Kiffin could fall head-first into a mud puddle and come up sparkly clean.
I don’t fully agree.
I do think that he’s been given a lot more leeway than most, in that regard you’re spot on. Particularly early in his career when he went from the NFL to the SEC to USC.
But he got left on the tarmac at USC, a verb for being fired immediately was created because of what Haden did to him. He did not emerge from that whole incident “sparkly clean” imo.
Then he became an OC, did well at that position (helping bama win the conference 3x and a national title once while completely updating Saban’s offensive philosophy), coached at FAU (where he was successful), and then he had success at Ole Miss given their history and expectations.
He did not “fail upwards” from Bama onwards (though he did not leave graciously at any of those stops besides FAU), but he moved up the ladder through on field success despite some (alleged) off field shenanigans that only seemed to come out from Tuscaloser and Oxfart after he left those Hell holes. Maybe those accusations are true but the fans were willing to overlook them because he was producing results on the field.
None of that guarantees that he will succeed in BR. And I wouldn’t be surprised that if he does fail here someone else will give him an opportunity because as you mentioned people just seem to keep giving him chances throughout his career, whether warranted or not.