Chris Holtmann (ex-tOSU Bball coach, HC at DePaul)

[jwinslow]

We'd all like to see more success in Men's BB.
The team is playing to the recruiting/talent level. Just not enough talent on the team to challenge for a B1G championship.
Holt has recruited 4 high-level recruits to date (with another 4 coming in next year).
Ohio is not producing enough quality recruits to field a high level B1G team, meaning
Holt needs to recruit nationally (not even just regionally) to field a high level B1G team.
This is something no OSU coach has done successfully.

Precisely. Find me Daequon Cook in the high school ranks during the Holtmann era

Now go find lighty, Oden, cook, koufos, mullen, Buford, sullinger, Thomas.

There is a very small amount of top end talent in the Midwest, and the actual powers gobble them up.

Gerd has done an interesting breakdown of Ohio high school prospects in Matta's first six seasons vs Holtmann's first six.

View attachment 31882

Exactly.

Look at what happened with Malaki Branham, which was a much more Thad Matta recruit. Or EJ Liddell.


And those guys aren't close (on recruiting site paper) to most of Thad's best guys.

The rare run of superstars gave way to Marc Lovings and Malaki Branhams, in terms of recruiting stardom.

01 Oden
02 Mullens
04 Sullinger
13 Buford
13 Koufos
14 Cook
16 Russell
19 Thomas
22 Conley
29 Bates-Diop
33 Lighty
34 Carton
35 Scott
38 Branham
40 Lyle
41 Sibert
41 Ross
....... 42 Thornton
44 Liddell
47 Turner
50 Diebler
....... 50 Okpara
50 Gaffney
51 Giddens
52 Williams
55 Grandstaff
58 Tate
...... 59 Gayle
...... 61 Sensabaugh
61 Loving
72 Williams
75 Kaleb Wesson

And while his talent (and health) declined down the stretch, when you look at the talent, it dropped off a lot on paper

09 - no signees
10 - monsters (Sullinger, Thomas, Craft, Lenzell, Sibert)
11 - scott/ross as your headliners? A lot of depth on paper, but not a lot of star power
12 - ADV only
13 - Loving and Slam Williams
14 - Russell, Bates Diop, Tate
15 - The lost class, Lyle, Giddens, Grandstaff, Harris, Mitchell. No real star power, lots of kind of good that didn't stay/work to get better (and a declining Thad, health wise)
16 - no one in top 70 (Funderburke the best)

4 of 5 years had next to no star power (09-13). Nice players but the decline is obvious in hindsight. And DAngelo left too fast to bridge the gap.

 

[jwinslow]

This is not a recipe for elite 8 consistency, even if they signed all of these guys.

Top recruits in Ohio, by year

27, 34, 42, 50 - 2016
... not osu but (Spellman, King, Cumberland, Nick Ward)
92, 128 - 2017 (Young)
27, 51, 126 - 2018 (Bazley, g-league)
39, 130 - 2019
21, 100 - 2020 (Meechie)
35, 67 - 2021 (Branham)
98, 116 - 2022

Bold = osu verbals, named in parentheses

 

[Bestbuck36]

It's even worse now with so much parity in college basketball where chemistry is now more important than even the highest level star players. This years team makes a deeper run if not for the Covid and injury mess fucking with the chemistry and schedule.

Without a true point guard also there is no team that wins the tournament and we didnt have what we needed this season although Wheeler played as hard as anyone could possibly expect him to

 

[NFBuck]

Gerd has done an interesting breakdown of Ohio high school prospects in Matta's first six seasons vs Holtmann's first six.

View attachment 31882

Well, yeah.

I say it all the time, Matta was a unicorn. He recruited at a level previously unseen here (or in most of the B1G, for that matter), was energetic and could coach. He took over a program mired in sanctions and managed to build a buzz around it. It helped that at the time, UK was down, IU was down (still pretty much are, though), scUM was a dried up husk with a bad coach that couldn't recruit and Wiscy hadn't yet reached the level they are now. Recruiting is a different animal than it was 12-15 years ago when Matta was reeling in all-star classes. One would think NIL could help, but I don't know that it sets tOSU apart in basketball like it does football because basketball will always be a very distant second to the boys in Ohio Stadium.

