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QB Justin Fields (2019-20 B1G Off POY, 2020 Silver Football, 2019 B1G CCG MVP, Pittsburgh Steelers)

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ShowMeBuck said:
He has everything he needs to stake his claim right in front of him.

He absolutely can make that claim if everything falls into place.

Just look at Burrow to see what can happen in one season.
Click to expand...

Burrow's rating of 133.21 in 2018 was worse than any rating any Ohio State passing leader has had since 2009, Terrelle Pryor's sophomore season.
Burrow's rating of 201.96 in 2019 is an NCAA all-time record
I have no intention of doing the math, but I'd bet that's the highest one-year jump in passer rating ever.

Before anyone accuses you of thinking that Justin will make a jump that big; I don't believe you're saying that. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Justin will improve. At this point a second-year-slump, which is common enough among quarterbacks to be a cliche, seems unlikely considering how hard Justin is working and the fact that he has a world-class qb-developer as his coach.

About 10 years ago someone on this board (one of the BKBs I think) asked me to analyze quarterback play and figure out when a quarterback made their biggest jump (year 1 to year 2 or year 3 to year 4 etc). One of the things I discovered from that analysis that I actually remember is that the QB that had the biggest drop by far for the decade or so that I analyzed was the TCU quarterback that neither I nor anyone else remembers that had LaDainian Tomlinson one year and no LT the next. In fact, a strong running game seemed to be a quarterback's biggest friend across the board, but the huge drop for LT's qb after LT left was the strongest anecdotal evidence of that.

The question this begs is, "Will Justin Fields suffer the same fate after losing JK Dobbins". The answer to that question depends on whether JK Dobbins gained 2000 yards because he's the second coming of LT, or JK Dobbins gained 2000 yards because he was a very good back who had a great offensive line (that is still here) and a passing game (that is still here) that opponents had no choice but to respect. I don't trust my own judgement in these matters all that much, but I do trust the people who do this for a living. To me, what the NFL said by picking JK Dobbins in the 3rd round speaks volumes. They may come to regret letting him fall that far, but what these people who analyze football for a living were saying is that they think a 3rd-rounder can do what JK did. They're saying that they think Ryan Day's offense doesn't need LT to have a strong running game.

Based on what Ohio State lost, and the athletic potential of what's coming in, combined with natural progression for a team transitioning from a 1st year HC and QB to the 2nd year; it is not at all unreasonable to expect the Ohio State offense to have record-setting potential this year. I don't know if Joe Burrow's 201.96 is in jeopardy, but it would not surprise me if it falls from the top spot. Field's posted a 181.42 while holding on to the ball too long and throwing the ball away a lot.

We don't yet know what a second year qb looks like under Ryan Day's tutelage, though JT did go from 135.3 the year before Ryan to 160.1 the one year he had Day as his position coach. Similar progression from Fields seems unlikely but not impossible, and it would shatter Burrow's record.
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
Burrow's rating of 133.21 in 2018 was worse than any rating any Ohio State passing leader has had since 2009, Terrelle Pryor's sophomore season.
Burrow's rating of 201.96 in 2019 is an NCAA all-time record
I have no intention of doing the math, but I'd bet that's the highest one-year jump in passer rating ever.

Before anyone accuses you of thinking that Justin will make a jump that big; I don't believe you're saying that. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Justin will improve. At this point a second-year-slump, which is common enough among quarterbacks to be a cliche, seems unlikely considering how hard Justin is working and the fact that he has a world-class qb-developer as his coach.

About 10 years ago someone on this board (one of the BKBs I think) asked me to analyze quarterback play and figure out when a quarterback made their biggest jump (year 1 to year 2 or year 3 to year 4 etc). One of the things I discovered from that analysis that I actually remember is that the QB that had the biggest drop by far for the decade or so that I analyzed was the TCU quarterback that neither I nor anyone else remembers that had LaDainian Tomlinson one year and no LT the next. In fact, a strong running game seemed to be a quarterback's biggest friend across the board, but the huge drop for LT's qb after LT left was the strongest anecdotal evidence of that.

