Brett Ludwiczak
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MC&J: Conference Championship Weekend has a number of fun matchups on tap
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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Oregon, Texas, and SMU have all made title games in their first season in their new conferences.
Last week ATS: 14-4 (6-2 National, 8-2 B1G)
Season ATS: 120-110 (49-49 National, 71-61 B1G)
I should be thrilled at going 14-4 last week, and a combined 26-7 against the spread over the last two weeks. Instead, I’m sitting here kicking myself for having so much faith in Ryan Day and the Buckeyes against Michigan. Apparently I learned nothing from the previous three seasons.
With the loss to the Wolverines, I now don’t have to worry about having a Buckeye game to pick. Hopefully I can keep the good times rolling ahead of the playoff matchups and bowl schedule being filled out on Sunday.
Conference USA: Western Kentucky v. Jacksonville State (-3.5) - Friday 7:00 p.m. ET - CBS Sports Network
This is a rematch of a game played last week in Bowling Green, with the Hilltoppers squeaking out a 19-17 win. Lucas Carneiro hit a 50-yard field goal with three seconds left to earn Western Kentucky a spot in the conference championship game over Sam Houston. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw for 301 yards in the victory, marking the second time this season where he has thrown for at least 100 yards in a game.
After opening up the season with three straight losses, Jacksonville State had won eight straight games before losing to Western Kentucky last week. Expect Rich Rodriguez’s offense to rely heavily on the running game, as they have two players who have rushed for over 1,000 yards this year. Running back Tre Stewart and quarterback Tyler Huff have combined to rush for 2,579 yards and 33 touchdowns this season.
One area of concern for the Gamecocks is Huff injured his ankle in last week’s game and is a game-time decision. Despite the uncertainty at quarterback, Jacksonville State nearly beat Western Kentucky on the road. Now they’ll have the Hilltoppers at home this week. Even if Huff isn’t able to play, veteran quarterback Logan Smothers will take the snaps on Friday night.
I think Huff will do everything he can to be on the field for this game and RichRod will lead Jacksonville State to their first Conference USA title in just their second season in the conference.
Jacksonville State 34, Western Kentucky 24
Mountain West: No. 20 UNLV v. No. 10 Boise State (-3.5) - Friday 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Friday night features a fascinating rematch in Boise. In late October these teams met in Las Vegas, with Boise State earning a 29-24 victory over the Rebels. UNLV actually held a 24-23 lead before Ashton Jeanty’s touchdown with just over 12 minutes to play ended up being the game-winning score.
The Heisman Trophy hopeful running back finished the game with 128 yards on 33 carries. The Broncos have won 11 straight games, with their only loss coming by a field goal at Oregon back in September.
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Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images
Aside from the loss to Boise State, the only other loss the Rebels suffered came to Syracuse in non-conference play. Since the loss to the Broncos, UNLV has won four straight games. Last week against Nevada, the Rebels rolled up over 350 yards on the ground, as running back Jai’Den Thomas and quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams each rushed for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Williams has been solid behind center after Matthew Sluka decided to redshirt early in the season. The Campbell transfer has thrown for 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions, while adding nine rushing touchdowns.
Conference Championship Weekend needs some chaos. I think UNLV will be the team to stir things up. Boise State hasn’t been quite as dominant over the last month as they were earlier in the season. UNLV already getting a look at Jeanty, quarterback Maddux Madsen and the offense of the Broncos will also help the upset chances of the Rebels. UNLV is explosive on both sides of the football and it will show on Friday night.
UNLV 31, Boise State 28
American: Tulane (-5.5) v. No. 24 Army - Friday 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Tulane will be playing in their third straight American Conference Championship Game, having split those appearances, beating UCF in 2022 before losing to SMU in 2023. On the other side, Army will be playing in their first conference title game, putting together one of the best seasons in school history, entering this game at 10-1. The Black Knights rebounded from a loss to Notre Dame by beating UTSA last week 29-24, while Tulane lost to Memphis on Thanksgiving night, snapping an eight-game winning streak.
It’s not that I don’t think Army is a good team, I just feel like Tulane is equipped to slow them down. The Green Wave have already gone on the road and beat a service academy, shutting out Navy 35-0 last month. Between quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes, Tulane has a little too much offense for Army to keep pace with. The Black Knights aren’t as good when they are playing from behind, and I have a feeling they’ll be doing just that on Friday night.
