Brett Ludwiczak
Guest
MC&J: Week 13’s national schedule will have plenty on the line
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Outside of the Big Ten, there are a number of games with huge implications.
Happy Thanksgiving to all! Hopefully over the next few days we’ll stuff ourselves with copious amounts of delicious food to go along with these winning picks. There is some great games spread over the next few days, so enjoy the last week of the regular season before the conference championship games next week,
No. 9 Missouri (-7.5) v. Arkansas - Friday 4:00 p.m. ET - CBS
Last week’s game against Florida wasn’t the prettiest game for Missouri, but all that matters is the Tigers earned the victory over the Gators. With the win, Missouri kept their hopes for a New Year’s Six bowl bid alive. It was a group effort on Saturday night for the offense of the Tigers. Brady Cook threw for over 300 yards, Luther Burden hauled in nine passes for 158 yards, while Cody Schrader rushed for 148 yards and a touchdown in the victory.
This year will be one to forget for Arkansas. The Razorbacks enter Friday’s game with a 4-7 record, falling well short of expectations heading into the season. The only win for Sam Pittman’s team in SEC play this year was a 39-36 victory over Florida in overtime a few weeks ago. The problem for Arkansas this year is quarterback KJ Jefferson hasn’t gotten much help on the offensive end, and since the Razorbacks have had trouble moving the football, it has put more pressure on the defense.
There’s no question Missouri is the better team right now. It’s not like Arkansas has to play hard for head coach Sam Pittman, since the athletic department already announced Pittman would return for the 2024 season. Missouri will be looking for their 10th win of the season while the Razorbacks will be looking forward to their season finally ending.
Missouri 38, Arkansas 17
Texas Tech v. No. 7 Texas (-12.5) - Friday 7:30 p.m. ET - ABC
This isn’t the Texas Tech team we have become accustomed to over the years. The Red Raiders actually prefer to run the football over throwing it. Tahj Brooks has rushed for 1,352 yards and nine touchdowns this year. Just how much is Texas Tech running the football? They actually have 18 more rushing attempts than passing attempts through the first 11 games of the season.
Texas is certainly going to need some help if they are going to make the College Football Playoff this year. Even if the Longhorns don’t earn a spot in the playoff, at least they still have a chance to win the Big 12 crown in their final year in the conference. Currently Texas controls their own destiny when it comes to earning a spot in next week’s Big 12 Championship Game. Last week the Longhorns earned a gritty 26-16 win over Iowa State in Ames.
Texas Tech has found something lately with their running game, as they enter this contest on a three-game winning streak. Texas has dealt with a lot this season. The loss to Oklahoma, an injury to Quinn Ewers that cost him a couple games, and the season-ending knee injury to running back Jonathon Brooks. 12.5 points feels like a few too many points to lay with a Texas team that has won four of their last five games by 10 points or less. The Red Raiders shorten the game by keeping it on the ground, putting a bit of a scare into Texas in their final meeting as conference foes.
Texas 28, Texas Tech 24
No. 16 Oregon State v. No. 6 Oregon (-13.5) - Friday 8:30 p.m. ET - FOX
Last week felt like Oregon State’s Super Bowl. Had the Beavers been able to beat Washington, not only would they have thrown a wrench into the playoff hopes of the Huskies, they would have also put themselves in position to make the Pac-12 Championship Game. Not that the Beavers won’t be hyped for Friday night’s final conference game against their in-state rivals, there just isn’t as much juice flowing as there could have been if they had defeated Washington.
Right now Oregon is playing like the best team in the country. The Ducks left no doubt last week against Arizona State, with Bo Nix throwing six touchdowns in the first half of the blowout of the Sun Devils in Tempe. For as many weapons as Oregon State had to deal with last week against Washington, they’ll have even more on their plate this week when they travel to Eugene to take on the Ducks.
There is a lot going on in this matchup. Not only will Oregon be looking to state their case as a playoff contender, they’ll be trying to make the Pac-12 Championship Game, along with avenging last year’s loss to Oregon State. Maybe if the Beavers had won last week I’d like their chances to keep this game within two touchdowns, but the loss took a lot of wind out of their sails. Oregon jumps out to an early lead, forcing the Beavers and quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei to throw the football more than they’d like to.
Oregon 45, Oregon State 21
Kentucky v. No. 10 Louisville (-6.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Last week Louisville was able to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship Game with their 38-31 win over Miami. In the grand scheme of things, this week’s game doesn’t mean much. Sure, the Cardinals would love to beat their in-state rival in Jeff Brohm’s first year as head coach. A loss to the Wildcats wouldn’t be the end of the world, though. Plus, Louisville saw their chances of winning an ACC Championship increase last week after Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a devastating leg injury.
