Brett Ludwiczak
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MC&J: Ohio State-Michigan is the star of Week 13 in the Big Ten
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
All eyes will be on The Game on Saturday afternoon in the final week of the Big Ten regular season
My picks for Oregon State-Oregon, Washington State-Washington, and six other interesting national games can be found here.
No. 17 Iowa v. Nebraska (-2.5) - Friday 12:00 p.m. ET - CBS
It’s incredible that for as bad as Iowa has been offensively this year they have won nine games and will be representing the West in the Big Ten Championship Game next Saturday. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 24 points in just three games this year, with the last of those occurrences coming at the end of September against Michigan State. To be as successful as Iowa has been with no offense just tells you how good their defense and special teams has been.
Nebraska has been just as dreadful on offense as Iowa has this season. Much like the Hawkeyes, the Cornhuskers have reached 24 points in just three games this season. After a 5-3 start to the season, Nebraska has fallen flat, losing their last three games, putting their dreams of making a bowl game in Matt Rhule’s first season in Lincoln in serious jeopardy. Last week in the 24-17 overtime loss to Wisconsin, the Cornhuskers turned to Chubba Purdy at quarterback.
In a game where the offenses aren’t going to have much success, I’ll take the points and the team that has experience winning tight games. Nebraska has made losing one-score games an art-form over the last few years. This year four of their six losses have been by seven points or less. Iowa gets some revenge for last year when the Cornhuskers snapped a seven-game losing streak in the rivalry.
Iowa 17, Nebraska 10
No. 11 Penn State (-21.5) v. Michigan State - Friday 7:30 p.m. ET - NBC
I would say this game feels so weird being played at Ford Field in Detroit, but it’s not like Michigan State has much of a home-field advantage this year. Plus, at least this way they won’t have a chance to put anything embarrassing up on their scoreboard before the game. Still, college football regular season games played at NFL stadiums sucks all the fun out of the game.
Penn State enters this game with some uncertainty when it comes to quarterback Drew Allar. While it sounds like Allar is going to play on Friday, it’s obvious the first-year starter isn’t anywhere close to 100 percent. Last week against Rutgers, Allar and Beau Pribula combined to throw for just 88 yards in the 27-6 win. Luckily the Nittany Lions have running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton to lean on.
Even though Penn State is great at beating up on bad teams, Michigan State does come into this game with a little confidence after beating Indiana last week. We should see a spirited effort from the Spartans since this will be their final game of the season, while Penn State still has a bowl game to prepare for. The Nittany Lions keep things pretty vanilla as they try and earn the win while not accumulating any more injuries ahead of their bowl game.
Penn State 28, Michigan State 13
Indiana v. Purdue (-3.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Unless you’re an alum of either of these schools, or a true degenerate gambler, there really is no reason to watch this game. Honestly, they shouldn’t even award the Old Oaken Bucket this year since both of these teams have been awful, with both entering Saturday’s game with 3-8 records.
Indiana at least has been somewhat competitive recently, losing their last two games by a combined six points. Purdue lost 23-15 to Northwestern last week after somehow beating Minnesota a few weeks ago. While the future of Indiana head coach Tom Allen is uncertain, at least for Ryan Walters it is his first year at Purdue, so he’ll get some time to show some positive results before his seat starts to get hot.
I can’t say I’m totally comfortable with backing Purdue here, but I do at least feel a little more confident taking the Boilermakers than I would if I picked the Hoosiers. Purdue has at least found their running game recently, rushing for over 300 yards in each of their last two contests. Devin Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy Jr. help the Boilers control the clock, wear out the Indiana defense, and eventually it will open things up for Hudson Card to make a couple throws to lead Purdue to victory.
Purdue 27, Indiana 17
Northwestern v. Illinois (-5.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Northwestern undoubtedly is one of the most improved teams in the country from the start of the season. In early October the Wildcats barely beat Howard, and now they’re bowl eligible and head coach David Braun had the interim tag removed from his job title because of how well Northwestern has been playing under him. Last week the Wildcats beat Purdue 23-15 to secure bowl eligibility a year after going 1-11.
On the other side, a year after playing in a January bowl game, Illinois needs a win this week just to become bowl eligible. Last week the Fighting Illini fell to Iowa 15-13. John Paddock again started at quarterback for Illinois, and it’s likely to see him behind center again since he has started the last two games and has played pretty well.
