Brett Ludwiczak
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MC&J: Ohio State is nearly three-touchdown favorites over Iowa in Week 6 Big Ten action
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Plus picks against the spread for the rest of this week’s games around the conference.
Last week ATS: 6-9 (2-5 National, 4-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 48-47 (15-17 National, 33-30 B1G)
Last week certainly had some frustrating results. Michigan fell apart in the fourth quarter to lose the cover, Louisville and Arkansas narrowly missed covering on Saturday afternoon, while Auburn couldn’t finish off Oklahoma.
Our record would look a lot better had we had a little more luck in those games. I guess that’s why they call it gambling!
Michigan State v. No. 6 Oregon (-24.5) - Friday 9:00 p.m. ET - FOX
The schedule makers certainly didn’t do Michigan State any favors in this spot. The Spartans are coming off a 38-7 loss to Ohio State on Saturday night, and now have to travel out to Eugene on a short week to take on the Ducks. Right now the only thing going for Michigan State is head coach Jonathan Smith has a lot of familiarity with going to Autzen Stadium from his time at Oregon State.
Oregon has finally started to look like the team we expected them to be prior to the season. After struggling with Idaho and Boise State, the Ducks had no problems with Oregon State and UCLA. About the only thing Oregon can be criticized about in their last two games is not covering against the Bruins last week. Just imagine what Dillon Gabriel is going to be able to do to the Michigan State defense after seeing how much success Will Howard had on Saturday night.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25655378/2175504064.jpg "Oregon v UCLA")
Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images
We have seen countless times how much a game against Ohio State takes out of teams the next week. Now Michigan State not only has to deal with all those body blows from Saturday night, they have to travel across the country to take on a talented Oregon team that will be hosting their first-ever Big Ten game.
The Spartans are way too sloppy with the football to stay inside the spread.
Oregon 45, Michigan State 17
UCLA v. No. 7 Penn State (-27.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX
After missing on Penn State’s opener against West Virginia, I somehow have navigated the last three games for the Nittany Lions, correctly predicting they’d cover against Kent State, while siding with Bowling Green and Illinois in the other two contests.
Something still doesn’t feel quite right about the offense of the Nittany Lions, though. It looked like in the opener we’d see Drew Allar air out things more in new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s offense, but that really hasn’t been the case over the last few games.
UCLA is a mess right now. At least for new head coach Deshaun Foster, his team is playing hard. The Bruins didn’t get completely blown off the field against LSU and Oregon. Aside from effort, not much else is going right for UCLA. They have no running game and Ethan Garbers has struggled at quarterback, which is surprising since the Bruins have a couple receivers who played pretty well last year. Since the offense hasn’t been able to sustain drives, it has put more pressure on the defense.
UCLA has already gone to a tough environment and covered this year, squeezing inside the number against LSU a couple weeks ago. This trip to State College is going to be a lot different, especially since it starts at noon in the eastern time zone. Penn State has more to offer on defense than LSU did, so it is going to be extremely challenging for the Bruins to put points on the scoreboard.
I think the Nittany Lions blow out UCLA to send a message to USC, who they take on in Los Angeles next Saturday.
Penn State 44, UCLA 13
Purdue v. Wisconsin (-13.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Wisconsin really needs to channel Barry Alvarez and Bret Bielema in this game. If the Badgers don’t run the football at least 40 times, Luke Fickell should fire offensive coordinator Phil Longo on the spot. The running game was working against USC and then for some reason Wisconsin decided the best strategy after halftime would be to abandon what was working. USC outscored the Badgers 28-0 in the second half.
How bad are things in West Lafayette? Following last week’s 28-10 loss to Nebraska, head coach Ryan Walters got rid of offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. Opponents have had a lot of success running the football against the Boilermakers, which is another reason why Wisconsin should give Chez Mellusi and Tawee Walker plenty of carries on Saturday afternoon.
Laying nearly two touchdowns with Wisconsin is pretty scary, but it feels like the right play since the Boilermakers haven’t been competitive in any of their three games against FBS foes this year. At least with the Badgers there feels like more of a path to right the ship a bit, where Purdue is lost at sea.
