Brett Ludwiczak
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MC&J: Miami will try and stay undefeated when they take on Cal in Week 6 national action
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Michael Pimentel/ISI Photos/Getty Images
Plus picks for this week’s most interesting games outside the Big Ten.
Last week ATS: 6-9 (2-5 National, 4-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 48-47 (15-17 National, 33-30 B1G)
Picks for this week’s Big Ten games can be found here.
Syracuse v. No. 25 UNLV (-6.5) - Friday 9:00 p.m. ET - FS1
This game fascinates me for a couple reasons. First, how will former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord and the Orange handle their first road game of the year? Syracuse has played their first five games of the season at home and now they have to travel all the way out to Las Vegas to take on a UNLV team that is undefeated on the season.
The Orange have played well for most of the season, but the loss to Stanford a couple weeks ago stings a lot. McCord and company were able to get back on track last week with a 42-14 win over Holy Cross.
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Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images
Speaking of Holy Cross, that is where quarterback Matthew Sluka played before transferring to UNLV. Sluka won’t play in this game, or any other game the rest of the year since he is taking a redshirt after he claims UNLV didn’t live up to their NIL guarantees. Hajj-Malik Williams is now the starter for the Rebels, throwing for three touchdowns and rushing for over 100 yards last week in his first start of the season.
I think Syracuse is the better team and has more weapons on offense with running back Logan Allen, tight end Oronde Gadsden II, and wide receiver Trebor Pena. UNLV finally suffers their first setback of the season.
Syracuse 33, UNLV 27
No. 9 Missouri v. No. 25 Texas A&M (-1.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC\
Even though Texas A&M was able to squeak by Arkansas last week, I’m still not sold on the Aggies. Their offense seems to have a hard time moving the football. Quarterback Marcel Reed isn’t a big threat through the air, failing to pass for 200 yards in each of the last three games.
Missouri got a big scare a couple weeks ago when they were taken to double overtime by Vanderbilt in Missouri. The Tigers had a bye last week to assess their issues in that game and correct them, as well as prepare to head to College Station. I just think the Tigers are a more complete team and are equipped to handle the atmosphere they’ll face on the road on Saturday.
Missouri 28, Texas A&M 20
No. 12 Ole Miss (-9.5) v. South Carolina - 3:30 p.m. ET - ESPN
The playoff hopes of Ole Miss took a big blow last week when they lost at home to Kentucky. The Rebels aren’t eliminated from contention but they can’t afford another loss. Lane Kiffin’s team has a ton of weapons on offense, they just need to eliminate penalties and some suspect decision making.
South Carolina already showed they can push a ranked team to the limit in Columbia, barely losing to LSU a few weeks ago. Robby Ashford looks like he has settled in at quarterback, tossing two touchdowns last week against Akron, and adding 100 yards on the ground.
Weird things happen when unranked South Carolina squads host ranked teams. This feels like one of those games that isn’t decided until late in the fourth quarter so I’ll be happy to take the points in what is shaping up to be a one-score game.
Ole Miss 35, South Carolina 31
No. 15 Clemson (-14.5) v. Florida State - 7:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
After getting their first win in an ugly game against Cal, Florida State was back to being awful last week at SMU, showing no fight against the Mustangs. As if the loss wasn’t bad enough, quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei is out with an injury. Then again, maybe Brock Glenn can provide a spark for the Seminoles.
Clemson opened the season by getting destroyed by Georgia in Atlanta. Things have gotten better for the Tigers since, as they have scored at least 40 points in each contest. During that span Cade Klubnik has thrown 12 touchdown passes. Dabo Swinney’s team is now looking like the team that many thought could make the playoff this year.
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Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images
I don’t know how anyone can back Florida State right now. Even favored by more than two touchdowns on the road, I don’t think Clemson will have much trouble adding to the woes of the Seminoles. The Tigers keep pressure on Miami in the ACC with an easy win.
Clemson 38, Florida State 14
No. 4 Tennessee (-13.5) v. Arkansas - 7:30 pm. ET - ABC
Another team in Orange favored by double digits on the road is Tennessee. Josh Heupel has the Vols playing at a high level so far this season. Last time we saw Tennessee they shut down Oklahoma in Norman. Dylan Sampson has been one of the best running backs in the country, already piling up 10 rushing touchdowns.
I had high hopes for Arkansas last week against Texas A&M. The Razorbacks let me down, not doing much after scoring a little over a minute into the game and leading the Aggies 14-7 after the first quarter. Texas A&M was able to shut down Ja’Quinden Jackson, holding him to just 37 yards on 10 carries.
