The race is underway, the bet will close mid-Tuesday morning.
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- Thread starter BB73
- Start date
One of my more favorite V-Bets of the year... not that I win or anything. But just following the Iditarod is fun!
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Piney;1670649; said:
I almost forgot about it this year, the race had started over the weekend, and I didn't realize it until yesterday.
The betting is now closed.
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Time for an update. Current.Standings (which can be misleading).
Everybody has to take a 24-hour stop and an 8-hour stop at locations of their choosing, so until those even out it's tough to tell who's really leading. There is an additional mandatory 8-hour stop which everybody has to take at White Mountain, 77 miles before the finish. The stops are for the dogs' safety, to minimize the risk of an overly aggressive (or overly tired and lacking in judgement) musher from running them too hard.
Most of the real contenders are currently in Takotna. They are taking a '24-hour' rest stop, which is actually 24 hours plus the time difference in the staggered start. They begin a couple of minutes apart, so the musher in bib #71 started more than 2 hours behind bib #1. To make that fair, at the 24-hour rest stop, the musher who started last can leave after exactly 24 hours, but the others have to wait 24 hours plus the amount of time that they left before the final musher started.
The bib diff column is calculated in comparison to #56 Neff, who has the highest number of the contending mushers I'll be tracking.
The ones who take the 24-hour rest at Takotna will probably zip right through Ophir, the next checkpoint (only a 25 mile leg); but almost all of them will stop at the next checkpoint, or on the trail (cabin or campsite) before they reach the town of Cripple, which is 59 miles past Ophir.
Here are what I consider the real standings, as of arrival into Takotna. Gatt and Cim Smyth are now in Ophir, 25 miles ahead of Takotna, and Baker has passed through Ophir (but I listed their arrival in Takotna to make it apples to apples). They arrived at Takotna behind the leaders, and only passed them due to taking a later 24-hour stop.
Place..Name....arrival at chkpoint..bib#-diff...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..King........Takotna..10:48 pm.....15...91....0 h 00 m.......7.94.............n/a
2..Neff........Takotna..12:34 am.....56...00....0 h 15 m.......7.83.............n/a
3..Schnuelle...Takotna..12:10 am.....35...47....0 h 38 m.......6.97.............n/a
4..Seavey, M...Takotna..11:48 pm.....19...82....0 h 51 m.......7.61.............n/a
5..Willomitzer.Takotna..01:13 am.....55...03....0 h 57 m.......7.94.............n/a
6..Mackey......Takotna..01:12 am.....49...16....1 h 09 m.......7.71.............n/a
7..Baker.......Takotna..12:01 am.....08..106....1 h 28 m.......8.82.............n/a
8..Gatt........Takotna..12:57 am.....20...80....1 h 58 m.......8.20.............n/a
9..Smyth, C....Takotna..01:58 am.....03..117....3 h 36 m.......8.93.............n/a
I ignored Haltmann and Steer, even though they're within 2 hours of the lead, since I think they'll fade.
I won't keep track of anybody else ahead of the real leaders on the trail unless I see that somebody's within a couple hours of the leaders after he takes his own '24-hour' rest. After somebody takes his '24-hour' rest, the 'diff' column behind the bib# will go to zero, and will no longer affect the net deficit.
Everybody has to take a 24-hour stop and an 8-hour stop at locations of their choosing, so until those even out it's tough to tell who's really leading. There is an additional mandatory 8-hour stop which everybody has to take at White Mountain, 77 miles before the finish. The stops are for the dogs' safety, to minimize the risk of an overly aggressive (or overly tired and lacking in judgement) musher from running them too hard.
Most of the real contenders are currently in Takotna. They are taking a '24-hour' rest stop, which is actually 24 hours plus the time difference in the staggered start. They begin a couple of minutes apart, so the musher in bib #71 started more than 2 hours behind bib #1. To make that fair, at the 24-hour rest stop, the musher who started last can leave after exactly 24 hours, but the others have to wait 24 hours plus the amount of time that they left before the final musher started.
The bib diff column is calculated in comparison to #56 Neff, who has the highest number of the contending mushers I'll be tracking.
The ones who take the 24-hour rest at Takotna will probably zip right through Ophir, the next checkpoint (only a 25 mile leg); but almost all of them will stop at the next checkpoint, or on the trail (cabin or campsite) before they reach the town of Cripple, which is 59 miles past Ophir.
Here are what I consider the real standings, as of arrival into Takotna. Gatt and Cim Smyth are now in Ophir, 25 miles ahead of Takotna, and Baker has passed through Ophir (but I listed their arrival in Takotna to make it apples to apples). They arrived at Takotna behind the leaders, and only passed them due to taking a later 24-hour stop.