Wisconsin 31, Purdue 14
No. 23 Indiana (-13.5) v. Northwestern - 3:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Apparently I haven’t learned my lesson when it comes to Indiana football, since I have backed the opponents of the Hoosiers to cover in each of the last three games. Maybe Curt Cignetti is printing on my picks and reading them to his team to fire them up before games. Kurtis Rourke had some rough moments early in last week’s game against Maryland, throwing his first two interceptions of the season in the first half of the 42-28 win. The Ohio transfer has thrown for at least 250 yards in each of the last four games.
Northwestern is a really tough watch. Take away their 31-7 win over Eastern Illinois and the Wildcats haven’t scored more than 20 points in their three games against FBS foes this year. Even when they scored 20 points against Duke, that was a game that went to double overtime. I have no idea how they are going to keep pace with an Indiana offense that has scored at least 31 points in every game this season, and at least 40 points in their last four contests.
The Hoosiers continue the fairly tale start to the Cignetti Era in Bloomington with an easy win over Northwestern in the temporary stadium on the shores of Lake Michigan that holds like seven people.
Indiana 38, Northwestern 10
Rutgers v. Nebraska (-6.5) - 4:00 p.m. ET - FS1
Nebraska was able to rebound from their overtime loss to Illinois by pulling away from Purdue in the second half in West Lafayette last week. Quarterback Dylan Raiola is playing more like an upperclassman and not a freshman, throwing for over 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns over his first five games with the Cornhuskers. The Nebraska defense has also been really good, allowing 10 points or less in four games so far this season.
Not only is Indiana undefeated so far this season, Rutgers enters this game at 4-0. Last week the Scarlet Knights grinded out a 21-18 win over Washington. The formula for Greg Schiano’s team is to wear down defenses with their running game, have Athan Kaliakmanis make some smart throws, and then rely on your defense to close out games. Kyle Monangai has been one of the best running backs in the country so far this year, but he will be facing his toughest test of the season so far on Saturday afternoon.
I still don’t fully trust Nebraska. This has the feel of a game where Schiano is going to throw some looks at Raiola that will confuse him. The Cornhuskers have been cruising in games where they have built a sizable lead. I don’t think Nebraska is going to run away with this game, and we have all seen how they crumble in one-score contests.
Rutgers 24, Nebraska 20
No. 10 Michigan v. Washington (-2.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - NBC
We have a rematch of last year’s title game where pretty much nobody of note from either side is back. That’s not technically true since the Wolverines still have Donovan Edwards, who must be a victim of the video game cover curse since he is only averaging 4.4 yards per carry so far this season and has taken a backseat to Kalel Mullings in the backfield.
Quarterback Alex Orji will be making his third start of the season, and is still looking for his first game with at least 100 yards passing.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25655379/2175317265.jpg "Minnesota v Michigan")
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
It feels like Washington is still trying to figure out who they are in Jedd Fisch’s first year as head coach. The Huskies have a solid defense, they just have sputtered on offense recently, scoring less than 20 points in two of their last three games, losing both of those contests. Washington is going to need quarterback Will Rogers to make some smart decisions since the Wolverines are led by their defense.
After starting the season with five games in Ann Arbor, now Michigan has to go a long way on their first road trip of the season. If Washington can shut down the run, they should be able to beat the Wolverines since we all have seen that Alex Orji can’t throw the football. The Huskies get some revenge for losing to Michigan in January.
Washington 21, Michigan 17
No. 11 USC (-8.5) v. Minnesota - 7:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Lincoln Riley and the Trojans probably won’t even know where they are by the end of the week. After playing in their first Big Ten game a couple weeks ago in Ann Arbor, USC was back in Los Angeles last week to take on Wisconsin, and now they’ll be heading to Minneapolis to take on the Golden Gophers. At least USC should be happy this game isn’t a month later since we all know how suspect the weather in Minneapolis can be as the season moves along.
