Joe Dexter
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Game Preview: Ohio State @ Illinois
Joe Dexter via our good friends at Buckeye Battle Cry
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini — Memorial Stadium Saturday 12:00 PM ET
November football is what separates the contenders from the pretenders of college football. It’s why Ohio State has been in the hunt for a championship since the start of the 2013 season.
This point of the season is the valley of no return.
It’s hard to get out of the valley of the desert when your record is unscathed. Throw the wrench of a loss in the mix and all of a sudden all you’re hoping for is that there is enough water in the canteen to keep you alive until help arrives.
The Illinois Fighting Illinois understand the lay of the land.
A championship of any kind is out of reach. Yet, they own Memorial Stadium — the home turf in which they are 4-1 this season.
With their biggest weapon on offense back at full strength.
Meanwhile, Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer has the ultimate trump card. His returning weapon is bigger and better than Bill Cubit’s.
The Intangibles
TV: ABC (Sean McDonough, Chris Spielman, and Toddy McShay)
Sirius and XM: Channel 84
Radio: OSU Radio Network/97.1 WBNS (Paul Keels/Jim Lachey/Marty Bannister/Skip Mosic)
Online: WatchESPN | 97.1 WBNS (Audio)
Social Media: @IlliniFootball | @OhioStAthletics
Series Record: 66-30-4
EVANSTON, IL – NOVEMBER 29: Josh Ferguson #6 of the Illinois Fighting Illini runs past Kyle Queiro #21 of the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half on November 29, 2014 at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
Previewing the Illini
Illinois is a better program on and off the field with Bill Cubit as it’s head coach. Throw the Athletic Director situation aside — it’s impressive what the former Western Michigan head coach has been able to do with a team that should be completely fractured with what’s been going on the last few months.
How players have responded this year is further proof that the sliver in the side of this program was it’s head coach. The off the field issues were a representation of a lack of leadership at the top. The accusations of physical and mental abuse appear to be very valid.
The changes at the top would derail most programs under interim leadership. Players indebted to the previous regime could have easily shed their accountability when their head coach got sent to the side of the road.
Despite all of what went down in July and August, this team continues to leave it on the field.
That is reason enough to hire Bill Cubit as the permanent head coach. His leadership has turned around a program that could of hit rock bottom.
And now, The Illini are in a solid situation to win most ballgames.
Looking At The Tape Against Purdue
Josh Ferguson is the most dangerous offensive weapon in the Big Ten, that nobody is talking about.
The versatile play-maker is one of just four active players in Division I football to have 1,000 career receiving yards and 2,000 yards rushing.
So, why isn’t anybody talking about him?
Ferguson has missed nearly half of the season because of a shoulder injury and his impact has been missed.
A look at the tape from Saturday proves that. Ferguson was dangerous in the inside and outside run game. On passing downs, the senior lined up as a slot receiver and made plays. He gained his 133 yards on the ground through direct snaps, out of motion from the slot, and end around plays.
When Cubit’s pass-heavy offense stalled on the Purdue side of the field, it was Ferguson who opened things up in inside counters and traps. He also extended drives in the pass game on well-timed running back screens. With Ferguson in the lineup, the Illini are 5-1 this season.
Adding to the top-notch rushing attack is freshman running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn — who rushed for 180 yards and two touchdowns on Saturday. Despite being a power runner, Vaughn is athletic enough to make other big plays in the offense. It gives the Illini a true 1-2 punch in the rushing game.
Because of injury, Illinois’ passing attack has really floundered at times this season.
The Purdue secondary struggled to keep Bill Cubit’s skill players in check, which proves just how much players in big roles have improved.
Heading into last week, Wes Lunt was without his top two tight ends. Top receiver Mike Dudek has been out all season.
The team lacked so much depth at the position that they had to call upon true freshman Desmond Cain to be the team’s secondary receiver. A player who planned on redshirting and making an impact as a defensive back next season.
Heading into the Purdue game, the Illini had 46 dropped passes on the season.
Some of those mishaps are being cleaned up at a rapid rate though.
Cain had the best game of his career against Purdue on Saturday, catching his first touchdown, and pulling down 6 receptions. Now with two capable receivers in Cain and Geronimo Allison, the Illini passing offense is making huge strides.
Led by quarterback Wes Lunt, who might have the most misleading stat line of any quarterback in the country.