Tulane 27, Army 17
Big 12: No. 16 Iowa State v. No. 15 Arizona State (-2.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC
For as much heat as the expanded playoff has gotten for some of the arguments about whether Alabama and some other three-loss SEC teams should make the field, a fun part of the playoff is games like this. The winner will receive an automatic bid and a possible first round bye, depending on what happens with Boise State on Friday night.
Arizona State is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won seven of their last eight games. The Sun Devils are coming off a 49-7 pasting of Arizona to secure their spot in Dallas over BYU and Colorado. Running back Cam Skattebo leads the charge for Arizona State, rushing for nearly 1,400 yards and 17 touchdowns this year, but don’t overlook quarterback Sam Leavitt. The Michigan State transfer has tossed 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions in 2024.
I’ll be honest, I’m just not sold on Iowa State and Matt Campbell. It feels like anytime in a big game, Campbell fails to get the job done. Just look at last month when the Cyclones saw their dreams of an undefeated regular season dashed when they lost by a point at home to Texas Tech. Not only is Skattebo too much for Iowa State’s defense to handle, Kenny Dillingham outcoaches Campbell.
Arizona State 31, Iowa State 23
MAC: Ohio v. Miami (OH) (-2.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Early in the season, many people thought the RedHawks had enough juice to head to Detroit after they started the season 1-4. Since the ugly start, Miami has won seven straight games, with only one of those victories coming by less than 10 points. One of those wins was a 30-20 triumph over Ohio in Oxford in the middle of October. One name to keep an eye on for the RedHawks is linebacker Matt Salopek, who has now recorded at least 100 tackles in four straight seasons.
Ohio hasn’t let losing quarterback Kurtis Rourke to Indiana hurt them too much, winning at least nine games for the third straight season. Don’t expect Parker Navarro to stretch the field like Rourke, instead utilizing his legs more. The senior has run for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns in each of the last three games. The Bobcats also have a defense that has been just as impressive as Miami’s this season.
In a game that is a toss up, I’ll take the points and Ohio to get some revenge for the loss to the RedHawks back in October.
Ohio 20, Miami (OH) 17
SEC: No. 6 Georgia v. No. 2 Texas (-2.5) - 4:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Are we even sure Georgia is good? The Bulldogs still would have been playing in Atlanta this weekend had they lost to Georgia Tech on Friday night. Instead, the Yellow Jackets blew a fourth quarter lead and lost to their in-state rival in eight overtimes. Quarterback Carson Beck threw five touchdowns last week, but those numbers were a little inflated since he threw two of those scores in overtime.
Many were calling for Texas A&M to upset Texas last week and earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game. Luckily I went against the grain and sided with the Longhorns in College Station. Quintrevion Wisner was massive in the victory, rushing for 186 yards. Arch Manning even got in on the fun, rushing for a touchdown. Even though Quinn Ewers will be the primary quarterback, expect to see Manning in some specialized packages in the game.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25774154/2187949358.jpg "Texas v Texas A&M")
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images
I’m not putting much stock in Georgia’s 30-15 win over the Longhorns in Austin in October since it was such a weird game. Texas lost three fumbles in the game, which is something I doubt they do a second time against the Bulldogs. What I could see repeating itself from the first matchup is Beck throwing three picks, since he has been really off at times this season.
The Longhorns win the conference title in their first season as part of the SEC, while Georgia loses in the conference championship game for a second season in a row.
Texas 28, Georgia 20
Sun Belt: Marshall v. Louisiana (-5.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - ESPN
Both the Thundering Herd and Ragin’ Cajuns have been impressive in Sun Belt play, entering the title game with a combined 14-2 record in conference. Louisiana will be making their first appearance in the game since winning it in 2021, and Marshall will be playing in their first Sun Belt Championship Game after joining the league three years ago.
One thing about this game that is a little weird to me is the head coaching status of Charles Huff. The Marshall head coach has been linked with the opening at Southern Mississippi. Even if an announcement isn’t made until after Saturday’s game, who knows what the mindset of the Marshall players will be knowing their head coach could be leaving them.
Having to hit the road and take down a tough Louisiana team is asking a little too much.
Louisiana 35, Marshall 24
ACC: No. 17 Clemson v. No. 8 SMU (-2.5) - 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Do we really want Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney ruining the first 12-team playoff? Swinney always seems to run his mouth and spew something cringey, so I would have no doubts he would do just that if the Tigers were able to beat SMU on Saturday night.
