If you could buy stock in...

[mross34]

If you could buy stock in a program other than tOSU, who would you buy for an investment you'd cash in on 5 years from now? 10 years from now? 20 years from now?

Say the stock price as of right now is the success and national respect the programs been given over the past 5 years.

The best investment might not be a team that wins a national title, but a team that comes the furthest.

For me:

Five Year Investment: North Carolina
Close second: Georgia Tech

One of these two programs could very well become the dominant force in the ACC over the next five years. Both have phenomenal coaches and have recently shown the ability to sustain success over short periods of time. I give the edge to North Carolina because of Butch Davis' prowess as a recruiter and his recent recruiting classes.

Ten Year Investment: UCLA

UCLA has been a sleeping giant for the past decade. Rick Neuheisel is there to stay and could easily start tapping into USC's stranglehold on West Coast recruits. The facilities, fan base, and recruiting talent pool are all there like few other schools that have found themselves outside the top 25. It's just a matter of time before this sleeping giant awakens, IMO.

Twenty Year Investment:

I thought about this for a while and couldn't come up with one. The Philly-NJ-NYC area is a fertile recruiting ground without a major team within 2 hours of it. For that reason, I could see a school like Rutgers, or even Syracuse, UConn, or Temple becoming a perennial top 25 team that far down the road.

I also thought about schools making the jump into a BCS conference and immediately BYU, Utah, UNLV (in the fastest growing city in America), and UCF came to mind.


Anyway, it's a slow day at work, and I thought this might stir up some interesting conversation. Would love to hear your guys' thoughts.

 

[Bucklion]

Hmmm...I disagree with Georgia Tech...I think teams will figure that offense out relatively quickly.

5 year investment: North Carolina is a good choice, as Butch should have them ready to ascend to the top of the ACC. Also Alabama, as I think Saban will keep the Tide at the top of the Western SEC for the next few seasons. Sell: Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Kansas, West Virginia, Cal

10 year investment: These are easier for me. South Florida: They're right now in the process of dealing with expectations, but given the fertile Florida recruiting ground and the pathetic Big East, they could make a big run at a consistent winner. Also Michigan State: I think Dantonio will instill the discipline that will keep the Spartans from being a flash in the pan. Finally, Oklahoma State: I think they will compete in the Big XII long term as long as Gundy stays there. Sell: Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida State, Penn State, Texas Tech

20 year investment: No way of really knowing anything that far down the line (who would have thought Miami and Notre Dame would suck now 20 years ago?). Traditional powers always seem to return though, so one has to figure that Michigan and Notre Dame will be relevant again by then

 

[Brutus1]

South Florida.

 

[redbenn]

Hmmm...I disagree with Georgia Tech...I think teams will figure that offense out relatively quickly.

5 year investment: North Carolina is a good choice, as Butch should have them ready to ascend to the top of the ACC. Also Alabama, as I think Saban will keep the Tide at the top of the Western SEC for the next few seasons. Sell: Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Kansas, West Virginia, Cal

10 year investment: These are easier for me. South Florida: They're right now in the process of dealing with expectations, but given the fertile Florida recruiting ground and the pathetic Big East, they could make a big run at a consistent winner. Also Michigan State: I think Dantonio will instill the discipline that will keep the Spartans from being a flash in the pan. Finally, Oklahoma State: I think they will compete in the Big XII long term as long as Gundy stays there. Sell: Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida State, Penn State, Texas Tech

20 year investment: No way of really knowing anything that far down the line (who would have thought Miami and Notre Dame would suck now 20 years ago?). Traditional powers always seem to return though, so one has to figure that Michigan and Notre Dame will be relevant again by then

5yr: Michigan State... I love what Dantonio is doing there, I think they are dipping into what used to be guaranteed Michigan commits... they could sneak a couple Big11 championships, not sure about NC's but, thats my safer bet

10yr: Agree with USF

20yr: FSU, Bowden long gone, again with fertile Florida... but really you can put any team here

 

[mross34]

5yr: Michigan State... I love what Dantonio is doing there, I think they are dipping into what used to be guaranteed Michigan commits... they could sneak a couple Big11 championships, not sure about NC's but, thats my safer bet

10yr: Agree with USF

20yr: FSU, Bowden long gone, again with fertile Florida... but really you can put any team here

Everyone talks about USF and UCF and FSU and Miami all coming back to prominence or to the forefront for the first time. I don't see how all these programs can flourish at the same time even if Florida goes in the tank.

