Recent content by shouright

The two turnovers were essentially the difference. The first one was massive and resulted in a short field and an easy score, and the second one ended the game when Ohio State still had the ability to win. A turnover margin of 2 or more will almost always make the difference between teams that...

Ohio State -- Michigan EPA per Play: 0.19 (78th percentile) -- 0.13 (69th percentile) Success Rate: 53% (93rd) -- 45% (69th) Yards per Play: 7.05 (80th) -- 5.67 (46th) EPA per Dropback: 0.26 (74th) -- 0.31 (78th) EPA per Rush: 0.11 (67th) -- 0.02 (51st) Yards per Dropback: 9.21 (89th) -- 8.27...

What it all illustrates from my vantage point is the difficulty in predicting a game on the basis of a sample of just 11 previous games, comprised of opponents with highly varying quality. It's virtually impossible to locate a model game in which the teams involved have played a highly similar...

One of the best points (above) I've ever seen made on a football message board. When people watch games and see their team get stuffed on a run on 3rd and short they assume it means a great deal, whereas the meaning they're ascribing to it is driven primarily by the emotion they're experiencing...

And even then those pesky turnovers would get in the way a good bit of the time. Nobody could've predicted for example that OSU would be the beneficiary of a +4 turnover margin against Iowa. When a variable as strongly correlated with winning as turnovers is largely random, we're in trouble...

Now account for what will happen as a function of turnovers.

The outcomes of the nine games of the past three years of CFP play have been explained primarily by pass offense versus pass defense. Run offense and run defense have been relatively meaningless in those games. So while Alabama's 2020 pass offense was indeed better than anyone's this year, the...

Those are indeed the issues, and they can get by with the inadequate pass defense we've seen thus far this year when playing the kinds of weak teams they've been playing, but in the CFP, where far better passing offenses are faced, it stands a good chance of getting them beaten. In 2020 the...

The first half for Utah was very much like that in the Rose Bowl last year, which was why OSU was still the favorite at the half despite being down fairly big. Utah wasn't going to replicate in the second half what they did in the first.

The call was a corner blitz. Proctor has to know there that he's the last line of defense and has to make a sure tackle. Should've forsaken his individual style (aggressive tackling) for the benefit of the team, and that's why he was benched and rightfully so.

The author of that article needs to consider that when teams are ahead on the scoreboard such that they're very likely to win the game, their run-pass balance shifts in favor of the run with the goal of controlling the ball and running out the clock. Teams that are frequently ahead in that...

JSN replaces Wilson. When Wilson was out against Nebraska, JSN's output roughly doubled. When both Wilson and Olave were out against Utah, his output roughly tripled.

Looks like I'm definitely in the wrong place folks. I thought this was like most of the other team message boards I've been a part of, where critical thinking is encouraged and forms the basis for discussion. Enjoy your cult! :)

Amazing how well you think you know me when we've never met.

Why not? This is a message board. You could print out every post that's ever been made here and not be able to sell it for a quarter. There's nothing on the line here folks. Questioning the coach isn't a deadly sin.