ON CAMPUS IN OHIO: WEEKS 11-12
By Bucklion
Week 10 Synopsis: Hello Ohio football fans. Well, the plots continue to thicken as the 2005 season winds down. Several Ohio teams still have a shot at division titles, conference titles, bowl games, BCS bids…there’s still a lot of football to be played, and the remaining games are absolutely critical to how each program will remember their season. Last week, Ohio State continued to fire on all cylinders by routing Illinois, seemingly headed to a showdown in Ann Arbor with at least a share of the 2005 Big Ten Championship and a possible BCS bowl on the line. Northwestern, however, looms first, and the Buckeyes will need to be sharp to knock off the upstart Wildcats, who still want a share of the Big Ten title themselves. The MAC picture is still wide open in both divisions. Toledo bounced back with an important win at Athens last week, and then Northern Illinois helped them out by beating Central Michigan, once again putting the MAC West at the feet of the Rockets…if they can beat the Huskies, that is. The MAC East is also taking shape, but there are still a myriad of scenarios there. Miami trounced hapless Buffalo last week, and put themselves at the top of the list. Likewise, Bowling Green bounced back to snap a losing streak by winning at Kent State, also tying them with the RedHawks for first. Akron picked a terrible time to drop a winnable game at Ball State, and though the remainder of their schedule is favorable, they’re going to need quite a bit of help to with the trip to the championship game they were denied last season. Likewise, the Bobcats’ loss to Toledo didn’t do them any favors, and they have two tough games remaining. Still, a winning record and a division title are not completely out of reach yet, though they are now truly a long shot. Cincinnati was idle last week, but at 2-2 in the Big East, they still have a chance for an upper division finish and a bowl tie-in in their inaugural campaign. Kent continues to plummet, but they still have their grudge match against Akron, and if they have a chance to knock the Zips out of a division title, they could still salvage something from a disappointing season. All in all, the next two weeks are going to be incredibly exciting, and here is your schedule and breakdown for those games.
Week 11 State Rankings:
1 (-) Ohio State (7-2, 5-1): Two conference game separate the Buckeyes from at least a share of the Big Ten title and a possible BCS bowl. Neither game, against Northwestern or at Michigan, will be easy.
2 (-) Toledo (7-2, 5-1): The Rockets are on the cusp of the Western Division title, and it is squarely in their own hands. Still, they lead 3 teams by only 1 game in the West. Their last 2 games, against Northern Illinois in the Glass Bowl and at Bowling Green, will not be at all easy, and they will probably need to win both to get to the title game because of their loss to Central Michigan.
3 (-) Miami (6-3, 4-2): The RedHawks finally look in prime form, after pasting Temple and Buffalo in consecutive weeks, though basically almost anyone could have done that. Their destiny is also in their hands, as they have a showdown with Bowling Green, followed by the closer at Athens. If they win both, they are off to the title game. If not, it’s anyone’s guess, depending on which game they lose.
4 (+3) Bowling Green (5-4, 4-2): The Falcons got an important, but lackluster, win at Kent State, who hasn’t beaten a Division I-A team all year. They close with games already mentioned above, at Miami and at home to Toledo, and they may need to win both to get to the championship game, because of their loss to Akron. If they split, all kinds of scenarios pop up. If they lose them both, a team that many thought should be ranked in the top 25 at the start of the season would finish with a losing record. One more interesting note: it is possible they could play Toledo twice in a row to close the season, in a span of only a few weeks. Can a team win over the same opponent twice in a row?
5 (-) Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2): After being idle last week, they are tied with 3 other teams with 2 conference losses, and are just one back of fellow newcomer South Florida for 2nd. That’s the good news…the bad news is they have a very tough closing stretch, beginning with West Virginia, and finishing with road trips to South Florida and Rutgers. They could finish as high as 2nd, and as low as 7th…time will tell, but the final home game with the Mountaineers will set the tone.
