A brief comaprison between OPS and BA

[Jaxbuck]

In another thread we talked about the value of BA as a tool to evaluate a hitters ability. Also discussed were strikeouts and their effect on offensive production. I think this years Reds team is the perfect example of the point I was making. I will show you what I mean and give my .02 on each stat as I do.

BA (total hits/total AB's) a flawed stat for this very reason. All hits have equal value when we all know single < double < triple < HR.

Reds team BA .276 7th in the NL.

K's. An out like any other with a special stigma attached to it. Some feel constantly putting the ball in play instead of K'ing will lead to more runs scored because it forces the opponent to field the ball and will therefore lead to more E's.

The Reds lead the universe in team K's.

OBP (Hits + Walks + Hit-By-Pitch) divided by (At Bats + Walks+ Hit-By-Pitch + Sac Flys). In english it's the single best indicator of how well a hitter performs the single most important task; not making an out.

The Reds are currently 3rd in the NL in OBP (.340)

SLG% Number of (Singles + [2 x Doubles] +[ 3 x Triples] + [4 x Home Runs]) divided by At Bats. The way BA should be measured as it gives more weight to collecting more total bases. I.E. a homerun is worth more than a single.

The Reds are 2nd in SLG% (.453)

OPS (On Base Percentage + Slugging Average) The single most important indicator of overall offensive success because it takes into account how well you don't make an out and what kind of damage you do when you get a hit.

Reds are 1st in the NL in OPS (.793)

Runs scored. What else do you say about this, its what they are here to do. At the end of the day weather it be small ball or HR derby how many runs do you score?

Reds are currently 1st in the NL in Runs with 490.

So lets see...

1st in K's
7th in BA
1st in Runs

3rd in OBP
2ns in SLG
1st in OPS
1st in Runs scored

Kinda tough for Marty, George Grande and company to still run out that tired ass argument when they cry about K's and sac flies all night doesn't it?

 

[Brutus1]

You can have all the offense you want, but if your pitching blows, you're going nowhere.

 

[Jaxbuck]

You can have all the offense you want, but if your pitching blows, you're going nowhere.

Exactly. Thats what is so maddening listening to Marty and company bitch about situational hitting and K's. If the Reds just had an average pitching staff they would be a WC contender. Instead they have the worst staff in the NL by far and probably only Tampa is worse in all of MLB.

Maybe its just me but I'm ready to kill Marty and George Grande for constantly bemoaning what is in fact the #1 offense in the NL while the pitching staff is worse than Colorado's. Absolutely drives me infuckingsane.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Q: What's a "comaprison"?

A: Where they incarcerate punctuation marks.

 

[sears3820]

From today's Dispatch:


OPS All-time Leaders
1. Babe Ruth 1.1636
2. Ted Williams 1.1155
3. Lou Gehrig 1.0798
4. Barry Bonds 1.0533
5. Todd Helton 1.0480


Just thought I would throw that out there.

 

[Sloopy45]

Jax: "All hits have equal value when we all know single < double < triple < HR."

I disagree. Hits do not have equal value, but not because of what kind of hit, but rather the time in which the hit is made. For example, a single with RISP in the 8th Inning of a tight game in the middle of a pennant race is way > than a May HR in the 8th Inning of a blowout loss.

I personally think there's a huge difference in the production of a .270 hitter when compared with a .310 hitter, if you watch or follow a team everyday.

OBP is a useful stat, and SLG (to a certain extent) is as well. I like the fact that baseball is focusing on those numbers more, but I don't think that throwing all the old measures out the window is the slant to take on it.

"Some feel constantly putting the ball in play instead of K'ing will lead to more runs scored because it forces the opponent to field the ball and will therefore lead to more E's."

There's something to be said for the amount of K's a hitter has, I'm sorry. I'll give you two instances of how important it is to NOT K in crucial situations: Aaron Boone & A-Rod, in Game 4 of '03 World Series & Game 5 of '04 ALCS, respectively. Both men had less than 2 outs with runners on 2nd & 3rd late in games that essentially would've iced both Series for the Yanks. Forget about a hit, just make a productive out (fly ball, ground ball) and there are two more trophies in the Bronx. The ONLY thing that could've derailed those rallies was a strikeout. And what happened? BOTH guys tried to pull the ball, and both men struck out. End of story, Marlins & Red Sox were the champs.

What's the only thing that can end a bases loaded, no-out rally? You got it: the strikeout. Making contact is crucial in baseball: the strikeout is the only method of making out that can never be construed as a 'productive out.' A Sac Fly scores runs and can advance runners. Ditto for ground balls. I'm sorry, strikeouts are meaningful.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I'm sorry, strikeouts are meaningful.

