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QB CJ Stroud (All B1G, 2022 B1G QB of the Year, All-American, NFL OROY, Houston Texans)

CJ is now the 3rd highest favored betting option behind Young and Corral. Couple huge games coming up and he'll be sitting in New York at the end of the year. Invite at least as long as he keeps balling.
 
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College football predictions: Second-chance expert picks for 2021 champion, playoffs and more

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Heisman Trophy front-runner
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State: We're all so desperate to find a legitimate Heisman candidate after all the preseason favorites flamed out that I've seen talk of Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams being a candidate after one start. Meanwhile, Stroud is at the helm of one of the best offenses in the country and the quarterback of a team that can win the Big Ten and reach the College Football Playoff. If he continues playing this way over the final half of the season while the Buckeyes face three teams currently ranked in the top 10, he's going to climb to the top of the leaderboard. -- Fornelli (Palm, Patterson)

Entire article: https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...rt-picks-for-2021-champion-playoffs-and-more/
 
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Good News

Due to Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall's "bad" game tonight, CJ Stroud is now within striking distance of taking over first place in passing efficiency this weekend.

McCall's passing efficiency for the season went down to 225.83 this evening.

If CJ throws 20 for 25 for 768 yards and 8 touchdowns against Indiana, that will bring his passing efficiency to 225.84.

Let's go CJ

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1. C.J. STROUD - OHIO STATE

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Preseason ranking: No. 1

Post-September ranking: No. 3

Stats: 104 of 157 passing (66.2%), 1,699 yards, 18 TD, 3 INT

The Buckeyes star established himself as the best quarterback in the conference and put himself back into the Heisman conversation. With him rolling, Ohio State looks like a playoff contender again and head coach Ryan Day is certainly getting a lot more out of his young signal caller in the post-Justin Fields era.
 
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I ran some DSA on Ohio State's passing game this year. What those numbers reveal implies the same thing your eyes tell you when you watch him play.

Overall:

For all pass attempts this season, thrown by anyone:

125 for 192 for 2113 yards, 20 TD and 4 picks for a rating of 187.756

Not bad

But then:

46% more yards than opponents give up through the air against all other FBS competition
49% more yards per attempt than opponents give up against all other FBS competition
45% higher passing efficiency than the combined passing efficiency by all FBS quarterbacks against Ohio State opponents

That is ridiculous
Those numbers are Heisman worthy
Troy Smith's differential numbers never approached that level

What's more, numbers that outlandish really skew people's idea of what kind of defense you faced.

Here is what happens to opponents' defensive passing efficiency if you remove the Ohio State game:
  • Minnesota goes from a ranking of 42 to 17 (25 spots)
  • Oregon goes from a ranking of 57 to 32 (25 spots)
  • Rutgers goes from a ranking of 90 to 53 (37 spots)
  • Maryland goes from a ranking of 91 to 54 (37 spots)
Tulsa actually moved UP from 67 to 63 by playing the Buckeyes, but that was because of his shoulder, I do not doubt. Since that game his LOWEST differential passing efficiency has been 1.62 (62% better than the average FBS QB that Maryland has faced).

The other outlier is Akron. They would only move up 5 spots (from 125 to 120) if they hadn't played the Buckeyes. A few things about that though:
  • At the bottom of the rankings (any statistical rankings) there are often large gaps between adjacently ranked teams. Moving 5 spots is due to a big change in PE.
  • This moves Ohio State's ENTIRE opposing defense ranking down substantially. As is, our opponents combined pass defense has a rating of 129.917, which would rank 59th (above average). If you back out Akron's numbers from the totals, the combined passing efficiency moves down to 124.229, which would rank 21 spots higher at 38th in the country in defensive passing efficiency.
  • Most importantly, CJ Stroud did not play in that game.
I will close with this little nugget. TTUN is currently ranked 39th in the country in defensive passing efficiency for FBS-Only games (all FCS games removed from stats for every team). By backing out the stats for Akron, you are left with the stats for all of the teams that CJ Stroud played. The upshot then, is that CJ Stroud is #2 in the country for Passing Efficiency in FBS competition, while having played defenses that collectively rank higher than TTUN in DPE

The quoted post covered just the Ohio State passing game on the season.

To review, the Buckeyes, overall, have a passing efficiency 45% higher than their opponents give up, on average, to their other FBS opponents.

CJ Stroud's passing efficiency is 54% higher than the opponents he's faced have given up to everyone else.

But that includes the games where his shoulder was obviously bothering him. If you back out the numbers for the Oregon and Tulsa games and look only at games vs B1G competition, CJ's passing efficiency is 95% higher than what those opponents have allowed vs everyone else (still FBS only).

As I said before, Differential Passing Efficiency of 1.45 is Heisman-worthy, or at least it was before the record for passing efficiency was broken in each of the past 5 seasons.
Differential Passing Efficiency of 1.54, which is CJ's personal number, is Heisman-worthy even in this era.
Differential Passing Efficiency of 1.95 is utterly unheard of. To maintain that he'll have to post a PE of 234.35 against Indiana. He did better than that against Rutgers, so it's conceivable.
 
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Can we slow down ..I’m not criticizing #7. He has IT. He has passed every open book quiz ..but he didn’t past his first test.(OU). Troy passed more tests than he failed as well as JT and JF. Cardale passed his with the help of a loaded roster. #7 has a loaded roster but can he pass the test, make a play when everything is breaking down around him and the D knows the book. He does that then we can judge. So far it’s an incomplete. Is he Eli in the clutch or is he Jay Cutler?
 
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Can we slow down ..I’m not criticizing #7. He has IT. He has passed every open book quiz ..but he didn’t past his first test.(OU). Troy passed more tests than he failed as well as JT and JF. Cardale passed his with the help of a loaded roster. #7 has a loaded roster but can he pass the test, make a play when everything is breaking down around him and the D knows the book. He does that then we can judge. So far it’s an incomplete. Is he Eli in the clutch or is he Jay Cutler?
cAn #7 pASS tHe TeSt?
 
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Can we slow down ..I’m not criticizing #7. He has IT. He has passed every open book quiz ..but he didn’t past his first test.(OU).?

35comp
54att
484yards
64.8%
3td 1int
41yards longest throw.

Kid put up almost 5bills at home in a game that became way too pass heavy early. A (rs) frosh shouldn't HAVE to be asked to shoulder (another joke there given his injury) the load every week. In all honesty, no one player should. By your logic Haskins himself "failed" given the Purdue debacle. Coombs and the defense was the issue with OU, NOT Stroud.

Now that we see glimpses of defensive balance possibly being re-established, we don't see a young QB pressing every damn throw. Instead he can now learn to play efficiently within himself and the structure of the offensive design.

Your football I.Q. and insight continues to lack.
 
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