Michael Citro
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College Football Playoff expansion talk premature with 12-team model still to come
Michael Citro via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Why are the powers that be entertaining 14 or 16 teams before even seeing how it works with 12?
News broke days ago that the College Football Playoff meetings produced conversations about expanding the playoff field from 12 teams to 14 or more. The weird thing to me about this discussion is that 2024 will be the first season in which we see how it works with 12 teams — or, to go even further, with more than four.
No kidding.
Right now, we can look at several instances of a four-team playoff and see how things shook out. There were good arguments for inclusion by teams that were left out. Even though Ohio State won the first College Football Playoff, there was an argument to be made that a different team should have played Alabama. It seems that four teams was creating almost more controversy about who should get in than when there was one national title game and only two teams got in.
However, we have no data points for an expanded field. I thought it was overly ambitious to jump over eight teams and go straight to 12. Some years, but certainly not most, you can make a reasonable argument for including teams that finish the regular season as low as eighth in the playoff. I don’t think there are many years, however, in which the nation collectively thinks the No. 11 or 12 team should compete for the natty.
Expanding it even further, to 14 teams as was discussed recently, seems ludicrous. when Selection Day 2023 came, here were the CFP Committee’s teams ranked after No. 8:
9 Missouri
10 Penn State
11 Mississippi
12 Oklahoma
13 LSU
14 Arizona
15 Louisville
16 Notre Dame
There are a few exciting teams in that field, but not one team that deserved a shot at the title.
Among the things discussed in terms of a 14-team playoff was the idea of the SEC and Big Ten getting as many as four automatic bids. That means the team that finished fourth in the league would have a shot at a national championship.
The fourth-place team in both conference had two losses in conference play. It seems odd to give a team a clean slate and a path to a championship when they didn’t even finish on the podium in their own conference.
Despite being an older fan who grew up on the pageantry and traditions of the bowl games, and finishing the year with both AP and UPI champions (sometimes different teams), I’ve always favored a small playoff with the top teams battling it out. But there is such a thing as watering down the product.
If that is indeed what is happening, might it not be better to gather some data on the 12-team version before worrying about whether or not it should expand?
Continue reading...
Michael Citro via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Why are the powers that be entertaining 14 or 16 teams before even seeing how it works with 12?
News broke days ago that the College Football Playoff meetings produced conversations about expanding the playoff field from 12 teams to 14 or more. The weird thing to me about this discussion is that 2024 will be the first season in which we see how it works with 12 teams — or, to go even further, with more than four.
No kidding.
Right now, we can look at several instances of a four-team playoff and see how things shook out. There were good arguments for inclusion by teams that were left out. Even though Ohio State won the first College Football Playoff, there was an argument to be made that a different team should have played Alabama. It seems that four teams was creating almost more controversy about who should get in than when there was one national title game and only two teams got in.
However, we have no data points for an expanded field. I thought it was overly ambitious to jump over eight teams and go straight to 12. Some years, but certainly not most, you can make a reasonable argument for including teams that finish the regular season as low as eighth in the playoff. I don’t think there are many years, however, in which the nation collectively thinks the No. 11 or 12 team should compete for the natty.
Expanding it even further, to 14 teams as was discussed recently, seems ludicrous. when Selection Day 2023 came, here were the CFP Committee’s teams ranked after No. 8:
9 Missouri
10 Penn State
11 Mississippi
12 Oklahoma
13 LSU
14 Arizona
15 Louisville
16 Notre Dame
There are a few exciting teams in that field, but not one team that deserved a shot at the title.
Among the things discussed in terms of a 14-team playoff was the idea of the SEC and Big Ten getting as many as four automatic bids. That means the team that finished fourth in the league would have a shot at a national championship.
The fourth-place team in both conference had two losses in conference play. It seems odd to give a team a clean slate and a path to a championship when they didn’t even finish on the podium in their own conference.
Despite being an older fan who grew up on the pageantry and traditions of the bowl games, and finishing the year with both AP and UPI champions (sometimes different teams), I’ve always favored a small playoff with the top teams battling it out. But there is such a thing as watering down the product.
If that is indeed what is happening, might it not be better to gather some data on the 12-team version before worrying about whether or not it should expand?
Continue reading...