Never said they weren't meaningful, I just said an out is an out. If they are so bad how is it that the Reds are #1 in runs scored?

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree, but the numbers don't lie.

BTW the thing that will kill a no out bases loaded rally faster than anything is a GIDP not a K. Just ask the BA poster boy Sean Casey.

 

[Sloopy45]

Jax: "an out is an out"

Jax, an out is not an out. There are varying degrees of outs. A ground ball to the right side that advances a baserunner to 2nd or 3rd is a productive out. A sacrifice fly is a productive out. A ground ball that scores a runner from 3rd is a productive out. A strikeout is never a productive out.

"Productive outs" occur more frequently with a contact hitter who doesn't strike out 100 times a season.

"If they are so bad how is it that the Reds are #1 in runs scored?"

The Reds play in a bandbox. I would hope they're close to the top every year in runs scored. The 1991 Detroit Tigers were the same type of team: swing for the fences or K. Mickey Tettleton (131), Big Daddy Fielder (151), Travis Fryman (149), Milt Kuyler (92), Rob Deer (175), Pete Incaviglia (92), and Tony Phillips (95) all surpassed the 90 K plateau. They scored a ton of runs, but that doesn't necessarily make them a good offense, and certainly doesn't make them a good team.

"BTW the thing that will kill a no out bases loaded rally faster than anything is a GIDP not a K. Just ask the BA poster boy Sean Casey."

Ah, but a GIDP could result in a run (at least). And the chances of a GIDP in that situation is less likely if the Infield is in. You basically have to hit an Attem Ball to turn two.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Jax, an out is not an out. There are varying degrees of outs. A ground ball to the right side that advances a baserunner to 2nd or 3rd is a productive out. A sacrifice fly is a productive out. A ground ball that scores a runner from 3rd is a productive out. A strikeout is never a productive out.

"Productive outs" occur more frequently with a contact hitter who doesn't strike out 100 times a season.

I have no problem with that and over the course of a season it will add up to a few runs. I'll still take the high OPS/high K guy all day long because over the course of a season he will create more runs than a slap hitting singles hitter.

Marty and company love to point out the fact that Dunn almost never hits a sac fly. Tell you what, give me 9 Adam Dunn's in a lineup and you can have all the sac fly specialists you want. My team will score a boatload more runs.

The Reds play in a bandbox. I would hope they're close to the top every year in runs scored. The 1991 Detroit Tigers were the same type of team: swing for the fences or K. Mickey Tettleton (131), Big Daddy Fielder (151), Travis Fryman (149), Milt Kuyler (92), Rob Deer (175), Pete Incaviglia (92), and Tony Phillips (95) all surpassed the 90 K plateau. They scored a ton of runs, but that doesn't necessarily make them a good offense, and certainly doesn't make them a good team.

If being #1 in runs scored doesn't make a team a good offense what does? As far as the bandbox theory goes, if its all due to the ballpark why doesn't Colorado lead the league every year? No, the Reds play just as many games on the road as they do at home, it all averages out and the simple fact of the matter is that good OBP + good SLG% = lots of runs no matter how many times you strike out.

Ah, but a GIDP could result in a run (at least). And the chances of a GIDP in that situation is less likely if the Infield is in. You basically have to hit an Attem Ball to turn two.

Bottom line is still that 1 out is better than 2, a walk is better than an out, a single is better than a walk, a double is better than a single etc..

In your bases loaded scenario you now have 2 outs and at best 1 run home with the bases now empty. In my scenario you still have the bases loaded with 1 out and two more .850+ OPS guys coming up to do some damage.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

I have no problem with that and over the course of a season it will add up to a few runs. I'll still take the high OPS/high K guy all day long because over the course of a season he will create more runs than a slap hitting singles hitter.

What's really frustrating about it is the inability/unwillingness to do anything differently. If Dunn comes up with the bases loaded and one out, I'd like to see him shorten his swing and at least try to put the ball into play rather than continuing to swing for the fences.

Take for instance last Thursday. The Reds are trailing 5-4 in the bottom of the seventh, bases loaded, one out. Dunn strikes out. If he shortens his swing and at least makes contact, good things can happen. Whether its an error, a seeing-eye single, a bloop single, or a sac fly, its better than a strike out because the run at least has a chance of scoring. A pop out is equally as bad as a K. About the only thing worse than a strike out is a double play ball. Dunn's a flyball hitter. He's grounded into only three double plays this year. I know part of that's due to the fact he strikes out so much, but regardless, 55% of the balls he puts into play are flyballs, so there's not a tremendous likelihood of a DP ball. All I want is some sort of sign that he knows that we don't need a homerun at that point, but I just haven't seem that from him.

