3yardsandacloud
Administrator Emeritus
2006 Illinois Fighting Illini Game Preview
written by: BB73, BuckeyeRyn, Buckeyeskickbuttocks, Bucklion, DaddyBigBucks, daddyphatsacs, Deety, FKAGobucks877, jwinslow, LordJeffBuck, osugrad21, OSUsushichic, PrincessPeach, and 3yardsandacloud
The Buckeyes are enjoying another week as the #1 team in the country, moving into November with a chance to become the first tOSU team to be #1 from "wire-to-wire" throughout the season. Such a feat would be very special; here are the only teams that have accomplished it in the AP poll, which started in 1936:
#1 from Wire-to-Wire in the AP poll
1943 Notre Dame - (first poll taken in October, after most teams had played 2 or 3 games; they actually lost their last regular season game and stayed #1)
1945 Army - (first poll taken in October, after most teams had played 2 or 3 games, this team was unanimous #1 in the final poll)
1999 Florida State - (first team to go from pre-season #1 all the way to the final poll)
2004 USC - (matched FSU's feat)
Note - ESPN is currently showing a graphic that includes 1971 Nebraska and 1972 USC in this category. Those teams were not truly "wire-to-wire", as neither team was #1 in the pre-season AP poll for those years. The pre-season AP poll started in 1950.
In marked contrast to the 2002 squad, this year's team has not had a game come down to the final minutes. In fact, the victory margin has been at least 17 points in every game so far. Ohio State has only had one other team start the season with 9 straight victories of 17 or more points. In case you were wondering how common that has been, here is a list of all teams since the AP Poll started in 1936 that were ranked in the top 10 after a 9-0 start, when every one of their wins was by at least 17 points.
Started 9-0, in AP Top-10, all wins by at least 17 points:
1945 Army - finished 9-0, closest games were 28-7 over Michigan, 32-13 over Navy
1971 Nebraska - finished 13-0, beat #2 Oklahoma 35-31, next closest game was 31-7
1973 tOSU - finished 10-0-1, all wins were by 21 or more, had 10-10 tie in Ann Arbor
1987 Oklahoma - finished 11-1 and #3 in the AP poll, lost Orange Bowl to Miami
1993 Florida St. - finished 11-1 and #1 in the AP poll, lost game 10 at Notre Dame
1995 Florida - finished 12-1, had a 35-24 win over FSU in game 11, whacked by Nebraska 62-24
2004 Utah - finished 12-0 and #4 in the AP poll, closest games were two 17-pointers
The first two teams on that list need to be included in any discussion of the best college teams of all time.
While many Ohio State teams have reached November with a perfect record, only four have finished the season unblemished. Here is a list of every Buckeye team that started 8-0, how they finished, and an indication of how dominant their wins were:
tOSU teams that finished with a perfect record
1944 - finished 9-0 (AP #2), 4 of 9 wins by less than 17, including TSUN
1954 - finished 10-0 (AP #1), 5 of 10 wins by less than 17, including TSUN
1968 - finished 10-0 (AP #1), 6 of 10 wins by less than 17, 50-14 over TSUN ("couldn't go for 3')
2002 - finished 14-0 (AP #1), 8 of 14 wins by less than 17, including TSUN
tOSU teams that started 8-0, didn't win game 9
1969 - finished 8-1 (AP #4), all wins by at least 27 points, lost 12-24 to TSUN
1974 - finished 10-2 (AP #4), 2 of 10 wins by less than 17, lost to MSU
1993 - finished 10-1-1 (AP #11), 5 of 10 wins by less than 17, lost to TSUN
1998 - finished 11-1 (AP #2), all of first 8 wins by 17 or more, lost to MSU
tOSU teams that started 9-0, didn't win game 10
1970 - finished 9-1 (AP #5), 3 of 9 wins by less than 17, lost to Stanford in Rose Bowl
1973 - finished 10-0-1 (AP #2), all wins by 21 or more, had 10-10 tie in Ann Arbor
tOSU teams that started 10-0, didn't win game 11
1996 - finished 11-1 (AP #2), 5 of 11 wins by less than 17, lost to TSUN
tOSU teams that started 11-0, didn't win game 12
1975 - finished 11-1 (AP #4), 3 of 11 wins by less than 17, lost Rose Bowl to UCLA
1979 - finished 11-1 (AP #4), 4 of 11 wins by less than 17, lost Rose bowl to USC
1995 - finished 11-2 (AP #6), 3 of 11 wins by less than 17, lost to TSUN
While the dominance of the 1969 and 1973 teams is apparent, so is their non-inclusion in the list of teams that finished with perfect records. Since it's an even-numbered year, this year's team has the advantage of playing TSUN in Columbus as they strive to finish the season at #1.
Since there has been back-to-back 44-point games, the question arises as to when was the last time that tOSU scored at least 40 points in 3 straight contests? The Buckeyes did that last year; against Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern. Prior to that, it had last been accomplished by the 1995 offensive machine, which also reached the mark in 4 consecutive games.
Turning our attention to what has happened in games against Illinois, one of the more interesting battles with the Fighting Illini occurred in 1980, when Dave Wilson was unstoppable in the second half, and threw for a record 621 yards in a 49-42 Buckeye victory. Illinois got 659 yards of total offense that day, which is the only time a Buckeye opponent got more yards than the 578 piled up by Minnesota last year.