The Razorbacks don’t have the punch to keep pace with an explosive Tennessee team. I’m not concerned about the Volunteers being on the road here since they have already won at Oklahoma, who is a better team that Arkansas. Tennessee is fresh heading into this game after a bye last week and it’ll show.
Tennessee 42, Arkansas 20
UCF (-2.5) v. Florida - 7:45 p.m. ET - SEC Network
Neither team is ranked heading into this game but it’s a fun matchup for some in-state bragging rights. UCF looked awful last week at home against Colorado, getting blown out by the Buffaloes 48-21. The Golden Knights have a strong rushing attack, but as we saw last week it doesn’t work if they fall behind by a sizable amount.
The Gators had a rough start to the season, losing to Miami and Texas A&M. I think Florida is heading in the right direction, though. While I’m not a fan of the two-quarterback system, Billy Napier made it work against Mississippi State. Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway combined to only miss on two passes and toss three touchdowns in the 45-28 win over the Bulldogs.
I’m not banking on KJ Jefferson to have another big performance at The Swamp. UCF is wounded after losing to Colorado, and now they have to hit the road to take on a Florida team that responded to a tough loss to Texas A&M with a win. Give me the Gators with the points here.
Florida 28, UCF 24
No. 8 Miami (FL) (-10.5) v. Cal - 10:30 p.m. ET - ESPN
Miami was able to survive Virginia Tech last week to keep their CFP hopes alive. Cam Ward has been electrifying so far this season, averaging over 350 yards passing per game. Ward has some familiarity with Cal from his time at Washington State. Even though the Cougars lost last year in Berkeley he still threw for 350 yards and three scores. Ward returns this year with more talent around him.
So far this season, Cal has played some teams with big problems in Florida State, San Diego State, and Auburn. The Golden Bears lost last time out to the Seminoles. Francisco Mendoza isn’t a good quarterback, and it hasn’t helped running back Jaydn Ott has been banged up.
There will be a lot of excitement from Cal fans for this game since College GameDay is going to be in town. That’s going to make for a long day though, since this game isn’t until late. As long as Mario Cristobal doesn’t make any dub decisions Miami should win this game by at least 11.
Miami (FL) 35, Cal 17
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Michael Pimentel/ISI Photos/Getty Images
Plus picks for this week’s most interesting games outside the Big Ten.
Last week ATS: 6-9 (2-5 National, 4-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 48-47 (15-17 National, 33-30 B1G)
Picks for this week’s Big Ten games can be found here.
National games (All games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
Syracuse v. No. 25 UNLV (-6.5) - Friday 9:00 p.m. ET - FS1
This game fascinates me for a couple reasons. First, how will former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord and the Orange handle their first road game of the year? Syracuse has played their first five games of the season at home and now they have to travel all the way out to Las Vegas to take on a UNLV team that is undefeated on the season.
The Orange have played well for most of the season, but the loss to Stanford a couple weeks ago stings a lot. McCord and company were able to get back on track last week with a 42-14 win over Holy Cross.
Speaking of Holy Cross, that is where quarterback Matthew Sluka played before transferring to UNLV. Sluka won’t play in this game, or any other game the rest of the year since he is taking a redshirt after he claims UNLV didn’t live up to their NIL guarantees. Hajj-Malik Williams is now the starter for the Rebels, throwing for three touchdowns and rushing for over 100 yards last week in his first start of the season.
I think Syracuse is the better team and has more weapons on offense with running back Logan Allen, tight end Oronde Gadsden II, and wide receiver Trebor Pena. UNLV finally suffers their first setback of the season.
Syracuse 33, UNLV 27
No. 9 Missouri v. No. 25 Texas A&M (-1.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC\
Even though Texas A&M was able to squeak by Arkansas last week, I’m still not sold on the Aggies. Their offense seems to have a hard time moving the football. Quarterback Marcel Reed isn’t a big threat through the air, failing to pass for 200 yards in each of the last three games.
Missouri got a big scare a couple weeks ago when they were taken to double overtime by Vanderbilt in Missouri. The Tigers had a bye last week to assess their issues in that game and correct them, as well as prepare to head to College Station. I just think the Tigers are a more complete team and are equipped to handle the atmosphere they’ll face on the road on Saturday.