 

[Jake]

Central Florida - one of the largest enrollments in the country, a brand new stadium, and a prime location. Don't look for UCF to stay in CUSA much longer.

 

[redbenn]

Everyone talks about USF and UCF and FSU and Miami all coming back to prominence or to the forefront for the first time. I don't see how all these programs can flourish at the same time even if Florida goes in the tank.

well Miami and FSU are in the ACC; USF is BE; UCF is CUSA (UF SEC)... so they all could theoretically dominate their respective conferneces. And there is enough talent in the south to stock those teams... maybe closing the borders to mainly Florida schools

 

[mross34]

well Miami and FSU are in the ACC; USF is BE; UCF is CUSA (UF SEC)... so they all could theoretically dominate their respective conferneces. And there is enough talent in the south to stock those teams... maybe closing the borders to mainly Florida schools

That's assuming all the kids in Florida want to stay in Florida. Florida is full of a lot of transplants from other areas of the country. You go down there and there's a ton of people who have allegiances to schools outside of the state. The same can't be said for most of the rest of the South, Atlanta excluded. Most of those Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana kids don't grow up rooting for Florida schools. Georgia, Bama, Burn, and LSU will still for the most part get their pick of in-state talents.

 

[redbenn]

That's assuming all the kids in Florida want to stay in Florida. Florida is full of a lot of transplants from other areas of the country. You go down there and there's a ton of people who have allegiances to schools outside of the state. The same can't be said for most of the rest of the South, Atlanta excluded. Most of those Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana kids don't grow up rooting for Florida schools. Georgia, Bama, Burn, and LSU will still for the most part get their pick of in-state talents.

true... but its warm!!

(i win)

 

[tundra1]

I'd buy Duke.

Yes, they stink.

But...they had
2 wins in 2004 (Clemson, The Citadel)
1 in 2005 (VMI)
0 in 2006
1 in 2007 (Northwestern),

so they've averaged 1 win per year over the last 4.

Even if they keep up their just-over-.500 pace of this year, that's quite a return.

Compare that to nearby UNC:
6 in 2004,
5 in 2005,
3 in 2006,
4 in 2007, for an average of 4.5 wins per year over the last 4 years.

So now it depends on what you think of "stock price".

Let's go with a multiple of wins.

If Duke averages 3 wins per year going forward, then UNC would need to average 4.5 * 3 = 13.5 games per year to have the same stock price appreciation. Regardless of what Duke does, UNC will have a hard time keeping pace if that's the way you define it.

Clearly at that point the strategy is to invest in some "penny stocks" that could hit big.

 

[LitlBuck]

I am really not sure if I would buy North Carolina because you just don't know if Butch is going to be around and if he leaves they might start to slide downhill again. I would buy Miami. They are really not that close to the other Florida schools and it is really a different scene. I think Shanahan will be able to recruit Florida and the rest of the country very good. I might buy MSU but I would have to get a guarantee that Dantonio would still be the CEO of football.

I would also by the other Florida schools just because of the weather and the athletes that they turn out. I don't think you get a real good education at some of those schools but then again some of the recruits are not looking for a good education. They just want to become a professional athlete. The traditional powers (USC, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame, etc.) would be very good buys for the long-term.

I cannot look out 25 years because I don't know if there will be an Earth to play on:(

 

[mross34]

I am really not sure if I would buy North Carolina because you just don't know if Butch is going to be around and if he leaves they might start to slide downhill again.

I completely agree. But I think Butch will be around for the next 3-4 years at least and then you have a couple UNC Larry Coker years to round out the 5 year period.

 

[redbenn]

Who I would short: WVU, Mizzou, Kansas

 

[AJHawkfan]

5 year plan - Alabama - No one is complaining about the money Saban's making. He has things headed in the right direction, and they will be tough to beat as long as he's there.

10 year - USF and Michigan State. Dantonio is building a great program. Since he and Ringer have been there, they are now my 2nd favorite Big Ten team.

20 year - Penn State - JoePa will probably still be there.....

 

[mross34]

Who I would short: WVU, Mizzou, Kansas

Cal, Texas Tech, Kansas, BC, Va. Tech, Auburn, and after next season USC.

I don't think USC is gonna tank, but I think as UCLA rises, USC will come down to earth somewhat.