Place..Name....arrival at chkpoint..bib#-diff...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..King........Takotna..10:48 pm.....15...91....0 h 00 m.......7.94.............n/a
2..Neff........Takotna..12:34 am.....56...00....0 h 15 m.......7.83.............n/a
3..Schnuelle...Takotna..12:10 am.....35...47....0 h 38 m.......6.97.............n/a
4..Seavey, M...Takotna..11:48 pm.....19...82....0 h 51 m.......7.61.............n/a
5..Willomitzer.Takotna..01:13 am.....55...03....0 h 57 m.......7.94.............n/a
6..Mackey......Takotna..01:12 am.....49...16....1 h 09 m.......7.71.............n/a
7..Baker.......Takotna..12:01 am.....08..106....1 h 28 m.......8.82.............n/a
8..Gatt........Takotna..12:57 am.....20...80....1 h 58 m.......8.20.............n/a
9..Smyth, C....Takotna..01:58 am.....03..117....3 h 36 m.......8.93.............n/a
I ignored Haltmann and Steer, even though they're within 2 hours of the lead, since I think they'll fade.
I won't keep track of anybody else ahead of the real leaders on the trail unless I see that somebody's within a couple hours of the leaders after he takes his own '24-hour' rest. After somebody takes his '24-hour' rest, the 'diff' column behind the bib# will go to zero, and will no longer affect the net deficit.
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Another update, after the real leaders (top-6 on this list) have all completed their 24-hour stop. I've switched the time to departure from the checkpoints, as it's a better indicator of who is leading for the last half of the race.
It's shaping up tp be a pretty good race. One hour is almost nothing of a lead in this race, which takes about 9 days. King has won it 4 times, Mitch Seavey once, and Mackey the last 3. Schnuelle and Neff have won the Yukon Quest recently, the next biggest sled dog race.
Mitch Seavey's son Dallas is the first musher to the halfway point of Cripple, but he hasn't taken his 24 hour stop yet, and will be several hours behind once he does. Same with Baker, whom Dallas Seavey beat into Cripple by 11 minutes, winning a $3000 prize in gold nuggets.
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...bib#-diff...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..King........Ophir....03:00 am.....15...00....0 h 00 m......11.28.............0 h 00 m
2..Neff........Ophir....03:28 am.....56...00....0 h 28 m......11.19.............0 h 15 m
3..Seavey, M...Ophir....03:52 am.....19...00....0 h 52 m......11.45.............0 h 51 m
4..Schnuelle...Ophir....04:05 am.....35...00....1 h 05 m......10.34.............0 h 38 m
5..Mackey......Ophir....04:18 am.....49...00....1 h 18 m......11.11.............1 h 09 m
6..Willomitzer.Ophir....04:26 am.....55...00....1 h 26 m......10.56.............0 h 57 m
11.Gatt........Ophir....05:46 am.....20...00....2 h 46 m.......8.20.............1 h 58 m
x. Baker.......Ophir....08:49 am.....08..141....8 h 10 m.......8.82.............1 h 28 m
It's shaping up tp be a pretty good race. One hour is almost nothing of a lead in this race, which takes about 9 days. King has won it 4 times, Mitch Seavey once, and Mackey the last 3. Schnuelle and Neff have won the Yukon Quest recently, the next biggest sled dog race.
Mitch Seavey's son Dallas is the first musher to the halfway point of Cripple, but he hasn't taken his 24 hour stop yet, and will be several hours behind once he does. Same with Baker, whom Dallas Seavey beat into Cripple by 11 minutes, winning a $3000 prize in gold nuggets.
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...bib#-diff...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..King........Ophir....03:00 am.....15...00....0 h 00 m......11.28.............0 h 00 m
2..Neff........Ophir....03:28 am.....56...00....0 h 28 m......11.19.............0 h 15 m
3..Seavey, M...Ophir....03:52 am.....19...00....0 h 52 m......11.45.............0 h 51 m
4..Schnuelle...Ophir....04:05 am.....35...00....1 h 05 m......10.34.............0 h 38 m
5..Mackey......Ophir....04:18 am.....49...00....1 h 18 m......11.11.............1 h 09 m
6..Willomitzer.Ophir....04:26 am.....55...00....1 h 26 m......10.56.............0 h 57 m
11.Gatt........Ophir....05:46 am.....20...00....2 h 46 m.......8.20.............1 h 58 m
x. Baker.......Ophir....08:49 am.....08..141....8 h 10 m.......8.82.............1 h 28 m
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These standings are about as straightforward as they get. The only thing a little tricky is that Ally Zirkle rested about 5 hours on the way to Cripple, so she zipped through there and her team won;t be quite as fresh as the others for the next leg.