 

[Jaxbuck]

What's really frustrating about it is the inability/unwillingness to do anything differently. If Dunn comes up with the bases loaded and one out, I'd like to see him shorten his swing and at least try to put the ball into play rather than continuing to swing for the fences.

So you'd rather he make an out as opposed to a HR? Why screw around with it then, have your 40 HR guy bunt in that scenario.

Take for instance last Thursday. The Reds are trailing 5-4 in the bottom of the seventh, bases loaded, one out. Dunn strikes out. If he shortens his swing and at least makes contact, good things can happen. Whether its an error, a seeing-eye single, a bloop single, or a sac fly, its better than a strike out because the run at least has a chance of scoring. A pop out is equally as bad as a K.

I know this will dissapoint you but Dunn has the highest OBP of anyone on the team with RISP. In short he does the best job on the team of not making an out with runners in scoring position.

About the only thing worse than a strike out is a double play ball.

About? Is there actually a question in your mind that a DP is worse than a K with 1 out?

Dunn's a flyball hitter. He's grounded into only three double plays this year. I know part of that's due to the fact he strikes out so much, but regardless, 55% of the balls he puts into play are flyballs, so there's not a tremendous likelihood of a DP ball.

Might have something to do with all the BB he takes and his high OBP but George and Marty never mention that so I am not suprised you gloss right over it as well.

All I want is some sort of sign that he knows that we don't need a homerun at that point, but I just haven't seem that from him.

Again, I can only infer you would prefer a single to a HR.

And as far as all of you who like to put specific scanrios out there when disussing concepts that apply to a 500-600 AB season I just ask this; Were you whining for a productive out in Arizona when he hit a walk off grand slam a couple of weeks ago?

You don't want to start bashing on Dunn with me by using the same moronic arguments Marty and Grande roll out there, they just don't hold water.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

So you'd rather he make an out as opposed to a HR? Why screw around with it then, have your 40 HR guy bunt in that scenario.

Late in a one-run game, I would not be altogether upset of they were to have him bunt. If we were down by 4, I'd feel differently.

About? Is there actually a question in your mind that a DP is worse than a K with 1 out?

I phrased that poorly, I think. I meant that a double play is about the only thing worse than a strikeout. I guess it probably is the only thing worse.

Might have something to do with all the BB he takes and his high OBP but George and Marty never mention that so I am not suprised you gloss right over it as well.

You are correct. I was thinking of at-bats where the ball doesn't get put into play and only mentioned strikeouts. I absolutely should have included walks in this comment.

And as far as all of you who like to put specific scanrios out there when disussing concepts that apply to a 500-600 AB season I just ask this;

I don't have a problem with his strikeout number for the season, just in particular situations where a strikeout is one of the few things we don't need, i.e. bases loaded, no outs.

Were you whining for a productive out in Arizona when he hit a walk off grand slam a couple of weeks ago?

I wasn't whining about anything at the time. Lousy west coast games. I just can't stay up as late as I used to. Also, the situation was with two outs, in which case a productive out isn't particularly possible (unless he is thrown out trying to stretch a triple into an inside-the-park-homer.)

You don't want to start bashing on Dunn with me by using the same moronic arguments Marty and Grande roll out there, they just don't hold water.

I know I'm picking on Dunn, and its probably unfair to single him out. He certainly is not the biggest problem this team has. If we had an iota of pitching or were within 5 games of first place, I probably wouldn't even be participating in this discussion. Just a couple of years worth of frustration boiling up, I guess.

 

[High Lonesome]

strikeout is never a productive out.

well this is normaly true but not if you are an astros fan. When you have Brad ASSmus at the plate and you really don't want to end the inning with a double play so that you can get mike lamb to the plate to pinch hit for you with a runner ISP then you would sometimes like to conceed(sp?) the K in order to keep the inning alive. I understand this is backwards thinking but such is the life of a stros fan

 

[Jaxbuck]

Katt- I just reread my post and that came across waayy nastier than I meant it to(didn't mean to be nasty at all actually). I apologize.

Your opinion on Dunn is just as relavent as anyone elses, I made this post to just try and shed some light on a subject I feel is neglected by the media. I personally have a much greater enjoyment of the game since I opened my eyes to stats beyond BA/HR/RBI.

All of us Reds fans are frustrated with how things have been the past few years and unfortunately all that losing sometimes brings out the worst in everyone. I don't think there is a sane person out there that would argue the Reds woes are solely because of the offense. We all know its the horrific pitching and discussions of the offense are just nitpicking really.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

No offense taken at all. Your argument certainly has merit. I'm not completely sold on it yet, but there are certainly facets of your argument that I cannot very effectively dispute.