Michael Citro
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Predicting Ohio State’s 2024 rushing statistics
Michael Citro via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
With a pair of stud co-starting running backs and a new offensive coordinator, 2024 will be an interesting year for the Buckeyes’ rushing game.
Trying to predict a college football team’s statistics in April is a fool’s errand, so with that in mind: challenge accepted.
Ohio State has its best one-two punch at tailback since J.K. Dobbins split time with Mike Weber (and, later, Master Teague), and this year’s tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins could be much better than either of those other pairings.
Both have already managed to be featured, 1,000-yard backs. Injuries and snap management prevented Henderson from doing it multiple times, but he set a career mark in 2021 with 1,255 yards on 184 carries across 13 games, scoring 15 touchdowns.
Judkins is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, but he’s been a lot more involved in the offense at Mississippi than Henderson has been in Columbus. On 274 carries, Judkins ran for 1,565 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2022 across 13 games. In 2023, Judkins carried 271 times in 13 tames for 1,158 yards and 15 touchdowns.
In order to make any predictions, I’m going to have to start with some assumptions. The first of those is that the backfield stays healthy enough to get a normal number of snaps. The second is that the running game will get a boost for two main reasons: the ability to go to two different top-notch running threats, and the presence of Chip Kelly, who should help the running back room with a combination of inside and outside zone runs
The Buckeyes will also benefit from additional concepts that can be used a bit more sparingly, and, more than likely, a quarterback who can be included in the base run game. That might not happen if Julian Sayin wins the job, but another assumption I’m going to make is that either Will Howard or Devin Brown will claim the job. I think it will be Howard.
Expanded playoffs may also play a role, but it’s best not to get too far into the weeds. Knowing how much Ryan Day likes to throw the football, take shots, and have his quarterback be the focal point of the offense, I’ll stick with a number of carries that is comparable over the course of the season.
The Buckeyes’ leading ball carrier under Ryan Day has averaged 164 attempts. Admittedly, this is not strictly true, because I am doing two unorthodox things. First, I’m throwing out the outlier of 301 carries by Dobbins in 2019, because that was the only season under Day where there was a clear workhorse back dominating the carries. Secondly, I had to extrapolate a season mark of 188 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season (the high mark for carries was 116, but in only eight games).
This seems about right, because I expect Henderson and Judkins to get a similar number of carries, with perhaps Judkins finishing with slightly more due to the likelihood that he’ll be the short-yardage and goal-line option, while also getting more of the fourth quarter carries to see out games and, let’s be honest, to better protect Henderson.
I think the first-half snaps for the running backs will be somewhat evenly distributed, including some sets with both Henderson and Judkins on the field together. Having both in the formation would help disguise whether the run is more likely to be inside or outside, although I expect Kelly to keep defenses honest by giving Henderson some inside runs and getting Judkins out on the edge at times.
Where things might get interesting is that I don’t see the third and fourth backs getting quite as many carries in 2024 unless there are some injuries. I would not have predicted that had Dallan Hayden decided to stay in Columbus, but here we are.
Based on all of the above, here is how I see the numbers shaking out by the end of the 2024 season:
I also think he’ll score about a dozen rushing touchdowns.
I’ll predict about 145 attempts for Henderson this fall, but I expect him to maximize those and break several long runs. I’ll look for an average of about 6.8yards per carry because of some of those explosion plays which will put him at 986 rushing yards. Of course, if the coaching staff sees Henderson approaching 1,000 yards, they might give him a few extra attempts late in the season.
As far as touchdowns, I’ll give Henderson the same 11 that he had in 2023. He’ll have to get in from further out, because Judkins seems more likely to get the nod in the red zone.
Howard doesn’t have Fields’ wheels, but he’s a smart runner and he has a knack for knowing when to take off and get a key first down. Kelly will use quarterback designed runs and RPOs, with the former keeping the defense honest. Additionally, Howard will scramble at times. I don’t expect him to rack up the 137 carries Fields had in 2019 — which was second most on the team that year — but I expect him to at least double the 32 attempts Kyle McCord had in 2023.
I’m going to predict about 72 carries for Howard. Sacks will affect his yardage, of course, but I still think he finishes third on the team in rushing yards for the season. Because I expect more designed quarterback runs in 2024 and for Howard to be more likely to take off when a pass play breaks down, I’m going to give him more than the 2.3 yards per carry average that C.J. Stroud had in 2022. I will also put Howard’s yards per carry below Fields’ numbers in 2019 and 2020, which were 3.53 and 4.72, respectively.
I will go with a solid 3.1 yards per carry (when figuring in sacks), for a 2024 season total of 223 yards. He’ll probably chip in a few rushing touchdowns as well.
After the top three, I would expect James Peoples, Sam Williams-Dixon, and TC Caffey to get most of the remaining carries, along with whoever is the backup quarterback, followed by Emeka Egbuka, who will get his usual jet sweep opportunities. Peoples seems the likely third choice at this point, but that may still be yet to be decided.
I’ll say this trio of running backs will end up in the fourth, fifth, and sixth spots in the final rushing charts, The leader of those three will approach Howard’s numbers, and finish with around 215 yards, with the next running back around 200 yards, and the third with 178.
That’s how I see the split in playing time, the distribution of the carries, the averages per carry, and the final totals for the 2024 season playing out. Feel free to tell me where you agree/disagree in the comments below.
Speculation is fun!
Continue reading...
Michael Citro via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
With a pair of stud co-starting running backs and a new offensive coordinator, 2024 will be an interesting year for the Buckeyes’ rushing game.
Trying to predict a college football team’s statistics in April is a fool’s errand, so with that in mind: challenge accepted.
Ohio State has its best one-two punch at tailback since J.K. Dobbins split time with Mike Weber (and, later, Master Teague), and this year’s tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins could be much better than either of those other pairings.