It is what it is. Holtmann has proven to be a good, not great coach. Maybe that changes in the coming years, maybe it doesn't. But, the bottom line is he leads the Scottie Pippen program in Columbus, wins more than he loses, gets to the tournament and (most importantly) runs a clean program. Hopefully with his best class to date coming in next year, he busts through that glass ceiling. If not and his team falls apart in Feb/Mar and makes early tournament exits, maybe his seat starts getting a little warm. But I suspect as long as he keeps a clean program and doesn't totally crater, he's not going anywhere...at least not for a couple/few more years.

I think a lot of people's perception is that we just need to move on from Holtmann and "find another Matta" without realizing how hard that is. tOSU's win % is 25th all-time in Div I (or whatever you wanna call it) and 4th in the B1G at .614. Holtmann sits at .656 after 5 years.

Aside from Matta, previous coaches in the modern-era have been a mixed bag:

Jim O'Brien (1997-2004): 7 Yrs, 133-88, .602, 4 Tournaments, 1 FF, 0 NC (We're all familiar with the issues under OB, so any success he had was tainted)
Randy Ayers (1989-1997): 8 Yrs, 124-108, .534, 3 Tournaments, 1 Sweet 16, 1 Regional Final, 0 NC (Won a lot in his 2nd & 3rd years with his predecessor's recruits, but even with absolutely stacked teams, didn't make a FF and fell off a cliff as his recruits filtered in)
Gary Williams (1986-1989): 3 Yrs, 59-41, .590, 1 Tournament, 0 NC (Williams was here just 3 yrs before taking the Maryland job and didn't even make the tournament his last 2. He recruited well enough to set up Randy Ayers for a couple of very good seasons early in his tenure. Williams did very well at Maryland and eventually won a NC 13 yrs after leaving Columbus)
Eldon Miller (1976-1986): 10 Yrs, 174-120, .592, 4 Tournaments, 0 NC (Miller had an up and down tenure. He recruited reasonably well and had just one losing season, but his BEST was 21-8 [.724] and he missed the tournament 6/10 yrs. He did win the NIT in 1986, his final season)
Fred Taylor (1958-1976): 18 Yrs, 297-158, .653, 5 Tournaments, 4 FF, 1 NC (Had a remarkable run from 1960-62 going 78-6 [.929], winning a NC and 3 FF's. He would also win the B1G the following 2 seasons, but miss the tournament. Take away that 3 year run and Taylor was 219-152 [.590] and made 2 tournaments in 15 yrs)

So, there ya have it. Winning at tOSU in basketball is not easy. Aside from Matta from 2006-13 and Taylor for 3-5 years in the early-60's, sustained success has been elusive. It's interesting that Holtmann's record is actually slightly better than Fred Taylor's, the guy who had the best multi-year run in program history and significantly better than everyone that came after Taylor save Thad Matta.

Is it impossible to find another coach to duplicate what Matta did here? Probably not. Is it likely? Definitely not. Programs that lack the tradition/prestige of the blue bloods absolutely can load up for good runs. Scott Drew just won a NC at friggin' Baylor. But...it took him 18 years to do so. In fact, he was a slow burn in Waco. It took him until year 7 to reach a sweet-16. But, he's in the midst of a rare extended (3 yrs or more) run of sustained success. Mark Few and Gonzaga are an anomaly. As are Jay Wright and 'Nova.

You can cut ties with Holtmann and roll the dice. Maybe, just maybe you find a young Jay Wright. But that's taking a big risk. The other option is to stick it out with Holtmann and hope he finds his grove like Scott Drew did. I don't know what the right answer is, but I'm hesitant to jump on the "move on" wagon because the risk of landing an Archie Miller or Shaka Smart is significantly higher than the likelihood of finding another Jay Wright or Scott Drew.

 

[Hetuck]

Or what? You're going to withhold your annual donation to the university? You're going to stop buying season tickets? You're not going to buy any tOSU paraphernalia? Because unless a select few who do the first thing stops, or most who do the 2nd stop, or almost everyone who does the 3rd stops, Holtmann isn't going anywhere.
You want tOSU to be more like tsun? If Holtmann made the Sweet 16 but threatened an opposing coach, struck an opposing coach, and called a ref a piece of shit, would you think that was ok? Because thinking that was ok would make us more like them.
You want to criticize the man? Fine. You want to act like you're entitled to Sweet 16 status? Not cool.

That’s a stupid reply. No, the proper thing to do if you want a winning basketball program is to replace a coach who isn’t getting the job done. Some of you appear fine with mediocrity. I’m just making an observation about what should be done if we’re striving for excellence.