Looks like a real battle between King and Mackey again.
Current.Standings
Looks like a real battle between King and Mackey again.
Current.Standings
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The race is really getting tight. King had an earlier lead of about an hour and a half, but guys are short-resting as they try to catch him.
It looks like 5 guys have a shot at winning, and they've all taken their location-optional 8-hour rest, so it's apples to apples from now on. I'll update Gatt in this post, since he hasn't left Nulato yet.
Everybody will have to make a mandatory 8-hour stop at White Mountain, 77 miles before the finish. So the race is to get there, which will take about 3 days from where they're now at. After the rest at White Mountain, it's about a 9 or 10-hour 'sprint' to the finish in Nome.
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..King........Nulato...07:20 am....0 h 00 m.......8.08...........0 h 00 m........4:07 at Nulato
2..Neff........Nulato...07:57 am....0 h 37 m.......7.63...........0 h 28 m........2:48 at Nulato
3..Mackey......Nulato...07:58 am....0 h 38 m.......8.17...........1 h 18 m........3:21 at Nulato
4..Seavey, M...Nulato...08:13 am....0 h 53 m.......8.25...........0 h 52 m........2:13 at Nulato
5..Gatt........Nulato...10:17 am....2 h 57 m.......8.48...........2 h 46 m........4:14 at Nulato
It looks like 5 guys have a shot at winning, and they've all taken their location-optional 8-hour rest, so it's apples to apples from now on. I'll update Gatt in this post, since he hasn't left Nulato yet.
Everybody will have to make a mandatory 8-hour stop at White Mountain, 77 miles before the finish. So the race is to get there, which will take about 3 days from where they're now at. After the rest at White Mountain, it's about a 9 or 10-hour 'sprint' to the finish in Nome.
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..King........Nulato...07:20 am....0 h 00 m.......8.08...........0 h 00 m........4:07 at Nulato
2..Neff........Nulato...07:57 am....0 h 37 m.......7.63...........0 h 28 m........2:48 at Nulato
3..Mackey......Nulato...07:58 am....0 h 38 m.......8.17...........1 h 18 m........3:21 at Nulato
4..Seavey, M...Nulato...08:13 am....0 h 53 m.......8.25...........0 h 52 m........2:13 at Nulato
5..Gatt........Nulato...10:17 am....2 h 57 m.......8.48...........2 h 46 m........4:14 at Nulato
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They're now trading the lead depending on when they take rests.
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey......Kaltag...12:35 pm....0 h 00 m.......9.33...........0 h 38 m........3:21 at Nulato
2..Gatt........Kaltag...02:45 pm....2 h 10 m.......9.92...........2 h 57 m........4:14 at Nulato
3..King........Kaltag...03:33 pm....2 h 58 m.......9.62...........0 h 00 m........3:51 at Kaltag
4..Neff........Kaltag...04:09 pm....3 h 34 m.......9.16...........0 h 37 m........3:37 at Kaltag
5..Seavey, M...Kaltag...05:25 pm....4 h 50 m.......8.66...........0 h 53 m........4:21 at Kaltag
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey......Kaltag...12:35 pm....0 h 00 m.......9.33...........0 h 38 m........3:21 at Nulato
2..Gatt........Kaltag...02:45 pm....2 h 10 m.......9.92...........2 h 57 m........4:14 at Nulato
3..King........Kaltag...03:33 pm....2 h 58 m.......9.62...........0 h 00 m........3:51 at Kaltag
4..Neff........Kaltag...04:09 pm....3 h 34 m.......9.16...........0 h 37 m........3:37 at Kaltag
5..Seavey, M...Kaltag...05:25 pm....4 h 50 m.......8.66...........0 h 53 m........4:21 at Kaltag
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Mackey and King are in a real battle.