Missouri 28, Texas A&M 20
No. 12 Ole Miss (-9.5) v. South Carolina - 3:30 p.m. ET - ESPN
The playoff hopes of Ole Miss took a big blow last week when they lost at home to Kentucky. The Rebels aren’t eliminated from contention but they can’t afford another loss. Lane Kiffin’s team has a ton of weapons on offense, they just need to eliminate penalties and some suspect decision making.
South Carolina already showed they can push a ranked team to the limit in Columbia, barely losing to LSU a few weeks ago. Robby Ashford looks like he has settled in at quarterback, tossing two touchdowns last week against Akron, and adding 100 yards on the ground.
Weird things happen when unranked South Carolina squads host ranked teams. This feels like one of those games that isn’t decided until late in the fourth quarter so I’ll be happy to take the points in what is shaping up to be a one-score game.
Ole Miss 35, South Carolina 31
No. 15 Clemson (-14.5) v. Florida State - 7:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
After getting their first win in an ugly game against Cal, Florida State was back to being awful last week at SMU, showing no fight against the Mustangs. As if the loss wasn’t bad enough, quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei is out with an injury. Then again, maybe Brock Glenn can provide a spark for the Seminoles.
Clemson opened the season by getting destroyed by Georgia in Atlanta. Things have gotten better for the Tigers since, as they have scored at least 40 points in each contest. During that span Cade Klubnik has thrown 12 touchdown passes. Dabo Swinney’s team is now looking like the team that many thought could make the playoff this year.
I don’t know how anyone can back Florida State right now. Even favored by more than two touchdowns on the road, I don’t think Clemson will have much trouble adding to the woes of the Seminoles. The Tigers keep pressure on Miami in the ACC with an easy win.
Clemson 38, Florida State 14
No. 4 Tennessee (-13.5) v. Arkansas - 7:30 pm. ET - ABC
Another team in Orange favored by double digits on the road is Tennessee. Josh Heupel has the Vols playing at a high level so far this season. Last time we saw Tennessee they shut down Oklahoma in Norman. Dylan Sampson has been one of the best running backs in the country, already piling up 10 rushing touchdowns.
I had high hopes for Arkansas last week against Texas A&M. The Razorbacks let me down, not doing much after scoring a little over a minute into the game and leading the Aggies 14-7 after the first quarter. Texas A&M was able to shut down Ja’Quinden Jackson, holding him to just 37 yards on 10 carries.
The Razorbacks don’t have the punch to keep pace with an explosive Tennessee team. I’m not concerned about the Volunteers being on the road here since they have already won at Oklahoma, who is a better team that Arkansas. Tennessee is fresh heading into this game after a bye last week and it’ll show.
Tennessee 42, Arkansas 20
UCF (-2.5) v. Florida - 7:45 p.m. ET - SEC Network
Neither team is ranked heading into this game but it’s a fun matchup for some in-state bragging rights. UCF looked awful last week at home against Colorado, getting blown out by the Buffaloes 48-21. The Golden Knights have a strong rushing attack, but as we saw last week it doesn’t work if they fall behind by a sizable amount.
The Gators had a rough start to the season, losing to Miami and Texas A&M. I think Florida is heading in the right direction, though. While I’m not a fan of the two-quarterback system, Billy Napier made it work against Mississippi State. Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway combined to only miss on two passes and toss three touchdowns in the 45-28 win over the Bulldogs.
I’m not banking on KJ Jefferson to have another big performance at The Swamp. UCF is wounded after losing to Colorado, and now they have to hit the road to take on a Florida team that responded to a tough loss to Texas A&M with a win. Give me the Gators with the points here.
Florida 28, UCF 24
No. 8 Miami (FL) (-10.5) v. Cal - 10:30 p.m. ET - ESPN
Miami was able to survive Virginia Tech last week to keep their CFP hopes alive. Cam Ward has been electrifying so far this season, averaging over 350 yards passing per game. Ward has some familiarity with Cal from his time at Washington State. Even though the Cougars lost last year in Berkeley he still threw for 350 yards and three scores. Ward returns this year with more talent around him.
So far this season, Cal has played some teams with big problems in Florida State, San Diego State, and Auburn. The Golden Bears lost last time out to the Seminoles. Francisco Mendoza isn’t a good quarterback, and it hasn’t helped running back Jaydn Ott has been banged up.
There will be a lot of excitement from Cal fans for this game since College GameDay is going to be in town. That’s going to make for a long day though, since this game isn’t until late. As long as Mario Cristobal doesn’t make any dub decisions Miami should win this game by at least 11.
Miami (FL) 35, Cal 17
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