Taking the points in this game is very attractive since each of the last five games for Illinois have been decided by four points or less. Northwestern is playing with a lot of confidence, while the Fighting Illini could be pressing in this game because they know this is their last chance to become bowl eligible. I just like how the Wildcats are playing right now, so I’ll side with them to deny their in-state foe.
Northwestern 24, Illinois 20
Wisconsin (-1.5) v. Minnesota - 3:30 p.m. ET - FS1
The Badgers avoided Luke Fickell’s first year in Madison being a total failure by beating Nebraska 24-17 in overtime last week to become bowl eligible. Don’t get it twisted, the first season for Fickell as the head coach of the Badgers has been disappointing. Injuries haven’t helped Fickell’s cause, as both quarterback Tanner Mordecai and running back Braelon Allen have missed time because of injuries.
Last week we saw just how basic Minnesota is. The Golden Gophers can’t really throw the football, and their running game isn’t nearly as prolific as it has been in the previous few years. After being just a win away from bowl eligibility, Minnesota has now lost three straight games. Along with the losing streak, their latest loss came to Ohio State, and we know there can be a hangover after being run over by the Buckeyes.
I think Wisconsin builds off their win last week. Mordecai is back at quarterback, so the Badgers can at least throw the football a little to take some of the pressure off of Allen and the running game. Plus, I think Fickell is a better coach than P.J. Fleck, so give me the better all-around team that has a better coach.
Wisconsin 23, Minnesota 13
Maryland (-1.5) v. Rutgers - 3:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Neither of these teams enter this game with much confidence. Rutgers has lost three straight games, while Maryland has dropped five of six after a 5-0 start to the season. At least the Terrapins show bit of fight last week in their 31-24 loss to Michigan. The same can’t be said for the Scarlet Knights, who were rolled 27-6 by Penn State. Each of the three straight losses for Rutgers have come by at least 19 points.
We know Maryland does have some weapons of offense with Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback. The same can’t be said for Rutgers. Who do the Scarlet Knights turn to when they need someone to make a play on offense? Nobody really comes to mind, which is why Rutgers relies so heavily on trick plays. With a short line, I feel a lot more comfortable taking the Terrapins here. While Tagovailoa hasn’t announced otherwise, who would blame him if he skipped Maryland’s bowl game this year to prepare for the NFL Draft? If that ends up being the case, expect to see him make some plays in his final game at Maryland.
Maryland 27, Rutgers 14
No. 2 Ohio State v. No. 3 Michigan (-3.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX
We have finally made it to the most anticipated game on this year’s schedule. As if there wasn’t already enough hate between the rivals, the vitriol has been ratcheted up following the Michigan sign stealing scandal. Now we wonder how much Connor Stalions had to do with the last two years, which were Michigan victories after a decade of domination by Ohio State.
The punishment for Michigan by the Big Ten was the suspension of head coach Jim Harbaugh for three games, with the last of those games being Saturday’s contest. The formula under interim head coach Sherrone Moore has been simple: jump out to a lead and then plod along and don’t blow it. The Wolverines have been so successful at this because of their ability to run the football.
One good thing for Ohio State heading into this game is Michigan isn’t quite as dominant on either line. While Michigan has been able to run the football on all their previous opponents this year, they certainly haven’t had to line up against a defense as good as what they’ll see from the Buckeyes. Ohio State hasn’t given up more than 17 points in a game this year, and they have been stout against the run.
If Michigan can’t run the football, it will force the Wolverines to put the football in J.J. McCarthy’s hands more. That strategy worked last year against Ohio State, who was burnt for a number of huge passing touchdowns in the game in Columbus. Jim Knowles has transformed the defense this year, and the Buckeyes have only given up one play of more than 40 yards, and that was on a “fumblerooski” on fourth down against Rutgers.
Ohio State doesn’t have a C.J. Stroud or Justin Fields at quarterback this year. Kyle McCord has gained more confidence throughout the season, though. McCord already has played in a hostile environment went the Buckeyes went to Notre Dame at the end of September. It also helps that he has TreVeyon Henderson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Cade Stover lining up with him on offense.
Rent will be due on Saturday in Ann Arbor. Honestly, I wish Jim Harbaugh was on the sidelines since I don’t want there to be any excuse when the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines. Of course this is a homer pick, but I also think Ohio State is a better team. The Buckeyes not only have more talent on both sides of the football, they are the most tested team. Ohio State returns to the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff by beating Michigan in The Game.