6 (-) Ohio (4-5, 3-3): The Bobcats put up a courageous fight against the Rockets, but were overmatched in the end. No one can doubt the progress the program has made with Frank Solich at the helm, and the Nebraska alumni should be plenty upset that they let him go. Despite their success, the Bobcats will be lucky to finish with more than the 4 wins they have, as they close at Akron and at home to Miami. Still, if they split those games, it’s possible they will finish only a game out of 1st in the East, and this definitely looks like a program on the rise. To win the division, it looks like they need to win out, and have Miami and Toledo both beat Bowling Green.
7 (-3) Akron (4-5, 3-3): The Zips couldn’t follow up their huge win over the Falcons with a win at Ball State. Now, they’re a long shot. They do hold a tiebreaker over Bowling Green, but not over Miami. They close with Ohio and their rivalry game with Kent State. The Zips aren’t out of it, but they will basically need to win out, and have Bowling Green beat Miami and lose to Toledo.
8 (-) Kent State (1-8, 0-6): They put up a good fight against the Falcons in one of their better showings of the year, but the record speaks for itself. Kent has crashed and burned after winning their last 4 games of 2004, and now it’s come down to beating Buffalo next game just to get a single DI-A win. They can still salvage a modicum of pride if they can beat hated Akron to close the season at the Rubber Bowl, especially if the game means something to the Zips…such as a share of the division title.
Head-To-Head Matchups: Weeks 11-12
(NOTE: Upset alert is from 0-10, with 10 being "Red Alert…better concentrate on these guys" and 0 being "Here’s your 400 thousand for an ass-whuppin’….thanks for coming")
Prediction record: 45-14 SU, 27-30 VL
Wednesday, November 9th
West Virginia (7-1, 4-0) at Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2)
Line: West Virginia -13½
Upset Alert: 2
Synopsis: Cincinnati still has 3 very tough conference games remaining, starting with this prime time matchup with the class of a weak Big East, West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been rolling of late, and their only blemish was to Virginia Tech. This is Cincinnati’s last home game of 2005, before closing with two conference games on the road. It is difficult to see how the Bearcats can compete with the Mountaineer talent, especially on offense, though the defense at West Virginia is also underrated, having given up 20 points only 1 time. Look for the Bearcats to try and scratch and claw to keep this one close on national TV, but too much talent from Morgantown will eventually overwhelm the underdogs in the second half.
Prediction: West Virginia 38, Cincinnati 24
Saturday, November 12th
Northwestern (6-3, 4-2) at Ohio State (7-2, 5-1)
Line: Ohio State -16
Upset Alert: 4
Synopsis: The Wildcats are coming off another improbably victory in a wild game, this one 28-27 over Iowa. With Illinois to close, the Wildcats aren’t out of the picture for a New Year’s Day bowl, or even for a share of the conference crown…yet. Ohio State is in the driver’s seat in the sense that if they win out, they get a least a share of the conference title and a possible BCS bowl bid…and the 2nd Big Ten slot if not. The Buckeyes are playing their best football of the year, and will be looking for some payback from last year, when the Wildcats handed the Buckeyes a stinging defeat in Evanston. The key to this game will be the Buckeye defense and their attack on Basanez and the spread option, but really controlling the running game will be the biggest boon for the Buckeyes. If they can keep Sutton under wraps and force Basanez to throw the ball downfield, the Buckeyes will have them right where they want them. Will Ohio State be looking ahead to Michigan? Not likely, given the result from last year and the conference title in sight. Ohio State at home will be too much for a game Northwestern team, who will look back and see losses to the Big 3 (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State) this year.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Northwestern 21
Buffalo (0-9, 0-6) at Kent State (1-8, 0-6)
Line: Kent State -8½
Upset Alert: 6
Synopsis: Yikes…plenty of good seats available here. In what could be the worst game of the decade, Kent and Buffalo will clash to see who gets that one elusive DI-A win. The edge here probably has to go to the Flashes, both for playing in front of a home crowd (such as it is) and for showing some life last week against Bowling Green. Buffalo stayed in games earlier this year, but was blown to pieces by Miami last week. If the Flashes can win, they’ll have a bit of confidence going into their rivalry game (their bowl game, in a sense) and if not, well…they’ve been bad all year, so it’s really hard to say. Buffalo has shown no reason to pick them, so it is Kent by default…I guess.