Because of the drops and inconsistencies in routes, his receiving yards and touchdowns are way down. The 6-5 junior is a great decision maker and has only thrown four picks on the season.
It’s safe to say though that he hasn’t faced the level of pressure that the Ohio State defensive line brings to the table.
Against Purdue, Quarterbacks coach and offensive play caller Ryan Cubit consistently put Lunt on the move in the pocket on designed roll outs. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was in part to get ready for the Ohio State defense.
Especially considering Lunt’s biggest weakness — reading man-to-man coverage. Which is the ultimate strength of the powerful Buckeye Silver Bullets.
Defensively, Illinois has struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, despite being one of the best run stopping units in the conference. That will play a major role on Saturday, as will game planning against an offense that they haven’t seen much of.
Especially when it comes to the decision-making ability of J.T. Barrett in the read option run game.
COLUMBUS, OH – NOVEMBER 7: Ezekiel Elliott #15 of the Ohio State Buckeyes scores on a 15-yard touchdown run in the second quarter against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio Stadium on November 7, 2015 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
Previewing the Buckeyes
Anyone that wants to doubt that Ohio State has the best coaching staff in the country needs to reevaluate how they interpret the game of football. In this day and age, we have forgotten just how important it is to win the close ones.
How impressive it is to find ways to win in the games that you are not dominated, when in all reality, you should be.
Urban Meyer continues to prove that on what seems like a week-by-week basis this season. As does his defensive staff, which have put together significant game plans that have led to huge wins.
That was the case on Saturday, when the Buckeye defense held Minnesota’s rushing attack to just 1.3 yards per carry. The Gopher rushing attack only saw two plays extended past four yards. What makes a performance like this a work of art is the ability to always walk on a tightrope.
And never completely fall off.
I realize that I’m in the minority, but I love the aggressiveness of this defense and it’s ability to control a game so well that it can overcome big plays.
The Buckeyes gave up some big plays, but they also held Minnesota to 9 yards or less on 7/15 drives.
On offense, there isn’t a more diverse unit in the country. A group that despite their flaws, finds enough ways to make plays to win. We saw that on Saturday night. It was not pretty, but Cardale Jones made the right plays at the right time to win.
Ezekiel Elliott has been doing that since he stepped into the starting role at running back.
Now this week, the read option games returns, after clicking at a high level against Rutgers. Expect much of the same against Illinois, who has athletic defensive ends, but have yet to prove they can out think a quarterback like J.T. Barrett in option reads.
COLUMBUS, OH – NOVEMBER 7: K.J. Maye #1 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers is forced out of bounds by Vonn Bell #11 of the Ohio State Buckeyes after picking up a first down in the fourth quarter at Ohio Stadium on November 7, 2015 in Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State defeated Minnesota 28-14. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
Debunking The Big Play
I love the dichotomy of college football and the stats it produces. Ohio State has the second best pass defense according to numbers, but there has to be some concern over the big plays that have been given up by the secondary.
Is it a major concern? No.
In a man coverage scheme, players in the secondary are going to get burned from time to time. Linebackers and safeties are going to make the wrong read. But the beauty of it is a good chunk of the time, athletes are going to make plays.
And that’s what this defense is — the most athletic group in college football.
Before this week, there was a lot of talk that the run defense has been soft for Ohio State. Though that talk has softened, the big play this year has proven other wise. Ohio State gave up zero runs over 20 yards in the first five games. Since then, they’ve only given up 5. Less than 1.4% of Ohio State’s run plays have been big plays.
Now, let’s take it to the 15 yard or more percentile. 5.6% of Ohio State’s runs against have been for 15 yards a more.
The passing game story is a little different.
Nearly 10% of opposing pass attempts have resulted in plays of 15 yards or more. When you break it down to just completions, more than 20% of opposing pass plays have turned into gains of 15 yards or more.
Let’s broaden the spectrum to bigger plays of 20 yards or more.
Opposing pass attempts have resulted in plays of 20 yards or more 7% of the time. If you narrow it down to just the completions, quarterbacks are connecting on big plays 14% of the time they connect with a receiver on a play.
Overall, Ohio State is giving up a rushing or receiving play of 20 yards or more just 3.7% of the time. Of the 618 plays the defense has been on the field for, 7.4% of those downs have resulted in rushing or passing plays of 15 yards or more.
