Michael Citro
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Ohio State gets college football’s equivalent of the “Group of Death” in the playoff
Michael Citro via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Buckeyes could hardly have a tougher path to the semifinals than the one they’ve been given, but that’s what losing to Michigan gets them.
Now that we know who is in, which teams will play in the first round, and who will host on-campus games in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, it’s worth taking a look at each team’s path to the semifinals.
But first, a reminder of where everyone is seeded.
The top four rated conference champions get a first-round bye. This theoretically makes for an easier path to a national championship, as it’s one fewer win needed to get there and less wear and tear on the players during the playoff run. The drawback is not getting a game on campus, and perhaps losing momentum with a week off while other teams might gain momentum with a first-round win.
In this first season with 12 teams in the playoff, those four slots went to:
They’ll each have this weekend off while they wait for their next opponents.
Texas fell to No. 5 by losing in overtime to Georgia after the Longhorns largely approached their matchup with Georgia the way Ohio State decided to play against Michigan — which is to say they played into their opponents’ strengths and away from their own.
The No. 6 seed is Penn State. It’s understandable if Ohio State fans aren’t happy with that decision, because the Nittany Lions lost at home to the Buckeyes and lost by more against common opponent Oregon on a neutral field than OSU did in a true road contest.
Semi-independent and part-time ACC moonlighters Notre Dame got the No. 7 seed, with the Buckeyes getting the last home game at No. 8.
The first-round matchups then were set by figuring out which teams got to be the ninth through 12th seeds. Tennessee was placed ninth after finishing behind Georgia in the SEC at 10-2 by suffering a two-touchdown loss to the Bulldogs. Indiana was placed 10th, with ACC runners-up SMU getting the No. 11 seed and ACC champions Clemson getting in at No. 12.
Because Clemson won the ACC Championship Game, it got in over Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina, which all finished higher in the final CFP rankings.
Looking at the first-round matchups, the final seeding appears to give Ohio State or Tennessee the toughest road to the semifinals, while Penn State may have the easiest.
The Buckeyes have to play a physical and athletic Tennessee team, although they get to be at home for the game. Ryan Day’s track record in big games isn’t going to make OSU fans anything other than nervous going into Saturday, but it is a winnable game if the Buckeyes can play defense they way they have all season and get the offense back on track. The Vols may claim the toughest road to the semis because they are literally on the road, but there is no lack of swagger in Knoxville and the Vols will be ready for the challenge.
The winner gets Oregon in the Rose Bowl, so it’s a longer trip for the winner of the first-round game, although the Buckeyes have had success against the Ducks in Rose Bowls before. Still, having to play the best team in college football throughout the season is a difficult second step on the journey.
On the other end of the spectrum is Penn State, which gets to host SMU at Beaver Stadium Saturday at noon. The Nittany Lions are tough to beat at home, and may be feeling confident after playing Oregon fairly close in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should they get past SMU, they’ll face Boise State, which has had some scares this season. I would expect Penn State to be favored in a Fiesta Bowl matchup against the Mountain West winners.
If Ohio State and Tennessee aren’t the teams with the most difficult path through, it might be Indiana. The Hoosiers get to stay in state, but they’ll travel to South Bend to face Notre Dame Friday night. Indiana can win that game, but this is unfamiliar territory for the Hoosiers. If they do get past the Irish, their reward will be a Sugar Bowl meeting with Georgia.
Texas fans will like their path to the semifinals. First up is a home game Saturday afternoon against a three-loss Clemson team that got destroyed by Georgia to open the season, lost at home to Louisville, and lost a close rivalry matchup against South Carolina. The Tigers were fortunate to get a long kickoff return after SMU tied the game with seconds left on Saturday, allowing them to get into long field-goal range to make the last-second winning kick rather than facing a momentum-laden Mustangs team in overtime.
The Texas-Clemson winner will face Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. It’s hard to know exactly how good the 11-2 Big XII champs are. They lost to Texas Tech and Cincinnati, which weren’t exactly juggernauts, and had narrow wins against the likes of North Texas, Mississippi State, Kansas, UCF, and BYU before blowing out Arizona and Iowa State.
If I had to handicap the path to the semifinals for the eight teams that have to play the extra game in this College Football Playoff from hardest to easiest, I’d go:
Beyond the first weekend, Oregon was given no favors by earning the No. 1 seed, as the Ducks would have to play the Tennessee-Ohio State winner, while Georgia would seem to have the easiest bowl opponent. Arizona State and Boise State will have a tough matchup whoever wins in the first round, but I like the Broncos over SMU much more than their chances against Penn State.
Arizona State is a complete wild card to me, but I like Texas to get past them, and if somehow Clemson dumps the Longhorns, I think the Sun Devils would take that result happily.
But enough about what I think. What do you think the easiest and toughest paths through the postseason are? Let me know in the comments section.
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Michael Citro via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Buckeyes could hardly have a tougher path to the semifinals than the one they’ve been given, but that’s what losing to Michigan gets them.
Now that we know who is in, which teams will play in the first round, and who will host on-campus games in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, it’s worth taking a look at each team’s path to the semifinals.