Prediction: Kent State 34, Buffalo 24
Tuesday, November 15th
Bowling Green (5-4, 4-2) at Miami (6-3, 4-2)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: At the beginning of the year, this looked like it would be for all of the proverbial marbles in the MAC East. Now, it still could be, but what a strange run it has been, as these two teams will lock up on “MAC East Tuesday”. Both teams have not lived up to preseason expectations, and both have lost 2 conference games already, something neither was figuring to do all season. The winner of this contest will control their own destiny in the MAC East, though Bowling Green closes with Toledo and Miami finishes in Athens, so neither team is a sure bet. This game will come down to which defense can control the opponent offense, because both offenses are filled with talent and both defenses are somewhat marginal, and have been terrible at times. Turnovers will also be a big key here. It’s tough to predict what will happen in this one, but Miami comes in on a better roll, executing better offensively and playing better defensively, so they look like the pick at home. Don’t count out the Falcons though, as many thought they would make a serious run at an undefeated season. It’s been a wild ride for both teams, though, as they say, I guess that’s why they play the games, right?
Prediction: Miami 35, Bowling Green 27
Ohio (4-5, 3-3) at Akron (4-5, 3-3)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: Not to be overlooked on “MAC East Tuesday” is this potentially entertaining undercard, which is basically an elimination game. Put simply, the winner of this game still has a shot of getting to the championship game, and the loser is not only out completely, but finishes with a losing record, so it’s hard to find a game in any conference with this much on the line for these two teams. The big questions are which Akron team will show up (the one that beat Bowling Green, or lost to Ball State) and whether coach Solich can pull off a signature conference win on the road in year 1 with the offense he has. Both teams have been up and down all season, so this is really a tough one to predict. Certainly, both teams should be commended for hanging in their division race and also for winning some games in what many considered serious rebuilding years for both. In this game, it is imperative for the Bobcat defense to set the tempo, and for their offense to maintain some possession so the D doesn’t get worn down like it did against Toledo last week. The Zips need their defense to thwart the weaker Ohio offense, and for their offense to take advantage of what limited opportunities it will have against the stronger Bobcat defense. Again, turnovers and penalties will be keys to this game, as will coaching and home field advantage…any guesses? Watch for this to be one of the better games of the year to watch if you like football in the state of Ohio, and look for the Zips to keep alive in the division and escape with a narrow victory.
Prediction: Akron 27, Ohio 24
Wednesday, November 16th
Northern Illinois (5-4, 4-2) at Toledo (7-2, 5-1)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: MAC week concludes with the great West showdown between the two teams that have been powerhouses in recent years. The Rockets are coming off a hard-fought road win in Athens, and the Huskies bounced back from a loss to suddenly world-beating Ball State by winning a classic in Mount Pleasant, 31-28 over upstart but enigmatic Central Michigan. That win puts the division square in the hands of the winner of this game, as Northern Illinois closes with the other team at 4-2, Western Michigan, and Toledo already beat them. So basically this game is for the ability of the winner to control their own destiny and march to the championship game with a win on closing weekend. This is another game that is extremely hard to predict, as Toledo is rock solid at the Glass Bowl, and Northern Illinois has a big win (Central Michigan) and two very close calls (Akron and Northwestern) on the road. Both of these teams are similar statistically also, equally adept at passing and running when the situation dictates. These teams are evenly matched on both sides of the ball, and this game should be a MAC classic. Can the Huskies spring the big road win? The answer is yes…but they won’t. Toledo has several seniors, and they will carry their immense talent to the conference title game by knocking off a game Northern Illinois squad in a game that should be a MAC instant classic.