Other great memories against the Illini have to include the tOSU record 314 rushing yards that Eddie George racked up in his 1995 Heisman campaign.
Another classic was the 1984 comeback, when a 24-0 deficit was wiped out when Keith Byars ran out of his shoe in the 'Shoe, with that TD making it 24-14, and another TD after Earle Bruce's successful decision to go with an onside kick got the Buckeyes within 24-21 at the half. The eventual 45-38 victory was pretty much a foregone conclusion at that point.
The 2002 overtime nail-biter, with incompletions in both sides of the end zone, was just another close call for our most recent National Champions.
Some other fairly recent contests include 48-0 and 41-0 whitewashes in Champaign in 1996 and 1998, respectively.
A tradition of 89 straight years with a tOSU-Illinois game was broken after the 2002 season. That started in 1914, which was the year that World War I began. To put 89 years into sports terms understood by fans in Illinois, that's longer than the White Sox waited to win the World Series, but not as long as the Cubs have been waiting.
1914 was also the first of 4 recognized NC's for Illinois. They won four of those between that year and 1927, all under Coach Robert Zuppke, who was there for 29 years, retiring just before Pearl Harbor.
But the Illini have had their ups and downs. They lost 15 straight to tOSU from '68 to '82, and 11 in a row from '35 to '45. Eleven straight losses also describes their entire 1997 season. After that they rebounded to end their 1999 season with a 63-21 demolition of Virginia in the Micron PC Bowl, and went to the Sugar Bowl as Big Ten Champion following the 2001 season.
Ron Zook had a rough first year as coach of the Illini. Not only did they go winless in conference play last year, they lost each game by at least 17 points. After Iowa beat them by 17 in the conference opener this year, they got a win at Michigan State on a field goal with 6 seconds left. Although they have lost 3 more Big Ten games since then, in the last two weeks they battled Penn State and Wisconsin until the end.
#1 from Wire-to-Wire in the AP poll
1943 Notre Dame - (first poll taken in October, after most teams had played 2 or 3 games; they actually lost their last regular season game and stayed #1)
1945 Army - (first poll taken in October, after most teams had played 2 or 3 games, this team was unanimous #1 in the final poll)
1999 Florida State - (first team to go from pre-season #1 all the way to the final poll)
2004 USC - (matched FSU's feat)
Note - ESPN is currently showing a graphic that includes 1971 Nebraska and 1972 USC in this category. Those teams were not truly "wire-to-wire", as neither team was #1 in the pre-season AP poll for those years. The pre-season AP poll started in 1950.
In marked contrast to the 2002 squad, this year's team has not had a game come down to the final minutes. In fact, the victory margin has been at least 17 points in every game so far. Ohio State has only had one other team start the season with 9 straight victories of 17 or more points. In case you were wondering how common that has been, here is a list of all teams since the AP Poll started in 1936 that were ranked in the top 10 after a 9-0 start, when every one of their wins was by at least 17 points.
Started 9-0, in AP Top-10, all wins by at least 17 points:
1945 Army - finished 9-0, closest games were 28-7 over Michigan, 32-13 over Navy
1971 Nebraska - finished 13-0, beat #2 Oklahoma 35-31, next closest game was 31-7
1973 tOSU - finished 10-0-1, all wins were by 21 or more, had 10-10 tie in Ann Arbor
1987 Oklahoma - finished 11-1 and #3 in the AP poll, lost Orange Bowl to Miami
1993 Florida St. - finished 11-1 and #1 in the AP poll, lost game 10 at Notre Dame
1995 Florida - finished 12-1, had a 35-24 win over FSU in game 11, whacked by Nebraska 62-24
2004 Utah - finished 12-0 and #4 in the AP poll, closest games were two 17-pointers
The first two teams on that list need to be included in any discussion of the best college teams of all time.
While many Ohio State teams have reached November with a perfect record, only four have finished the season unblemished. Here is a list of every Buckeye team that started 8-0, how they finished, and an indication of how dominant their wins were:
tOSU teams that finished with a perfect record
1944 - finished 9-0 (AP #2), 4 of 9 wins by less than 17, including TSUN
1954 - finished 10-0 (AP #1), 5 of 10 wins by less than 17, including TSUN
1968 - finished 10-0 (AP #1), 6 of 10 wins by less than 17, 50-14 over TSUN ("couldn't go for 3')
2002 - finished 14-0 (AP #1), 8 of 14 wins by less than 17, including TSUN
tOSU teams that started 8-0, didn't win game 9
1969 - finished 8-1 (AP #4), all wins by at least 27 points, lost 12-24 to TSUN
1974 - finished 10-2 (AP #4), 2 of 10 wins by less than 17, lost to MSU
1993 - finished 10-1-1 (AP #11), 5 of 10 wins by less than 17, lost to TSUN
1998 - finished 11-1 (AP #2), all of first 8 wins by 17 or more, lost to MSU
tOSU teams that started 9-0, didn't win game 10
1970 - finished 9-1 (AP #5), 3 of 9 wins by less than 17, lost to Stanford in Rose Bowl
1973 - finished 10-0-1 (AP #2), all wins by 21 or more, had 10-10 tie in Ann Arbor
tOSU teams that started 10-0, didn't win game 11
1996 - finished 11-1 (AP #2), 5 of 11 wins by less than 17, lost to TSUN
tOSU teams that started 11-0, didn't win game 12
1975 - finished 11-1 (AP #4), 3 of 11 wins by less than 17, lost Rose Bowl to UCLA
1979 - finished 11-1 (AP #4), 4 of 11 wins by less than 17, lost Rose bowl to USC
1995 - finished 11-2 (AP #6), 3 of 11 wins by less than 17, lost to TSUN
While the dominance of the 1969 and 1973 teams is apparent, so is their non-inclusion in the list of teams that finished with perfect records. Since it's an even-numbered year, this year's team has the advantage of playing TSUN in Columbus as they strive to finish the season at #1.