Fans can believe whatever they want about the big play, but the numbers speak louder than the myth the eyes are selling you.
Three Key Matchups
Ohio State coaching staff vs. Josh Ferguson
The Swiss Army knife of Illinois’ offense will play a major role in Saturday’s game. Josh Ferguson is the Braxton Miller of the Illinois program and demands the respect he will get from the Ohio State coaching staff.
Bill Cubit has used him in so many ways this season that in-game defensive scheming will play a major role in being able to shut him down. Being able to adjust based on where he is on the field will play dividends at stopping any hopes of the big play.
Ferguson is a true threat and if the coaching staff takes him out of the game, it will be very hard for the Illinois offense to put points on the board.
Wes Lunt vs. The Secondary
Lunt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has all the tools and size (6’5″) to be a pro-style quarterback at the next level. His mechanics could use some work, but overall — he is pretty consistent with his throws.
One thing is clear — the Illinois coaching staff acknowledge that the ball in his hand presents the best chance of winning. 56% of Illinois’ offensive plays this year have been of the pass variety. That might change now that Josh Ferguson is healthy.
Still, Lunt is a huge key on Saturday. He will need to make plays on the run and if he can do it consistently, Illinois will give themselves a chance to win.
The Read Option vs. The Illini Front 7
Without question, this is the biggest match-up of the game. If Ohio State wants to run away with this one, it will be on the shoulders of J.T. Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott in the read option running game.
If Illinois is in this game, it’s because they have been able to make a handful of solid reads on the line of scrimmage to stop the powerful Ohio State offense when running the read option.
Stopping Ohio State consistently is going to be nearly impossible, even for a top 35 rated defense. The Illinois defensive line is very athletic, but hasn’t been able to put pressure on the quarterback. J.T. Barrett is too quick of a decision maker and Ezekiel Elliott is too physical of a back to be stopped in those situations.
I expect the biggest game of the year from Ezekiel Elliott and the Ohio State rushing game. They have a distinct advantage and will take advantage of it on Saturday.
The post Game Preview: Ohio State @ Illinois appeared first on The Buckeye Battle Cry: Ohio State News and Commentary.
Continue reading...
Joe Dexter via our good friends at Buckeye Battle Cry
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini — Memorial Stadium Saturday 12:00 PM ET
November football is what separates the contenders from the pretenders of college football. It’s why Ohio State has been in the hunt for a championship since the start of the 2013 season.
This point of the season is the valley of no return.
It’s hard to get out of the valley of the desert when your record is unscathed. Throw the wrench of a loss in the mix and all of a sudden all you’re hoping for is that there is enough water in the canteen to keep you alive until help arrives.
The Illinois Fighting Illinois understand the lay of the land.
A championship of any kind is out of reach. Yet, they own Memorial Stadium — the home turf in which they are 4-1 this season.
With their biggest weapon on offense back at full strength.
Meanwhile, Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer has the ultimate trump card. His returning weapon is bigger and better than Bill Cubit’s.
The Intangibles
TV: ABC (Sean McDonough, Chris Spielman, and Toddy McShay)
Sirius and XM: Channel 84
Radio: OSU Radio Network/97.1 WBNS (Paul Keels/Jim Lachey/Marty Bannister/Skip Mosic)
Online: WatchESPN | 97.1 WBNS (Audio)
Social Media: @IlliniFootball | @OhioStAthletics
Series Record: 66-30-4
EVANSTON, IL – NOVEMBER 29: Josh Ferguson #6 of the Illinois Fighting Illini runs past Kyle Queiro #21 of the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half on November 29, 2014 at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
Previewing the Illini
Illinois is a better program on and off the field with Bill Cubit as it’s head coach. Throw the Athletic Director situation aside — it’s impressive what the former Western Michigan head coach has been able to do with a team that should be completely fractured with what’s been going on the last few months.
How players have responded this year is further proof that the sliver in the side of this program was it’s head coach. The off the field issues were a representation of a lack of leadership at the top. The accusations of physical and mental abuse appear to be very valid.
The changes at the top would derail most programs under interim leadership. Players indebted to the previous regime could have easily shed their accountability when their head coach got sent to the side of the road.
Despite all of what went down in July and August, this team continues to leave it on the field.