Prediction: Toledo 35, Northern Illinois 34
Saturday, November 19th
Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2) at South Florida (4-3, 2-1)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: The Bearcats will come off of their game against the Mountaineers to hit the road to close the season. Stop number one is South Florida, who will be coming off of a game with hapless Syracuse. The Bulls have been difficult to figure this year, playing Penn State competitively and blowing out overhyped Louisville, and also beating Rutgers and losing a close game to Miami, while losing a game at Pittsburgh that they probably should have come up with. Still, the Bulls are solid, and they haven’t played enough conference games yet to see where they really fit in. In this one, the Bull defense will probably be too much for the fledgling Bearcat offense, and the running of Andre Hall will probably propel South Florida to victory. The Bulls could still win or share the Big East, and it looks like the Bearcats will be a stepping stone to that improbable but very possible run.
Prediction: South Florida 40, Cincinnati 17
Ohio State (7-2, 5-1) at Michigan (6-3, 4-2)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: Ah yes, what could I possibly need to say about this game? Michigan should have little trouble disposing of Indiana, and Ohio State should get a solid home win over the Wildcats. What would that do? It would set up this game for having all kinds of implications, as it should and usually does. An Ohio State win would give the Buckeyes at least a share of the Big Ten title for 2005, and a shot at a BCS bowl bid or at the very least the top non-BCS bowl slot for the conference. A Penn State loss would give the Buckeyes the title outright. A Michigan win would further clutter the standings at 6-2 in the conference, and a Penn State loss at Michigan State would give the Wolverines a share of the Big Ten title in that case. The Wolverines would also need a Wisconsin loss to Iowa to get to the BCS, which is unlikely in any event. Not much needs to be said about this one, as most everyone reading this knows all of the ins and outs of this rivalry. Will the Wolverine offense play the game of their season against a very good Buckeye D? Will Troy Smith repeat his performance from last year? Can the Wolverine defense overachieve for one magical game? Will Hart play? Will Henne get knocked out of the game? Is coach Tressel in Lloyd Carr’s head? How will coach Tressel call plays on the road in Ann Arbor? Who knows the answers to any of these, but this should be another game for the ages. Will the Buckeyes be denied a conference title? Not by Michigan this year…look for another instant classic in rivalry week, and listen for the grumblings from Ann Arbor with one more big win for the Buckeyes.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Michigan 24
By Bucklion
Week 10 Synopsis: Hello Ohio football fans. Well, the plots continue to thicken as the 2005 season winds down. Several Ohio teams still have a shot at division titles, conference titles, bowl games, BCS bids…there’s still a lot of football to be played, and the remaining games are absolutely critical to how each program will remember their season. Last week, Ohio State continued to fire on all cylinders by routing Illinois, seemingly headed to a showdown in Ann Arbor with at least a share of the 2005 Big Ten Championship and a possible BCS bowl on the line. Northwestern, however, looms first, and the Buckeyes will need to be sharp to knock off the upstart Wildcats, who still want a share of the Big Ten title themselves. The MAC picture is still wide open in both divisions. Toledo bounced back with an important win at Athens last week, and then Northern Illinois helped them out by beating Central Michigan, once again putting the MAC West at the feet of the Rockets…if they can beat the Huskies, that is. The MAC East is also taking shape, but there are still a myriad of scenarios there. Miami trounced hapless Buffalo last week, and put themselves at the top of the list. Likewise, Bowling Green bounced back to snap a losing streak by winning at Kent State, also tying them with the RedHawks for first. Akron picked a terrible time to drop a winnable game at Ball State, and though the remainder of their schedule is favorable, they’re going to need quite a bit of help to with the trip to the championship game they were denied last season. Likewise, the Bobcats’ loss to Toledo didn’t do them any favors, and they have two tough games remaining. Still, a winning record and a division title are not completely out of reach yet, though they are now truly a long shot. Cincinnati was idle last week, but at 2-2 in the Big East, they still have a chance for an upper division finish and a bowl tie-in in their inaugural campaign. Kent continues to plummet, but they still have their grudge match against Akron, and if they have a chance to knock the Zips out of a division title, they could still salvage something from a disappointing season. All in all, the next two weeks are going to be incredibly exciting, and here is your schedule and breakdown for those games.
