the most improvement seems to occur between the Sophomore and Junior seasons. But before we paint the end-zones, let's examine why improvement levels off in the last year of eligibility.

As you might expect, defenses keyed on guys who had been ranked the previous year. This is borne out by the fact that the average difference in yards per carry was -0.10 yards. That's right, guys who were ranked the previous year got 6.998 more yards per game but -0.10 fewer yards per carry. For those of you who went to Michigan, that means their coaches fed them the ball more and defenses focused on stopping them.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Seniors get more attention from opposing coaches/defenses than do the underclassmen. But wouldn't a highly productive Sophomore also become a point of focus for teams he faced as a Junior?

To answer this question, I filtered the data to better match Antonio Pittman's situation. Averages were calculated including only those who:
  • weren't QBs
  • had > 100 yards per game
  • had > 5 yards per carry
  • had not missed a season (these data points skewed the results, as these were typically athletes returning from injury)
Juniors who fit this description as Sophomores averaged only a 6.61 yard per game improvement, and averaged 0.51 FEWER yards per carry.

By comparison, Seniors who fit this description as Juniors averaged 12.65 FEWER yards per game and 0.70 FEWER yards per carry.


If you filter further for only those who had gained > 110 yards per game (like AP), you find that the Juniors averaged 0.33 yards FEWER per game and 0.54 FEWER per carry.

This suggests that Antonio Pittman will average 110.6 yards game and a little under 5 yards per carry. When you factor in AP's improvement over the course of the year last year, I stongly suspect that these numbers are lower than his actual production will be.

The real moral of the story is that there really isn't that much difference ON AVERAGE; and there is the chance that he could do much better and a chance that he could do much worse.

OK, show of hands: How many think that he'll do worse?
 
WOW. Great stuff DBB. Must say I'm a bit surprised by the results. I guess I assumed there would be a gradual (almost linear) increase in RB production as experience increased. From what I'm seeing (as a general rule) running backs remain a flat known quantity for production. Seemingly, only the coach's confidence (thus allowing more rushing attempts) in a RB affects their ability to gain more total yards in succeeding years. Of course RBs do get better (more skilled, more strength, etc.), but as that happens, defenses adjust their focus to negate that improvement.

Wonder how this type of anaylsis might look for QBs, receivers or even punters and kickers ... hint. Seriously, good work. If you ever have the time the other stuff might prove interesting as well.
 
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He'll do better (ypc-wise), because as much as defenses might want to key on a ranked RB from the previous season, they can't ignore the 4th rated passer from the previous season. TS's arm will force defenses to play the run honestly. Last year we didn't have a proper backup to come in and spell AP for a while, and you could see he would tire towards the end of some games. This year we've got the whole package on offense, and I expect to see AP's ypc numbers go up though his yds/game numbers may not increase due to fewer carries.
 
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Kueller said:
He'll do better (ypc-wise), because as much as defenses might want to key on a ranked RB from the previous season, they can't ignore the 4th rated passer from the previous season...
Click to expand...

I agree with this...

As I was staring at my spread-sheet, trying to pry meaningful data out of it, it seemed to me that guys near the top in improvement played for teams with a legitimate passing game. Actually looking up passing stats for the QBs on every team in question was more work than I'm up for; unless someone starts paying me for this.
 
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Nice post by DaddyBigBucks. I'm torn as to Pittman's final totals in 2006. Don't get me wrong, I think he is a talented and underrated back. It could go either way:

Factors in his favor:

1. Defenses accounting for Troy Smith - my guess is that most DC's that we are facing will gameplan for Troy and roll the dice elsewhere. It is to AP's advantage not to be the focal point.
2. More ace back formation looks - spreads the D.
3. Big play receivers- we may see more nickel and dime looks, which would bode well for the running game.
4. Increased strength, speed, durability from AP as he continues to mature.

Factors that remain to be seen:

1. Increased quality depth at this position - more reps for others?
2. How the offensive line jells - replacing Mangold and Sims won't be a snap. These guys were mainstays for quite a while. Yes, there is talent upcoming, but getting five guys to perform as a unit is challenging.
3. How fast the "new" defense performs - will they come up with a greater number of turnovers leading to more offensive series? Will they struggle early as they work to find the right pieces? This will all correlate to overall offensive production.
4. The score of the games - will Tressel keep AP in games where the Bucks are comfortably ahead (here's hoping we are) or will we see the future?

All in all, I am excited to see how Pittman performs this season. If he stays injury free, and, more importantly, the offensive line continues to progress, I think that AP could have a special season. And, unfortunately DBB, I will be unable to fund your continued study. :biggrin:
 
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808 Buck said:
Factors in his favor:

1. Defenses accounting for Troy Smith - my guess is that most DC's that we are facing will gameplan for Troy and roll the dice elsewhere. It is to AP's advantage not to be the focal point.
2. More ace back formation looks - spreads the D.
3. Big play receivers- we may see more nickel and dime looks, which would bode well for the running game.
4. Increased strength, speed, durability from AP as he continues to mature.
Click to expand...

1. I agree. And if Troy Smith starts a little slowly this year, I think Pittman will, too.
2. I would tend to agree with this one, but it seemed to me last year that the offense did a lot better at the beginning of the year when they quit trying to spread the defense and went to the I-formation. Later in the year, they spread it out a bit more. (And, if I remember correctly, Pittman's first touchdown run was with four wide receivers.)
3. I would think that the loss of Holmes would decrease this point. Hopefully, a couple of the other guys can fill his shoes fairly well.
4. I'll believe it when I see it. I was pumped when Lydell Ross gained muscle between his sophomore and junior years. That didn't work out as well as I had hoped. Of course, Lydell Ross is not Antonio Pittman.

808 Buck said:
Factors that remain to be seen:

1. Increased quality depth at this position - more reps for others?
2. How the offensive line jells - replacing Mangold and Sims won't be a snap. These guys were mainstays for quite a while. Yes, there is talent upcoming, but getting five guys to perform as a unit is challenging.
3. How fast the "new" defense performs - will they come up with a greater number of turnovers leading to more offensive series? Will they struggle early as they work to find the right pieces? This will all correlate to overall offensive production.
4. The score of the games - will Tressel keep AP in games where the Bucks are comfortably ahead (here's hoping we are) or will we see the future?
Click to expand...

1. I would think you're right. But maybe the better RBs will help to tire the opposing defenses? Pittman's total yards-per-game may go down, but his yards-per-carry may go up.
2. I think this may be the biggest factor. Offensive line may be the biggest factor in how a running game goes.
3. Another huge factor. Pittman can't run the ball if the defense can't get off the field.
4. Also, if the Bucks are up, there's a better chance that running plays will be called.
 
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