Since there has been back-to-back 44-point games, the question arises as to when was the last time that tOSU scored at least 40 points in 3 straight contests? The Buckeyes did that last year; against Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern. Prior to that, it had last been accomplished by the 1995 offensive machine, which also reached the mark in 4 consecutive games.
Turning our attention to what has happened in games against Illinois, one of the more interesting battles with the Fighting Illini occurred in 1980, when Dave Wilson was unstoppable in the second half, and threw for a record 621 yards in a 49-42 Buckeye victory. Illinois got 659 yards of total offense that day, which is the only time a Buckeye opponent got more yards than the 578 piled up by Minnesota last year.
Other great memories against the Illini have to include the tOSU record 314 rushing yards that Eddie George racked up in his 1995 Heisman campaign.
Another classic was the 1984 comeback, when a 24-0 deficit was wiped out when Keith Byars ran out of his shoe in the 'Shoe, with that TD making it 24-14, and another TD after Earle Bruce's successful decision to go with an onside kick got the Buckeyes within 24-21 at the half. The eventual 45-38 victory was pretty much a foregone conclusion at that point.
The 2002 overtime nail-biter, with incompletions in both sides of the end zone, was just another close call for our most recent National Champions.
Some other fairly recent contests include 48-0 and 41-0 whitewashes in Champaign in 1996 and 1998, respectively.
A tradition of 89 straight years with a tOSU-Illinois game was broken after the 2002 season. That started in 1914, which was the year that World War I began. To put 89 years into sports terms understood by fans in Illinois, that's longer than the White Sox waited to win the World Series, but not as long as the Cubs have been waiting.
1914 was also the first of 4 recognized NC's for Illinois. They won four of those between that year and 1927, all under Coach Robert Zuppke, who was there for 29 years, retiring just before Pearl Harbor.
But the Illini have had their ups and downs. They lost 15 straight to tOSU from '68 to '82, and 11 in a row from '35 to '45. Eleven straight losses also describes their entire 1997 season. After that they rebounded to end their 1999 season with a 63-21 demolition of Virginia in the Micron PC Bowl, and went to the Sugar Bowl as Big Ten Champion following the 2001 season.
Ron Zook had a rough first year as coach of the Illini. Not only did they go winless in conference play last year, they lost each game by at least 17 points. After Iowa beat them by 17 in the conference opener this year, they got a win at Michigan State on a field goal with 6 seconds left. Although they have lost 3 more Big Ten games since then, in the last two weeks they battled Penn State and Wisconsin until the end.
Date and Time
Date: Saturday, November 4th, 2006
Time: 3:30 EDT Kick-off
Location: Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Constructed: 1923 (Current renovation to be completed 2008)
Seating Capacity: 69,249
Playing Surface: AstroPlay
Broadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ESPN2: Sean McDonough (Play-by-play), Chris Spielman (Analysis), and Rob Stone (Sideline)
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (1460TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline)
2006 Illinois Fighting Illini Offensive Preview
Returning starters: 10
Coming in to this season, it's hard to find a team that had crashed and burned as far or as fast as the unfortunate Illini. Ron Turner went 0-11 in 1997, but steadily turned the program in the right direction. However, since peaking by beating Ohio State in Columbus en route to a Big Ten title and 10-1 regular season record in 2001, the Illini bottomed out completely again just 2 years later in 2003, going 1-11, and haven't had a winning season since that 2001 year. Last year the Illini started 2-0, including a win over bowl-bound Rutgers, and then summarily dropped their last 9. After putting 73 points up the first 2 weeks, they scored more than 20 only 2 more times, and less than 10 3 times, including just 2 against the Buckeyes. They finished 107th in scoring offense at just 17 ppg. They did a bit better gaining yards, especially on the ground, where they finished 47th nationally at 158.2 ypg, but they also struggled passing the ball, averaging just 196.5 ypg, good for only 87th. Their total yardage numbers of 354.6 ppg was only 72nd nationally. Especially disastrous for a team that didn't score much was their turnover margin of -1.0, which was 109th in the nation. Still, there was some cause for optimism, with the return of a senior quarterback, a bevy of good tailbacks, and plenty of experience returning, and Coach Zook and the Illini fans had hopes of a much improved 2006 offensively.