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey....Unalakleet.09:48 am....0 h 00 m.......6.45...........0 h 00 m........6:16 at Unalakleet
2..King......Unalakleet.10:16 pm....0 h 28 m.......6.46...........2 h 58 m........3:47 at Unalakleet
3..Neff......Unalakleet.11:38 am....1 h 50 m.......6.37...........3 h 34 m........4:21 at Unalakleet
4..Gatt......Unalakleet.12:27 pm....2 h 39 m.......5.64...........2 h 10 m........4:45 at Unalakleet
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey....Unalakleet.09:48 am....0 h 00 m.......6.45...........0 h 00 m........6:16 at Unalakleet
2..King......Unalakleet.10:16 pm....0 h 28 m.......6.46...........2 h 58 m........3:47 at Unalakleet
3..Neff......Unalakleet.11:38 am....1 h 50 m.......6.37...........3 h 34 m........4:21 at Unalakleet
4..Gatt......Unalakleet.12:27 pm....2 h 39 m.......5.64...........2 h 10 m........4:45 at Unalakleet
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Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey....Shaktoolik.07:00 pm....0 h 00 m.......6.63...........0 h 00 m........2:52 at Shaktoolik
2..King......Shaktoolik.08:00 pm....1 h 00 m.......6.46...........0 h 28 m........3:15 at Shaktoolik
3..Gatt......Shaktoolik.09:25 pm....2 h 25 m.......6.61...........2 h 39 m........2:37 at Shaktoolik
4..Neff......Shaktoolik.11:44 pm....1 h 50 m.......5.37...........1 h 50 m........4:17 at Shaktoolik
1..Mackey....Shaktoolik.07:00 pm....0 h 00 m.......6.63...........0 h 00 m........2:52 at Shaktoolik
2..King......Shaktoolik.08:00 pm....1 h 00 m.......6.46...........0 h 28 m........3:15 at Shaktoolik
3..Gatt......Shaktoolik.09:25 pm....2 h 25 m.......6.61...........2 h 39 m........2:37 at Shaktoolik
4..Neff......Shaktoolik.11:44 pm....1 h 50 m.......5.37...........1 h 50 m........4:17 at Shaktoolik
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Looks like only 3 guys have a chance at this point. Koyuk is only 94 miles from White Mountain, where they all have to rest for 8 hours before heading out for the final 77 miles to Nome.
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey....Koyuk......05:58 am....0 h 00 m.......6.15...........0 h 00 m........3:10 at Koyuk
2..King......Koyuk......08:04 am....2 h 06 m.......5.98...........1 h 00 m........4:02 at Koyuk
3..Gatt......Koyuk......09:17 am....3 h 19 m.......6.21...........2 h 25 m........4:08 at Koyuk
Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey....Koyuk......05:58 am....0 h 00 m.......6.15...........0 h 00 m........3:10 at Koyuk
2..King......Koyuk......08:04 am....2 h 06 m.......5.98...........1 h 00 m........4:02 at Koyuk
3..Gatt......Koyuk......09:17 am....3 h 19 m.......6.21...........2 h 25 m........4:08 at Koyuk
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Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey....Elim.......01:06 pm....0 h 00 m.......6.97...........0 h 00 m........3:10 at Koyuk
2..Gatt......Elim.......03:47 pm....2 h 41 m.......7.70...........3 h 19 m........4:08 at Koyuk
3..King......Elim.......04:30 pm....3 h 24 m.......7.09...........2 h 06 m........1:40 at Elim
1..Mackey....Elim.......01:06 pm....0 h 00 m.......6.97...........0 h 00 m........3:10 at Koyuk
2..Gatt......Elim.......03:47 pm....2 h 41 m.......7.70...........3 h 19 m........4:08 at Koyuk
3..King......Elim.......04:30 pm....3 h 24 m.......7.09...........2 h 06 m........1:40 at Elim
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The leaders are all at the mandatory 6-hour stop at White Mountain. They'll be leaving soon and should finish tonight. There might be a change for second place, but it looks like Mackey has wrapped up his 4th straight win.
Nobody has ever won 4 in a row. The closest was the late Susan Butcher, who won 4 in 5 years. The overall record is 5 by Rick Swenson.
Place..Name....chkpoint.arrival.....net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey....White Mtn..08:43 pm....0 h 00 m.......6.04...........0 h 00 m........8:00 at White Mtn
2..Gatt......White Mtn..10:40 pm....1 h 57 m.......6.68...........2 h 41 m........8:00 at White Mtn
3..King......White Mtn..11:06 pm....2 h 23 m.......6.97...........3 h 24 m........8:00 at White Mtn
Nobody has ever won 4 in a row. The closest was the late Susan Butcher, who won 4 in 5 years. The overall record is 5 by Rick Swenson.
Place..Name....chkpoint.arrival.....net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit....last known rest
1..Mackey....White Mtn..08:43 pm....0 h 00 m.......6.04...........0 h 00 m........8:00 at White Mtn
2..Gatt......White Mtn..10:40 pm....1 h 57 m.......6.68...........2 h 41 m........8:00 at White Mtn
3..King......White Mtn..11:06 pm....2 h 23 m.......6.97...........3 h 24 m........8:00 at White Mtn
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