Michael Citro
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Reassessing Ohio State’s remaining 2024 football schedule
Michael Citro via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Here’s what we know about the back half of the Buckeyes’ schedule midway through the season.
Every college football season is different. There are always surprises when it comes to teams performing better or worse than expected. Just about every blog and media outlet does some sort of power rankings or predictions piece in the preseason, trying to prognosticate how conferences like the Big Ten will shake out by season’s end. Some go even further, trying to predict each game on a team’s schedule.
As such, the midway point in a season is a good time to take stock of where teams are, assess the teams that are surprising us in both good and bad ways, and look at how the rest of the year might play out.
What follows are my rankings of the difficulty of Ohio State’s remaining opponents in 2024.
The Boilermakers have taken several steps backward, and because this game isn’t in West Lafayette, I’m not expecting any weirdness from this year’s meeting with Purdue. Provided the Buckeyes simply show up with the right attitude for this game after their slobberknocker at Penn State, I expect Ohio State to win by 30 to 50 points, depending on how well the starters play and whether the defense forces some turnovers.
With Northwestern on the road the following week, this wouldn’t qualify as a trap game either.
The Northwestern game is on the road, which could make for some early sluggishness, but the Buckeyes should pull away from what has been a mediocre Wildcats team in 2024. Despite their usual scrappiness, the Wildcats haven’t been at the level David Braun led them to a year ago.
Northwestern is 2-3 at home and 1-3 in conference play. It’s not difficult to see why that is. The Wildcats have been befuddled by the forward pass, ranking 106th nationally in passing defense and 124th in passing offense. Northwestern’s offense in general has been terrible, sitting at No. 119 in scoring offense, No. 104 in rushing, and No. 129 in total offense.
One thing the Cats have done well is stop the run, sitting 17th nationally, but that could just be because they’re so easy to pass against. That averages out to the No. 56 total defense in the nation, although Northwestern has been decent at preventing points, ranking 29th in scoring defense. It won’t be enough against Ohio State.
This week’s opponent provides some challenges for the OSU offense, and it will be interesting to see if the Buckeyes have fixed some of the problems that they had against Oregon.
Dylan Raiola started the season hot but has cooled in recent weeks, as has the Cornhusker offense in general. Nebraska has only scored 21 points in its last two games combined. Ohio State can control the Nebraska passing game if it can get pressure on Raiola, but that’s an area in which the Buckeyes struggled mightily against Oregon.
The Cornhuskers have a good defense, despite Indiana hanging 56 on them last weekend. Illinois was the only other opponent to put more than 10 on the board against them this season (31). While Nebraska hasn’t played a murderer’s row, one of the teams that failed to surpass 10 points was Colorado.
The Huskers are No. 19 nationally in scoring defense, 18 in total defense, and 16 in rushing defense, but sit 44th in passing defense. Will Howard might have to take the top off the Nebraska defense to loosen up things for the running game, especially without Josh Simmons on the offensive line.
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Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Aside from a hiccup against Bowling Green and a true road game against a team with a Lincoln Riley offense, the Nittany Lions have played lights-out on defense. Penn State has surrendered just 30 points in its other four games combined, with three of those games against the four power conferences — three Big Ten, one Big 12.
Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions have also scored 115 points in those four matchups and averages 34.2 points per game on the season, rising to No. 28 nationally in scoring offense. The game is on the road in Happy Valley. Ohio State has been able to score away from home on a good Oregon defense, but Penn State’s is better.
This is going to be a difficult game for the Buckeyes, especially if Jim Knowles can’t get the defense back on track and get pressure on Drew Allar, who is passing at a 70.5% completion rate this season.
Well, this is a surprise. While Indiana had much more room for improvement than regression, it’s fair to say no one outside of Bloomington could have predicted just how improved the Hoosiers would be in 2024.
Indiana has scored 40 or more points in six of its seven games this year, eclipsing 50 three times (twice in Big Ten play), and hung 77 on Western Illinois. The Hoosiers lead the country in scoring offense, are fifth in total offense, and rank 11th and 23rd nationally in passing and rushing offense, respectively.
But the team isn’t just outscoring its opponents. Indiana is seventh in scoring defense and total defense, fourth nationally against the run, and 24th against the pass. The Hoosiers haven’t yet played an offense as good as Ohio State’s, but the Buckeyes will be facing an offense and defense rated higher than Oregon’s.
It’s true that Indiana hasn’t played anyone better than…well, whoever is better between Northwestern, Nebraska, and UCLA…so far, so we’ll learn more about the Hoosiers in their final five games. However, they now have confidence and belief — two ingredients that can elevate a team.
The ink might not yet be dry on the national Coach of the Year award for Curt Cignetti just yet, but it would be shocking if he’s not a finalist no matter what else happens this season. The schedule sets up nicely for the Hoosiers, who don’t play Penn State and get Michigan at home. The team’s only remaining road game other than Ohio State is at Michigan State, with Washington, Michigan, and Purdue left at home.
It’s a special season at Indiana so far, and they’re going to be a lot tougher to handle than any of us could have predicted.
They don’t call it “The Game” for nothing. The Wolverines have had their issues this season, particularly at quarterback, but they are a physical team with a good defense and can play with anyone, regardless of how one-handed they may be. On top of that, until Ryan Day shows he can beat Michigan again, it seems appropriate to place That Team Up North at the top of the list.
This matchup will once again come down to which team runs the ball better. Ohio State has not been that team in recent years. It will have to be to reverse the recent trend against the bitter rivals from the mitten state.