The Tigers are coming off a 17-14 loss to South Carolina, in a game they held a 14-10 lead before LaNorris Sellers ran for a 20-yard touchdown with just over a minute to go. Clemson had no answer for the quarterback of the Gamecocks, who ran for 166 yards in the game.
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Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
I was very wrong about SMU last week. I thought the Mustangs would struggle with Cal. Instead, SMU smashed the Golden Bears 38-6 to finish the regular season at 11-1. The Mustangs have now scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games. Clemson will have their hands full with running back Brashard Smith, who has rushed for 1,157 yards and 14 touchdowns so far this year.
With a win, SMU would earn a first round bye in the playoff. Maybe Clemson and quarterback Cade Klubnik rise up since they have more experience playing in big games like this, but I doubt it. The Tigers just aren’t as good as Swinney wants you to think. SMU and Rhett Lashlee are hungry and I wouldn’t be surprised if they took down an overrated Clemson team by double digits.
SMU 37, Clemson 27
Big Ten: No. 3 Penn State v. No. 1 Oregon (-3.5) - 8:00 p.m. ET - CBS
Penn State head coach James Franklin better send Ryan Day a big gift basket after Day’s pathetic game plan against Michigan allowed the Nittany Lions to back into the Big Ten Championship Game. I’m sure there was some sort of contract bonus that Franklin earned since Penn State will be making the trip to Indianapolis to take on Oregon.
No matter the result on Saturday night, the Nittany Lions will be a part of this year’s playoff, at worst hosting a home playoff game if they aren’t able to beat the Ducks.
It looks like the bye week came at the perfect time for Oregon. Following a close 16-13 win over Wisconsin, the Ducks had a week off before returning to the field to bury rival Washington 49-21 on Saturday night in Eugene. Wide receiver Tez Johnson returned to the field for the first time since he was injured against Michigan in early November, catching a touchdown pass against the Huskies.
There’s no way I trust James Franklin in a big game. I’m sure this will follow the normal script of losses Franklin suffers. “Big Game James” just doesn’t have that dog in him. On the other side, Dan Lanning is ready for this. Last week Lanning got over the hump of beating Washington, now he wants to take his team into the playoff as the top seed, earning a bye on the opening weekend.
The Nittany Lions aren’t ready for the speed and the different looks they’ll see from Oregon.
Oregon 30, Penn State 17
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images
Oregon, Texas, and SMU have all made title games in their first season in their new conferences.
Last week ATS: 14-4 (6-2 National, 8-2 B1G)
Season ATS: 120-110 (49-49 National, 71-61 B1G)
I should be thrilled at going 14-4 last week, and a combined 26-7 against the spread over the last two weeks. Instead, I’m sitting here kicking myself for having so much faith in Ryan Day and the Buckeyes against Michigan. Apparently I learned nothing from the previous three seasons.
With the loss to the Wolverines, I now don’t have to worry about having a Buckeye game to pick. Hopefully I can keep the good times rolling ahead of the playoff matchups and bowl schedule being filled out on Sunday.
Conference championship games (All games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
Conference USA: Western Kentucky v. Jacksonville State (-3.5) - Friday 7:00 p.m. ET - CBS Sports Network
This is a rematch of a game played last week in Bowling Green, with the Hilltoppers squeaking out a 19-17 win. Lucas Carneiro hit a 50-yard field goal with three seconds left to earn Western Kentucky a spot in the conference championship game over Sam Houston. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw for 301 yards in the victory, marking the second time this season where he has thrown for at least 100 yards in a game.
After opening up the season with three straight losses, Jacksonville State had won eight straight games before losing to Western Kentucky last week. Expect Rich Rodriguez’s offense to rely heavily on the running game, as they have two players who have rushed for over 1,000 yards this year. Running back Tre Stewart and quarterback Tyler Huff have combined to rush for 2,579 yards and 33 touchdowns this season.
One area of concern for the Gamecocks is Huff injured his ankle in last week’s game and is a game-time decision. Despite the uncertainty at quarterback, Jacksonville State nearly beat Western Kentucky on the road. Now they’ll have the Hilltoppers at home this week. Even if Huff isn’t able to play, veteran quarterback Logan Smothers will take the snaps on Friday night.
I think Huff will do everything he can to be on the field for this game and RichRod will lead Jacksonville State to their first Conference USA title in just their second season in the conference.