Ohio State 24, Michigan 17
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
All eyes will be on The Game on Saturday afternoon in the final week of the Big Ten regular season
Last week ATS: 9-6 (5-3 National, 4-3 B1G)
Season ATS: 98-93-1 (45-54-1 National, 53-39 B1G)
My picks for Oregon State-Oregon, Washington State-Washington, and six other interesting national games can be found here.
B1G games
No. 17 Iowa v. Nebraska (-2.5) - Friday 12:00 p.m. ET - CBS
It’s incredible that for as bad as Iowa has been offensively this year they have won nine games and will be representing the West in the Big Ten Championship Game next Saturday. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 24 points in just three games this year, with the last of those occurrences coming at the end of September against Michigan State. To be as successful as Iowa has been with no offense just tells you how good their defense and special teams has been.
Nebraska has been just as dreadful on offense as Iowa has this season. Much like the Hawkeyes, the Cornhuskers have reached 24 points in just three games this season. After a 5-3 start to the season, Nebraska has fallen flat, losing their last three games, putting their dreams of making a bowl game in Matt Rhule’s first season in Lincoln in serious jeopardy. Last week in the 24-17 overtime loss to Wisconsin, the Cornhuskers turned to Chubba Purdy at quarterback.
In a game where the offenses aren’t going to have much success, I’ll take the points and the team that has experience winning tight games. Nebraska has made losing one-score games an art-form over the last few years. This year four of their six losses have been by seven points or less. Iowa gets some revenge for last year when the Cornhuskers snapped a seven-game losing streak in the rivalry.
Iowa 17, Nebraska 10
No. 11 Penn State (-21.5) v. Michigan State - Friday 7:30 p.m. ET - NBC
I would say this game feels so weird being played at Ford Field in Detroit, but it’s not like Michigan State has much of a home-field advantage this year. Plus, at least this way they won’t have a chance to put anything embarrassing up on their scoreboard before the game. Still, college football regular season games played at NFL stadiums sucks all the fun out of the game.
Penn State enters this game with some uncertainty when it comes to quarterback Drew Allar. While it sounds like Allar is going to play on Friday, it’s obvious the first-year starter isn’t anywhere close to 100 percent. Last week against Rutgers, Allar and Beau Pribula combined to throw for just 88 yards in the 27-6 win. Luckily the Nittany Lions have running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton to lean on.
Even though Penn State is great at beating up on bad teams, Michigan State does come into this game with a little confidence after beating Indiana last week. We should see a spirited effort from the Spartans since this will be their final game of the season, while Penn State still has a bowl game to prepare for. The Nittany Lions keep things pretty vanilla as they try and earn the win while not accumulating any more injuries ahead of their bowl game.
Penn State 28, Michigan State 13
Indiana v. Purdue (-3.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Unless you’re an alum of either of these schools, or a true degenerate gambler, there really is no reason to watch this game. Honestly, they shouldn’t even award the Old Oaken Bucket this year since both of these teams have been awful, with both entering Saturday’s game with 3-8 records.
Indiana at least has been somewhat competitive recently, losing their last two games by a combined six points. Purdue lost 23-15 to Northwestern last week after somehow beating Minnesota a few weeks ago. While the future of Indiana head coach Tom Allen is uncertain, at least for Ryan Walters it is his first year at Purdue, so he’ll get some time to show some positive results before his seat starts to get hot.
I can’t say I’m totally comfortable with backing Purdue here, but I do at least feel a little more confident taking the Boilermakers than I would if I picked the Hoosiers. Purdue has at least found their running game recently, rushing for over 300 yards in each of their last two contests. Devin Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy Jr. help the Boilers control the clock, wear out the Indiana defense, and eventually it will open things up for Hudson Card to make a couple throws to lead Purdue to victory.
Purdue 27, Indiana 17
Northwestern v. Illinois (-5.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Northwestern undoubtedly is one of the most improved teams in the country from the start of the season. In early October the Wildcats barely beat Howard, and now they’re bowl eligible and head coach David Braun had the interim tag removed from his job title because of how well Northwestern has been playing under him. Last week the Wildcats beat Purdue 23-15 to secure bowl eligibility a year after going 1-11.
On the other side, a year after playing in a January bowl game, Illinois needs a win this week just to become bowl eligible. Last week the Fighting Illini fell to Iowa 15-13. John Paddock again started at quarterback for Illinois, and it’s likely to see him behind center again since he has started the last two games and has played pretty well.
