NCAA Regional Projections (May 21)

[ColinW]

The College Baseball Blog has released the newest Regional Projections.

The Buckeyes are the 2 seed in Atlanta this week.

The College Baseball Blog | NCAA Regional Projections (May 21)

 

[reagdog]

Why is ASU a 6 seed when they have the best record in the nation?

 

[ColinW]

To be honest, you could probably flip a coin for 3-6. They all have strengths and weaknesses. Irvine has a weak RPI, but they are 20-1 in the Big West. Fullerton has 31 top 100 RPI wins, but they are just hanging on to 2nd in their conference behind Irvine. North Carolina has a strong RPI and 25 top 100 wins, but they didn't win the ACC. Arizona State has a strong RPI and overall record, but they only have 8 wins against the RPI top 50 and only played 15 road games. You compare that to a team like UC Irvine who has 16 road WINS, and you can see why they might have a little better record than a few of the teams they are competing against for the higher national seeds.

 

[reagdog]

To be honest, you could probably flip a coin for 3-6. They all have strengths and weaknesses. Irvine has a weak RPI, but they are 20-1 in the Big West. Fullerton has 31 top 100 RPI wins, but they are just hanging on to 2nd in their conference behind Irvine. North Carolina has a strong RPI and 25 top 100 wins, but they didn't win the ACC. Arizona State has a strong RPI and overall record, but they only have 8 wins against the RPI top 50 and only played 15 road games. You compare that to a team like UC Irvine who has 16 road WINS, and you can see why they might have a little better record than a few of the teams they are competing against for the higher national seeds.

Thanks for your logic. How many wins does ASU have against the top 100? You mention NC and Fullerton against the top 100 and compare ASU to the top 50, so I was just wondering what it was apples to apples. I understand the reasoning behind the lack of road games, but I just figured your website would have rated them higher since they are rated higher on most other polls.

 

[ColinW]

ASU has 8 top 50, and 22 top 100. UNC has 16 top 50 and 25 top 100. Fullerton has 12 top 50 and 31 top 100.

The main knock on ASU is their lack of road games and top 50 wins. They have a good conference record and their top 100 wins are there.

It's hard to say which criteria the commitee will place more stock in.

 

[Nutriaitch]

top 50 wins / top 100 wins

how are LSU's numbers in this department?

 

[ColinW]

LSU has 18 top 50 wins and 26 top 100 wins. They'll have a chance to add to that too because all of the teams left in the SEC tournament are in the top 50.

 

[Nutriaitch]

LSU has 18 top 50 wins and 26 top 100 wins. They'll have a chance to add to that too because all of the teams left in the SEC tournament are in the top 50.

do you think we have to win the SEC tourney to keep that projected #1 overall seed?
if not, how many more wins do you think we'll need?

 

[reagdog]

ASU has 8 top 50, and 22 top 100. UNC has 16 top 50 and 25 top 100. Fullerton has 12 top 50 and 31 top 100.

The main knock on ASU is their lack of road games and top 50 wins. They have a good conference record and their top 100 wins are there.

It's hard to say which criteria the commitee will place more stock in.

Thanks, it would have been nice if the rest of Pac-10 didn't suck so bad this year.

 

[ColinW]

do you think we have to win the SEC tourney to keep that projected #1 overall seed?
if not, how many more wins do you think we'll need?

Not necessarily. It's hard to say exactly what LSU needs to do because it will depend a lot on what the other teams do. If Texas loses to KSU tomorrow then they will have gone 1-2 in the Big 12 tournament, and that's probably not enough to overtake LSU. Fullerton and North Carolina are probably the only other teams that are threats for the top overall seed. Fullerton would probably have to sweep Long Beach State this weekend, and North Carolina would need to win the ACC Tournament championship.

No matter what happens, I think LSU is pretty much locked into one of the top 4 national seeds. The good thing for LSU, compared to the rest of the teams competing for the top national seed, is that they are going to have some opportunities to pick up some top 25 wins with South Carolina and potentially Georgia ahead.