Jacksonville State 34, Western Kentucky 24
Mountain West: No. 20 UNLV v. No. 10 Boise State (-3.5) - Friday 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Friday night features a fascinating rematch in Boise. In late October these teams met in Las Vegas, with Boise State earning a 29-24 victory over the Rebels. UNLV actually held a 24-23 lead before Ashton Jeanty’s touchdown with just over 12 minutes to play ended up being the game-winning score.
The Heisman Trophy hopeful running back finished the game with 128 yards on 33 carries. The Broncos have won 11 straight games, with their only loss coming by a field goal at Oregon back in September.
Aside from the loss to Boise State, the only other loss the Rebels suffered came to Syracuse in non-conference play. Since the loss to the Broncos, UNLV has won four straight games. Last week against Nevada, the Rebels rolled up over 350 yards on the ground, as running back Jai’Den Thomas and quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams each rushed for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Williams has been solid behind center after Matthew Sluka decided to redshirt early in the season. The Campbell transfer has thrown for 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions, while adding nine rushing touchdowns.
Conference Championship Weekend needs some chaos. I think UNLV will be the team to stir things up. Boise State hasn’t been quite as dominant over the last month as they were earlier in the season. UNLV already getting a look at Jeanty, quarterback Maddux Madsen and the offense of the Broncos will also help the upset chances of the Rebels. UNLV is explosive on both sides of the football and it will show on Friday night.
UNLV 31, Boise State 28
American: Tulane (-5.5) v. No. 24 Army - Friday 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Tulane will be playing in their third straight American Conference Championship Game, having split those appearances, beating UCF in 2022 before losing to SMU in 2023. On the other side, Army will be playing in their first conference title game, putting together one of the best seasons in school history, entering this game at 10-1. The Black Knights rebounded from a loss to Notre Dame by beating UTSA last week 29-24, while Tulane lost to Memphis on Thanksgiving night, snapping an eight-game winning streak.
It’s not that I don’t think Army is a good team, I just feel like Tulane is equipped to slow them down. The Green Wave have already gone on the road and beat a service academy, shutting out Navy 35-0 last month. Between quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes, Tulane has a little too much offense for Army to keep pace with. The Black Knights aren’t as good when they are playing from behind, and I have a feeling they’ll be doing just that on Friday night.
Tulane 27, Army 17
Big 12: No. 16 Iowa State v. No. 15 Arizona State (-2.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC
For as much heat as the expanded playoff has gotten for some of the arguments about whether Alabama and some other three-loss SEC teams should make the field, a fun part of the playoff is games like this. The winner will receive an automatic bid and a possible first round bye, depending on what happens with Boise State on Friday night.
Arizona State is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won seven of their last eight games. The Sun Devils are coming off a 49-7 pasting of Arizona to secure their spot in Dallas over BYU and Colorado. Running back Cam Skattebo leads the charge for Arizona State, rushing for nearly 1,400 yards and 17 touchdowns this year, but don’t overlook quarterback Sam Leavitt. The Michigan State transfer has tossed 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions in 2024.
I’ll be honest, I’m just not sold on Iowa State and Matt Campbell. It feels like anytime in a big game, Campbell fails to get the job done. Just look at last month when the Cyclones saw their dreams of an undefeated regular season dashed when they lost by a point at home to Texas Tech. Not only is Skattebo too much for Iowa State’s defense to handle, Kenny Dillingham outcoaches Campbell.
Arizona State 31, Iowa State 23
MAC: Ohio v. Miami (OH) (-2.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Early in the season, many people thought the RedHawks had enough juice to head to Detroit after they started the season 1-4. Since the ugly start, Miami has won seven straight games, with only one of those victories coming by less than 10 points. One of those wins was a 30-20 triumph over Ohio in Oxford in the middle of October. One name to keep an eye on for the RedHawks is linebacker Matt Salopek, who has now recorded at least 100 tackles in four straight seasons.
Ohio hasn’t let losing quarterback Kurtis Rourke to Indiana hurt them too much, winning at least nine games for the third straight season. Don’t expect Parker Navarro to stretch the field like Rourke, instead utilizing his legs more. The senior has run for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns in each of the last three games. The Bobcats also have a defense that has been just as impressive as Miami’s this season.
In a game that is a toss up, I’ll take the points and Ohio to get some revenge for the loss to the RedHawks back in October.