Week 11 State Rankings:
1 (-) Ohio State (7-2, 5-1): Two conference game separate the Buckeyes from at least a share of the Big Ten title and a possible BCS bowl. Neither game, against Northwestern or at Michigan, will be easy.
2 (-) Toledo (7-2, 5-1): The Rockets are on the cusp of the Western Division title, and it is squarely in their own hands. Still, they lead 3 teams by only 1 game in the West. Their last 2 games, against Northern Illinois in the Glass Bowl and at Bowling Green, will not be at all easy, and they will probably need to win both to get to the title game because of their loss to Central Michigan.
3 (-) Miami (6-3, 4-2): The RedHawks finally look in prime form, after pasting Temple and Buffalo in consecutive weeks, though basically almost anyone could have done that. Their destiny is also in their hands, as they have a showdown with Bowling Green, followed by the closer at Athens. If they win both, they are off to the title game. If not, it’s anyone’s guess, depending on which game they lose.
4 (+3) Bowling Green (5-4, 4-2): The Falcons got an important, but lackluster, win at Kent State, who hasn’t beaten a Division I-A team all year. They close with games already mentioned above, at Miami and at home to Toledo, and they may need to win both to get to the championship game, because of their loss to Akron. If they split, all kinds of scenarios pop up. If they lose them both, a team that many thought should be ranked in the top 25 at the start of the season would finish with a losing record. One more interesting note: it is possible they could play Toledo twice in a row to close the season, in a span of only a few weeks. Can a team win over the same opponent twice in a row?
5 (-) Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2): After being idle last week, they are tied with 3 other teams with 2 conference losses, and are just one back of fellow newcomer South Florida for 2nd. That’s the good news…the bad news is they have a very tough closing stretch, beginning with West Virginia, and finishing with road trips to South Florida and Rutgers. They could finish as high as 2nd, and as low as 7th…time will tell, but the final home game with the Mountaineers will set the tone.
6 (-) Ohio (4-5, 3-3): The Bobcats put up a courageous fight against the Rockets, but were overmatched in the end. No one can doubt the progress the program has made with Frank Solich at the helm, and the Nebraska alumni should be plenty upset that they let him go. Despite their success, the Bobcats will be lucky to finish with more than the 4 wins they have, as they close at Akron and at home to Miami. Still, if they split those games, it’s possible they will finish only a game out of 1st in the East, and this definitely looks like a program on the rise. To win the division, it looks like they need to win out, and have Miami and Toledo both beat Bowling Green.
7 (-3) Akron (4-5, 3-3): The Zips couldn’t follow up their huge win over the Falcons with a win at Ball State. Now, they’re a long shot. They do hold a tiebreaker over Bowling Green, but not over Miami. They close with Ohio and their rivalry game with Kent State. The Zips aren’t out of it, but they will basically need to win out, and have Bowling Green beat Miami and lose to Toledo.
8 (-) Kent State (1-8, 0-6): They put up a good fight against the Falcons in one of their better showings of the year, but the record speaks for itself. Kent has crashed and burned after winning their last 4 games of 2004, and now it’s come down to beating Buffalo next game just to get a single DI-A win. They can still salvage a modicum of pride if they can beat hated Akron to close the season at the Rubber Bowl, especially if the game means something to the Zips…such as a share of the division title.
Head-To-Head Matchups: Weeks 11-12
(NOTE: Upset alert is from 0-10, with 10 being "Red Alert…better concentrate on these guys" and 0 being "Here’s your 400 thousand for an ass-whuppin’….thanks for coming")
Prediction record: 45-14 SU, 27-30 VL
Wednesday, November 9th
West Virginia (7-1, 4-0) at Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2)
Line: West Virginia -13½
Upset Alert: 2
Synopsis: Cincinnati still has 3 very tough conference games remaining, starting with this prime time matchup with the class of a weak Big East, West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been rolling of late, and their only blemish was to Virginia Tech. This is Cincinnati’s last home game of 2005, before closing with two conference games on the road. It is difficult to see how the Bearcats can compete with the Mountaineer talent, especially on offense, though the defense at West Virginia is also underrated, having given up 20 points only 1 time. Look for the Bearcats to try and scratch and claw to keep this one close on national TV, but too much talent from Morgantown will eventually overwhelm the underdogs in the second half.