But first, a reminder of where everyone is seeded.
THE BRACKET IS SET
Who are you taking to win the #CFBPlayoff? pic.twitter.com/9BDWwesEVL
— ESPN (@espn) December 8, 2024
The top four rated conference champions get a first-round bye. This theoretically makes for an easier path to a national championship, as it’s one fewer win needed to get there and less wear and tear on the players during the playoff run. The drawback is not getting a game on campus, and perhaps losing momentum with a week off while other teams might gain momentum with a first-round win.
In this first season with 12 teams in the playoff, those four slots went to:
- Top-seeded Oregon, the Big Ten champion
- Second-seeded Georgia, the SEC winner that lost a couple of games and escaped in overtime in each of the last two weeks
- Third-seeded Boise State, which won the Mountain West champion, went 12-1 and finished ninth in the final CFP standings
- Arizona State, which won the Big XII Saturday by beating Iowa State.
They’ll each have this weekend off while they wait for their next opponents.
Texas fell to No. 5 by losing in overtime to Georgia after the Longhorns largely approached their matchup with Georgia the way Ohio State decided to play against Michigan — which is to say they played into their opponents’ strengths and away from their own.
The No. 6 seed is Penn State. It’s understandable if Ohio State fans aren’t happy with that decision, because the Nittany Lions lost at home to the Buckeyes and lost by more against common opponent Oregon on a neutral field than OSU did in a true road contest.
Semi-independent and part-time ACC moonlighters Notre Dame got the No. 7 seed, with the Buckeyes getting the last home game at No. 8.
The first-round matchups then were set by figuring out which teams got to be the ninth through 12th seeds. Tennessee was placed ninth after finishing behind Georgia in the SEC at 10-2 by suffering a two-touchdown loss to the Bulldogs. Indiana was placed 10th, with ACC runners-up SMU getting the No. 11 seed and ACC champions Clemson getting in at No. 12.
Because Clemson won the ACC Championship Game, it got in over Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina, which all finished higher in the final CFP rankings.
The Path to Glory
Looking at the first-round matchups, the final seeding appears to give Ohio State or Tennessee the toughest road to the semifinals, while Penn State may have the easiest.
The Buckeyes have to play a physical and athletic Tennessee team, although they get to be at home for the game. Ryan Day’s track record in big games isn’t going to make OSU fans anything other than nervous going into Saturday, but it is a winnable game if the Buckeyes can play defense they way they have all season and get the offense back on track. The Vols may claim the toughest road to the semis because they are literally on the road, but there is no lack of swagger in Knoxville and the Vols will be ready for the challenge.
The winner gets Oregon in the Rose Bowl, so it’s a longer trip for the winner of the first-round game, although the Buckeyes have had success against the Ducks in Rose Bowls before. Still, having to play the best team in college football throughout the season is a difficult second step on the journey.
On the other end of the spectrum is Penn State, which gets to host SMU at Beaver Stadium Saturday at noon. The Nittany Lions are tough to beat at home, and may be feeling confident after playing Oregon fairly close in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should they get past SMU, they’ll face Boise State, which has had some scares this season. I would expect Penn State to be favored in a Fiesta Bowl matchup against the Mountain West winners.
If Ohio State and Tennessee aren’t the teams with the most difficult path through, it might be Indiana. The Hoosiers get to stay in state, but they’ll travel to South Bend to face Notre Dame Friday night. Indiana can win that game, but this is unfamiliar territory for the Hoosiers. If they do get past the Irish, their reward will be a Sugar Bowl meeting with Georgia.
Texas fans will like their path to the semifinals. First up is a home game Saturday afternoon against a three-loss Clemson team that got destroyed by Georgia to open the season, lost at home to Louisville, and lost a close rivalry matchup against South Carolina. The Tigers were fortunate to get a long kickoff return after SMU tied the game with seconds left on Saturday, allowing them to get into long field-goal range to make the last-second winning kick rather than facing a momentum-laden Mustangs team in overtime.
The Texas-Clemson winner will face Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. It’s hard to know exactly how good the 11-2 Big XII champs are. They lost to Texas Tech and Cincinnati, which weren’t exactly juggernauts, and had narrow wins against the likes of North Texas, Mississippi State, Kansas, UCF, and BYU before blowing out Arizona and Iowa State.
If I had to handicap the path to the semifinals for the eight teams that have to play the extra game in this College Football Playoff from hardest to easiest, I’d go:
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- Notre Dame
- SMU
- Clemson
- Texas
- Penn State
Beyond the first weekend, Oregon was given no favors by earning the No. 1 seed, as the Ducks would have to play the Tennessee-Ohio State winner, while Georgia would seem to have the easiest bowl opponent. Arizona State and Boise State will have a tough matchup whoever wins in the first round, but I like the Broncos over SMU much more than their chances against Penn State.
Arizona State is a complete wild card to me, but I like Texas to get past them, and if somehow Clemson dumps the Longhorns, I think the Sun Devils would take that result happily.
But enough about what I think. What do you think the easiest and toughest paths through the postseason are? Let me know in the comments section.
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