So has it happened? Well, the senior quarterback has been benched, but in favor of an electric freshman who makes some dazzling plays. The Illini are 3-deep at tailback, and have run several trick plays to burn opposing defenses, demonstrating quite a bit of creativity and a go-for-broke attitude that helped them upset Michigan State...but also lose to Indiana and Ohio. All of this has resulted in significant improvement of the offense as a whole. Their total output of 377.4 ypg is 47th nationally, significantly improved from a year ago. The running game has been strong, piling up 181.9 yards per game, on the cusp of the top 20 nationally at 21st. The passing game is still sputtering, at just 176 yards per game, good for only 81st, and slightly down from last year, but the trick plays have also helped spring big scores, which partly makes up for that. All of that is the good news. The bad news is that Illinois still has quite a bit of trouble "finishing", as evidenced by their 19.8 points per game, which still barely cracks the top 90. They also have committed costly second half turnovers that have cost them chances to win at least 2 Big Ten games. Basically, this offense can move the ball and has some exciting players, and when they get a bit more experience and ability to finish the 2nd half of games, this team will be dangerous.
Quarterbacks
QB #7 "Juice" Williams (6-2, 220, FR, Vocational HS, Chicago, IL)
Yes, "the Juice is loose" in Champaign, and the Illini are living and dying with an exciting but erratic freshman quarterback. Williams is an electric player, who can run, scramble, complete long passes downfield, and owns a cannon for an arm. He is also erratic, makes some poor decisions, and can be turnover prone, mistakes he will certainly improve upon as he gains more experience. He has completed an abysmal 42.6% of his passes, but he has thrown for 1252 yards and 9 TDs, with 8 INTs, for a rating of 103.5. He also leads the team in carries with 116, for 364 yards, 3.1 per carry. That doesn't sound exciting, but anyone who has watched this kid play know that he is exciting. Basically, Williams is dangerous every possession...to the defense and his own team.
Williams split time in week 3 against Syracuse, then took over for good in week 4. He has broken the 200 yard barrier just once, against Syracuse when he threw for 227 yards on only 9 completions with 2 TDs. Since then he averages about 160 yards or so, with a TD or two and an INT or two per game. He played well against Indiana (190 yards, 2 scores) but not very well against Penn State (156 yards, 2 INTs), and threw 3 picks against Iowa, a game where he completed just 9 of 32 passes. On the ground, he picked up 103 yards engineering the upset over the Spartans, and 96 against Ohio, but also had just 5 yards on 19 carries against Penn State. It will be interesting to watch how he does against the Buckeye defense, considering he struggled mightily in the 2nd halves of the games against Penn State and Wisconsin. He is a streaky player who can get on a big roll, but also can't seem to stop making mistakes once he starts. He'll have to improve on that this weekend.
The backup is senior Tim Brasic (#15) who started the season at the helm. He's thrown for 289 yards, but has been picked off 4 times with no TDs, and didn't inspire any confidence in his coaches during his initial starts this year. Though he has run for 71 yards and 2 TDs, he was unable to muster much of anything against I-A competition (after the season opener against Eastern Illinois) and quickly lost the job to the more exciting Williams. He remains a dependable backup, but his confidence has to be questioned in light of losing his job. He has not appeared since week 4, when he threw just 7 passes.
QB Rating: C-
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State QB
Williams (P/R): 83/195 (42.6%), 1252 yards, 9 TDs, 8 INTs, 103.5 rating; 116/364, 0 TDs.
Smith (P/R): 145/214 (67.8%), 1898 yards, 22 TDs, 2 INTs, 174.3 rating; 42/169, 1 TD.
Could Williams remind people of a young Troy Smith? Possibly, but clearly this year's Smith is what Williams should aspire to. He seems to have the talent to pull it off if he keeps working hard, especially on his passing, and continues to develop. He is definitely an exciting and dynamic player that must have Illini fans dreaming big in the future...Smith and the Buckeyes are dreaming big in the present...his incredible season (22/2) keeps rolling on.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
RB #5 Rashard Mendenhall (5-11, 205, SO, Niles West HS, Skokie, IL)
RB#30 Pierre Thomas Jr. (5-11, 190, SR, Thornton Fractional South HS, Lynwood, IL)
Here Thomas has gotten the bulk of the work (104 carries), but Mendenhall has seen more work the past 2 weeks, and both will get regular work. Mendenhall is an explosive player who is averaging an astounding 7.7 yards per carry. He gained 161 yards on just 14 carries against Penn State, but then followed that with just 26 yards on 8 carries against Wisconsin. He's only caught 2 passes in conference play, so he doesn't seem to be a huge threat out of the backfield.
Thomas is the senior and the player with the most experience. He had 2 100-yard games in the middle of conference play (110 against Michigan State, 126 against Indiana) but gained just 20 and 23 yards the previous 2 weeks. He will need to be more effective against the Buckeyes if the Illini are to have a chance to compete. Thomas has caught at least 1 pass in all but 1 game, so look for him to be an outlet for Williams in the flat.
Third on the chart is E. B. Halsey (#26) another senior who has been in the system and knows how to play. However after opening with 82 yards in week 1, he has just 29 total since, so he has not been a factor in conference play at all. It will be interesting to see if the Illini try and involve him more.