After a 5-0 start to the season, the Kentucky train has derailed, as the Wildcats have lost five of their last six games. Even if Kentucky loses this game at least they have already secured the six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. What the Wildcats need to do in this game is get back to running the football, since running back Ray Davis has been very quiet over the last six games.
Kentucky feels like they are catching Louisville at the right time here. Even though this is a rivalry game, I could see Jeff Brohm not putting quite as much into this game since he knows how much next week’s game against Florida State will mean. Even if the Cardinals win, it feels like it will be by less than a touchdown.
Kentucky 24, Louisville 20
Texas A&M v. No. 14 LSU (-11.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Now that LSU is out of the SEC Championship Game picture, it’s quite obvious Brian Kelly just wants quarterback Jayden Daniels to put up some huge numbers to possibly earn a spot in New York City in a couple weeks as a Heisman Trophy finalist. Last week in the fourth quarter with LSU up 49-14 on Georgia State, Daniels was still in there slinging it. I doubt Daniels would have still been out there at that point if LSU was still in contention for the SEC title or a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Following their 51-10 win over Mississippi State a couple weeks ago, Texas A&M shocked everyone by firing head coach Jimbo Fisher, agreeing to pay the $75 million dollar buyout on Fisher’s contract. There is still this game left, as well as a bowl game, but I’m not expecting a lot from the Aggies in those games. Sure, they’ll play loose football, I just don’t know if they’ll end up playing sound football.
Texas A&M will put some points on the board against a poor LSU defense, it just won’t be enough to threaten LSU, who will want Daniels to put up some more monster numbers in their final regular season game. The Tigers should win this by at least two touchdowns.
LSU 48, Texas A&M 28
No. 8 Alabama (-14.5) v. Auburn - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS
Auburn just lost by 21 points to human gopher Jerry Kill and New Mexico State. Do you really think the Tigers have what it takes to stay within the spread against an Alabama team that has figured things out after a shaky start to the season? After pretty much leaving the Crimson Tide for dead after their loss to Texas, Alabama is heading to the SEC Championship Game next week, and a win over Georgia would see them head to another College Football Playoff.
Even though stranger things have happened in sports, it’s almost impossible to see Auburn keeping this game close. Hugh Freeze hasn’t brought in enough talent yet to challenge the Crimson Tide. Things will likely be different in a couple years, but right now signs are pointing to Alabama destroying Auburn on Saturday afternoon.
Alabama 37, Auburn 13
Washington State v. No. 4 Washington (-16.5) - 4:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Think back to the last time Washington won a football game by at least 17 points. It was all the way back in September when they beat Cal 59-32. Since then the biggest margin of victory for the Huskies was a 10-point win over USC. Some of the Washington wins during that span have had a bit of a Tresselball feel to them, especially last week’s 22-20 victory in rainy Corvallis over Oregon State.
Last week Washington State humbled Colorado 56-14 in Pullman. Unfortunately for Washington State, it’s unlikely they’ll be bowling this year since they enter this game with just five wins on the season. Expect the Cougars to put everything they have into this game, since not only do they have a chance to spoil Washington’s perfect season, it will be their last game against their in-state rival before Washington heads to the Big Ten.
Washington State has nothing to lose in this game, while Washington has everything to lose. The Huskies are heading to the Pac-12 Championship Game next week, so they’ll likely be happy with a win here, it doesn’t have to be some huge blowout. With Washington’s habit of playing close games lately, it’s hard to see them winning by more than 17 points here. Washington State quarterback Cam Ward makes enough plays to keep the margin of victory for Washington at two touchdowns or less.
Washington 35, Washington State 24
No. 1 Georgia (-24.5) v. Georgia Tech - 7:30 p.m. ET - ABC
The Bulldogs have won “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” by at least 23 points in each of their last five meetings with the Yellow Jackets. Even though Georgia Tech has been better this year than they have been over the last few years, Georgia is still miles ahead of their in-state foe. The Bulldogs are nearing full strength after Brock Bowers returned a couple weeks ago after missing a few weeks because of surgery. Kirby Smart will want his team to go into next week’s matchup against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game with confidence. An easy win to do just that is by tuning up one of your rivals.
Georgia 49, Georgia Tech 17
Continue reading...