Prediction: West Virginia 38, Cincinnati 24
Saturday, November 12th
Northwestern (6-3, 4-2) at Ohio State (7-2, 5-1)
Line: Ohio State -16
Upset Alert: 4
Synopsis: The Wildcats are coming off another improbably victory in a wild game, this one 28-27 over Iowa. With Illinois to close, the Wildcats aren’t out of the picture for a New Year’s Day bowl, or even for a share of the conference crown…yet. Ohio State is in the driver’s seat in the sense that if they win out, they get a least a share of the conference title and a possible BCS bowl bid…and the 2nd Big Ten slot if not. The Buckeyes are playing their best football of the year, and will be looking for some payback from last year, when the Wildcats handed the Buckeyes a stinging defeat in Evanston. The key to this game will be the Buckeye defense and their attack on Basanez and the spread option, but really controlling the running game will be the biggest boon for the Buckeyes. If they can keep Sutton under wraps and force Basanez to throw the ball downfield, the Buckeyes will have them right where they want them. Will Ohio State be looking ahead to Michigan? Not likely, given the result from last year and the conference title in sight. Ohio State at home will be too much for a game Northwestern team, who will look back and see losses to the Big 3 (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State) this year.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Northwestern 21
Buffalo (0-9, 0-6) at Kent State (1-8, 0-6)
Line: Kent State -8½
Upset Alert: 6
Synopsis: Yikes…plenty of good seats available here. In what could be the worst game of the decade, Kent and Buffalo will clash to see who gets that one elusive DI-A win. The edge here probably has to go to the Flashes, both for playing in front of a home crowd (such as it is) and for showing some life last week against Bowling Green. Buffalo stayed in games earlier this year, but was blown to pieces by Miami last week. If the Flashes can win, they’ll have a bit of confidence going into their rivalry game (their bowl game, in a sense) and if not, well…they’ve been bad all year, so it’s really hard to say. Buffalo has shown no reason to pick them, so it is Kent by default…I guess.
Prediction: Kent State 34, Buffalo 24
Tuesday, November 15th
Bowling Green (5-4, 4-2) at Miami (6-3, 4-2)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: At the beginning of the year, this looked like it would be for all of the proverbial marbles in the MAC East. Now, it still could be, but what a strange run it has been, as these two teams will lock up on “MAC East Tuesday”. Both teams have not lived up to preseason expectations, and both have lost 2 conference games already, something neither was figuring to do all season. The winner of this contest will control their own destiny in the MAC East, though Bowling Green closes with Toledo and Miami finishes in Athens, so neither team is a sure bet. This game will come down to which defense can control the opponent offense, because both offenses are filled with talent and both defenses are somewhat marginal, and have been terrible at times. Turnovers will also be a big key here. It’s tough to predict what will happen in this one, but Miami comes in on a better roll, executing better offensively and playing better defensively, so they look like the pick at home. Don’t count out the Falcons though, as many thought they would make a serious run at an undefeated season. It’s been a wild ride for both teams, though, as they say, I guess that’s why they play the games, right?
Prediction: Miami 35, Bowling Green 27
Ohio (4-5, 3-3) at Akron (4-5, 3-3)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: Not to be overlooked on “MAC East Tuesday” is this potentially entertaining undercard, which is basically an elimination game. Put simply, the winner of this game still has a shot of getting to the championship game, and the loser is not only out completely, but finishes with a losing record, so it’s hard to find a game in any conference with this much on the line for these two teams. The big questions are which Akron team will show up (the one that beat Bowling Green, or lost to Ball State) and whether coach Solich can pull off a signature conference win on the road in year 1 with the offense he has. Both teams have been up and down all season, so this is really a tough one to predict. Certainly, both teams should be commended for hanging in their division race and also for winning some games in what many considered serious rebuilding years for both. In this game, it is imperative for the Bobcat defense to set the tempo, and for their offense to maintain some possession so the D doesn’t get worn down like it did against Toledo last week. The Zips need their defense to thwart the weaker Ohio offense, and for their offense to take advantage of what limited opportunities it will have against the stronger Bobcat defense. Again, turnovers and penalties will be keys to this game, as will coaching and home field advantage…any guesses? Watch for this to be one of the better games of the year to watch if you like football in the state of Ohio, and look for the Zips to keep alive in the division and escape with a narrow victory.