The question this begs is, "Will Justin Fields suffer the same fate after losing JK Dobbins". The answer to that question depends on whether JK Dobbins gained 2000 yards because he's the second coming of LT, or JK Dobbins gained 2000 yards because he was a very good back who had a great offensive line (that is still here) and a passing game (that is still here) that opponents had no choice but to respect. I don't trust my own judgement in these matters all that much, but I do trust the people who do this for a living. To me, what the NFL said by picking JK Dobbins in the 3rd round speaks volumes. They may come to regret letting him fall that far, but what these people who analyze football for a living were saying is that they think a 3rd-rounder can do what JK did. They're saying that they think Ryan Day's offense doesn't need LT to have a strong running game.

Based on what Ohio State lost, and the athletic potential of what's coming in, combined with natural progression for a team transitioning from a 1st year HC and QB to the 2nd year; it is not at all unreasonable to expect the Ohio State offense to have record-setting potential this year. I don't know if Joe Burrow's 201.96 is in jeopardy, but it would not surprise me if it falls from the top spot. Field's posted a 181.42 while holding on to the ball too long and throwing the ball away a lot.

We don't yet know what a second year qb looks like under Ryan Day's tutelage, though JT did go from 135.3 the year before Ryan to 160.1 the one year he had Day as his position coach. Similar progression from Fields seems unlikely but not impossible, and it would shatter Burrow's record.
Click to expand...
Excellent post. Well done.

And yes, I certainly don’t expect Fields to make a Burrow leap but simply stated that Burrow showed it was possible.

Maintaining the OLine dominance is more important to me than replacing Dobbins per se. Getting Trey was huge and his health and someone else stepping up should be enough.

I think Fields himself has a lot of room to grow and I expect he will. The kid is just an unreal athlete at the QB position.

I’m fascinated to see what the WR group does and the idea of Hartline to mold these guys is the stuff that makes the off-season speculation so fun. If we are talking strictly potential this is the most gifted collection of WRs on one roster I can ever imagine. It’s absolutely stacked. Young and unproven sure, but the talent in that room is filthy.
 
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Ohio State right guard Wyatt Davis was selected as a first-team preseason All-American while quarterback Justin Fields and cornerback Shaun Wade were selected as second-team preseason All-Americans by the Walter Camp Football Foundation, one of the five voting bodies that determines consensus All-Americans at the end of the season.

Fields was also a second-team Walter Camp All-American last season, but comes in behind Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence in this year's preseason honors. The reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and a 2019 Heisman finalist, Fields is considered a co-favorite for this year's Heisman along with Lawrence.

 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
Burrow's rating of 133.21 in 2018 was worse than any rating any Ohio State passing leader has had since 2009, Terrelle Pryor's sophomore season.
Burrow's rating of 201.96 in 2019 is an NCAA all-time record
I have no intention of doing the math, but I'd bet that's the highest one-year jump in passer rating ever.

Before anyone accuses you of thinking that Justin will make a jump that big; I don't believe you're saying that. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Justin will improve. At this point a second-year-slump, which is common enough among quarterbacks to be a cliche, seems unlikely considering how hard Justin is working and the fact that he has a world-class qb-developer as his coach.

About 10 years ago someone on this board (one of the BKBs I think) asked me to analyze quarterback play and figure out when a quarterback made their biggest jump (year 1 to year 2 or year 3 to year 4 etc). One of the things I discovered from that analysis that I actually remember is that the QB that had the biggest drop by far for the decade or so that I analyzed was the TCU quarterback that neither I nor anyone else remembers that had LaDainian Tomlinson one year and no LT the next. In fact, a strong running game seemed to be a quarterback's biggest friend across the board, but the huge drop for LT's qb after LT left was the strongest anecdotal evidence of that.

The question this begs is, "Will Justin Fields suffer the same fate after losing JK Dobbins". The answer to that question depends on whether JK Dobbins gained 2000 yards because he's the second coming of LT, or JK Dobbins gained 2000 yards because he was a very good back who had a great offensive line (that is still here) and a passing game (that is still here) that opponents had no choice but to respect. I don't trust my own judgement in these matters all that much, but I do trust the people who do this for a living. To me, what the NFL said by picking JK Dobbins in the 3rd round speaks volumes. They may come to regret letting him fall that far, but what these people who analyze football for a living were saying is that they think a 3rd-rounder can do what JK did. They're saying that they think Ryan Day's offense doesn't need LT to have a strong running game.