Minnesota did show a little life in the fourth quarter against Michigan, scoring 21 points to keep the Wolverines from covering. The Golden Gophers still are having a tough time running the football, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this year. When Minnesota has been good under Fleck, they use the run to set up the pass. They haven’t been able to do that this year, which is why their only wins have come against Rhode Island and Nevada.
I can’t say I’m a fan of either coach in this game. What I do like is how the defense of the Trojans has played since D’Anton Lynn took over as defensive coordinator. USC has the ability to jump out to a lead over Minnesota, making the Golden Gophers throw the football, which they haven’t looked all that comfortable doing with Max Brosmer behind center.
USC 34, Minnesota 20
Iowa v. No. 3 Ohio State (-19.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS
Ohio State was able to easily navigate their first road game of the season, defeating Michigan State 38-7 on Saturday night. All the talk following the win was about wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, with the true freshman receiver making two insane one-handed catches on the same drive late in the first half.
With how well Will Howard was slinging the football against the Spartans, the Buckeyes didn’t really need more from Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. The duo will be trying to find holes this week against a Iowa rush defense that hasn’t allowed over 100 yards on the ground this season.
Imagine if Iowa had gotten rid of Brian Ferentz sooner. The offense of the Hawkeyes has been solid in the first four games under offensive coordinator Tim Lester. The star of the offense has been running back Kaleb Johnson, who has ran for at least 100 yards in every Iowa game so far this season. Had the Hawkeyes not blown a second half lead at home to Iowa State, this would be a matchup of undefeated teams.
Iowa does a few things well on both sides of the football. Ohio State is great at pretty much everything. Honestly, it feels like we haven’t even had the full Chip Kelly experience on offense yet since the new Buckeye offensive coordinator hasn’t had to get too wild with his calls since Ohio State has played such weak competition so far. Kelly will have to get a little more funky this week since Iowa is stout on defense.
With Oregon on deck for the Buckeyes next week, Ryan Day will be looking for another complete performance from his team ahead of the trip to Eugene. This won’t be as ugly as 2022 for Hawkeye fans, but it also won’t be fun for them to watch.
Ohio State 37, Iowa 13
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Plus picks against the spread for the rest of this week’s games around the conference.
Last week ATS: 6-9 (2-5 National, 4-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 48-47 (15-17 National, 33-30 B1G)
Last week certainly had some frustrating results. Michigan fell apart in the fourth quarter to lose the cover, Louisville and Arkansas narrowly missed covering on Saturday afternoon, while Auburn couldn’t finish off Oklahoma.
Our record would look a lot better had we had a little more luck in those games. I guess that’s why they call it gambling!
B1G games (All games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
Michigan State v. No. 6 Oregon (-24.5) - Friday 9:00 p.m. ET - FOX
The schedule makers certainly didn’t do Michigan State any favors in this spot. The Spartans are coming off a 38-7 loss to Ohio State on Saturday night, and now have to travel out to Eugene on a short week to take on the Ducks. Right now the only thing going for Michigan State is head coach Jonathan Smith has a lot of familiarity with going to Autzen Stadium from his time at Oregon State.
Oregon has finally started to look like the team we expected them to be prior to the season. After struggling with Idaho and Boise State, the Ducks had no problems with Oregon State and UCLA. About the only thing Oregon can be criticized about in their last two games is not covering against the Bruins last week. Just imagine what Dillon Gabriel is going to be able to do to the Michigan State defense after seeing how much success Will Howard had on Saturday night.
We have seen countless times how much a game against Ohio State takes out of teams the next week. Now Michigan State not only has to deal with all those body blows from Saturday night, they have to travel across the country to take on a talented Oregon team that will be hosting their first-ever Big Ten game.
The Spartans are way too sloppy with the football to stay inside the spread.
Oregon 45, Michigan State 17
UCLA v. No. 7 Penn State (-27.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX
After missing on Penn State’s opener against West Virginia, I somehow have navigated the last three games for the Nittany Lions, correctly predicting they’d cover against Kent State, while siding with Bowling Green and Illinois in the other two contests.
