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LGHL Ohio State men’s basketball vs. Northwestern: Game preview and prediction

Brett Ludwiczak

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Ohio State men’s basketball vs. Northwestern: Game preview and prediction
Brett Ludwiczak
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NCAA Basketball: Maryland at Northwestern

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The Buckeyes will look to put Tuesday’s loss to Nebraska behind them when take on Northwestern tonight.

Following Tuesday night’s 83-69 loss to Nebraska in Lincoln, Ohio State will be on the road again tonight, battling Northwestern at Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston. The Buckeyes desperately need a win against the Wildcats to try and give them a shot at finishing January with a 4-4 record. Not only does Ohio State have to beat Northwestern tonight to make that happen, they’ll also have to defeat Illinois on Tuesday night in Columbus.

The loss to Nebraska on Tuesday was Ohio State’s fourth loss in the last five games. The Buckeyes went into the halftime break trailing the Cornhuskers 43-35, and things didn’t get better in the second half as Fred Hoiberg’s team led by double-digits for the majority of the 20 minutes after halftime. Ohio State had no answer for Rienk Mast, who not only scored a career-high 34 points in the win, the Bradley transfer also grabbed 10 rebounds.

As ugly as the final score was for the Buckeyes, there were a few positives to come out of the loss. Roddy Gayle Jr. struggled shooting the basketball, finishing with just six points in the game, but the guard from Niagara Falls set a career-high by dishing out eight assists. While Ohio State did a good job at distributing the basketball and not committing too many turnovers, the Buckeyes just couldn’t find an answer to slow down Mast and the Nebraska offense.

Another positive in the loss was the introduction of Bowen Hardman in the game. Looking for a spark in the second half, head coach Chris Holtmann turned to Hardman, who many say is the best shooter on the team. Hardman didn’t disappoint, hitting three of the seven three-pointers he attempted, scoring 11 points in just eight minutes of playing time.

While it remains to be seen if Hardman will see an increase in playing time going forward, the sophomore from Cincinnati at least saw some time on the floor in a road Big Ten game and was able to produce when his number was called.

NCAA Basketball: Ohio State at Nebraska
Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

Hardman was one of three Buckeyes to score in double figures in the game. Bruce Thornton hit his average for the season, netting 16 points to lead Ohio State in scoring in the loss. Jamison Battle was the other Buckeye to score at least 10 points in the loss, finishing with 11 points, and adding seven rebounds. With his three triples in the game, Battle now has 56 three-pointers on the season, which is 22 more than Bruce Thornton, who is second on the team from behind the arc.


Preview


While Ohio State is licking the wounds after another January loss, Northwestern is riding high heading into this game after a 96-91 overtime win over Illinois on Wednesday. Boo Buie forced overtime when his layup with 23 seconds left in regulation tied the game at 76. The Wildcats just wanted the game a little more than the Fighting Illini on Wednesday, scoring the first nine points of overtime to secure the victory over their in-state foe. Buie scored a team-high 29 points, and Brooks Barnhizer added 23 points.

Entering tonight’s game, Ohio State leads the all-time series 123-49, winning six of the last 10 contests with the Wildcats. The 73-57 win by the Buckeyes over Northwestern on the first day of 2023 in Evanston was actually the last road win by Ohio State. Since then the Buckeyes have lost 13 straight true road games. The Wildcats were able to return the favor a month later by beating Ohio State 69-63 at Value City Arena. The loss to Northwestern was in the middle of a brutal nine-game losing streak for the Buckeyes.

This isn’t the Northwestern team that you have become accustomed to over the years that would play at a slow tempo. With their victory on Wednesday, the Wildcats have now scored at least 88 points in three Big Ten games this year, marking the first time they have accomplished that feat since the 1975-76 season.

Boo Buie is leading Northwestern, averaging 18.5 points per game. Buie is one of four Wildcats averaging at least 10 points per game this year. Guard Brooks Barnhizer is second on the team with a 14.9 points per game average, while Ty Berry and Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg are both averaging over 11 points per contest.

Northwestern v Nebraska
Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images

Along with their scoring prowess, Northwestern does a great job when it comes to turnovers. Through 19 games this season, the Wildcats are turning the ball over just 8.9 times per game, which ranks first in the Big Ten and fourth in the country. On the defensive side of the ball, Northwestern forces 13.8 turnovers per game, ranking third in the conference.

After leading the Big Ten with a +4.3 turnover margin last season, the Wildcats have been even better this year, with their turnover margin rising to a +4.8. Barnhizer has been a pest on the defensive end this season, entering tonight’s game averaging 2.0 steals per game.


Prediction


Right now it is impossible to trust the Ohio State men’s basketball team. The Buckeyes have the talent to contend in the Big Ten, for some reason they just keep faltering in January under Chris Holtmann.

Ohio State is already on the bubble when it comes to earning a spot in the NCAA Tournament in March. With some tough games still on the schedule, the Buckeyes will need to dig deep to win some of those games to stay in contention for a tournament bid. Add in tonight’s game being a road game, which have been impossible for Ohio State to win over the past year, and it feels like the season is about to be over for the Buckeyes before the calendar turns to February.

Despite Ohio State being deeper and more talented than Northwestern, the Wildcats are coached better and just play hungrier basketball. Chris Collins is in his 11th season as head coach in Evanston, and during his time he has taken the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament twice. Their 2017 appearance was their first in school history, while last season Northwestern defeated Boise State in the first round before falling 68-63 to UCLA in the second round. Right now it’s looking a lot more like the Wildcats will make this year’s tournament than the Buckeyes.

Not to say it’s impossible Ohio State wins tonight in Evanston, they’ll just have to play one of their best games of the season to defeat a very tough Northwestern squad. Thornton, Battle, and Gayle are a strong trio when they are playing well and supported by some interior toughness from Felix Okpara and Zed Key. The Buckeyes are going to need the two big men to be at their best tonight, as well as the Ohio State bench to give the team some strong contributions if they want to register their first road win in over a year.



ESPN BPI: Northwestern 64.4%
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: Big Ten Network

LGHL score prediction: Northwestern 79, Ohio State 74


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