Based on what Ohio State lost, and the athletic potential of what's coming in, combined with natural progression for a team transitioning from a 1st year HC and QB to the 2nd year; it is not at all unreasonable to expect the Ohio State offense to have record-setting potential this year. I don't know if Joe Burrow's 201.96 is in jeopardy, but it would not surprise me if it falls from the top spot. Field's posted a 181.42 while holding on to the ball too long and throwing the ball away a lot.

We don't yet know what a second year qb looks like under Ryan Day's tutelage, though JT did go from 135.3 the year before Ryan to 160.1 the one year he had Day as his position coach. Similar progression from Fields seems unlikely but not impossible, and it would shatter Burrow's record.
Click to expand...

Great stuff.

I honestly think Fields is just getting started. His touch was impeccable on intermediate/deep passes towards the end of last year, but it was clear he held the ball too long, out routes would often float, and he was hesitant to throw over the middle. All expected for a 1st time starter and no reason to think there won't be a big jump after Fields' experience and Day's help.

Regarding Dobbins, I think he is a fantastic runner and would've been close to a 1st if not for inconsistency in the pass blocking and catching game. Thankfully, the OL is the bedrock and I don't think the running game will have a big drop-off due to that. They will have to improve pass blocking though.
 
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1926Buckeyes said:
Great stuff.

I honestly think Fields is just getting started. His touch was impeccable on intermediate/deep passes towards the end of last year, but it was clear he held the ball too long, out routes would often float, and he was hesitant to throw over the middle. All expected for a 1st time starter and no reason to think there won't be a big jump after Fields' experience and Day's help.

Regarding Dobbins, I think he is a fantastic runner and would've been close to a 1st if not for inconsistency in the pass blocking and catching game. Thankfully, the OL is the bedrock and I don't think the running game will have a big drop-off due to that. They will have to improve pass blocking though.
Click to expand...

I see a major jump in Fields' game, although improving on the stats drastically on paper would be tough. As you said, his anticipation was off and he was not decisive enough, but I think that improves drastically with a year in the system. Plus his targets are just going to be filthy and he returns one hell of an OL. I am so excited to see Fields play this year.
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
The question this begs is, "Will Justin Fields suffer the same fate after losing JK Dobbins". The answer to that question depends on whether JK Dobbins gained 2000 yards because he's the second coming of LT, or JK Dobbins gained 2000 yards because he was a very good back who had a great offensive line (that is still here) and a passing game (that is still here) that opponents had no choice but to respect. I don't trust my own judgement in these matters all that much, but I do trust the people who do this for a living. To me, what the NFL said by picking JK Dobbins in the 3rd round speaks volumes. They may come to regret letting him fall that far, but what these people who analyze football for a living were saying is that they think a 3rd-rounder can do what JK did. They're saying that they think Ryan Day's offense doesn't need LT to have a strong running game.
Click to expand...
You forgot to include the fact that Fields posed a legitimate running threat--at least early on--and Haskins did not. When we ran the read option the defense could no longer think, "Fuck that noise, the RB is getting the ball"...if they did, they paid big time. So, I think that helped JK go from having barely a 1,000 yards (albeit splitting carries with Weber) in 2018 to over 2,000 yards in 2019. Even with Dobbins gone to the NFL, I think that Teague and Sermon will be a formidable-enough backfield to keep defenses from teeing off on Fields. Who knows, maybe Sermon or Teague ends up better than Dobbins.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
You forgot to include the fact that Fields posed a legitimate running threat--at least early on--and Haskins did not. When we ran the read option the defense could no longer think, "Fuck that noise, the RB is getting the ball"...if they did, they paid big time. So, I think that helped JK go from having barely a 1,000 yards (albeit splitting carries with Weber) in 2018 to over 2,000 yards in 2019. Even with Dobbins gone to the NFL, I think that Teague and Sermon will be a formidable-enough backfield to keep defenses from teeing off on Fields. Who knows, maybe Sermon or Teague ends up better than Dobbins.
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I think we are deeper this year to be honest.
 
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