Taking the points in this game is very attractive since each of the last five games for Illinois have been decided by four points or less. Northwestern is playing with a lot of confidence, while the Fighting Illini could be pressing in this game because they know this is their last chance to become bowl eligible. I just like how the Wildcats are playing right now, so I’ll side with them to deny their in-state foe.
Northwestern 24, Illinois 20
Wisconsin (-1.5) v. Minnesota - 3:30 p.m. ET - FS1
The Badgers avoided Luke Fickell’s first year in Madison being a total failure by beating Nebraska 24-17 in overtime last week to become bowl eligible. Don’t get it twisted, the first season for Fickell as the head coach of the Badgers has been disappointing. Injuries haven’t helped Fickell’s cause, as both quarterback Tanner Mordecai and running back Braelon Allen have missed time because of injuries.
Last week we saw just how basic Minnesota is. The Golden Gophers can’t really throw the football, and their running game isn’t nearly as prolific as it has been in the previous few years. After being just a win away from bowl eligibility, Minnesota has now lost three straight games. Along with the losing streak, their latest loss came to Ohio State, and we know there can be a hangover after being run over by the Buckeyes.
I think Wisconsin builds off their win last week. Mordecai is back at quarterback, so the Badgers can at least throw the football a little to take some of the pressure off of Allen and the running game. Plus, I think Fickell is a better coach than P.J. Fleck, so give me the better all-around team that has a better coach.
Wisconsin 23, Minnesota 13
Maryland (-1.5) v. Rutgers - 3:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Neither of these teams enter this game with much confidence. Rutgers has lost three straight games, while Maryland has dropped five of six after a 5-0 start to the season. At least the Terrapins show bit of fight last week in their 31-24 loss to Michigan. The same can’t be said for the Scarlet Knights, who were rolled 27-6 by Penn State. Each of the three straight losses for Rutgers have come by at least 19 points.
We know Maryland does have some weapons of offense with Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback. The same can’t be said for Rutgers. Who do the Scarlet Knights turn to when they need someone to make a play on offense? Nobody really comes to mind, which is why Rutgers relies so heavily on trick plays. With a short line, I feel a lot more comfortable taking the Terrapins here. While Tagovailoa hasn’t announced otherwise, who would blame him if he skipped Maryland’s bowl game this year to prepare for the NFL Draft? If that ends up being the case, expect to see him make some plays in his final game at Maryland.
Maryland 27, Rutgers 14
No. 2 Ohio State v. No. 3 Michigan (-3.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX
We have finally made it to the most anticipated game on this year’s schedule. As if there wasn’t already enough hate between the rivals, the vitriol has been ratcheted up following the Michigan sign stealing scandal. Now we wonder how much Connor Stalions had to do with the last two years, which were Michigan victories after a decade of domination by Ohio State.
The punishment for Michigan by the Big Ten was the suspension of head coach Jim Harbaugh for three games, with the last of those games being Saturday’s contest. The formula under interim head coach Sherrone Moore has been simple: jump out to a lead and then plod along and don’t blow it. The Wolverines have been so successful at this because of their ability to run the football.
One good thing for Ohio State heading into this game is Michigan isn’t quite as dominant on either line. While Michigan has been able to run the football on all their previous opponents this year, they certainly haven’t had to line up against a defense as good as what they’ll see from the Buckeyes. Ohio State hasn’t given up more than 17 points in a game this year, and they have been stout against the run.
If Michigan can’t run the football, it will force the Wolverines to put the football in J.J. McCarthy’s hands more. That strategy worked last year against Ohio State, who was burnt for a number of huge passing touchdowns in the game in Columbus. Jim Knowles has transformed the defense this year, and the Buckeyes have only given up one play of more than 40 yards, and that was on a “fumblerooski” on fourth down against Rutgers.
Ohio State doesn’t have a C.J. Stroud or Justin Fields at quarterback this year. Kyle McCord has gained more confidence throughout the season, though. McCord already has played in a hostile environment went the Buckeyes went to Notre Dame at the end of September. It also helps that he has TreVeyon Henderson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Cade Stover lining up with him on offense.
Rent will be due on Saturday in Ann Arbor. Honestly, I wish Jim Harbaugh was on the sidelines since I don’t want there to be any excuse when the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines. Of course this is a homer pick, but I also think Ohio State is a better team. The Buckeyes not only have more talent on both sides of the football, they are the most tested team. Ohio State returns to the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff by beating Michigan in The Game.
Ohio State 24, Michigan 17
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