RB Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State RBs
Thomas: 104/545 yards, 4 TDs, 5.2 YPC; 11 rec/73 yards, 1 TD, 6.6 YPR
Mendenhall: 61/470 yards, 2 TDs, 7.7 YPC; 11 rec/151 yards, 1 TD, 13.7 YPR
Pittman: 163/894 yards, 10 TDs, 5.5 YPC; 8 rec/90 yards, 0 TDs, 11.3 YPR
C Wells: 82/391, 4 TDs, 4.8 YPC; 2 rec/16 yards, 0 TDs, 8.0 YPR
Thomas and Mendenhall are a nice 1-2 punch. Thomas is more elusive, Mendenhall more the between-the-tackles style. Neither of these players is in Pittman's class, but they fill their roles well and offer some stability to the offense.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR #21 Kyle Hudson (5-11, 165, SO, Mattoon HS, Mattoon, IL)
WR #4 Derrick McPhearson (6-0, 195, SO, Fork Union HS, Hyatsville, MD)
WR #8 DaJuan Warren (6-3, 195, JR, Southfield HS, Southfield, MI)
WR#29 Jody Ellis (6-1, 190, SO, Evanston Township HS, Evanston, IL)
The Illini will run a bunch of seemingly interchangeable pieces in there. Most are about the same size, and mostly sophomores. Hudson leads the group with 357 yards on 24 catches and 3 TDs. He's been a consistent contributor, catching at least 3 passes every game he has played in. His biggest output was 3 catches for 92 yards and 2 TDs against Indiana. Warren has been more sporadic, catching a bunch of passes in the middle of the season, but only 1 the past 2 weeks. McPhearson has just 7 catches all season. Ellis has 8, but none the past 2 weeks.
Amongst the rest of the players, Jacob Willis (#83) has been a threat. He has 287 yards and 3 TDs on 14 catches, including 91 yards and 2 TDs against Michigan State. He has 4 catches the past 2 weeks, and will probably see the field quite a bit Saturday.
That's about as deep as the Illini will go.
WR Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State WRs
Hudson: 25 catches, 357 yards, 3 TDs, 14.3 YPR
McPhearson: 7 catches, 157 yards, 0 TDs, 22.4 YPR
Warren: 14 catches, 181 yards, 0 TDs, 12.9 YPR
Ellis: 8 catches, 121 yards, 1 TD, 15.1 YPR
Ginn Jr.: 44 catches, 611 yards, 7 TDs, 13.9 YPR
Gonzalez: 41 catches, 621 yards, 6 TDs, 15.1 YPR
Robiskie: 19 catches, 255 yards, 4 TDs, 13.4 YPR
Illisois has some decent players who can get open and make an occasional big play. None of them are in the class of Ginn or Gonzalez. Robiskie has bigger numbers than all of the Illini except Hudson.
Edge: Ohio State
Tight Ends
TE #17 Jeff Cumberland (6-5, 240, FR, Brookhaven HS, Columbus, OH)
Fans of Ohio HS football will no doubt be happy for Cumberland, who has broken out and taken over at the TE spot. He has good size and is a capable blocker, and he has been a threat in recent weeks in the passing game. He has 9 catches in the past 4 weeks, including 4 against the Badgers last week. Look for him to be roaming the middle of the field, looking for a seam, in front of the hometown fans.
TE Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State TE
Cumberland: 10 catches, 139 yards, 1 TD, 13.9 YPR
Nicol: 9 catches, 116 yards, 3 TDs, 12.9 YPR
Cumberland has come on recently, and Nicol has started to look more comfortable as well. Both players are capable of blocking and catching an occasional pass.
Edge: Even
Offensive Line
LT #69 Akim Millington (6-6, 310, JR, Oklahoma HS, Wheaton, IL)
LG #64 Martin O?Donnell (6-5, 290, JR, Downer's Grove South, Downer's Grove, IL)
C #60 Ryan McDonald (6-4, 275, SO, West Ottawa HS, Holland, MI)
RG #67 Matt Maddox (6-4, 305, SR, Manasquan HS, Manasquan, NJ)
RT #76 Charles Miles (6-6, 320, SR, Harper HS, Chicago, IL)
This unit has a nice mixture of youth and experience, and is significantly improved from being terrible in 2005. The veteran right side of the line is stout, and Miles (a former DL) and Maddox have good size for run-blocking. The middle positions feature more nimble and athletic linemen, and Oklahoma transfer Millington is a bulldozer with some experience manning the left side. Pass blocking on the other hand has been more questionable. After giving up 32 sacks a year ago, they've given up 25 so far this year, though some of the blame for that lies with the freshman QB trying to do too much. They have shown some improvement, and have done well in the running game in spots, but are a far cry from being an elite unit yet.
OL Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State OL
Ohio State has a wealth of experience, and their offense has been firing on all cylinders most of the season. The Illini have some talent, and have made steady and significant improvement, but their unit as a whole is not quite up to the level of the Buckeyes.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Offensive Analysis
This offense is a work in progress, and coach Zook will live with the mistakes Williams makes now as he grooms him for the future. If the pieces keep falling into place around him, Williams could turn into a very good QB. The running game is pretty solid, but the passing game is very erratic, and none of the wideouts appear to be real difference-makers. The Illini have played very poorly in the 2nd half against Penn State and Wisconsin, and lost games to Indiana and Ohio on last-second FGs, all games they could have won. How much they have learned from this is hard to say, but suffice it to say they will be taking a big step up this week, and can't afford any more growing pains if they are to compete. Still, the Illini are at home, and have nothing to lose, so expect a good effort. This is their bowl game, so expect them to treat it like one. The Buckeyes will need to avoid being flat from the past 2 dominating performances and the showdown with the maize and blue looms in the near future.