 

[Bestbuck36]

It really all comes down to how willing Holtmann is to adjusting his style of play. He emulates Jay Wright and Villanova but hasn't had those types of players to mae t consistently effective. The past two seasons its one or two guys going one on one while everyone else stands and watches. That int going to cut it and we need to get back to being a really good defensive team. So, there are things that probably have to be tweaked according to the roster. This season coming up with a couple pieces in place and a great class coming in, will tell the tale.

 

[MaxBuck]

Some of you appear fine with mediocrity.

Describing Holtmann as mediocre is absurd. He's been a very good coach, though unquestionably not yet an excellent one.

I agree that his tenure so far here hasn't been stellar, and I agree we need to strive for excellence and championships. But I believe that it's too early to conclude that Holtmann can't or won't achieve those metrics.

 

[Don Muenz]

It really all comes down to how willing Holtmann is to adjusting his style of play. He emulates Jay Wright and Villanova but hasn't had those types of players to mae t consistently effective. The past two seasons its one or two guys going one on one while everyone else stands and watches. That int going to cut it and we need to get back to being a really good defensive team. So, there are things that probably have to be tweaked according to the roster. This season coming up with a couple pieces in place and a great class coming in, will tell the tale.

And teams that play that way are boring to watch, imho.

 

[ScriptOhio]

11W's take: What I won't do, however, is pretend slightly above average is good enough in Columbus, and you shouldn't either.

 

[cdiddy70]

We should kick the tires on Grant Basile from Wright State who ended the portal.

We need to get more athletic and find some guards that can penetrate, shoot, get to the rim, push the ball in transition.

Our TO/assist ratio was ridiculously bad.

I would tell Sueing and Towns to hit the road.

 

[Jake]

That’s a stupid reply. No, the proper thing to do if you want a winning basketball program is to replace a coach who isn’t getting the job done. Some of you appear fine with mediocrity. I’m just making an observation about what should be done if we’re striving for excellence.

Some of us don't live in a fantasy world where the only thing standing between OSU and excellence is "the right coach". I'm not going to post all of the reasons why that's an unrealistic expectation at OSU because they've been posted several times and guys like you refuse delivery. You don't actually refute them, you just "demand excellence".

 

[Jake]

11W's take: What I won't do, however, is pretend slightly above average is good enough in Columbus, and you shouldn't either.

Holtmann's winning percentage is higher than 120 years of Ohio State basketball. Thad Matta had an historic seven year run of success and suddenly that's the norm?

No, it's not. If anything the football program is even bigger now than during Thad's run, not to mention the improvement of other B1G programs since then, so thinking 5 B1G titles and a couple of final four runs every seven years should be the expectation is nonsense.

The Bucks have 8 B1G titles in the last 50 years. Thad won 5 of them in a seven-year span. That's called an anomaly, and we all loved it.

 

[scarletmike]

Holtmann's winning percentage is higher than 120 years of Ohio State basketball. Thad Matta had an historic seven year run of success and suddenly that's the norm?

No, it's not. If anything the football program is even bigger now than during Thad's run, not to mention the improvement of other B1G programs since then, so thinking 5 B1G titles and a couple of final four runs every seven years should be the expectation is nonsense.

The Bucks have 8 B1G titles in the last 50 years. Thad won 5 of them in a seven-year span. That's called an anomaly, and we all loved it.

And my luck was picking one of the two years in that run that they didn’t win to drive down to Indy for the BTT. Fucking Purdue…

 

[jwinslow]

And my luck was picking one of the two years in that run that they didn’t win to drive down to Indy for the BTT. Fucking Purdue…

Oh so you're the guy

 

[ScriptOhio]

I would tell Sueing and Towns to hit the road.

I wouldn't tell either one to "hit the road"; however...

1) Seth Towns really hasn't been healthy since he's been at Ohio State. He was a Freshman at Harvard in 2016, that would make him 24 - 25 years old. Considering his age, chronic health issues, hasn't really played meaningful minutes and/or up to his potential since 2017/2018 at Harvard, and the fact that he has (at least) a degree from Harvard and probably a post graduate degree from Ohio State; I'll say it's time for him get on with his life after college basketball (i.e. employment in his chosen career field).

2) Justice Sueing has to be 23 -24 years old and after 5 years in college should have graduated too. Maybe it's time for him to move on with his life after college basketball too. However, he has consistently scored in double digits and would add some Senior leadership on what looks like to be a predominantly young team in 2022/2023; if he wanted to return I'd welcome him back.