Ohio 20, Miami (OH) 17
SEC: No. 6 Georgia v. No. 2 Texas (-2.5) - 4:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Are we even sure Georgia is good? The Bulldogs still would have been playing in Atlanta this weekend had they lost to Georgia Tech on Friday night. Instead, the Yellow Jackets blew a fourth quarter lead and lost to their in-state rival in eight overtimes. Quarterback Carson Beck threw five touchdowns last week, but those numbers were a little inflated since he threw two of those scores in overtime.
Many were calling for Texas A&M to upset Texas last week and earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game. Luckily I went against the grain and sided with the Longhorns in College Station. Quintrevion Wisner was massive in the victory, rushing for 186 yards. Arch Manning even got in on the fun, rushing for a touchdown. Even though Quinn Ewers will be the primary quarterback, expect to see Manning in some specialized packages in the game.
I’m not putting much stock in Georgia’s 30-15 win over the Longhorns in Austin in October since it was such a weird game. Texas lost three fumbles in the game, which is something I doubt they do a second time against the Bulldogs. What I could see repeating itself from the first matchup is Beck throwing three picks, since he has been really off at times this season.
The Longhorns win the conference title in their first season as part of the SEC, while Georgia loses in the conference championship game for a second season in a row.
Texas 28, Georgia 20
Sun Belt: Marshall v. Louisiana (-5.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - ESPN
Both the Thundering Herd and Ragin’ Cajuns have been impressive in Sun Belt play, entering the title game with a combined 14-2 record in conference. Louisiana will be making their first appearance in the game since winning it in 2021, and Marshall will be playing in their first Sun Belt Championship Game after joining the league three years ago.
One thing about this game that is a little weird to me is the head coaching status of Charles Huff. The Marshall head coach has been linked with the opening at Southern Mississippi. Even if an announcement isn’t made until after Saturday’s game, who knows what the mindset of the Marshall players will be knowing their head coach could be leaving them.
Having to hit the road and take down a tough Louisiana team is asking a little too much.
Louisiana 35, Marshall 24
ACC: No. 17 Clemson v. No. 8 SMU (-2.5) - 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Do we really want Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney ruining the first 12-team playoff? Swinney always seems to run his mouth and spew something cringey, so I would have no doubts he would do just that if the Tigers were able to beat SMU on Saturday night.
The Tigers are coming off a 17-14 loss to South Carolina, in a game they held a 14-10 lead before LaNorris Sellers ran for a 20-yard touchdown with just over a minute to go. Clemson had no answer for the quarterback of the Gamecocks, who ran for 166 yards in the game.
I was very wrong about SMU last week. I thought the Mustangs would struggle with Cal. Instead, SMU smashed the Golden Bears 38-6 to finish the regular season at 11-1. The Mustangs have now scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games. Clemson will have their hands full with running back Brashard Smith, who has rushed for 1,157 yards and 14 touchdowns so far this year.
With a win, SMU would earn a first round bye in the playoff. Maybe Clemson and quarterback Cade Klubnik rise up since they have more experience playing in big games like this, but I doubt it. The Tigers just aren’t as good as Swinney wants you to think. SMU and Rhett Lashlee are hungry and I wouldn’t be surprised if they took down an overrated Clemson team by double digits.
SMU 37, Clemson 27
Big Ten: No. 3 Penn State v. No. 1 Oregon (-3.5) - 8:00 p.m. ET - CBS
Penn State head coach James Franklin better send Ryan Day a big gift basket after Day’s pathetic game plan against Michigan allowed the Nittany Lions to back into the Big Ten Championship Game. I’m sure there was some sort of contract bonus that Franklin earned since Penn State will be making the trip to Indianapolis to take on Oregon.
No matter the result on Saturday night, the Nittany Lions will be a part of this year’s playoff, at worst hosting a home playoff game if they aren’t able to beat the Ducks.
It looks like the bye week came at the perfect time for Oregon. Following a close 16-13 win over Wisconsin, the Ducks had a week off before returning to the field to bury rival Washington 49-21 on Saturday night in Eugene. Wide receiver Tez Johnson returned to the field for the first time since he was injured against Michigan in early November, catching a touchdown pass against the Huskies.
There’s no way I trust James Franklin in a big game. I’m sure this will follow the normal script of losses Franklin suffers. “Big Game James” just doesn’t have that dog in him. On the other side, Dan Lanning is ready for this. Last week Lanning got over the hump of beating Washington, now he wants to take his team into the playoff as the top seed, earning a bye on the opening weekend.
The Nittany Lions aren’t ready for the speed and the different looks they’ll see from Oregon.
Oregon 30, Penn State 17
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