Both have already managed to be featured, 1,000-yard backs. Injuries and snap management prevented Henderson from doing it multiple times, but he set a career mark in 2021 with 1,255 yards on 184 carries across 13 games, scoring 15 touchdowns.
Judkins is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, but he’s been a lot more involved in the offense at Mississippi than Henderson has been in Columbus. On 274 carries, Judkins ran for 1,565 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2022 across 13 games. In 2023, Judkins carried 271 times in 13 tames for 1,158 yards and 15 touchdowns.
In order to make any predictions, I’m going to have to start with some assumptions. The first of those is that the backfield stays healthy enough to get a normal number of snaps. The second is that the running game will get a boost for two main reasons: the ability to go to two different top-notch running threats, and the presence of Chip Kelly, who should help the running back room with a combination of inside and outside zone runs
The Buckeyes will also benefit from additional concepts that can be used a bit more sparingly, and, more than likely, a quarterback who can be included in the base run game. That might not happen if Julian Sayin wins the job, but another assumption I’m going to make is that either Will Howard or Devin Brown will claim the job. I think it will be Howard.
Expanded playoffs may also play a role, but it’s best not to get too far into the weeds. Knowing how much Ryan Day likes to throw the football, take shots, and have his quarterback be the focal point of the offense, I’ll stick with a number of carries that is comparable over the course of the season.
The Buckeyes’ leading ball carrier under Ryan Day has averaged 164 attempts. Admittedly, this is not strictly true, because I am doing two unorthodox things. First, I’m throwing out the outlier of 301 carries by Dobbins in 2019, because that was the only season under Day where there was a clear workhorse back dominating the carries. Secondly, I had to extrapolate a season mark of 188 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season (the high mark for carries was 116, but in only eight games).
This seems about right, because I expect Henderson and Judkins to get a similar number of carries, with perhaps Judkins finishing with slightly more due to the likelihood that he’ll be the short-yardage and goal-line option, while also getting more of the fourth quarter carries to see out games and, let’s be honest, to better protect Henderson.
I think the first-half snaps for the running backs will be somewhat evenly distributed, including some sets with both Henderson and Judkins on the field together. Having both in the formation would help disguise whether the run is more likely to be inside or outside, although I expect Kelly to keep defenses honest by giving Henderson some inside runs and getting Judkins out on the edge at times.
Where things might get interesting is that I don’t see the third and fourth backs getting quite as many carries in 2024 unless there are some injuries. I would not have predicted that had Dallan Hayden decided to stay in Columbus, but here we are.
Based on all of the above, here is how I see the numbers shaking out by the end of the 2024 season:
- Judkins — I think the bulk of the carries in 2024 will go to Judkins, but he’ll still be far below his average of 270+ attempts in each of the last two years. I expect Judkins to get around 185 carries, and average around 5.5 yards per attempt. That would place Judkins at the top of the yardage leaderboard with about 1,017 yards.
I also think he’ll score about a dozen rushing touchdowns.
- Henderson — Having Judkins as a stable mate will keep Henderson’s legs fresh in 2024, and having Kelly running a wider variety of inside and outside runs, combined with some misdirection, will help Henderson have a big year. That said, I think he falls a little shy of giving Ohio State two 1,000-yard rushers in 2024.
I’ll predict about 145 attempts for Henderson this fall, but I expect him to maximize those and break several long runs. I’ll look for an average of about 6.8yards per carry because of some of those explosion plays which will put him at 986 rushing yards. Of course, if the coaching staff sees Henderson approaching 1,000 yards, they might give him a few extra attempts late in the season.
As far as touchdowns, I’ll give Henderson the same 11 that he had in 2023. He’ll have to get in from further out, because Judkins seems more likely to get the nod in the red zone.
- Howard — The quarterback hasn’t been asked to run a lot in Day’s tenure at Ohio State, although Justin Fields surpassed 350 yards twice in that span, including the shortened COVID season of 2020.
Howard doesn’t have Fields’ wheels, but he’s a smart runner and he has a knack for knowing when to take off and get a key first down. Kelly will use quarterback designed runs and RPOs, with the former keeping the defense honest. Additionally, Howard will scramble at times. I don’t expect him to rack up the 137 carries Fields had in 2019 — which was second most on the team that year — but I expect him to at least double the 32 attempts Kyle McCord had in 2023.
I’m going to predict about 72 carries for Howard. Sacks will affect his yardage, of course, but I still think he finishes third on the team in rushing yards for the season. Because I expect more designed quarterback runs in 2024 and for Howard to be more likely to take off when a pass play breaks down, I’m going to give him more than the 2.3 yards per carry average that C.J. Stroud had in 2022. I will also put Howard’s yards per carry below Fields’ numbers in 2019 and 2020, which were 3.53 and 4.72, respectively.
I will go with a solid 3.1 yards per carry (when figuring in sacks), for a 2024 season total of 223 yards. He’ll probably chip in a few rushing touchdowns as well.
After the top three, I would expect James Peoples, Sam Williams-Dixon, and TC Caffey to get most of the remaining carries, along with whoever is the backup quarterback, followed by Emeka Egbuka, who will get his usual jet sweep opportunities. Peoples seems the likely third choice at this point, but that may still be yet to be decided.
I’ll say this trio of running backs will end up in the fourth, fifth, and sixth spots in the final rushing charts, The leader of those three will approach Howard’s numbers, and finish with around 215 yards, with the next running back around 200 yards, and the third with 178.
That’s how I see the split in playing time, the distribution of the carries, the averages per carry, and the final totals for the 2024 season playing out. Feel free to tell me where you agree/disagree in the comments below.
Speculation is fun!
Continue reading...