That is reason enough to hire Bill Cubit as the permanent head coach. His leadership has turned around a program that could of hit rock bottom.
And now, The Illini are in a solid situation to win most ballgames.
Looking At The Tape Against Purdue
Josh Ferguson is the most dangerous offensive weapon in the Big Ten, that nobody is talking about.
The versatile play-maker is one of just four active players in Division I football to have 1,000 career receiving yards and 2,000 yards rushing.
So, why isn’t anybody talking about him?
Ferguson has missed nearly half of the season because of a shoulder injury and his impact has been missed.
A look at the tape from Saturday proves that. Ferguson was dangerous in the inside and outside run game. On passing downs, the senior lined up as a slot receiver and made plays. He gained his 133 yards on the ground through direct snaps, out of motion from the slot, and end around plays.
When Cubit’s pass-heavy offense stalled on the Purdue side of the field, it was Ferguson who opened things up in inside counters and traps. He also extended drives in the pass game on well-timed running back screens. With Ferguson in the lineup, the Illini are 5-1 this season.
Adding to the top-notch rushing attack is freshman running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn — who rushed for 180 yards and two touchdowns on Saturday. Despite being a power runner, Vaughn is athletic enough to make other big plays in the offense. It gives the Illini a true 1-2 punch in the rushing game.
Because of injury, Illinois’ passing attack has really floundered at times this season.
The Purdue secondary struggled to keep Bill Cubit’s skill players in check, which proves just how much players in big roles have improved.
Heading into last week, Wes Lunt was without his top two tight ends. Top receiver Mike Dudek has been out all season.
The team lacked so much depth at the position that they had to call upon true freshman Desmond Cain to be the team’s secondary receiver. A player who planned on redshirting and making an impact as a defensive back next season.
Heading into the Purdue game, the Illini had 46 dropped passes on the season.
Some of those mishaps are being cleaned up at a rapid rate though.
Cain had the best game of his career against Purdue on Saturday, catching his first touchdown, and pulling down 6 receptions. Now with two capable receivers in Cain and Geronimo Allison, the Illini passing offense is making huge strides.
Led by quarterback Wes Lunt, who might have the most misleading stat line of any quarterback in the country.
Because of the drops and inconsistencies in routes, his receiving yards and touchdowns are way down. The 6-5 junior is a great decision maker and has only thrown four picks on the season.
It’s safe to say though that he hasn’t faced the level of pressure that the Ohio State defensive line brings to the table.
Against Purdue, Quarterbacks coach and offensive play caller Ryan Cubit consistently put Lunt on the move in the pocket on designed roll outs. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was in part to get ready for the Ohio State defense.
Especially considering Lunt’s biggest weakness — reading man-to-man coverage. Which is the ultimate strength of the powerful Buckeye Silver Bullets.
Defensively, Illinois has struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, despite being one of the best run stopping units in the conference. That will play a major role on Saturday, as will game planning against an offense that they haven’t seen much of.
Especially when it comes to the decision-making ability of J.T. Barrett in the read option run game.
COLUMBUS, OH – NOVEMBER 7: Ezekiel Elliott #15 of the Ohio State Buckeyes scores on a 15-yard touchdown run in the second quarter against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio Stadium on November 7, 2015 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
Previewing the Buckeyes
Anyone that wants to doubt that Ohio State has the best coaching staff in the country needs to reevaluate how they interpret the game of football. In this day and age, we have forgotten just how important it is to win the close ones.
How impressive it is to find ways to win in the games that you are not dominated, when in all reality, you should be.
Urban Meyer continues to prove that on what seems like a week-by-week basis this season. As does his defensive staff, which have put together significant game plans that have led to huge wins.
That was the case on Saturday, when the Buckeye defense held Minnesota’s rushing attack to just 1.3 yards per carry. The Gopher rushing attack only saw two plays extended past four yards. What makes a performance like this a work of art is the ability to always walk on a tightrope.
And never completely fall off.
I realize that I’m in the minority, but I love the aggressiveness of this defense and it’s ability to control a game so well that it can overcome big plays.
The Buckeyes gave up some big plays, but they also held Minnesota to 9 yards or less on 7/15 drives.
On offense, there isn’t a more diverse unit in the country. A group that despite their flaws, finds enough ways to make plays to win. We saw that on Saturday night. It was not pretty, but Cardale Jones made the right plays at the right time to win.