Overall Offensive Rating: C-
2006 Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Preview
Returning Starters: 10
Ohio State travels to Champaign this week to take on an Illinois program that has been up and down this season. The Fighting Illini have shown flashes of turning the corner, especially against Wisconsin last week. Unfortunately they were not able to hang on against the Badgers. They managed to hold the Badgers to 99 net yards rushing on 41 carries (2.4 yard average), which is very good. Their secondary has played fairly well this season, and rank 3rd in the Big Ten in passing defense. They have been somewhat sluggish with their pass rush, and have allowed quite few teams to get into their red zone this season, which is never a good sign for a defense. Below is where the Fighting Illini stand in most of the major defensive categories in the Big Ten.
Points per contest: 26.1 (7th in Big Ten)
Total yards surrendered: 300.3 Yards Per Game (5th in Big Ten)
Total Passing yards surrendered: 175.7 YPG (3rd in Big Ten)
Total Rushing yards surrendered: 124.7 YPG (6th in Big Ten)
Defensive sacks: 14 on the season (9th in Big Ten)
Interceptions: 8 on the season (T-6th in Big Ten)
Red Zone Defense: Illinois is surrendering points 77.1% (27 out of 35) times that their opponents have gotten the ball inside their 20 yard line. 16 of the trips resulted in touchdowns, with the other 11 ending up in field goals. Only 2 teams in the Big Ten (Northwestern, Purdue) have allowed their opponents in the red zone more than the Fighting Illini.
Defensive Line
DE #91 Derek Walker (6-4, 270, SO)
DT #96 Chris Norwell (6-6, 290, JR)
DT #65 Josh Norris (5-11, 270, SR)
DE #95 Doug Pilcher (6-5, 260, R-FR)
Illinois will be led along the defensive line by sophomore end Derek Walker. Walker leads the Fighting Illini with 5.5 sacks and 7 QB hurries on the season. He has also tallied up 25 tackles, including 8 for a loss, along with 2 pass breakups. Walker is an emerging talent on the defense for the Fighting Illini. He earned Freshman All-American honors last season from the Sporting News, and is becoming a very nice piece of a nucleus that has the Fighting Illini seeing brighter days ahead. He is a fine athlete, who possesses excellent quickness off the end. If the Buckeyes aren't careful, he could give them more then they bargained for. The other end for the Fighting Illini will be freshman Doug Pilcher. On the season Pilcher has 19 tackles, including 4.5 for a loss. He also has 5 QB hurries, and 2 pass breakups this season. Pilcher is definitely the weaker of the two ends, look for the Buckeyes to run Pittman off tackle on him this week.
Leading the way on the inside at tackle will be junior Chris Norwell. On the season Norwell has 28 tackles, including 7 for a loss, along with 3 sacks. Norwell leads the Fighting Illini with 2 forced fumbles this season. Norwell is a 3 year veteran for the Fighting Illini in the trenches, and has excellent size. One liability for him is probably his height, which enables the opposing lineman to get leverage on him in run situations. Regardless, he is one of the more solid pieces along this defense front. The other tackle will be senior Josh Norris. On the season Norris has 29 tackles, including 4.5 for a loss, in addition to 2 sacks. He also has 2 QB hurries so far this season. Norris is a bit undersized for a tackle (5-11 270) and will probably be someone who the Buckeyes will try to expose this week.
DL Rating: C
Overall DL Analysis
All in all, this defensive line has shown improvement over the span of this season. They have pretty decent size up front, with the exception of Norris. The best player along this defensive front is Walker, I have a feeling that he's going to have a good game this week against the Buckeyes. Other than him, Illinois has an average at best defensive line. Look for the Buckeyes to really attack the side of Pilcher, he's someone who could really get picked on this week. From a sack standpoint, this unit has not developed a consistent pass rush this season. They'll need some of that if they want to slow down the men of Troy (Smith) this week.
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State DL
This one really isn't even a comparison. The Buckeyes played very well last week, even though they were missing their best defensive lineman in Pitcock. It seems like every week someone new is making a play along the defensive front, last week Jay Richardson stood out as someone who had a solid contest in my mind. The depth that OSU has up front is unbelievable; they have 6 guys along the line that have a sack this season. Illinois has a combined 12 sacks along the defensive line this season, including their backups. Ohio State has a total of 19 up front. Let's put it another way Quinn Pitcock (7) and Vernon Gholsten (5.5) have more sacks between the two than the whole Illinois line (including backups) does combined. The clear edge goes to the Buckeyes here.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers
OLB #44 Brit Miller (6-1, 245, SO)
MLB #47 J Leman (6-2, 240, JR)
OLB #40 Antonio Steele (6-2, 210, JR)
Leading the way at linebacker for the Fighting Illini will be junior MLB J Leman. Leman leads the Big Ten with 98 tackles on the season. Of the 98 tackles, 11.5 have gone for a loss (3rd in Big Ten). He has also tallied up 1.5 sacks, and forced a fumble this season. Leman is a Big Ten kind of linebacker, he's big, rangy, and tough. He has excellent instincts, and plays a mean brand of football. He is the best player on this Illinois defense, and is almost a lock for All-Big Ten honors. Getting the start at one of the outside linebacker spots will be junior Antonio Steele. On the season, Steele is 3rd on the team with 58 tackles, including 3 for a loss, in addition to a sack. Steele is a bit undersized for an outside backer, but makes up for it with his speed. He's the best pass coverage backer on the Illinois linebacker crew. The final outside linebacker slot will be manned down by sophomore Brit Miller. On the season, Miller has a total of 28 tackles, including 4.5 for a loss. Miller leads the Fighting Illini with 2 interceptions.