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Michael Citro via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Here’s what we know about the back half of the Buckeyes’ schedule midway through the season.
Every college football season is different. There are always surprises when it comes to teams performing better or worse than expected. Just about every blog and media outlet does some sort of power rankings or predictions piece in the preseason, trying to prognosticate how conferences like the Big Ten will shake out by season’s end. Some go even further, trying to predict each game on a team’s schedule.
As such, the midway point in a season is a good time to take stock of where teams are, assess the teams that are surprising us in both good and bad ways, and look at how the rest of the year might play out.
What follows are my rankings of the difficulty of Ohio State’s remaining opponents in 2024.
6) Vs. Purdue
The Boilermakers have taken several steps backward, and because this game isn’t in West Lafayette, I’m not expecting any weirdness from this year’s meeting with Purdue. Provided the Buckeyes simply show up with the right attitude for this game after their slobberknocker at Penn State, I expect Ohio State to win by 30 to 50 points, depending on how well the starters play and whether the defense forces some turnovers.
With Northwestern on the road the following week, this wouldn’t qualify as a trap game either.
5) At Northwestern
The Northwestern game is on the road, which could make for some early sluggishness, but the Buckeyes should pull away from what has been a mediocre Wildcats team in 2024. Despite their usual scrappiness, the Wildcats haven’t been at the level David Braun led them to a year ago.
Northwestern is 2-3 at home and 1-3 in conference play. It’s not difficult to see why that is. The Wildcats have been befuddled by the forward pass, ranking 106th nationally in passing defense and 124th in passing offense. Northwestern’s offense in general has been terrible, sitting at No. 119 in scoring offense, No. 104 in rushing, and No. 129 in total offense.
One thing the Cats have done well is stop the run, sitting 17th nationally, but that could just be because they’re so easy to pass against. That averages out to the No. 56 total defense in the nation, although Northwestern has been decent at preventing points, ranking 29th in scoring defense. It won’t be enough against Ohio State.
4) Vs. Nebraska
This week’s opponent provides some challenges for the OSU offense, and it will be interesting to see if the Buckeyes have fixed some of the problems that they had against Oregon.
Dylan Raiola started the season hot but has cooled in recent weeks, as has the Cornhusker offense in general. Nebraska has only scored 21 points in its last two games combined. Ohio State can control the Nebraska passing game if it can get pressure on Raiola, but that’s an area in which the Buckeyes struggled mightily against Oregon.
The Cornhuskers have a good defense, despite Indiana hanging 56 on them last weekend. Illinois was the only other opponent to put more than 10 on the board against them this season (31). While Nebraska hasn’t played a murderer’s row, one of the teams that failed to surpass 10 points was Colorado.
The Huskers are No. 19 nationally in scoring defense, 18 in total defense, and 16 in rushing defense, but sit 44th in passing defense. Will Howard might have to take the top off the Nebraska defense to loosen up things for the running game, especially without Josh Simmons on the offensive line.
3) At Penn State
Aside from a hiccup against Bowling Green and a true road game against a team with a Lincoln Riley offense, the Nittany Lions have played lights-out on defense. Penn State has surrendered just 30 points in its other four games combined, with three of those games against the four power conferences — three Big Ten, one Big 12.
Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions have also scored 115 points in those four matchups and averages 34.2 points per game on the season, rising to No. 28 nationally in scoring offense. The game is on the road in Happy Valley. Ohio State has been able to score away from home on a good Oregon defense, but Penn State’s is better.
This is going to be a difficult game for the Buckeyes, especially if Jim Knowles can’t get the defense back on track and get pressure on Drew Allar, who is passing at a 70.5% completion rate this season.
2) Vs. Indiana
Well, this is a surprise. While Indiana had much more room for improvement than regression, it’s fair to say no one outside of Bloomington could have predicted just how improved the Hoosiers would be in 2024.
Indiana has scored 40 or more points in six of its seven games this year, eclipsing 50 three times (twice in Big Ten play), and hung 77 on Western Illinois. The Hoosiers lead the country in scoring offense, are fifth in total offense, and rank 11th and 23rd nationally in passing and rushing offense, respectively.
But the team isn’t just outscoring its opponents. Indiana is seventh in scoring defense and total defense, fourth nationally against the run, and 24th against the pass. The Hoosiers haven’t yet played an offense as good as Ohio State’s, but the Buckeyes will be facing an offense and defense rated higher than Oregon’s.
It’s true that Indiana hasn’t played anyone better than…well, whoever is better between Northwestern, Nebraska, and UCLA…so far, so we’ll learn more about the Hoosiers in their final five games. However, they now have confidence and belief — two ingredients that can elevate a team.
The ink might not yet be dry on the national Coach of the Year award for Curt Cignetti just yet, but it would be shocking if he’s not a finalist no matter what else happens this season. The schedule sets up nicely for the Hoosiers, who don’t play Penn State and get Michigan at home. The team’s only remaining road game other than Ohio State is at Michigan State, with Washington, Michigan, and Purdue left at home.
It’s a special season at Indiana so far, and they’re going to be a lot tougher to handle than any of us could have predicted.
1) Vs. Michigan
They don’t call it “The Game” for nothing. The Wolverines have had their issues this season, particularly at quarterback, but they are a physical team with a good defense and can play with anyone, regardless of how one-handed they may be. On top of that, until Ryan Day shows he can beat Michigan again, it seems appropriate to place That Team Up North at the top of the list.
This matchup will once again come down to which team runs the ball better. Ohio State has not been that team in recent years. It will have to be to reverse the recent trend against the bitter rivals from the mitten state.
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