Prediction: Akron 27, Ohio 24
Wednesday, November 16th
Northern Illinois (5-4, 4-2) at Toledo (7-2, 5-1)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: MAC week concludes with the great West showdown between the two teams that have been powerhouses in recent years. The Rockets are coming off a hard-fought road win in Athens, and the Huskies bounced back from a loss to suddenly world-beating Ball State by winning a classic in Mount Pleasant, 31-28 over upstart but enigmatic Central Michigan. That win puts the division square in the hands of the winner of this game, as Northern Illinois closes with the other team at 4-2, Western Michigan, and Toledo already beat them. So basically this game is for the ability of the winner to control their own destiny and march to the championship game with a win on closing weekend. This is another game that is extremely hard to predict, as Toledo is rock solid at the Glass Bowl, and Northern Illinois has a big win (Central Michigan) and two very close calls (Akron and Northwestern) on the road. Both of these teams are similar statistically also, equally adept at passing and running when the situation dictates. These teams are evenly matched on both sides of the ball, and this game should be a MAC classic. Can the Huskies spring the big road win? The answer is yes…but they won’t. Toledo has several seniors, and they will carry their immense talent to the conference title game by knocking off a game Northern Illinois squad in a game that should be a MAC instant classic.
Prediction: Toledo 35, Northern Illinois 34
Saturday, November 19th
Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2) at South Florida (4-3, 2-1)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: The Bearcats will come off of their game against the Mountaineers to hit the road to close the season. Stop number one is South Florida, who will be coming off of a game with hapless Syracuse. The Bulls have been difficult to figure this year, playing Penn State competitively and blowing out overhyped Louisville, and also beating Rutgers and losing a close game to Miami, while losing a game at Pittsburgh that they probably should have come up with. Still, the Bulls are solid, and they haven’t played enough conference games yet to see where they really fit in. In this one, the Bull defense will probably be too much for the fledgling Bearcat offense, and the running of Andre Hall will probably propel South Florida to victory. The Bulls could still win or share the Big East, and it looks like the Bearcats will be a stepping stone to that improbable but very possible run.
Prediction: South Florida 40, Cincinnati 17
Ohio State (7-2, 5-1) at Michigan (6-3, 4-2)
Line: NA
Upset Alert: NA
Synopsis: Ah yes, what could I possibly need to say about this game? Michigan should have little trouble disposing of Indiana, and Ohio State should get a solid home win over the Wildcats. What would that do? It would set up this game for having all kinds of implications, as it should and usually does. An Ohio State win would give the Buckeyes at least a share of the Big Ten title for 2005, and a shot at a BCS bowl bid or at the very least the top non-BCS bowl slot for the conference. A Penn State loss would give the Buckeyes the title outright. A Michigan win would further clutter the standings at 6-2 in the conference, and a Penn State loss at Michigan State would give the Wolverines a share of the Big Ten title in that case. The Wolverines would also need a Wisconsin loss to Iowa to get to the BCS, which is unlikely in any event. Not much needs to be said about this one, as most everyone reading this knows all of the ins and outs of this rivalry. Will the Wolverine offense play the game of their season against a very good Buckeye D? Will Troy Smith repeat his performance from last year? Can the Wolverine defense overachieve for one magical game? Will Hart play? Will Henne get knocked out of the game? Is coach Tressel in Lloyd Carr’s head? How will coach Tressel call plays on the road in Ann Arbor? Who knows the answers to any of these, but this should be another game for the ages. Will the Buckeyes be denied a conference title? Not by Michigan this year…look for another instant classic in rivalry week, and listen for the grumblings from Ann Arbor with one more big win for the Buckeyes.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Michigan 24