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Outside of the Big Ten, there are a number of games with huge implications.
Last week ATS: 9-6 (5-3 National, 4-3 B1G)
Season ATS: 98-93-1 (45-54-1 National, 53-39 B1G)
Happy Thanksgiving to all! Hopefully over the next few days we’ll stuff ourselves with copious amounts of delicious food to go along with these winning picks. There is some great games spread over the next few days, so enjoy the last week of the regular season before the conference championship games next week,
National games
No. 9 Missouri (-7.5) v. Arkansas - Friday 4:00 p.m. ET - CBS
Last week’s game against Florida wasn’t the prettiest game for Missouri, but all that matters is the Tigers earned the victory over the Gators. With the win, Missouri kept their hopes for a New Year’s Six bowl bid alive. It was a group effort on Saturday night for the offense of the Tigers. Brady Cook threw for over 300 yards, Luther Burden hauled in nine passes for 158 yards, while Cody Schrader rushed for 148 yards and a touchdown in the victory.
This year will be one to forget for Arkansas. The Razorbacks enter Friday’s game with a 4-7 record, falling well short of expectations heading into the season. The only win for Sam Pittman’s team in SEC play this year was a 39-36 victory over Florida in overtime a few weeks ago. The problem for Arkansas this year is quarterback KJ Jefferson hasn’t gotten much help on the offensive end, and since the Razorbacks have had trouble moving the football, it has put more pressure on the defense.
There’s no question Missouri is the better team right now. It’s not like Arkansas has to play hard for head coach Sam Pittman, since the athletic department already announced Pittman would return for the 2024 season. Missouri will be looking for their 10th win of the season while the Razorbacks will be looking forward to their season finally ending.
Missouri 38, Arkansas 17
Texas Tech v. No. 7 Texas (-12.5) - Friday 7:30 p.m. ET - ABC
This isn’t the Texas Tech team we have become accustomed to over the years. The Red Raiders actually prefer to run the football over throwing it. Tahj Brooks has rushed for 1,352 yards and nine touchdowns this year. Just how much is Texas Tech running the football? They actually have 18 more rushing attempts than passing attempts through the first 11 games of the season.
Texas is certainly going to need some help if they are going to make the College Football Playoff this year. Even if the Longhorns don’t earn a spot in the playoff, at least they still have a chance to win the Big 12 crown in their final year in the conference. Currently Texas controls their own destiny when it comes to earning a spot in next week’s Big 12 Championship Game. Last week the Longhorns earned a gritty 26-16 win over Iowa State in Ames.
Texas Tech has found something lately with their running game, as they enter this contest on a three-game winning streak. Texas has dealt with a lot this season. The loss to Oklahoma, an injury to Quinn Ewers that cost him a couple games, and the season-ending knee injury to running back Jonathon Brooks. 12.5 points feels like a few too many points to lay with a Texas team that has won four of their last five games by 10 points or less. The Red Raiders shorten the game by keeping it on the ground, putting a bit of a scare into Texas in their final meeting as conference foes.
Texas 28, Texas Tech 24
No. 16 Oregon State v. No. 6 Oregon (-13.5) - Friday 8:30 p.m. ET - FOX
Last week felt like Oregon State’s Super Bowl. Had the Beavers been able to beat Washington, not only would they have thrown a wrench into the playoff hopes of the Huskies, they would have also put themselves in position to make the Pac-12 Championship Game. Not that the Beavers won’t be hyped for Friday night’s final conference game against their in-state rivals, there just isn’t as much juice flowing as there could have been if they had defeated Washington.
Right now Oregon is playing like the best team in the country. The Ducks left no doubt last week against Arizona State, with Bo Nix throwing six touchdowns in the first half of the blowout of the Sun Devils in Tempe. For as many weapons as Oregon State had to deal with last week against Washington, they’ll have even more on their plate this week when they travel to Eugene to take on the Ducks.
There is a lot going on in this matchup. Not only will Oregon be looking to state their case as a playoff contender, they’ll be trying to make the Pac-12 Championship Game, along with avenging last year’s loss to Oregon State. Maybe if the Beavers had won last week I’d like their chances to keep this game within two touchdowns, but the loss took a lot of wind out of their sails. Oregon jumps out to an early lead, forcing the Beavers and quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei to throw the football more than they’d like to.