LB Rating: B
Overall LB Analysis
This unit isn't all that bad as a whole. Leman is one of the best linebackers in the Big Ten, the guy will be playing on Sunday's without a doubt. Miller is another talented piece on this unit. The thing that stands out the most about this crew is their ability to cover the pass. All can sit in a hook zone and step in front of a pass if the QB isn't careful. Troy had better keep an eye out for this bunch on Saturday
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State LB
Ohio State is improving every week from a linebacker standpoint. Between both schools Laurinaitis is the best linebacker, with Leman following in a close 2nd. Freeman continues to really solidify his hold at his spot, and I have also really liked what I've seen out of Curtis Terry. He's going to be a special linebacker before it's all said and done. As for Illinois, they've got some nice players in their starting 3, but lack any kind of depth to be compared to OSU. The Buckeyes get the clear advantage here.
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary
CB #18 Alan Ball (6-1, 175, SR)
FS #25 Justin Sanders (6-1, 205, JR)
SS #32 Justin Harrison (5-11, 215, JR)
CB #1 Vontae Davis (6-0, 185, FR)
Getting the start at one of the cornerback spots for the Fighting Illini this week will be senior Alan Ball. On the season, Ball has as total of 46 tackles, including 2.5 for a loss. In addition, he has an interception on the season, and leads the Fighting Illini with 10 pass breakups. Ball is the leader in the secondary for Illinois. He was voted the teams most valuable defensive back in 2005, and is someone who will really be tested this week when faced with the task of covering Ted Ginn. The other corner for the Fighting Illini this week will be freshman Vontae Davis. On the season, Davis has 39 tackles, including 1.5 for a loss. Davis has also intercepted a pass and broken up 4 others this season. If there is anyone who could get picked on this week in the secondary it probably would be Davis. It's almost unfair for a freshman cornerback to go up against a receiver like Anthony Gonzalez. Luckily for the Fighting Illini he has good tackling skills because he'll need them this week when he's chasing down Gonzo or Robinski.
Getting the start at strong safety will be junior Justin Harrison. Harrison has a total of 46 tackles on the season, along with 6 pass breakups. In addition, he has also forced a couple of fumbles and picked off a pass. Harrison is the most active of the two safeties. He's pretty solid against the run, and definitely has some pop in his shoulder pads. Harrison is probably the most talented player in the secondary for the Fighting Illini. Expect to see him stick his nose in quite a bit this week, especially on the shorter pass routes over the middle. The free safety for the Fighting Illini will be Justin Sanders. Sanders has a total of 13 tackles, and an interception this season.
DB Rating: B
Overall DB Analysis
Surprisingly this secondary has been stingy against the pass this season. Being #3 in the Big Ten against the pass is a stat that isn't too shabby, especially with the lack of pressure being applied up front by their defensive line. Ball and Harrison are a couple of very good athletes back deep for the Fighting Illini. They are capable of having big games this week against the Buckeyes. Outside of those two, Illinois doesn't have anyone else who you'll remember on Saturday, that is unless they are chasing down Ginn or Gonzo from behind
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State DBs
Ohio State has 18 interceptions on the season, Illinois has 8. Illinois has done pretty well in total defensive passing yards per contest. They rank 3rd in the conference, compared to Ohio State's 2nd place ranking. Ohio State has 3 potential NFL first day draft picks in Mitchell, O'Neal, and Jenkins. Illinois has only one player with this potential in Alan Ball. The clear edge goes to Ohio State here.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
All in all, this Illinois defense isn't really all that bad. Their strength lies in their linebacker crew, with the weakness being the defensive line. Their secondary has a couple of nice players who are capable of having big games against the Buckeyes, but they also have one (Davis) who is capable of having a pretty rough outing against the Bucks. Keep an eye on how he does against Gonzo and Robo early on in this contest. If the Buckeye receivers run wild, so will the Buckeye offense. Regardless, I think that Illinois has a nice defense once you get behind their line. Expect them to play the Buckeyes tougher than most would expect. If the Buckeyes aren't careful, this game could be one of those where were left scratching our heads at the end of the first half. In the end, Ohio States talent will prevail and allow them to pull away in the second half. The march to Arizona continues this week with a stop in Champaign, where I expect the Buckeyes to prevail by a healthy margin.
Overall Defensive Rating: B-
2006 Illinois Fighting Illini Special Teams Preview
Returning Starters: 5
Ron Zook, at least in his tenure at Illinois, does not seem to place the same emphasis on Special Teams play that we have seen out of the likes of Jim Tressel, Joe Paterno, Kirk Ferentz, and most of the other Big 10 coaches. Of all the "specialty" positions, only one is a new starter - the punter. Though he returns experience at these positions, Zook hasn't seen a lot of impressive play from the special teamers. The Illini coverage has been pretty suspect, so look for the Buckeye return game to really excel.