Something still doesn’t feel quite right about the offense of the Nittany Lions, though. It looked like in the opener we’d see Drew Allar air out things more in new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s offense, but that really hasn’t been the case over the last few games.
UCLA is a mess right now. At least for new head coach Deshaun Foster, his team is playing hard. The Bruins didn’t get completely blown off the field against LSU and Oregon. Aside from effort, not much else is going right for UCLA. They have no running game and Ethan Garbers has struggled at quarterback, which is surprising since the Bruins have a couple receivers who played pretty well last year. Since the offense hasn’t been able to sustain drives, it has put more pressure on the defense.
UCLA has already gone to a tough environment and covered this year, squeezing inside the number against LSU a couple weeks ago. This trip to State College is going to be a lot different, especially since it starts at noon in the eastern time zone. Penn State has more to offer on defense than LSU did, so it is going to be extremely challenging for the Bruins to put points on the scoreboard.
I think the Nittany Lions blow out UCLA to send a message to USC, who they take on in Los Angeles next Saturday.
Penn State 44, UCLA 13
Purdue v. Wisconsin (-13.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Wisconsin really needs to channel Barry Alvarez and Bret Bielema in this game. If the Badgers don’t run the football at least 40 times, Luke Fickell should fire offensive coordinator Phil Longo on the spot. The running game was working against USC and then for some reason Wisconsin decided the best strategy after halftime would be to abandon what was working. USC outscored the Badgers 28-0 in the second half.
How bad are things in West Lafayette? Following last week’s 28-10 loss to Nebraska, head coach Ryan Walters got rid of offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. Opponents have had a lot of success running the football against the Boilermakers, which is another reason why Wisconsin should give Chez Mellusi and Tawee Walker plenty of carries on Saturday afternoon.
Laying nearly two touchdowns with Wisconsin is pretty scary, but it feels like the right play since the Boilermakers haven’t been competitive in any of their three games against FBS foes this year. At least with the Badgers there feels like more of a path to right the ship a bit, where Purdue is lost at sea.
Wisconsin 31, Purdue 14
No. 23 Indiana (-13.5) v. Northwestern - 3:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Apparently I haven’t learned my lesson when it comes to Indiana football, since I have backed the opponents of the Hoosiers to cover in each of the last three games. Maybe Curt Cignetti is printing on my picks and reading them to his team to fire them up before games. Kurtis Rourke had some rough moments early in last week’s game against Maryland, throwing his first two interceptions of the season in the first half of the 42-28 win. The Ohio transfer has thrown for at least 250 yards in each of the last four games.
Northwestern is a really tough watch. Take away their 31-7 win over Eastern Illinois and the Wildcats haven’t scored more than 20 points in their three games against FBS foes this year. Even when they scored 20 points against Duke, that was a game that went to double overtime. I have no idea how they are going to keep pace with an Indiana offense that has scored at least 31 points in every game this season, and at least 40 points in their last four contests.
The Hoosiers continue the fairly tale start to the Cignetti Era in Bloomington with an easy win over Northwestern in the temporary stadium on the shores of Lake Michigan that holds like seven people.
Indiana 38, Northwestern 10
Rutgers v. Nebraska (-6.5) - 4:00 p.m. ET - FS1
Nebraska was able to rebound from their overtime loss to Illinois by pulling away from Purdue in the second half in West Lafayette last week. Quarterback Dylan Raiola is playing more like an upperclassman and not a freshman, throwing for over 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns over his first five games with the Cornhuskers. The Nebraska defense has also been really good, allowing 10 points or less in four games so far this season.
Not only is Indiana undefeated so far this season, Rutgers enters this game at 4-0. Last week the Scarlet Knights grinded out a 21-18 win over Washington. The formula for Greg Schiano’s team is to wear down defenses with their running game, have Athan Kaliakmanis make some smart throws, and then rely on your defense to close out games. Kyle Monangai has been one of the best running backs in the country so far this year, but he will be facing his toughest test of the season so far on Saturday afternoon.