Ezekiel Elliott has been doing that since he stepped into the starting role at running back.
Now this week, the read option games returns, after clicking at a high level against Rutgers. Expect much of the same against Illinois, who has athletic defensive ends, but have yet to prove they can out think a quarterback like J.T. Barrett in option reads.
COLUMBUS, OH – NOVEMBER 7: K.J. Maye #1 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers is forced out of bounds by Vonn Bell #11 of the Ohio State Buckeyes after picking up a first down in the fourth quarter at Ohio Stadium on November 7, 2015 in Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State defeated Minnesota 28-14. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
Debunking The Big Play
I love the dichotomy of college football and the stats it produces. Ohio State has the second best pass defense according to numbers, but there has to be some concern over the big plays that have been given up by the secondary.
Is it a major concern? No.
In a man coverage scheme, players in the secondary are going to get burned from time to time. Linebackers and safeties are going to make the wrong read. But the beauty of it is a good chunk of the time, athletes are going to make plays.
And that’s what this defense is — the most athletic group in college football.
Before this week, there was a lot of talk that the run defense has been soft for Ohio State. Though that talk has softened, the big play this year has proven other wise. Ohio State gave up zero runs over 20 yards in the first five games. Since then, they’ve only given up 5. Less than 1.4% of Ohio State’s run plays have been big plays.
Now, let’s take it to the 15 yard or more percentile. 5.6% of Ohio State’s runs against have been for 15 yards a more.
The passing game story is a little different.
Nearly 10% of opposing pass attempts have resulted in plays of 15 yards or more. When you break it down to just completions, more than 20% of opposing pass plays have turned into gains of 15 yards or more.
Let’s broaden the spectrum to bigger plays of 20 yards or more.
Opposing pass attempts have resulted in plays of 20 yards or more 7% of the time. If you narrow it down to just the completions, quarterbacks are connecting on big plays 14% of the time they connect with a receiver on a play.
Overall, Ohio State is giving up a rushing or receiving play of 20 yards or more just 3.7% of the time. Of the 618 plays the defense has been on the field for, 7.4% of those downs have resulted in rushing or passing plays of 15 yards or more.
Fans can believe whatever they want about the big play, but the numbers speak louder than the myth the eyes are selling you.
Three Key Matchups
Ohio State coaching staff vs. Josh Ferguson
The Swiss Army knife of Illinois’ offense will play a major role in Saturday’s game. Josh Ferguson is the Braxton Miller of the Illinois program and demands the respect he will get from the Ohio State coaching staff.
Bill Cubit has used him in so many ways this season that in-game defensive scheming will play a major role in being able to shut him down. Being able to adjust based on where he is on the field will play dividends at stopping any hopes of the big play.
Ferguson is a true threat and if the coaching staff takes him out of the game, it will be very hard for the Illinois offense to put points on the board.
Wes Lunt vs. The Secondary
Lunt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has all the tools and size (6’5″) to be a pro-style quarterback at the next level. His mechanics could use some work, but overall — he is pretty consistent with his throws.
One thing is clear — the Illinois coaching staff acknowledge that the ball in his hand presents the best chance of winning. 56% of Illinois’ offensive plays this year have been of the pass variety. That might change now that Josh Ferguson is healthy.
Still, Lunt is a huge key on Saturday. He will need to make plays on the run and if he can do it consistently, Illinois will give themselves a chance to win.
The Read Option vs. The Illini Front 7
Without question, this is the biggest match-up of the game. If Ohio State wants to run away with this one, it will be on the shoulders of J.T. Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott in the read option running game.
If Illinois is in this game, it’s because they have been able to make a handful of solid reads on the line of scrimmage to stop the powerful Ohio State offense when running the read option.
Stopping Ohio State consistently is going to be nearly impossible, even for a top 35 rated defense. The Illinois defensive line is very athletic, but hasn’t been able to put pressure on the quarterback. J.T. Barrett is too quick of a decision maker and Ezekiel Elliott is too physical of a back to be stopped in those situations.
I expect the biggest game of the year from Ezekiel Elliott and the Ohio State rushing game. They have a distinct advantage and will take advantage of it on Saturday.
The post Game Preview: Ohio State @ Illinois appeared first on The Buckeye Battle Cry: Ohio State News and Commentary.
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