Special Teams
P #37 Kyle Yelton (6-0 180 FR)
PK#13 Jason Reda (6-1 200 JR)*
PR#26 E.B. Halsey (5-10 200 SR)*
KR #30 Pierre Thomas (5-11 210 SR)*
LS #49 Kyle Knezetic (6-1 215 JR)*
H#82 Frank Lenti, Jr. (6-2 185 JR)*
*denotes returning starter
Return Game
Halsey is the headliner of the Illini return game...that is, if Illinois had a return game. Halsey is averaging 5.1 yards per punt return. In 2006, he has returned 20 punts, and his season long is only 25 yards. While that 25 yarder is respectable, if you take that away, his ypp average plummets to a miserable 3.8. Halsey is much better returning kickoffs, averaging 18.5 yards per attempt, but his season long is only 25 yards. Illinois doesn't seem to have much of a "home run" threat in their return game. Thomas is listed as a kick returner, and handled most of the kick return duty in 2005, but has only seen 3 returns thus far (averaging 18.7 ypr). Mostly Derrick McPhearson (#4, 6-0 195 SO) has been deep with Halsey, and he has returned 8 kicks, and averages 18.4 ypr. Freshman Chris Duvalt (#15, 5-11 170) could see some action, and has returned four kicks for a total of 80 yards (20 ypr average) this season.
Returner Rating: D
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State Returners
There just isn't really a contest here. Illinois has yet to break any type of kick for longer than 27 yards, and their downfield coverage is horrible as well (their opponents are averaging over 5 yards more per return than the Illini). Ginn and Gonzo could well have a field day on Saturday, and Illinois just doesn't pose much of a big play threat on special teams. There is a small chance that Zook could try a gadget play, but the game would have to be close for it to matter.
Edge: Ohio State
Kicking Game
Reda has been the lone bright spot of the Illini special teams...and after his average (at best) 2005 campaign (13 for 20 in FG's), he has made 78.6% of his FG attempts this year (11 for 14), and all 19 of his PAT's. All three of his misses have come from 40+ yards. On kickoffs, he is averaging 60.1 ypk, but due to poor coverage downfield, his net average is only 37.9, and he has only 14 touchbacks out of 39 kicks. The punter, Yelton, is a freshman - and he plays like one. His potential is good, but so far he is only averaging 37.2 ypp, with only five downed inside the 20 (42 total punts). He has also had a punt blocked.
Kicker Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Illinois vs Ohio State Kickers
While Petrey had a shaky start to the 2006 campaign, he has been pretty reliable over the long haul. Trapasso is a much better punter than Yelton. Additionally, Illinois' exceptionally poor kick coverage has really hurt them, while tOSU, for the most part, has had extremely good coverage. While this game certainly will not come down to the kicking game, look for Ginn and Co. to have a very solid outing
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Special Teams Analysis
In sum, the Illini Special Teams play in 2006 has not been stellar. Their coverage on both kickoffs and punts has been terrible, and their blocking when receiving kicks and punts has been even worse. While hesitant to "trash" a team, Illinois play to date has not been laudable.
Overall Special Teams Rating: C-
Predictions
BB73's prediction: 34-13, Ohio State
BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 45-10, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 45-6, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: ??-??, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 42-0, Ohio State
daddyphatsac's prediction: 34-10, Ohio State
Deety's prediction: 42-7, Ohio State
FKAGobucks877's prediction: 41-6, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 41-7, Ohio State
LordJeffBuck's prediction: 41-0, Ohio State
osugrad21's prediction: 42-10, Ohio State
OSUsushichic's prediction: 41-7, Ohio State
PrincessPeach's prediction: 38-13, Ohio State
3yardsandacloud's prediction: 35-7, Ohio State
Last Week's Results (OSU 44 - Minnesota 0)
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual score versus predicted score. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
(67) FKAGobucks877's prediction: 41-6, Ohio State (0 + 0 = 0 + 67 last week) DNP 3 weeks (BGSU 23, MSU 20, Minny 19)
(77) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 48-10, Ohio State (4 + 10 = 14 + 63 last week)
(97) Deety's prediction: 42-7, Ohio State (2 + 7 = 9 + 88 last week) DNP 1 week (MSU 20)
(100) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 42-6, Ohio State (2 + 6 = 8 + 92 last week) DNP 2 weeks (NIU 21, Texas 44)
(109) PrincessPeach's prediction: 42-3, Ohio State (2 + 3 = 5 + 104 last week)
(111) BB73's prediction: 38-7, Ohio State (6 + 7 = 13 + 98 last week)
(119) jwinslow's prediction: 42-10, Ohio State (2 + 10 = 12 + 107 last week) DNP 1 week (NIU 21)
(121) BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 38-10, Ohio State (6 + 10 = 16 + 105 last week)
(126) OSUsushichic's prediction: 50-13, Ohio State (6 + 13 = 19 + 107 last week)
(130) Bucklion's prediction: 45-17, Ohio State (1 + 17 = 18 + 112 last week)
(131) daddyphatsac's prediction: 41-10, Ohio State (3 + 10 = 13 + 118 last week)
(132) LordJeffBuck's prediction: 41-0, Ohio State (3 + 0 = 3 + 129 last week)
(134) osugrad21's prediction: 45-10, Ohio State (1 + 10 = 11 + 122 last week)
(135) 3yardsandacloud's prediction: 38-10, Ohio State (6 + 10 = 16 + 119 last week)
Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed:
(117) Deety 97 + MSU 20 = 108
(129) FKAGobucks877 67 + BGSU 23 + MSU 20 + Minny 19 = 129
(140) jwinslow 119 + NIU 21 = 140
(165) DaddyBigBucks 100 + NIU 21 + Texas 44 = 165
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