I still don’t fully trust Nebraska. This has the feel of a game where Schiano is going to throw some looks at Raiola that will confuse him. The Cornhuskers have been cruising in games where they have built a sizable lead. I don’t think Nebraska is going to run away with this game, and we have all seen how they crumble in one-score contests.
Rutgers 24, Nebraska 20
No. 10 Michigan v. Washington (-2.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - NBC
We have a rematch of last year’s title game where pretty much nobody of note from either side is back. That’s not technically true since the Wolverines still have Donovan Edwards, who must be a victim of the video game cover curse since he is only averaging 4.4 yards per carry so far this season and has taken a backseat to Kalel Mullings in the backfield.
Quarterback Alex Orji will be making his third start of the season, and is still looking for his first game with at least 100 yards passing.
It feels like Washington is still trying to figure out who they are in Jedd Fisch’s first year as head coach. The Huskies have a solid defense, they just have sputtered on offense recently, scoring less than 20 points in two of their last three games, losing both of those contests. Washington is going to need quarterback Will Rogers to make some smart decisions since the Wolverines are led by their defense.
After starting the season with five games in Ann Arbor, now Michigan has to go a long way on their first road trip of the season. If Washington can shut down the run, they should be able to beat the Wolverines since we all have seen that Alex Orji can’t throw the football. The Huskies get some revenge for losing to Michigan in January.
Washington 21, Michigan 17
No. 11 USC (-8.5) v. Minnesota - 7:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Lincoln Riley and the Trojans probably won’t even know where they are by the end of the week. After playing in their first Big Ten game a couple weeks ago in Ann Arbor, USC was back in Los Angeles last week to take on Wisconsin, and now they’ll be heading to Minneapolis to take on the Golden Gophers. At least USC should be happy this game isn’t a month later since we all know how suspect the weather in Minneapolis can be as the season moves along.
Minnesota did show a little life in the fourth quarter against Michigan, scoring 21 points to keep the Wolverines from covering. The Golden Gophers still are having a tough time running the football, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this year. When Minnesota has been good under Fleck, they use the run to set up the pass. They haven’t been able to do that this year, which is why their only wins have come against Rhode Island and Nevada.
I can’t say I’m a fan of either coach in this game. What I do like is how the defense of the Trojans has played since D’Anton Lynn took over as defensive coordinator. USC has the ability to jump out to a lead over Minnesota, making the Golden Gophers throw the football, which they haven’t looked all that comfortable doing with Max Brosmer behind center.
USC 34, Minnesota 20
Iowa v. No. 3 Ohio State (-19.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS
Ohio State was able to easily navigate their first road game of the season, defeating Michigan State 38-7 on Saturday night. All the talk following the win was about wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, with the true freshman receiver making two insane one-handed catches on the same drive late in the first half.
With how well Will Howard was slinging the football against the Spartans, the Buckeyes didn’t really need more from Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. The duo will be trying to find holes this week against a Iowa rush defense that hasn’t allowed over 100 yards on the ground this season.
Imagine if Iowa had gotten rid of Brian Ferentz sooner. The offense of the Hawkeyes has been solid in the first four games under offensive coordinator Tim Lester. The star of the offense has been running back Kaleb Johnson, who has ran for at least 100 yards in every Iowa game so far this season. Had the Hawkeyes not blown a second half lead at home to Iowa State, this would be a matchup of undefeated teams.
Iowa does a few things well on both sides of the football. Ohio State is great at pretty much everything. Honestly, it feels like we haven’t even had the full Chip Kelly experience on offense yet since the new Buckeye offensive coordinator hasn’t had to get too wild with his calls since Ohio State has played such weak competition so far. Kelly will have to get a little more funky this week since Iowa is stout on defense.
With Oregon on deck for the Buckeyes next week, Ryan Day will be looking for another complete performance from his team ahead of the trip to Eugene. This won’t be as ugly as 2022 for Hawkeye fans, but it also won’t be fun for them to watch.
Ohio State 37, Iowa 13
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