Oregon 45, Oregon State 21
Kentucky v. No. 10 Louisville (-6.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Last week Louisville was able to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship Game with their 38-31 win over Miami. In the grand scheme of things, this week’s game doesn’t mean much. Sure, the Cardinals would love to beat their in-state rival in Jeff Brohm’s first year as head coach. A loss to the Wildcats wouldn’t be the end of the world, though. Plus, Louisville saw their chances of winning an ACC Championship increase last week after Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a devastating leg injury.
After a 5-0 start to the season, the Kentucky train has derailed, as the Wildcats have lost five of their last six games. Even if Kentucky loses this game at least they have already secured the six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. What the Wildcats need to do in this game is get back to running the football, since running back Ray Davis has been very quiet over the last six games.
Kentucky feels like they are catching Louisville at the right time here. Even though this is a rivalry game, I could see Jeff Brohm not putting quite as much into this game since he knows how much next week’s game against Florida State will mean. Even if the Cardinals win, it feels like it will be by less than a touchdown.
Kentucky 24, Louisville 20
Texas A&M v. No. 14 LSU (-11.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Now that LSU is out of the SEC Championship Game picture, it’s quite obvious Brian Kelly just wants quarterback Jayden Daniels to put up some huge numbers to possibly earn a spot in New York City in a couple weeks as a Heisman Trophy finalist. Last week in the fourth quarter with LSU up 49-14 on Georgia State, Daniels was still in there slinging it. I doubt Daniels would have still been out there at that point if LSU was still in contention for the SEC title or a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Following their 51-10 win over Mississippi State a couple weeks ago, Texas A&M shocked everyone by firing head coach Jimbo Fisher, agreeing to pay the $75 million dollar buyout on Fisher’s contract. There is still this game left, as well as a bowl game, but I’m not expecting a lot from the Aggies in those games. Sure, they’ll play loose football, I just don’t know if they’ll end up playing sound football.
Texas A&M will put some points on the board against a poor LSU defense, it just won’t be enough to threaten LSU, who will want Daniels to put up some more monster numbers in their final regular season game. The Tigers should win this by at least two touchdowns.
LSU 48, Texas A&M 28
No. 8 Alabama (-14.5) v. Auburn - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS
Auburn just lost by 21 points to human gopher Jerry Kill and New Mexico State. Do you really think the Tigers have what it takes to stay within the spread against an Alabama team that has figured things out after a shaky start to the season? After pretty much leaving the Crimson Tide for dead after their loss to Texas, Alabama is heading to the SEC Championship Game next week, and a win over Georgia would see them head to another College Football Playoff.
Even though stranger things have happened in sports, it’s almost impossible to see Auburn keeping this game close. Hugh Freeze hasn’t brought in enough talent yet to challenge the Crimson Tide. Things will likely be different in a couple years, but right now signs are pointing to Alabama destroying Auburn on Saturday afternoon.
Alabama 37, Auburn 13
Washington State v. No. 4 Washington (-16.5) - 4:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Think back to the last time Washington won a football game by at least 17 points. It was all the way back in September when they beat Cal 59-32. Since then the biggest margin of victory for the Huskies was a 10-point win over USC. Some of the Washington wins during that span have had a bit of a Tresselball feel to them, especially last week’s 22-20 victory in rainy Corvallis over Oregon State.
Last week Washington State humbled Colorado 56-14 in Pullman. Unfortunately for Washington State, it’s unlikely they’ll be bowling this year since they enter this game with just five wins on the season. Expect the Cougars to put everything they have into this game, since not only do they have a chance to spoil Washington’s perfect season, it will be their last game against their in-state rival before Washington heads to the Big Ten.
Washington State has nothing to lose in this game, while Washington has everything to lose. The Huskies are heading to the Pac-12 Championship Game next week, so they’ll likely be happy with a win here, it doesn’t have to be some huge blowout. With Washington’s habit of playing close games lately, it’s hard to see them winning by more than 17 points here. Washington State quarterback Cam Ward makes enough plays to keep the margin of victory for Washington at two touchdowns or less.
Washington 35, Washington State 24
No. 1 Georgia (-24.5) v. Georgia Tech - 7:30 p.m. ET - ABC
The Bulldogs have won “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” by at least 23 points in each of their last five meetings with the Yellow Jackets. Even though Georgia Tech has been better this year than they have been over the last few years, Georgia is still miles ahead of their in-state foe. The Bulldogs are nearing full strength after Brock Bowers returned a couple weeks ago after missing a few weeks because of surgery. Kirby Smart will want his team to go into next week’s matchup against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game with confidence. An easy win to do just that is by tuning up one of your rivals.
Georgia 49, Georgia Tech 17
Continue reading...